What is His Legacy?

I was recently asked by a friend what I thought of Pedro Martinez. Why did his career end so abruptly? Did I think he had a chance to be an effective pitcher this season if he signed with someone? And finally, what is his place amongst the greats of the game? Here are my thoughts on each matter.

(1) Why has his career basically ended so abruptly?
I actually don’t think it ended abruptly at all. Basically what has happened is that guys like Randy Johnson and John Smoltz have spoiled us into thinking that every top-flight pitcher can pitch effectively into their 40′s. The truth is, they cannot. Pedro might have “lost it” compared to the two guys we just mentioned, but he won 15 games with a 2.82 ERA as a 33 year old, and that certainly isn’t a bad effort at all. Pedro then started to suffer from shoulder issues, hardly a surprise for a guy who stands 5’11″ and weighs about 175 lbs and threw a 95 mph fastball for years. The fact of the matter is that his body just wore out, a rather normal occurrence for a man who has tossed nearly 2,800-innings in his big league career.

(2) Can he be effective this season?
I don’t see why he couldn’t be a better hurler than a ton of arms currently employed by major league clubs, even at age 37, as long as he is healthy. Certainly he won’t be able to recapture his past glory, but I don’t see why he couldn’t be an effective reliever, that is if his body could stand the transformation from throwing every five days as a starter. Pedro was always a “pitcher” who threw hard and not a hard thrower who tried to pitch. He might not be able to hit even 90 on the gun anymore, but I bet he could still pitch his way to some outs.

(3) What is his legacy?
This was the portion of the question that had me most intrigued. Let’s take a look at Pedro in a handful of categories and see how he stacks up against the all-time greats.

Wins and Loses
Pedro has 214 victories, tied for 86th all-time. Given that he has lost only 99 games, that leaves him with a superlative .684 winning percentage which just so happens to be the seventh best mark in baseball history. If remove pre-1900 hurlers he moves up to fourth on the all-time list. He may not have the volume of wins that others have, but it’s obvious that he was nearly as effective as any man who ever climbed the hill.

ERA
Pedro’s overall ERA of 2.91 is the 61st best mark in the history of baseball for a man who has tossed at least 2,000-innings. While that is impressive, it certainly doesn’t speak to just how dominating that Pedro was in his career. I touched on an idea called “normalization” in an earlier piece entitled Some People Never Learn. You can read more about the idea there, but the basic idea is this – raw numbers mean nothing until they are placed in context. When Pedro pitched there was a ton more offense in the game then when Cy Young was on the hill, so comparing their raw ERA’s to one another wouldn’t really tell you much of anything. The only way to know how effective a player is would be to compare him to his contemporaries who played the game under the same conditions that he did. To that end – Pedro has posted a 2.91 ERA in his career. When we adjust for his competition by comparing his ERA to the league average during his career (4.45), and adjust for the parks he pitched in, we come up with an ERA+ of 154. What this means is that Pedro was 54% better than a league average pitcher during his career which just so happens to be the best mark in baseball history amongst starting pitchers. Cy Young who had a raw ERA of 2.63 in his career comes in with an ERA+ mark of 138, good enough for 18th all-time.

WHIP
Since he began his career in 1992 Pedro is the only pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 1,500-innings who allowed less than 10 base runners per nine innings at 9.90 (Greg Maddux is second at 10.08). Moreover, Pedro’s raw WHIP of 1.05 is the third best mark of any hurler, post-1900, who has thrown at least 1,250-innings in the history of the game.

Strikeouts
Pedro is tied with Bob Gibson for 13th all-time in strikeouts with 3,117 in his career (Smoltz is 101 behind). If we move to the ratio category of K/9, Pedro’s career mark of 10.08 is the second best in baseball history for hurlers who have tossed 1,500-innings trailing only the 10.62 mark of the Big Unit, Randy Johnson.

I don’t know if Pedro will come back this season, but I can tell you this without reservation – you may not know it, heck you may not want to admit it, but I think a plausible argument can be made that Pedro Martinez was one of the 10 greatest starting pitchers who ever lived, period. Care to disagree?

By Ray Flowers

The Major League Infirmary

There continue to be a bevy of news stories each day pertaining to a host of injured players on the diamond. Today, I’ll deal with a few of the more intriguing issues that were in the news on Monday.

