ADP Talk: Late January

 Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a tool that everyone in the fantasy game is using these days. For those of you who don’t know what ADP is, here you go:

ADP takes into account a whole bunch of drafts. You add them all up and come up with the average draft position of a player. As an example. Let’s say that in four drafts Matt Cain is taken 39th, 79th, 51st and 67th. You add up the four draft slots, which equal 236, divide by the number of drafts (in this case four), and come up with an ADP of 59 for Cain. Simply enough right?

One of the industry leaders in ADP data is Mock Draft Central. In what follows I will break down some of the early ADP numbers for 5×5 mixed leagues (there are 471 qualifying drafts under consideration here that took place from 1/12 to 1/26).

Today, I’ll talk hitters. Tomorrow, pitchers.

Joe Mauer (82.4 ADP) seems like quite the bargain if Buster Posey is coming in at #60 don’t you think? Both guys are coming back off injury plagued seasons, but last time I looked it was Posey who suffered the catastrophic injury, right?

Three of my favorites at the catcher’s position: Ryan Doumit (238.2), Chris Iannetta (239.1) and Carlos Ruiz (241.9). I’d take all three of those over Wilson Ramos (210.3).

Albert Pujols (2.4) is ahead of Miguel Cabrera (3.1). With word that Cabrera will play third base this year for the Tigers after the addition of Prince Fielder (14.9), there has been a groundswell of support for Cabrera to go #1 overall, so he’ll likely pass Pujols soon.

Mark Trumbo is #11 at first base right now. That’s gonna have to change. Trumbo doesn’t have a lock on a daily spot in the Angels lineup, and he’s coming back of a lower-body injury. I’d be hard pressed to have him in my top-20 at first right now.

Three second baseman are going in the top-25: Robinson Cano (9.9), Dustin Pedroia (19) and Ian Kinsler (24.7). The next time a second sacker is being called out is at 54.1 – Dan Uggla.

Ben Zobrist (83.2) is being taken behind Rickie Weeks (78.9). Really? Why? The last three years Zobrist has produced an average 5×5 line of .267-19-86-89-20. Weeks is well behind at .269-19-52-72-7. That’s not even close. Plus, Zobrist qualifies in the outfield as well.

Alex Rodriguez has an ADP of 60.6, rounds ahead of Mark Reynolds (119). I know it’s Arod, but does his production the last three years warrant the ADP difference here? He has a sizable average advantage – .277 to .228 – but that’s really it. Arod has hit 30 or less homers each of the past three years. Reynolds has had at least 32 HR each of the last three years. Given the health issues of Arod, he’s also averaged 96 RBI, 73 runs and eight steals, behind the average numbers of Reynolds (91 RBI, 87 runs, 12 steals). I’m just saying.

Looking at ADP, I can say without question that there is no one outside the top-11 right now that I would want starting for me at the hot corner in a 12-team league. Here are guys in the 12-16 range, any of them excite you? Ryan Roberts (196.5), Mike Moustakas (209.3), Lonnie Chisenhall (216.4), Chipper Jones (219.4) and Chase Headley (224.2). OK maybe Headley interests me, but you know I have a crush on him (see his Player Profile).

I’ve made the argument elsewhere, so I’ll say it again here. I know that Elvis Andrus (44.7) is a much safer bet than Dee Gordon (149.3), but I certainly wouldn’t mind waiting on my shortstop for 100 picks to select the Dodgers’ youngster.

Some early values at shortstop: Yunel Escobar (215), Ian Desmond (236.4), Alcides Escobar (240.1).

There are two guys in the top-10 that call the outfield home that I would be surprised if they returned first round value: Jose Bautista (4.2) and Jacoby Ellsbury (8.6).

You take Ellsbury at 8.6 and give me Andrew McCutchen at 26.3. Heck, I’ll take the value play of B.J. Upton at 67.3 if I’m looking for return on investment.

Michael Bourn (58.1) gets no respect. He’s the elite stolen base threat in the game, and because of his wheels he’s been a top-50 overall performer the past three years. Still, his ADP is outside the top-50 and he is being taken behind guys like Jay Bruce (40.4) and Desmond Jennings (55.9). That’s a mistake in my book. Speaking of Bruce, I know he is young and people love to think that he has another level to take his game, but why in the world is he being drafted ahead of guys like Shin-Soo Choo (65.3), B.J. Upton, Adam Jones (74.6) and Shane Victorino (74.8)? Hell, Lance Berkman (92.4) was better than Bruce last year and he also qualifies at first base.

