Can’t We All Get Along

How many times a day are you called an “idiot”? If you work in customer service for the local cable company the number must at least be in the teen’s, roughly akin to the same total that the 17 year old customer service rep at the local megamart gets when he has no idea where the cheese isle is. I have another job where that term is bandied about frequently, and that is the profession of “sports writer.”

I probably hear ‘you’re an idiot” about 10 to one over “you’re really a great writer.” Honestly, it might be even worse than that (I’m not adding any hyperbole here, I’m being legit). Look I get it, sometimes we all write and say dumb things, but for some reason people feel particularly open to hurl insults when (a) they don’t have to face you and (b) they don’t have all the facts. Let’s take my case for example.

I tried to count how many words I have written during my “career,” and a rough guess is at least six million. Think about that. On an average day I write about 6,000 words, six grand (that is published stuff and doesn’t speak to the voluminous emails and instant messages that I also handle). Is it possible that at some point in that race to six thousand that I will make a mistake? There certainly is. Moreover, is there a chance I might write something that really doesn’t hit the spot? Of course. However, that’s an awful lot of words each day to be 100 percent accurate on. Add in the videos I do, and the daily hour podcast I co-host with Kyle Elfrink called the The Fantasy Buffet (it’s live each morning from 8-9 AM PST), and that is a whole lot of my words floating around in some form. If I only screw up one percent of the time, an admirable goal for anyone, that means I’m writing some sort of nonsense at about 15,000 words over the course of the year. I know that is a massive amount of idiotic words, but a 99 percent success rate would still be a level that anyone would take with a huge smile, would they not?

Am I whining here? Possibly, though if you have read my stuff for any appreciable amount of time you will know that I’m certainly not one who does this very often. I’m also more than willing to admit when I make a mistake or do/say something really stupid (just ask my friends, I’m apologizing all the time). It just gets to be a little old to constantly hear all the negatives that are hurled at me and my co-workers on a daily basis.

Here are some suggestions for you all.

(1) Realize we all make mistakes. Point them out, but don’t attack us and hurl bombs at us – we aren’t in Congress.

(2) If we make a mistake, point it out constructively. If I write someone hit 35 homers and it was really 25, just send a note of clarification.

(3) If you are going to be a moron yourself, don’t waste our time. We all read everything that is sent our way, so don’t force us to read crap that has no value to it.

(4) Don’t forget to tell me to go to hell every once in a while. j/k

So here is a standing statement from me.

I’m sorry when I screw up.
I’m sorry if I say/write something that doesn’t make sense.
I’m sorry if you hate my guts.

As for those of you that enjoy any writers work, drop them a line and let them know. On the Fanball Sports Network you can leave a comment at the end of every story. It won’t take much time, just a ‘hey, I really like your stuff’ to bring a smile to all the writers faces. Just that little bit can make someone’s day, a worthy return on all the effort the writers put into keeping you all informed with the latest, and best, information they can.

I’m getting off my soap box. Now where did I put that copy of Anchorman that I was going to watch tonight?

For those of you who would like to read some actual sports analysis, here are a couple of links for you.

The Power-Play: The top-50 players in the NHL.

Sabermetric Primer: TERA.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Baseball, editorial, opinion

Around the Horn: March8, 2010

(1) Albert Pujols suffering back woes. Should be fine in a few days.

(2) Brandon Webb likely to miss start of the season because of shoulder.

(3) Kevin Slowey throws, looks good after wrist surgery.

(4) Joe Nathan visiting doctors about his surgically repaired elbow.

(5) Aroldis Chapman throws 102 mph? Will he make the club in Cincy?

(6) Jason Heyward continues to make his case for a starting spot with Braves.

By Ray Flowers

The Week that Was

With the Academy Awards due to be handed out this weekend, I thought I would take a break from all the face time I give myself with my video segments in Around the Horn. I wouldn’t want to make the “professionals” look bad. So today all you’ll get is my razor sharp wit through the written word.

* How great is it to have baseball games, and therefore box scores, to watch/read each day? I’m fortunate as hell to have my job, who wouldn’t want to immerse themselves in sports all day, and that point is squarely driven home when I can turn on the MLB Network at 10 AM and get the chance to watch a spring training ballgame. Priceless.

* Did you catch my recent review of the Dodgers’ third baseman Casey Blake? In case you missed it, here is a morsel to get you to click on over. “Did you know that over the past three years that Blake has hit at least .270-18-78-7… only he and Alex Rodriguez can make that claim at third base.”

* Peter Gammons came out and said that Delmon Young looked great and that he thinks he has finally figured it out. I give my thoughts on the young outfielder in Breaking Down: Delmon Young. “He is also one of just 21 guys who have had at least 400 plate appearances in each of the past three years who has hit at least .284 in each of those seasons.”

* Are you as confused as I am with all the uncapped NFL stuff? Sorry I slipped there and mentioned the pigskin. I guess it’s just a left over reflex from the recently completed season.