Carlos Beltran is visiting the same clinic that A-Rod used for his hip surgery. The problem for Beltran is his knee, obviously nothing to do with his hip, but the doctor that he is seeing is a micro-fracture surgery specialist. Still, the Mets are downplaying the visit saying that Dr. Richard Steadman is merely going to review Beltran’s test to make sure everything is progressing as it should. I don’t know about you, but this injury has me mighty nervous. First it was nothing. Then something minor. Then something he could play through. Then it was something that sent him to the DL. And now he is visiting specialists? I get the sneaking feeling that someone isn’t being honest here, and that would make me ready to hit the bottle if I was a Beltran owner.

Raul Ibanez, currently on the DL with a groin injury, was said to be on track to return as soon as his 15 day stint on the sidelines was up. Oh well, that’s apparently out the window now. Ibanez will most likely not be ready to go on Friday despite the fact that the groin has improved. “One day he can be doing great, and another day not as great,” GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “We have to keep our minds open there. We’ll reevaluate him and see whether he’s physically able to start some type of rehab.” Given his time on the shelf he will likely need at least a couple of games in the minors to get his timing back, so don’t plan on seeing him in a Phillies uni until at least next week (that last part was Ray Flowers talking, not anyone with the Phillies organization). To read just how effective Ibanez has been this year when compared to every other major league player, make sure you give the MLB Player Rater a read.

Mike Lowell is another case of a mysterious injury situation. We know that it’s his surgically repaired hip that was giving him problems, but as in the case of Beltran, the condition has seemingly grown worse as the days have passed. First Lowell just needed some time off after playing virtually every game in the early going. Then it was noted that he has some pain, so the club was going to give him some time off in interleague play with Kevin Youkilis sliding over to third with David Ortiz playing first. Now we get word that Lowell might end on up on the DL if he doesn’t respond to some Dr. Frankenstein type of injection he just received in his hip. OK, that might not quite be were we are at, but the injection of Synvisc sure seems pretty out there to me. Apparently the material is meant to lube up the joint, kind of like oil for your car, though even Lowell seems a bit mystified at the procedure. “They took the bad stuff out and put the good stuff in. I’m a little bruised from the injection itself but I do feel I have a lot more mobility. I think I’ll be able to tell more tomorrow when I get stretched out and stuff.” The best case scenario at this point appears to be a mid-week return, though as I mentioned a DL stint is still a possibility. Too bad to since Lowell was humming along pretty well with 41 RBI and 10 home runs in just 68 games to make him one of just seven third baseman to reach both of those levels in the early going.

Jake Peavy says that he will be ready to return to the hill in three weeks as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. You can read more about Peavy, and what the rest of the Padres are up to in my most recent National League Review.

By Ray Flowers

You Make the Call

This title is though provoking (I hope), but the truth is I’m going to give you my calls on some of the biggest issues of the past couple of days. Hopefully you’ll agree with my thoughts. Everyone is entitled to their opinion – as long as it agrees with mine.

Moron of the Week?
Jeff Bennett wins the moron of the week honors, quite the accomplishment in this day and age of often lax behavior. The Braves reliever will have to undergo surgery on his hand after punching a door out of frustration after a poor outing on Wednesday. “I’m ashamed of myself. This is a professional sport; you handle yourself in a professional manner. I didn’t do that.” At least he was smart enough to punch the door with his non-pitching hand. Still, I think it would be more helpful to do what I do when I’m angry or frustrated – I head to my kitchen, crack open the rum bottle, add a dash of pineapple juice, and one of those little umbrella’s if I have one handy, and pull back on the hooch. Works for me.

Worst Timing of the Week?
Xavier Nady’s season is over after it was learned that he will need to undergo TJ surgery on his elbow. He tried valiantly to come back, but after his most recent set back in the minors the decision was made to go under the knife. This comes at a terrible time for Nady who is a free agent at the end of the season. As a result, Nady will be leaving untold millions on the field as he will be forced to sign a short-term deal to prove his worth hitting after .305-25-97 last season in a year split between the Pirates and the Yankees. TJ surgery usually takes about 12-18 months of recovery time for pitchers, but being an outfielder Nady might be able to shorten that time frame to the lower end of the estimate, especially if he can find a club that will let him DH. Still, we may not see him until the All-Start break of 2010.