Bruce: .256-32-97-84-8
Lance: .301-31-94-90-2

If all this ADP talk has you excited next week is going to be huge for you. I’ll release my 2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Guide in the coming days. That’s when the real fun gets going.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: ADP, Average Draft Position, MockDraftCentral

Around the Horn: January 25th, 2012

YouTube has been a disaster today – really, ever since they merged with Google things haven’t worked right, at least for me. Eventually, there will be a video discussing the below topics – that is if I can ever get my video loaded up on YouTube.

(1) Prince Fielder to the Tigers. What are the implications for him and Miguel Cabrera?

(2) Wilson Betemit to the Orioles.

(3) Bartolo Colon to the A’s.

(4) Yoenis Cespedes ready to find a team.

(5) Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt searching for teams.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Athletics, Bartolo Colon, Edwin Jackson, Marlins, Miguel Cabrera, Orioles, Prince Fielder, Red Sox, Roy Oswalt, Tigers, Wilson Betemit, Yoenis Cespedes

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy tied for the NL lead last year with 21 victories. You know that I’m not a huge fan of win-loss records when it comes to defining a pitcher, but when a guy goes 21-4 – Clayton Kershaw went 21-5 – you have to pay attention. So why is it that some fantasy baseball players are taking Daniel Hudson before they look Ian Kennedy’s way  at the draft table in 2012? That’s a very good question. Perhaps they think, as I will argue, that Kennedy has little chance of replicating his 2011 effort.

Some facts about Kennedy’s 2011 season.

Kennedy tied for the NL lead in wins.

Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA. Only seven pitchers in the NL bettered that mark.

Kennedy struck out 198 batters. Only seven NL pitchers had more.

Kennedy posted a 1.08 WHIP. Only five NL hurlers had a better mark.

Kennedy had a .227 BAA. Only four NL hurlers were tougher to hit.

Kennedy tossed 222 innings. Only four NL hurlers threw more innings.

All of that certainly makes Kennedy seem like an elite hurler, does it not?

The strikeouts are legit. Over the last two years his K/9 mark has been 7.79 and 8.03. When a pitcher does that in more than 400-innings I’m buying it.
One of the main keys to his surge from solid to dominating last year was the fact that he stopped beating himself. Over his first 253.2 big league innings he walked 3.80 batters per nine innings, about a half batter above the big league average. Last year he chopped that number down like a lumberjack whacking weeds as his BB/9 mark shrank to 2.23. It’s hard to know if we should trust his work last season completely, an in truth, I don’t. Pitchers just don’t cut a batter from their walk rate overnight (his rate was 3.25 in 2010). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give back some of those gains. Moreover, I’d feel more comfortable expecting a BB/9 mark closer to his 2010 rate than his mark from 2011.

Kennedy is as run of the mill as it gets when we talk about GB/FB ratios. In fact, he’s never posted a league average mark of 1.10 (last year’s 0.98 rate was a career best). I will give Kennedy credit for cutting the fly ball rate a bit last year, he was three percentage points below his career norm, but unfortunately most of those batted balls ended up as line drives instead of ground balls. If he keeps that trend up in 2012 you’d have to think he would allow more hits than he did last season. In addition, his left on base percentage of 79.2 percent was huge (it was the 9th highest mark in baseball). It was four percent better than his rate from 2010 and about nine percentage points clear of the league average. That doesn’t speak to a repeat effort in the ERA column. Neither does his xFIP which places his ERA last season at 3.50. All of this data paints a pitcher who had a perfect storm last season which helped to maximize hie performance.