* Can Bobby Jenks hold down the White Sox closers spot in 2010? He’s in better physical shape and is ready to attack hitters again. Read about him in Breaking Down: Bobby Jenks? “Jenks has posted at least 29 saves in each of the past four seasons. There are only seven men in the group that have accomplished that: Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero and of course Jenks.”

* Since I slipped and mentioned football above, I thought I might as well reference my NHL Trade Diary piece as well. I tell you, I literally sat at my computer for eight straight hours the day of the trade deadline writing that piece. That isn’t hyperbole either. I literally was at the ready for about seven hours and 55 minutes as I only took about five minutes out of that time to get a few drinks (juice, not booze), go to the bathroom a couple of times, and to stock up on granola bars that I ate throughout the day. What I do for my craft. You should have seen more poor back at the end of the day. Cue the violins.

* It’s not the be all end all of pitching analysis, but did you catch my creation to measure pitchers effectiveness called Average Bases Allowed? I think it should replace WHIP in fantasy leagues, even if few agree with me.

* Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes as the Yankees fifth starter? I’m already tired of the debate. Face it everyone – ALMOST EVERY HURLER WOULD BE MORE DOMINATING OUT OF THE BULLPEN. I mean seriously, how many times have you heard “…Joba loses about five mph when he starts, he just loses his willingness to attack hitters.” Um, sorry morons, he’s throwing five mph slower because he has to last for 100 pitches, not 20 like he did when he worked out of the pen. Memo to the Yankees – leave Joba in the rotation, remove the stupid Joba Rules, or just move the guy to the bullpen forever. It’s not that complicated is it?

I’m out.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Bobby Jenks, Casey Blake, Delmon Young, Dodgers, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Joba Chamerlain, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Trevor Hoffman, Twins, White Sox, Yankees

Around the Horn: March 4, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes visits doctor, but still healthy. Turns out it had nothing to do with his hamstring.

(2) Hank Blalock deciding between Rays and Marlins. Neither is offering full-time role.

(3) David Aardsma tweaks groin. Not a major issue, but brings up how useful Brandon League might end up being.

(4) Ike Davis Mets’ first basemen of future. Can Daniel Murphy hold him off in the present?

(5) Max Scherzer struggles for Tigers in first outing.

(6) Brandon Webb frustrated with speed of comeback from shoulder surgery. No setbacks reported but he feels like he has “stagnated” in the process.

Here are some links to a few of my most recent pieces at Fanball.com which are free to view.

Crawford vs. Ellsbury.

Average Bases Allowed – Starters.

Average Bases Allowed – Relievers.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Baseball, Brandon League, Brandon Morrow, Brandon Webb, Daniel Murphy, David Aardsma, Diamondbacks, Edwin Jackson, Hank Blalock, Ike Davis, Jose Reyes, Mariners, Marlins, Max Scherzer, Mets, Rays, Tigers

Around the Horn: March 3, 2010

(1) Phil Hughes in battle with Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves for Yanks 5^th starters spot.

(2) Jason Heyward greatest player of all-time. Just ask around

(3) Tim Hudson and Jeremy Bonderman throw two shutout innings apiece.

(4) Brad Lidge continues to show improvement with knee/elbow.

(6) Jair Jurrjens shoulder showing improvement.

(7) Lance Berkman’s knee not that bad. Should be fine.

(8) Aaron Harang named Reds’ Opening Day starter.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Aaron Harang, Alfredo Aceves, Astros, Baseball, Brad Lidge, Braves, Chad Gaudin, Chipper Jones, Jair Jurrjens, Jayson Heyward, Jeremy Bonderman, Joba Chamberlain, Lance Berkman, Phil Hughes, Phillies, Reds, Tigers, Tim Hudson, Yankees

Who Am I?

Here I go again with another installment of ‘let’s see if you can hazard a guess as to who I might be merely by looking at some of the accomplishments from my career.

(1) I’m a solid hitter who owns a .274 batting average. I’ve hit as high as .315 and 321 in a couple of seasons.

(2) I’m not known as a run scorer per se, but I have recorded at least 90-runs in five seasons.

(3) I have hit 40 doubles in a season three times. I’ve also pounded out at least 29 two baggers four other times.

(4) In addition to the doubles, I’m a pretty fair home run hitter as well. On 10 separate occasions I have hit at least 23 homers. Three times I’ve been in the 30’s, and once I got into the forties with a career best of 44 homers. On three different occasions I finished in the top-10 in the league in home runs.

(5) Because of the doubles, the homers, and a few triples, I’ve been in the top-7 in extra base hits in a season on four different occasions.

(6) I’ve bested 105-RBI four times with a career-high of 120. Five other times I’ve platted at least 80 runners.

(7) I’ve been named to two all-star teams.

(8) I won a Gold Glove for my defensive exploits in 2000.