Moron of the Week Number Two?
I wrote an IMPACT REPORT on Milton Bradley early Friday in which I pointed out that he really isn’t as good a player as most people think he is. I also mentioned his somewhat frequent tirades and suspensions. Well, turns out Bradley must have wanted us all to focus on his often asinine behavior as reports from the Cubs game on Friday say that the struggling outfielder threw his helmet and smashed a water cooler our of frustration in the dugout. As a result, he was removed from the game in the sixth inning. However, after the game manager Lou Pinella stated that he was planning on starting Bradley on Saturday. This brings up the following question – is Bradley or Pinella the moron here?

A Victory of Historic Proportions?

For those of you who think I’m not well-rounded, here is some news from “the pitch” – the fancy name given to the soccer field.

For those of you who missed it, Team USA just pulled of their greatest victory in the history of soccer in this country (some have compared it to the ice hockey victory of Team USA over Russia in the “Miracle on Ice” game in 1980). The club defeated the #1 team in the world, the squad from Spain, 2-0 to move into the 2009 FIFA Confederation Cup Finals against Brazil.

This is the first FIFA tournament finals that the Americans have ever reached. Play started in 1916.

This is the first loss for Spain in 35 games, a mark which tied the all-time record in international play held by Brazil.

Wave your flags folks- USA, USA, USA.

Moron of the Week Number Three?
Sidney Ponson was slated to start on Saturday for the Royals, but that won’t happen now as the club has decided to go with Bruce Chen instead. We don’t know what the reason for the switch is at the moment, but could it have something to do with the fact that Ponson has been banned for two years from international competition after testing positive for a stimulant while participating in the World Baseball Classic? Regardless, Ponson won’t have his ability to earn a living affected given that the suspension has no bearing on his major league status. “It was a prescribed medication, dietary supplement,” Royals manager Trey Hillman said. “He informed all interested parties that he was taking it and it still got flagged.” What happened to the good old days when if you wanted to lose weight you just exercised and ate better? Get it through your heads morons – STOP TAKING SUPPLEMENTS. Jeez. How many times does someone need to get popped before they take that simple statement to hear?

I’m still trying to figure out though if Ponson should have been the lead story in this section or not since Geovany Soto was also banned from international play for two years after testing positive for blazing up a blunt. For those of you who live as straight life and don’t get that reference Soto was suspended because he tested positive for marijuana. Could it be that Ponson needed the dietary supplement to keep his appetite down while he was under the influence of an herb? Of course that’s pure speculation on my part.

By Ray Flowers

What is My Value?

I’m always fascinated by how people evaluate player worth on a weekly basis. Therefore, I’m always interested to see the weekly recaps of free agent bidding in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, or the NFBC. These leagues are made up of 15 teams with 30 person rosters, so there is always a lot of prospecting going on each week as people are basically forced to pick up players, in most cases, that they hope will be able to help them in the future because very, very few full time players are on waivers at one time (therefore, anytime someone has a big week, you can almost be certain they will be a hot property). Here is a review of some of the players that were rostered off waivers this past weekend. Listed are the range of dollar figures for each guy, based on a season long budget of $1000.

Jeremy Accardo – $3 to $207
Wow, talk about a huge spread. Why everyone was so ga-ga over a guy who had spent the entire year in the minors is beyond me (I bid $18 for him in my league). If the club really thought he was that good, would they have let him toil in the minors all season? Anyway, my money is on Jason Frasor taking over the closers role with Scott Downs on the DL, though I don’t know about his long-term outlook. I bid $32 on Frasor, but was outbid in my league (someone went $177 on Frasor and $71 on Accardo in my league). By the way, Frasor went from $11 to $187 dollars overall.

Khalil Greene – $1 to $170
Back hitting home runs and playing third base. Of course, you could have had him for a $1 in about 95 percent of the leagues if you picked him up two weeks ago.

Livan Hernandez – $1 to $25.
You’ve got to be kidding me, right? You’d have to pay me to add him. Next.

Travis Ishikawa – $2 to $34
Seriously? Have you seen what the guy is hitting on the road (.102 with a .412 OPS in 49 at-bats) this season?

Pedro Martinez – $1 to $31
Trying to catch lighting in an old bottle. No team has signed this HOF bound all-time great as of this writing.

John Mayberry – $1 to $91
Will be playing full-time until Raul Ibanez returns, but then what? Most likely he will head back to the minors or be a rather useless fourth option for the Phillies given their top-3 strength in Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth.

Casey McGehee – $1 to $52
Hey, the guy is hitting .348 with 17 runs scored in 36 games. He should be on someone’s roster in a 15 team league with 30 man rosters.