What do I think about Kennedy? I think he will be a solid pitcher in 2012. As I wrote above, the strikeouts are legit, an if he stays healthy long enough to toss 200-innings he’ll be a benefit in that category. I worry about his ability to keep his ratios as low as they were last season given the drastic improvement he made in the walk column, the fact that his LOB% was so high and that his GB/FB ratio was so mediocre. If you’re drafting Kennedy in 2012 make sure your expectations are reasonable. If you roster him thinking he will be a top-30 starter you have a good chance that your expectations will be met. If you think he’s a top-15 arm you’ll more than likely end up a bit disappointed in the Diamondbacks’ righty.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks, Ian Kennedy

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Ada Wainwright, Carl Crawford, Clayton Kershaw, Cory Leubke, Craig Kimbrel, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, FSTA, Jason Bay, Javier Vazquez, Justin Morneau, Justin Smoka, Kendrys Morales, Mike Stanton, Prince Fielder, R.A.Dickey, Starlin Castro, Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Vegas, Vernon Wells, Victor Martinez

Part II: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

Yesterday in Vegas, The FSTA & More, I regaled everyone with my wondrous stories of my recent trip to Vegas – and boy were they good ones if you missed it. Today, I’ll return to more standard fare in breaking down the team that I drafted at the event. In PART III of the series, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft went overall by highlighting other teams selections.

13-Team Mixed League
29 rounds
23 starters: 14 hitters (C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,5 OFs, UT), 9 pitchers
5×5 scoring
I had the 10th overall selection.
Here’s my team (# in parenthesis is round taken).

C: Yadier Molina (9), Ryan Doumit (17)
1B: Carlos Pena (15), Derrek Lee (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2), Brandon Phillips (5)
3B: Evan Longoria (1), Mat Gamel (25), Ian Stewart (28)
SS: Yunel Escobar (13)
OF: Matt Holliday (3), Michael Bourn (4), Shane Victorino (6), Martin Prado (12), Chris Heisey (19), Matt Joyce (20), Franklin Gutierrez (27)

P: Ricky Romero (7), C.J. Wilson (8), Brandon Morrow (10), Wandy Rodriguez (11), Sergio Santos (14), Chris Perez (16), Roy Oswalt (18), Scott Baker (21), Tim Stauffer (23), Tyler Clippard (24), Javy Guerra (26), Brandon Lyon (29)

Let me explain a few things.

There is no trading in this league (I guess they don’t trust “experts.” Honestly, non-trading leagues are often better because they eliminate someone making a nonsensical trade). There is the draft and then the FAAB process to add free agents, but there is no way to bolster a squad through trading.

This draft is held so early, I mean they haven’t even showed up to camp yet, not to mention that Carlos Pena wasn’t on a team when I drafted and Derrek Lee is still without a squad, that there is certainly some guesswork/luck that goes into the shape of the roster (another example is that I drafted Heisey and literally 10 minutes later news broke that the Reds had signed Ryan Ludwick). This is pointed out, specifically, when you look at the relievers on my squad. Santos and Perez are seemingly locked into their roles as closer, but Guerra has to deal with Kenley Jansen, and it’s unknown if Lyon will be healthy enough to even start the year, let alone if he will be the closer. Still, given the high cost that it will take to snag closers when we open up the FAAB process in two months, I figured it made the most chance to take a shot on a couple of guys late, an if they don’t end up closing I’ll just hit the waiver-wire early in the year.

This league has middle infield and corner infield starters. That’s why I took both Pedroia and Phillips. It might seem odd to take two upper echelon second sackers, but my team will be uber strong up the middle unless things go horrible wrong whereas other teams will be scrambling with guys like Sean Rodriguez and Cliff Pennington as their starters at middle infield.
I decided to roster two third sackers that have potential, but serious questions, late. If either Gamel or Stewart hits, I’ll be happy as all get out. Will both or either hit? Ask me in six months. The selections will look genius, or more likely, dumb at the end of the year.

Doumit in the 17th round was a solid move IF he gets those elusive 400 at-bats, which certainly seems possible if he sees time at C, 1B, DH and OF. Do you trust Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to stay healthy in Minnesota? I don’t.

I’ve never waited this long to take a first baseman, ever. Pena in the 15th round is solid value, the homers and run production should be there for the Rays’ first baseman, but that average is gonna kill me. Hopefully guys like Pedroia, Prado and Holliday will help to offset Pena’s sickly batting average mark.

In opposition to my wait on first baseman, I went earlier than I normally do on the hill. Why? It’s where the value was (you have to be able to roll with the draft). I ended up taking three lefties in my top four selections (not on purpose). Romero, Wilson, and Rodriguez all have 175 Ks arms while righty Morrow has a 200+ arm, and though their ratios my not be great they certainly are a strong top-4 that could be huge if they all produce like their talents dictate. Oswalt/Baker/Stauffer all have questions, that’s why they were available for me to draft late, but again, I like the arms. My bullpen is admittedly thin. I love Santos and what he did last year, and he should be able to do the same thing this year with the Blue Jays. Perez makes me nervous. Too many walks an a declining strikeout rate obviously scared everyone else too which is why Perez lasted so long. Still, the Indians have faith in him, and I need an arm that was a “lock” to open the year in the role. Guerra and Lyon could give me 40 saves, or five. We’ll just have to see.

