Mailbag Mania
July 23rd, 2009 | by Ray Flowers |
Another day, another couple of emails to answer. Hey, you wouldn’t expect anything different from me would you? You all know that I’m here for all of you (how sweet huh?), and I happily answer all the questions I receive, even if it takes me a day or two. Let’s get to it before you start hearing violin’s playing.
I’ve been offered Paul Konerko and Cole Hamels for Tommy Hanson in a 3 man keeper league. I’m currently in 1st place in my division and I have Garret Jones as my current 1st baseman. The balance of my pitching staff is – Greinke, Billingsley, Jimenez, Garza, Brett Anderson, and Slowey (DL).
Here is the balance of my roster: Sandoval, Phillips, G. Jones, Rollins, Youkilis, Markakis, Pence, Hart, Ibanez, N. Cruz, R. Gutierrez, McCutchen, Prado
– Alan
The first thing to keep in mind here is that you can only keep a certain amount of players in any keeper league. Having young talent is obviously a major goal in such a set up, but if you can only protect a handful of guys from year-to-year it doesn’t make any sense to compile a roster of 10 first or second year players unless they can help you win today.
In this case, we have just such a situation. Based upon the statement given, each team can only protect three players. Therefore, trades should be made much more for today, versus next season, in many cases. Someone might want to keep Tommy Hanson in such a league, but honestly, that’s way more of a risk than I would consider. Why? Let’s assume this is a 12-team mixed league. Heck, let’s assume this is a 15-team mixed league. If each team can protect only three guys from year-to-year that means that in order to protect Hanson for next season you would need to view him as one of the top-45 players in the game. I’m certainly not there. Heck, you already have Zack Greinke and Chad Billingsley to choose from if you want to protect a pitcher for 2010, and I would without question protect both of them over Hanson.
Would I therefore accept the deal? You bet I would – though realize you will have to make a secondary move in order to create space no your roster for the two men you will be receiving. Hamels is in line for a strong second half if you ask me, especially when you consider that he has a .344 BABIP mark, far too high, especially for a man who owns a superb 4.74 K/BB mark. And don’t overlook the bounce back season of Konerko (.296-18-64) who is hitting .322 with five homers and 15 RBI in his last 15 games.
Who would you recommend out of the following pitcher available (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV), keeper league:
Brett Anderson
Jonathan Sanchez
Jeff Niemann
Manny Parra
C.J. Wilson
My pitching staff looks like this: Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Scott Baker, Jorge De La Rosa, Phil Hughes, J.P. Howell, DL – Lindstrom, DL – Wang, DL – Maine
Should I just wait for Lindstrom and Wang to come off the DL and not use up the waiver move (only have 3 left for the year)?
– Matthew, Toronto
Not knowing how many players can be kept, I’m at a bit of a loss here to recommend a guy.
If you are looking to add a guy to help right now, Jeff Niemann has been pretty good of late with a victory in each of his last five decisions as his ERA has fallen from 4.53 on May 23rd to 3.61.
Jonathan Sanchez has thrown consecutive “quality starts” including that no-hitter, but it’s tough to recommend a guy who has walked 47 batters in 84.2 innings.
Brett Anderson has allowed just one run in his last four appearances totaling 26.1 innings to drop his ERA to 4.25. Still, the youngster needs to prove he can handle the grind of a full season.
Manny Parra has looked rejuvenated since he returned to the Brewers allowing only one run over 13 innings while walking only four men.
C.J. Wilson continues to get save chances as Frank Francisco just cannot stay on the field. He owns a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.17 K/BB mark, merely average for a late inning reliever.
Chien-Ming Wang, I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but at the same time he has been so awful I would just leave him on the DL until he proved worthy of activation.
Matt Lindstrom continues to progress from his elbow issues and hopes to be back within two weeks, max. Still, I want to see him prove his worth as well before I activate him.