Miguel Montero – $1 to $30
With Chris Snyder on the DL with a back issue, it shouldn’t take more than two weeks to heal up, everyone was on the Montero bandwagon even if they didn’t spend any dough to get him.

Fernando Nieve -$1 to $59
Keep pitching well for the Mets, and as of now he seems to be securing a rotation spot at the expense of the nearly healthy John Maine and/or Oliver Perez.

Scott Richmond – $21 to $122
Strike out 11 batters, and watch the dollars fly. I wonder how much Chad Gaudin will go for this weekend?

Ramon Troncoso – $1 to $28
Save prospecting as people were concerned that Jonathan Broxton might be forced to the DL with that sore toe of his. No such luck so far.

Oh, and one other moronic issue that I felt compelled to address…

The news broke today that Marlon Byrd has been working with Stan Conte, the man who ran BALCO and helped to destroy faith in baseball players with performance enhancing drugs like “the cream” and “the clear” What, was Satan or Mengele unavailable Mr. Byrd? Even if the supplements you are taking are “legal,” does it really make any sense to be dealing with the man who helped to bring baseball to its knees? Idiotic.

By Ray Flowers

What an Interesting Ride

Today I’ll delve into the mystery of where the human race came from. Alright, I’m just blowing smoke as I have no desire to put half of my readers to sleep in the first paragraph (according to a recent survey, they usually don’t start snoring until the third paragraph). Instead, I’ll just touch on a few of the interesting stories that caught my fancy in the last 24 hours in the world of baseball. Hey, we don’t all have to be astrophysicists.

Coco Crisp is likely done for the year as his troublesome shoulder injury will require surgery. Apparently his labrum is torn. You have to respect a guy for trying to play through injury, but sometimes you just have to do what’s best for the team, and that isn’t continuing to go out there if you are hitting .228. Who will take over in center? Apparently the answer to that trivia question is Mitch Maier. The Royals first round draft pick in 2003, shouldn’t Maier have a better line than .253/.312/.313 in his career with that pedigree? Always amazes me when guys have a higher OBP than SLG, and Maier is awfully close in his 198 career at-bats.

Josh Hamilton, I got a lot of respect for that man. Not only has he beaten back his addictions, he continues to be a great role model for those people out there that need someone to turn to when the going gets tough. I also have to say, that since turning his life around, has he done anything wrong? Continuing to do the right thing, he said on Tuesday that he would likely turn down an invitation to the All-Star game even if he was voted into the mid-summer’s classic by the fans (he is currently third in the outfield in fan voting). “The best thing would be to decline going and let somebody else take that spot. Obviously if I stayed up there in the voting, I appreciate the fans doing what they’ve done.” Now it is debatable if Hamilton will be able to play by the time of the game or not as he is still working his way back from a torn abdominal muscle, but I’d like to think that he is letting everyone know his intentions so that the fans will end up choosing someone more deserving of being named to the team. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Do you ever wonder to yourself just how pathetic some people’s lives are? I mean really, who sets up those spamming programs to fill your email box up with this crap? I especially like the ones that come from “your own address” with a title like “sexy ladies in your town want you.” What, did I somehow forget that I sent myself a note about sexy women who want to get down when I was at that brothel last weekend? Come up with a better scam than that people.

Did you catch the continuing antics of Manny Ramirez last night? Manny told the media he would not be doing any interviews until his return to the Dodgers on July 3rd. “I ain’t talking today, baby,” he declared. “Write what you want.” That lasted all of what, an hour? After warming up for the game Manny sat down with the press and talked, well, sort of. “I’m not talking about [performance enhancing drugs] anymore,” he said. “I already said what I’m going to say. I’m here to do my rehab…” Uh Manny, no one wants to talk to you for any reason other than to get your take on your suspension, so if you aren’t going to discuss it just do us all a favor and keep your mouth shut. The man is Picasso with a bat in his hands but an utter buffoon everywhere else.