Overall I’m happy with the squad. I’ve got aces at second, third and the outfield. I think I’ve got a solid duo behind the dish. The starters, while lacking an elite arm, pack a ton of potential. I’ve got pop at the corners, the leagues best speed demon in the outfield (Bourn), and a series of players who should help to produce across the board. Once more unto the breach…

By Ray Flowers

Vegas, The FSTA & More

I normally don’t go provocative with my titles, but I almost put “hookers” in the headline. Why is that? No, it’s not because there’s a charge on my American Express card over the weekend, but I was in Vegas for the past few days and there was a ton that went on. There were radio shows, baseball drafts, networking, booze, the aforementioned hookers, an a plethora of good times. I’ll hit on some of the highlights of the event in this piece. In Part II, I’ll break down the FSTA Experts Baseball Draft that took place and tell you how I felt my team turned out. In Part III, I’ll take a look at how others in the draft evaluated players to give you some insights on what the “experts” are thinking when it comes to a host of other players. Here we go.

I arrived on Saturday and went straight to the UNLV campus where I joined Jeff Mans for three hours on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. We rocked it for three hours, pulled the same trick on Sunday as well, and let me tell you the studios there rock. Thanks to Fantasy Alarm, and Jeff in particular, for letting me tag along all weekend with them. They certainly classed me up.

Thanks to Matt Deutsch, program director of SiriusXM. Not only did he and Rob Touzet run a tight ship that made all of the on-site broadcasts we did enjoyable, those two also know how to have a good time when the microphones are off.

Thanks to Kyle Elfrink and Kay Adams, my capable co-hosts. Kay was the belle of the ball, who can blame anyone for thinking that way since she is about four levels above the rest of us in attractiveness, and Kyle just did his thing like he always does – smooth my friend.

I’d like to thanks Mike Beacom an everyone at the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for awarding me the 2011 Best Baseball Series Award. I knew I was one of the three finalists but I thought I had no chance to win, so I made a bet. If I won I would have to carry around my trophy all night. You’d be surprised at how many women weren’t that impressed with the striking trophy, but the right ones were and that is all that counts. A special thanks also goes out to Peter Schoenke of Rotowire.com for nominating me for the award. Finally, thanks to Matthew Berry of ESPN. For some reason he keeps talking up my BaseballGuys’ Twitter Account as something you have to be following. If you aren’t following get on it or Matthew will be coming after you.

Thank you all.

Here are some other highlights, in no particular order, that occurred over the weekend (and yes, names have been altered to protect identities, though the stories are 100 percent accurate).

At some point we ended up at 7-Eleven and bought the king of all fruity drinks – the Blue Hawaiian by Boone’s.

I had no idea that I was such a good dancer. A highlight of the time on the dance floor was when I approached a pretty brunette. I was just about ready to get my “grind on” when an older woman barged in to cut off my path to the beauty. Turned out it was her mom. I’m not an ageist or anything, but how did I end up dancing with a 58 year old woman, in Vegas of all places? I didn’t find out if she wanted to be my sugar momma.

A lady stopped by our table at a club and offered us blow. We declined. That same lady also offered to “party” with us all night if you get my drift. We declined. When she asked us to sign her breast and buttocks with a sharpie, we happily accepted.

A certain person, let’s call him “Jeff,” and I were out at Treasure Island at about 3 AM on Wednesday morning. We were approached, not by one, but by two groups of ladies of the night. I particularly liked it when one of them said, stealing my best line, that ‘I look really good naked.’ Apparently “Jeff” an I looked like desperate marks.

When you find a bar that allows you to enter for $20 dollars and then get free drinks for the next two an a half hours you go in, even if there isn’t a single woman in there that you’d want to spend the night with. We took our own advice and probably had about 25 vodka and Red Bull’s between us.

I had no idea that people play spin the bottle after high school, but apparently when you’re in your 30′s, an in Vegas, you do still play, an in clubs no less. Why does that damn glass, no matter how many times I spin it, ever end up pointing me toward the hot gal? Where was my luck Vegas?