Any idea who I might be? Perhaps a few more bits of data will help.

(9) I have hit at least 23 homers in each of the past 10 seasons in which I have batted at least 475 times.

(10) I have knocked in at least 78 runners in each of my last 10 healthy seasons.

(11) If you put numbers nine and ten together you end up with 10 seasons in 11 years that I’ve hit at least 23 homers with 78 RBI (the only year I missed out I was limited to 221 at-bats because I was injured). Neither of those totals is outstanding in any way, but that doesn’t mean that my ability to produce them year after year is ordinary. In fact, that total of 10 such season the past 11 years is tied for the second best mark in baseball with Carlos Delgado, Carlos Lee and Vladimir Guerrero. Only Alex Rodriguez has reached both totals in each of the past 11 seasons.

Still don’t have it figured out? How about if I give you what position I play – right field. Furthermore, since 2004, I lead all right fielders in home runs (187) and I’m second in RBI with 566 (Bobby Abreu has 618).

Give up?

I’m free agent Jermaine Dye.

Given all of the above, you can completely understand why Dye feels slighted by the fact that all he has been offered is part-time work, even though he has agreed to play first base for those teams that are concerned about his ability to handle outfield work. “Teams want me as a backup player, and that’s something I’m not ready to do,” Dye said. “I feel undervalued, basically. I don’t think I have to go out there and prove anything to anyone. My numbers the last five or six years show I can help someone.”

I can’t disagree with you at all Mr. Dye.

So what if he can’t play the outfield, he can still hit, and before you go telling me how awful he was in the second half last season, consider this: the Indians just signed Russell Branyan to a 1-year deal worth $2 million (he has a $5 million option for 2011). Let’s compare Dye to Branyan last season.

Dye: .250-27-81-78 with a .340 OBP and a .453 SLG
Branyan: .251-31-76-62 with a .347 OBP and a .520 SLG

Oh yeah, that second half slump of Dye’s, it’s no different than Branyan.

Dye: .179-7-26 with a .293 OBP and a .297 SLG
Branyan: .193-9-27 with a .274 OBP and a .414 SLG

If a lifetime backup like Branyan can get a deal, why can’t a borderline yearly all-star get one? I don’t know either.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 1, 2010

(1) Alfonso Soriano to hit 6^th for Cubs.

(2) Troy Glaus says his shoulder is doing well.

(3) Josh Hamilton still dealing with sore shoulder.

(4) Miguel Cabrera quits drinking, ready to mash on field.

(5) Jose Reyes plays/runs with positive results for Mets.

(6) Bobby Jenks – what does 2010 hold in store? You can hear my thoughts in the video and augment that with my Breaking Down: Jenks article.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Bobby Jenks, Braves, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, Cubs, J.J. Putz, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, Matt Thornton, Mets, Miguel Cabrera, Rangers, Tigers, Troy Glaus, White Sox

Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Brandon Webb, Chad Qualls, Chase Utley, Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Grady Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes, Mark Teixeira, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Tim Lincecum

Around the Horn: Feb 25, 2010

(1) Carl Crawford is no longer negotiating with Rays meaning this is almost assuredly his last season with the club.

(2) Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan receive positive news in regards to their injuries

(3) Adam Dunn working on defense at 1B for Nationals.

(4) Alfonso Soriano reporting that his knee is improving.

(5) Brad Lidge throwing – showing improvement. Still hopes to make opening day.

(6) Francisco Liriano has Twins excited with the return of his “stuff.”

(7) Jose Batista to bat leadoff for Blue Jays – uh oh.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano, Blue Jays, Brad Lidge, Capitals, Carl Crawford, Cubs, Desmond Jennings, Francisco Liriano, Joel Hanrahan, Jose Batista, Octavio Dotel, Phillies, Pirates, Rays, Ryan Madson, Twins

Around the Horn: Feb 24, 2010

(1) Russell Branyan to start at 1B for Indians sending Matt LaPorta to left field and Michael Brantley to Triple-A.

(2) Cliff Lee throws for first time since minor foot surgery.

(3) Astros to have 9th inning competition between Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom. You can read my thoughts in Breaking Down: Lyon/Lindstrom.

(4) Josh Hamilton injures shoulder.

(5) Livan Hernandez signs with Nationals for $900,000 plus incentives.

(6) Hank Blalock to Marlins/Rays as left-handed power bat off bench?

(7) Chad Qualls undervalued on draft day with an ADP of over 200.

(8) Olympic anguish with ice hockey being taped delayed. You can witness my frustration at USA Olympic Hockey Delay.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Astros, Brandon Lyon, Chad Qualls, Cliff Lee, Diamondbacks, Hank Blalock, Indians, Livan Hernandez, Mariners, Marlins, Matt LaPorta, Matt Lindstrom, Michael Brantley, Nationals, Olympics, Rangers, Rays, Russell Branyan, Scott Olsen, Stephen Strasburg