Another nail in the coffin of Sammy Sosa perhaps? On Tuesday all-time Cub great Ryne Sandberg told ESPN radio that Sosa does not belong in the Hall of Fame. “Part of being in the Hall of Fame, they use the word integrity in describing a Hall of Famer, in the logo of the Hall of Fame, and I think there are going to be quite a few players that are not going to get in.” I’m getting a bit sick of all of this. I won’t launch into a diatribe at this time, but before we all get on that high horse to judge people, why don’t we look back into the past and consider some of the men already in the Hall of Fame. It doesn’t take any digging at all to find spousal abusers, alcoholics, drug users, racists, bigots – you name the vice and there are probably a handful of men already enshrined in the Hall that gave into it. It’s so nice to know that in the 21st century we have evolved so completely that we are now in position to be morally superior and pass judgment on everyone else.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Oddness

Today I’m feeling a bit sick, so I thought it would be appropriate to spend my column discussing guys who are currently on the DL or on the verge of coming off it. So, let’s get to it.

Just how bad is that injury to the knee of Carlos Beltran? Well it isn’t catastrophic and doesn’t appear like he will need surgery, but at the same time the team is bracing to be without their star for more than just 15 days. “I can also tell you that I’m not gonna tell you that he’s gonna be back within the 15 days,” GM Omar Minaya said. “I said to myself … if we get him back for the second half, after the All-Star Break, I’d sign up for that right now.” Wow. The Mets are only 1.5 games back of the Phillies, but if they are without Beltran for three weeks in addition to the other injuries they have suffered (Jose Reyes is likely out until after the All-Star break with his hamstring injury and Carlos Delgado is likely out until August because of his hip surgery), do they really have much of a shot at the playoffs?

I’ve written it before, but here is it again. Oliver Perez as a reliever makes zero sense. The guys takes forever to “find” himself and locate the strike zone, so I cannot see how bringing him into a game in the 7th inning makes any sense at all since he won’t have time to see what is working etc. Maybe I’m wrong, but if I’m the Mets I start him or leave him in the minors starting until he figures out whatever that ails him with his knee and or mechanics. Nothing else makes sense. Oh maybe one thing does – the Mets could trade him to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez.

I don’t get something. OK, I don’t get a lot of things, but I really don’t get how the Indians appear to be handling the case of Grady Sizemore. First off, they let him play far too long with that injured elbow when he clearly wasn’t able to do the things we have been used to seeing from him the past four years since when he finally found his way to the DL he was hitting .223 with a .417 SLG, well below his established baselines of .275 and .486. Then they shut him down for roughly three weeks during which time he basically did nothing to allow the inflammation in his elbow to subside (that makes sense). Then, they had the bright idea of simply activating him without a single game in the minors. “I just want to get back on the field,” said Sizemore. Yeah, we all do Grady, but doesn’t it sound like a bad idea to do nothing for three weeks and then immediately return to major league action? Now we get the following trifecta right before game time on Tuesday night from manager Eric Wedge – Sizemore (a) will not be in the lineup every day, at least for the remainder of this week, (b) might spend some time at DH moving forward and (c) will return to hitting second in the order when Asdrubal Cabrera is ready to return from his shoulder injury, likely later this week. Don’t know about you, but seems like some oddness going on in Cleveland to me.

Joey Votto broke his silence and told the media that the reason that he missed time this season was that he was clinically depressed at the loss of his father last August. I wish you all the best Joey, no more jokes about your condition from this corner now that we know the details.

Does everyone know that Kyle Elfrink and I co-host the Fantasy Buffet Mon., Tues., Thurs. and Fri.? The podcast can be heard at Fanball.com each morning from 8-9 AM, PST. Oh yeah, it’s everyday during the week as Wednesday’s when I’m not there the Godfather of fantasy sports, Charlie Wiegert, steps in to take up my co-hosting chair. Each day we talk about everything sports related, obviously with a fantasy slant, as we break down the latest performances and injuries. Come give the show a listen – it’s not just Kyle and me every day, we also bring in a handful of our other correspondents to allow them to given their views on a myriad of topics. It’s good fun, and if I do say so myself, the show usually comes off without a hitch.

By Ray Flowers

The Case for Jim Thome

Late last week I touched on how I thought it was time that we gave Ken Griffey Jr. more respect than we have of late given the latest performance enhancing drug scandal surrounding Sammy Sosa (you can read all of my thoughts in Death of the Hero?). In that piece I also mentioned, briefly, the name of today’s discussion and that is Jim Thome, who, remarkably unnoticed, has gone about producing one of the most impressive power hitting careers in the history of baseball.

That last statement isn’t hyperbolic in nature by the way. Consider the following data points with Thome.

(1) In his last 12 seasons of at least 400 at-bats, he had only 193 in an injury plagued 2005 campaign, Thome has hit at least 30 home runs.