By Ray Flowers

Tags: ESPN, FSTA, FSWA, Hookers, Las Vegas, Rotowire, SiriusXM, Treaure Island

Player Profile: Cliff Pennington

Often times we find ourselves spending all our time talking and thinking about the elite players. People always want to know who to take in the first round or when they should grab their ace on draft day.  At the same time, people rarely talk about those glue guys that often make the difference between winning and losing. Think back to the draft table in 2011. How many people cared when they called out the names of Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Jhonny Peralta? Yet when all was said and done all three had impressive seasons that helped many a squad to a championship. Today I’ll highlight one of those players who you might want to think about late in drafts (especially in mixed leagues that use the corner and middle infield positions).

Cliff Pennington, for those of you who don’t know, plays shortstop for the Athletics, you know, that green and yellow team on the west coast that seemingly trades away it’s best players year after year. A decent little ballplayer, Pennington has a couple of things going for him. First, no one really cares about him. That means he will be extremely cheap to add to your squad on draft day. He’ll also likely make a solid addition if your starter at shortstop comes down with an injury early in the year forcing you to hit the waiver-wire looking for a warm body. Second, Pennington steals bases. He’s not going to push Jose Reyes for the positional lead in steals but he’s swiped 43 bases the last two years, a total only five other shortstops can better (Reyes 69, Elvis Andrus 69, Erick Aybar 52, Hanley Ramirez 52 and Jimmy Rollins 47). In an AL-only league, or a 15 team mixed league, 20+ steals from a middle infielder is a decent addition to any club.

Now I’m not going to sit here and blow soft kisses to you to hide the fact that Pennington isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. The owner of 18 career homers, Pennington has nonetheless knocked in an average of 51 runs the past two seasons while scoring an average of 61 runs a campaign. Those numbers are all blah, I agree, but when combined they’re really not that bad a set. Guess how many shortstops, the past two years, have scored 120 runs, knocked in 100 and stolen 40 bases? Rather shockingly the answer is just four: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond and Pennington.

While consistent playing time helps with the counting numbers (Pennington has appeared in an average of 152 games the past two years), it will also allow his less than impressive batting average to drag your club down. A .259 career hitter, Cliff has hit .250 and .264 the last two years. There is some hope for a potential run at .280. After all, Pennington does own an impressive 22.1 percent line drive rate. One would expect a pretty high BABIP given that impressive LD-rate, but instead Pennington owns a .310 career mark that is only .010 points above a league average number. As we all should know by now, players set their own benchmarks in this respect, so while it seems like Pennington should post a higher BABIP maybe he won’t though his .342 mark from 2009 does give some hope. Toss in a 0.47 BB/K mark for his career though and the prospects of any substantial batting growth should be concerned a bit of a long-shot.

Pennington is not going to pull an Asdrubal Cabrera in 2012. He’s not going to morph into a difference maker, but if he shows only some slight improvement, let’s say to the .270-10-60-70-20 range, he could be an extremely useful up the middle depth play in deep mixed leagues. Don’t reach on Pennington at any point in your draft, but when you’re sitting there in the 25th round wondering whose name you should call out consider the shortstop of the Oakland Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Asdrubal Cabrera, Athletics, Cliff Pennington, Elvis Andrus, Erick Aybar, Hanley Ramirez, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes

Player Profile: Josh Tomlin

Why am I bothering to write about a guy who had a 4.25 ERA in 2011? How about because he had a WHIP of 1.08 that was 7th in the American League. Yeah, that’s right, Josh Tomlin was an elite option in WHIP last season. Does that make him an elite option in the fantasy game? You already know the answer to that is no, but what if I ask this question – is Tomlin someone you’ll want to target in AL-only leagues in 2012?

Since I already mentioned it, I’ll touch on it briefly. Tomlin had a better WHIP than Michael Pineda (1.10), David Price (1.14) and Jeremy Hellickson (1.15) in the AL, while he posted a better mark than NL hurlers like Tim Hudson (1.14), Zack Greinke (1.20) and Tim Lincecum (1.21). Pretty phenomenal Mr. Tomlin.

The other aspect of Tomlin’s game that was impressive was his ability to chew up innings. Only once in 26 starts did he fail to last five innings, and just three times in 26 starts did he fail to record at least six innings. That’s pretty amazing in this day and age isn’t it?

With that I will end the happy thoughts with Tomlin. You might be saying ‘but Ray, he went 12-7 and surely he should get some love for that right?’ I would respond by saying that’s a strong record certainly helped by the fact that he worked deep into games, but wins and loses are simply not easily projectable, so I don’t pay as much attention to those two categories as others do.

As for his performance, here are my concerns.

(1) His ERA was solid at 4.25, but the big league average in 2011 was 3.94, so clearly his ERA wasn’t that good now was it?

(2) Tomlin just doesn’t strike anyone out. Look at the numbers. I want my starters to have a K/9 mark over six at a minimum (the big league average in 2011 was 7.13). Tomlin posted pathetic 5.30 mark in 2010 before his K/9 fell to 4.84 in 2011. He simply stinks in this category, so badly in fact that it nearly wipes out the positivity of his WHIP success. A starting pitcher who has an upside of 110 Ks if everything breaks right doesn’t excite me, at all.

(3) You cannot expect Tomlin to walk merely 1.14 batters per nine innings like he did in 2011 moving forward. The guy walked 21 batters in 165.1 innings as he cut in half his already impressive BB/9 mark of 2.34 from his rookie season. That 1.14 rate is not sustainable.

(4) Tomlin gets beat around the yard frequently allowing the ball to end up in the seats. After posting a 1.23 HR/9 mark in 2010, that number inched upward to 1.31 in 2011. Tomlin posted a 0.95 GB/FB ratio, well below the big league average of 1.10.

Look, here’s the simple truth.

Tomlin doesn’t strike out enough batters to be “average” in that category.
Tomlin will almost certainly see his walk rate increase in 2012.
Tomlin’s GB/FB rate is sub par.

So if you have a pitcher with those traits, do you really think that he has a chance to produce a 1.08 WHIP on a consistent basis? I have zero faith that he will be as effective in 2012 — think Trevor Cahill and the regression he faced moving from 2010 to 2011 (see his Player Profile). So, will I target Tomlin in an AL-only league? There’s no chance of that happening, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a solid option in that setup though one that has some serious warts.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Indians, Josh Tomlin

Player Profile: Martin Prado

Martin Prado is one heck of a hitter. You may not believe that statement if you look at his middling 2011 numbers, but trust me, when everything is going right for this righty swinger he has the look of a guy who could put up a .300 plus batting average every year. So what happened last year? Let’s look back before we move forward.

2009: .307/.358/.464
2010: .307/.350/.459
2011: .260/.302/.385

Clearly something happened in ’11. After two virtually identical seasons Prado failed to post an OBP in 2011 that matched his batting average from the previous two seasons.

Prado has never been an overly patient batter, but things have taken a turn for the worse of late. In fact, over each of the last three years his walk rate has declined (8.3 percent, 7.2, 6.1 and 5.8). Luckily Prado doesn’t strike out much at all, and his 8.8 percent K-rate last year was a career best. He’s also posted a BB/K mark of least 0.61 in three of the past four years, and even in his “down” 2010 effort his 0.47 mark was right on the big league average. Clearly, this doesn’t explain the batting average dip he experienced last year.

Prado posted a GB/FB rate between 1.15 and 1.19 from 2007 to 2009. Then in 2010 he hit a boatload of grounders leading to a 1.59 GB/FB ratio. Honestly that isn’t the end of the world, it’s not like he’s a home run hitter, but it was a big shift. That number regressed somewhat in 2011 dropping to 1.47, but that’s deceiving since he actually had a career-high GB-rate of 51 percent. How did his GB/FB ratio drop then in 2011? Simply put, he didn’t hit anything on a line last season. Prado, who owns a career line drive rate of 18.9 percent, a mark that he reached each year from 2007-10, saw his LD-rate shrink to 14.6 percent. Given the type of hitter he is, and his track record in this category, it’s extremely odd to see such a low number. In fact, I’d say it’s nearly impossible to explain other than to say that he was pretty an unlucky fella last year, at least at some level.. Just take a look over at the BABIP column for some further detail here. Prado owns a .315 career BABIP and had posted a mark of at least .321 each year from 2007-10 before seeing a massive dip last season down to .266. Just 28 years old, it’s hard to lean on a skills decline to explain any of this so we are likely left with some combination of (a) bad luck and (b) injury induced struggles.