(2) In those 12 seasons, Thome has knocked in at least 85 runs, and 11 times he has posted at least 90 RBI.

Let’s put those numbers in context.

Thome has 12 seasons of 30 home runs and 85 RBI. That just so happens to be the third most such seasons in baseball history behind only Hank Aaron (14), Mike Schmidt (13) and Babe Ruth (13). Moreover, his total of twelve 30-HR seasons is tied for the fourth most in history (Aaron leads the way here as well with 15).

(3) Thome has averaged, per 162 games in his career, a .278-40-112-107 line. Think about it this way – do you know how many seasons matching all four of those numbers that Albert Pujols has produced in his astounding career? Four. And remember, that is Thome’s average over his career per 162 games.

(4) Thome has always been a remarkable on base machine with a .406 career OBP. Amongst hitters who have accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in their career that number places Thome in 46th place all-time. By the by, his OBP has been at least .385 in 12 of the past 14 seasons. Ryan Howard has only two seasons above .360 in his career.

(5) Thome is the proud owner of a .559 SLG in his career. Amongst hitters who have accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in their career that number places Thome in 19th place all-time. Justin Morneau has only one season that high, and it was exactly .559 in 2006.

(6) Thome’s career OPS is a superlative .965, the 18th best mark in league annals for a batter with at least 3,000 plate appearances. Fellow teammate and slugger Jermaine Dye has only one full season where his mark has bettered that when it was 1.006 in 2006.

So when we add that all up, here is what we come up with.

Thome is eighth on my all-time “clean” home run list (you can find the list at the link at the start of the piece), 46th in OBP, 19th in SLG and 18th in OPS. Toss in his 1,459 runs scored that are 73rd all-time and his 1,527 RBI that are 46th all-time, and this is what we have.

Thome is one of just 11 players in baseball history to hit 400 home runs, knock in 1,500 runs, score 1,400 times and post an OPS of at least .950.

Given all that, does Thome deserve to make the Hall of Fame? Being that his power seems nothing more than corn-fed from growing up in the heartland of American (he was born in Illinois), you seriously have to consider the man for enshrinement in the Hall. The biggest negative is the fact that he has functioned as a DH late in his career though in 2,216 career games he has appeared at first base 1,101 times and third base 492 times, so it’s not like he has been a DH only weapon for the majority of his career (to compare Reggie Jackson, who cannot match Thome’s lifetime numbers, is in the Hall despite 630 games at DH versus Thome’s total of 633). If the voters can look past his merely average batting average of .278, and consider that his name has never been linked to performance enhancing drugs, then I think this lefty swinging slugger has a great shot at having a plaque one day in Cooperstown.

By Ray Flowers

Death of the Hero?

Have all the heroes disappeared in the world of baseball? In case you missed it, and how could you, the New York Times has reported that Sammy Sosa tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003 as one of the 104 major leaguers who failed the “confidential” drug testing that led to Major League Baseball instituting a sport wide steroid testing policy that they continue to follow until this day. Do we have proof that this accusation is true? Of course we don’t since the records that are being reported on are secret and that the “source” for the story is anonymous fearing a potentially stiff legal penalty for divulging privileged information. Much like Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, Sosa never officially failed a major league drug test (the 2003 tests weren’t “official,” that didn’t happen until the following year of 2004 after a high enough percentage of players failed the first test in 2003 to kick in official sanctions), but that certainly won’t help to remove the tarnish that has set in with regards to their legacy.

This whole performance enhancing mess has been discussed ad nauseam, and I have no intention of repeating what has been said in so many corners. I would however like to pose the following question:

Who is the greatest home run hitter in baseball the past 25 years?

Barry Bonds is widely regarded to have cheated during the second half of his career, so he is out.

Sammy Sosa? From a 175 lbs rookie to the cover of Muscle and Fitness magazine with biceps bigger than my thighs. Shocking that he likely cheated.

Mark McGwire? Next.

Rafael Palmeiro? The biggest hypocrite on Earth? I never liked that guy anyway, especially after he did those Viagra commercials and then claimed he didn’t take the product. Yeah, right.

A-Rod? Please. That guy is so phony that he would stand out in a room of fake money in a Secret Service vault (for those of you that don’t know the Secret Service, those folks that run along next to the presidential motorcade with dark glasses an ear microphones, are the branch of government that investigates phony money).

Manny Ramirez? Thought he apparently made it out of the initial barrage clean, his recent test failure certainly casts a huge pale of suspicion over everything he did previously.