So what I’m saying here should be obvious – Prado should rebound in 2011. He’s simply been too consistent at the dish early in his career to think that at age 28 he’s lost it. The batting average should rebound, and with it his OBP should return to better than the league average (Prado is a career .293 hitter who hit at least .307 each year from 2008-10). If he plays everyday that would mean he’s had a shot to replicate the numbers he posted in 2010. He’s not likely to hit 20 homers, and 10 steals might be a pipe dream, but hitting .300 while scoring a bushel of runs should be well within his reach for the the 2012 season. Prado also is valued for his defensive acumen in the fantasy game that includes his ability to wear multiple hats (he played 100 games in the outfield last season and 41 at third base, a year after he also appeared in 98 games as a second baseman). Given his glove an ability to hit for a high average, he should be someone you’d willingly target on draft day 2012. Don’t draft him expecting him to exceed his 2010 effort but he would seem to be a near lock to better the middling totals he posted for the Braves in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Braves, Martin Prado

A Look Back at 2011 – Batting

Yesterday I tackled the 2011 performance of pitchers, an if you know me you know that I’m all about symmetry. Today, I’ll break down some of the numbers that stood out for me when I looked at the hitters for 2011. Special thanks to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool).

For my review of some of the fascinating pitching numbers see A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching.

Asdrubal Cabrera hit .636 with 13 RBI last year in 11 at-bats with the bases loaded.

Miguel Cabrera led baseball with a 1.047 OPS against right handed pitching. That mark was .001 better than two other first basemen – Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder.

If you were an NL pitcher in 2011 and you were looking to get strike one under your belt then you wanted to see Jamey Carroll come to the dish. Carroll swung at only 6.9 percent of first pitches. The only other NL batter in single digits was Martin Prado (9.8). As for those that did let her rip on the first pitch three names topped 40 percent: Yadier Molina (40.7), Aramis Ramirez (40.6) and Freddie Freeman (40.1).

If you were a curveball specialist you didn’t want to see the Diamondbacks on your schedule as Chris Young and Justin Upton were 1-2 in the NL in OPS against the curveball (1.149 and 1.148). If you relied on the slider, you certainly didn’t want to see the Reds or the Phillies in the other dugout as the Phillies had three guys in the top-5 in the NL in OPS (Shane Victorino 1.111, John Mayberry 1.060 and Jimmy Rollins 1.060) while the Reds had three in the top nine (Ryan Hanigan 1.036, Jay Bruce 1.036 and Chris Heisey 1.014).

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League, and baseball, with 364 total bases. Teammate Adrian Gonzalez was second in the AL with 345 while Matt Kemp led the NL at 353.

Prince Fielder hit the longest home run in the NL at 486 feet. That’s hardly a surprise. However, the only other NL player with a homer over 480 feet was Juan Francisco of the Reds who hit on 482 feet on September 12th. No AL batter put one into the seats at a distance of at least 480 feet.

Derek Jeter failed to hit .300 as he finished at .297 for the Yankees. Blame his work against righties (.277) as he killed lefties to the tune of a .347 mark. For his career he’s hit .336 against lefties and .305 against the righties.

Matt Kemp loved seeing a lefty on the hill in 2011. His OPS of 1.142 was the best in the National League against southpaws. That mark was just behind the 1.156 OPS  of Jose Bautista against port siders, the AL leading total.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .394 batting average with runners in scoring position. He also posted a .990 OPS in those 155 at-bats. He didn’t slump much either when the situation was a runner in scoring position with two outs. In that scenario he hit .375 with a .930 OPS (72 at-bats).

Dustin Pedroia saw 3,077 pitches, the most in baseball. Only one other batter was over 2,900 and that was Curtis Granderson at 3,069.

There was only one leadoff hitter in baseball, who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances in that spot, who posted an on base percentage of .400. It was Brandon Phillips of the Reds at .417. Surprisingly the AL leader wasn’t Jacoby Ellsbury who was second at .381. The fella in the Junior Circuit with the best mark was the Royals… Alex Gordon at .383.

There wasn’t a single batter in the NL who was under the age of 26 that posted an OPS of .900. The leader was Justin Upton at .898 followed closely by Mike Stanton (.893) and Carlos Gonzalez (.889).

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Alex Gordon, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Phillips, Chris Young, Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jamey Carroll, Jose Bautista, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Mike Stanton< Carlos Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Victor Martinez