So amongst guys who have played the bulk of their careers since 1980, we are left with two names – Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr.

As of this writing Thome has 553 home runs, the 13th best mark in baseball history. As for Griffey, his number is 617, so he becomes the king of the modern day home run hitters. In fact, If not for a series of injury filled campaigns from 2001-04, Griffey likely would be closing in on 700-home runs instead of 620. Think I’m full of it?

Consider that Griffey had hit at least 40-home runs each year from 1996-2000. Even if we posit that he would slow a bit with age, let’s cut that number all the way down to a very conservative 30 a season (after all he hit 35 in 2005 when he returned to health), how many extra home runs would he have hit during his four injury filled seasons? In those four seasons Griffey had 1,027 ABs, an average of 257 a year. Given that he averaged 582 the previous five seasons when he was blasting 40 homer a year, let’s again play it conservative and give him 550 at-bats a season at the rate of 30 homers a year. That equates to one home run per 18.33 ABs. If we add an extra 300 at-bats a season, remember he averaged 257 in that time and we are positing 550 a year, that would given him an extra 16.4 home runs a season. 16.4 times four years equals an additional 66 home runs, which when added to his total of 617 brings The Kid up to 683 in his career. Like I said, within shouting distance of becoming just the fourth man in history to record 700 big flies without the aide of artificial stimulants in his career.

We’ll likely never know the truth of who did what, when, but for my money, and face my opinion is the one that counts given that I’m the one penning this article, here is my top-10 list of home run hitters who have ever played the game.

755 – Hank Aaron
714 – Babe Ruth
660 – Willie Mays
617 – Ken Griffey Jr.
586 – Frank Robinson
573 – Harmon Killebrew
563 – Reggie Jackson
553 – Jim Thome
548 – Mike Schmidt
536 – Mickey Mantle

Long live Ken Griffey Jr., truly one of the most complete players, steroid enhanced or otherwise for that matter, who ever played the game of baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Thursday's AL Beat

Normally I just ramble on about whatever baseball topics catch my fancy. I’m not really changing that up today, I’m merely going to throw one topic out there that I’ll have to follow to somewhat focus my ramblings – I’m only going to discuss happenings in the American League.

The Blue Jays used eight pitchers in a nine inning game for the first time in team history on Thursday as they emerged victorious 8-7 over the Phillies. If you quickly glance at the scorecard you’ll see that recent called up Jeremy Accardo picked up the save. Huh? With Scott Downs on the DL with a sprained big toe the thought was that the team would turn to Jason Frasor to shut the door in the ninth, so why did Accardo pick up the save? Frasor did enter the game late, but it was in the bottom of the eighth inning. Frasor then proceeded to blow the save though he allowed only one hit while recording an out. The club then turned to B.J. Ryan to start the ninth inning, and he picked up a walk and a strikeout before he too was removed for Accardo who recorded two outs to pick up his first save of the season in his first big league appearance of the year. Despite all this craziness if I had to grab Blue Jays’ reliever at this point I would line them up as Frasor, Ryan and Accardo as I think today was the exception and not the rule. Oh yeah, I also should mention that despite the blown save, Frasor picked up his fifth victory of the year once again proving just how ineffective it is to judge a pitcher by his record (he is now 5-0). Frasor now has more victories than Javier Vazquez who has only four victories despite posting a 3.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 112 Ks in 92.1 innings this season for the Braves.

Gavin Floyd was screwed on Thursday as the White Sox’ bullpen betrayed him. Floyd left the game with a 5-1 lead after seven innings before a collection of arms conspired to help the cross town Cubs to emerge with a 6-5 victory. In the outing Floyd only struck out two batters but he allowed just seven base runners in his seven innings to lower his ERA to 4.65 and his WHIP to 1.36. Those numbers still don’t match his totals from last season (3.84 and 1.26), but given his poor start to the year they are rather remarkable. Floyd has now hurled 6-straight “quality starts” for the Sox even though he has only two victories to show for it despite a 1.62 ERA in that time. I don’t think he will be able to get his numbers down to the point that they will rival what he did last season, but as of now he is pitching better than the likes of Zack Greinke and Johan Santana, and that is certainly saying something.

Magglio Ordonez has been benched by Jim Leyland in Detroit for his continued struggles at the dish. Mags is hitting .273 with only two home runs and 22 RBI putting him on pace to roughly hit six bombs with 60 RBI this season. For a guy who has averaged 24 home runs and 115 RBI the past three seasons, that is a shocking fall. His BB/K rate is still strong at 0.76, the same as his career numbers, and his BABIP mark is also right on his career mark of .320 at .315. So why the struggles? (1) He isn’t hitting the ball hard with a 15.2 LD-rate, and that is a precipitous fall from his career 20 percent mark. (2) His swing has been bereft of power as his current Isolated Power mark of .069 is roughly one third his career .202 mark. For those of you who read Isolated Power and think it’s a foreign language, the measure basically outlines a player’ ability to produce extra base hits. If you want to read more about it, click on the following link to Isolated Power, A Review. The bottom line is that it appears, even when he makes contact, that he is hitting with a wiffle ball bat.

John Smoltz got the thumbs up after his strong minor league start on Wednesday night in which he permitted a single run in four innings of work at Triple-A Pawtucket (without a doubt one of the best names in minor league baseball). As a result of his diligent work coming back from his shoulder surgery, Smoltz will finally be seen on a major league diamond for the first time this season on June 25th against the Nationals. For now the team plans to go with a 6-man rotation, but we’ll see how long that lasts. For more on Smoltz, give One Up, One Down a read.

By Ray Flowers

The Chosen One?

Like Roy Hobbs straight out of a scene from The Natural, 16 year old Bryce Harper has burst onto the scene. Certainly those scouts that have followed this kids’ development over the past few years are hardly shocked at the rate at which he continues to dazzle everyone who sees him grace the diamonds in his home state of Nevada, but for those of you unaware of the burgeoning legend, he was recent a cover boy on Sports Illustrated, here are some of the highlights.

1- The kid throws a fastball that has been clocked as high as 96 mph. That’s faster than most of the fastballs from Tim Lincecum (his average fastball is 92.4 mph this season.). Don’t worry though, he doesn’t pitch most of the time, he plays catcher.

2- He once reportedly hit a home run 571 feet. Yes, 571 feet. The longest major league home runs that has officially been verified to my knowledge was a 565 foot bomb hit by Mickey Mantle. Oh yeah, Bryce was 15 years old when he that bomb. Fifteen. He also has the longest home run in Tropicana Field history, you know the park where the Rays play their home games. His blast there was a mere 502 feet, though that was only 502 feet because it smacked into the back wall of the stadium. During the home run derby in which he slugged that Ruthian blast he hit six consecutive home runs that traveled an average distance of 469 feet. Must have been the aluminum bat huh?

3- At 16, he already stands 6’3″ and weighs 205 pounds. And don’t even think of steroids, the kid has never touched the stuff and has no need for it.

4- He played for USA Baseball’s under 16 team at the Pan Am Championships in Mexico facing the best players in the world that are his age. All he did in that tournament was hit .571 with four home runs and six stolen bases in eight games to earn tournament MVP honors.

5- Bryce Harper has decided to skip his junior and senior years of high school and take the GED which he will likely pass with flying colors given his 3.5 GPA. Why? So that he can enter junior college in August of this year, and then become eligible for the major league draft in 2010 in which, conceivably, he could become the number one overall pick in the country.

Is he ready for all of this? We can sit here and debate all day whether or not he can handle the pressure, after all he isn’t even old enough to watch an R-rate movie, to vote, or for that matter he is just barely able to drive a motor vehicle. But in this day and age of 15 year old tennis stars, 14 year old Olympians, and tennie boppers in the entertainment world who aren’t even old enough to watch a PG-13 flick, it’s really a bit of a surprise that it has taken this long for someone to be so good in baseball as to push us all to consider just how young is too young (teams routinely sign foreign players at 16 years of age anyway). As for his skill and the change of him a top-5 pick in the 2010 draft, here is one what National League scouting director had to say about Harper.

“I scouted A-Rod, Chipper Jones, Manny [Ramirez], all those guys in high school. God was very, very good to this kid. He’s stronger than they all were in high school. Never mind next year. If he’d been in the draft this year, he would have gone very, very high.”

Oh, and it appears that Harper will be represented by Scott Boras who almost certainly will look to make the argument that Harper is the greatest athlete since modern man crawled out of the Fertile Crescent in Africa some 100,000 years ago.

It will likely end up being a wild ride for this kid. I can only wish him the best and hope that he turns out to be more Ken Griffey Jr. than Todd Van Poppel.

By Ray Flowers