You have two choices Matt. You can grab Wilson since you currently have only one closer on your roster. However, that might indicate that you have decided to “punt” saves in which case there is little reason to add Wilson, especially since he isn’t likely to hold on to the job the rest of the way (Francisco is getting over a bout of pneumonia). Therefore I would recommend picking up Jeff Niemann. He clearly doesn’t have an upside remotely approaching the others, but I see Anderson, Sanchez and Parra as having more downside than the man from the Rays.
And finally —
Kudos to Mark Buehrle who threw just the 18th perfect game in baseball history today (including Don Larson’s outing in the 1956 World Series). Buehrle should name his next kid after DeWayne Wise who caught what would have been a home run as he crashed into the wall in the bottom of the ninth inning (he was a defensive replacement in the ninth by the way). What a game. Take that retirement talk.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brett Anderson, C.J. Wilson, Chien-Ming Wang, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Sanchez, Manny Parra, Mark Buehrle, Matt Lindstrom, Paul Konerko, Tommy Hanson
By Marc Stec on Jul 26, 2009
This is in regard to your comment about Ted Carlson’s RotoTimes comments on the Pirates. Carlson is flippant but hardly analytical. Let me see if I can provide a fuller analysis. First the Pirates traded 8 players and got back 17 players and most younger than the players traded. For a team needing depth and prospects, on numbers alone not bad. So let’s look at the individual trades mentioned:
The Bay trade
Bay: starting LF, No. 3/4 hitter
Pirates traded Bay for LaRoche (25 yrs), Moss (25yr), Hanson (26 yrs) and Morris (21 yrs).
Bay is great run producer with 20 HRs, 72 rbis, 58 runs and 11 SBs and .252 average this year. However Bay is free agent in 2010 and has not reached agreement with SOX, so it was doubtful Pirates would have been able to sign him.
LaRoche is the current 3B starter with 4 HRs, 37 RBIS, 43 runs and 2 SBs and .264 average. His defense except for a run of errors in April has been stellar.
Moss, platooning in RF has 5 HRs, 27 RBIs, 32 runs, no SBs and hitting .252.
Hanson has been on 60 DL.
Morris is 2-5 with a 5.70 ERA at High A
This has been good for the Sox as they got rid of a cancer (Ramirez) and got production both last year and this year. However, the value of this trade to the Pirates will not be known for a couple of seasons.
The Nady/Marte trade
Pirates traded Nady and Marte (34 yrs) for pitchers Jeff Kartsens (26 yrs) , Daniel McCutchen (26 yrs), Ross Ohlendorf (26) and Tabata (21 yrs).
Nady is out the rest of the 2009 and his career is in serious jeopardy since he’ll be undergoing Tommy John surgery for a second time. Marte is on DL and posted only a 0-1 record with an ERA of 15.19 in 5.1 IPs this year.
Meanwhile Ohlendorf is 4th starter with 8-7 record and 4.59 ERA.
Karstens is spot starter and long reliever with 3-4 record and 4.26 ERA.
McCutcheon is at Triple A with 9-6 record, 4.03 ERA 79 Ks in 102.2 IPs.
Tabata is at Double A hitting .306, with 2 HRs, 24 RBIS, 27 Runs and 6 SBS.
Clearly, on health alone, this one favors the Pirates.
The McLouth Trade
Pirates traded Nate McLouth (29 yrs) for pitcher Charlie Morton, (25 yrs old) outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, (21 yrs) and pitcher Jeffrey Locke (21 yrs).
Overall McLouth has good production but low average, he is only starting to hit well with Atlanta. Overall this season, he has .257 BA, 15 HRs, 52 RBIS, 57 Runs, 13 SBs.
Meanwhile, Morton is part of the starting rotation and has a 2-2 record, ERA of 3.82 with 23 K’s in 32.2 IPs.
Hernandez, while at Double A, is hitting .264 (.290 overall in minors this year), with 2 HR, 12 RBIs, 18 Runs, 3 SBs but overall this season is hitting .293 with 31 RBIs, 51 runs, 13 SBs.
Locke is at High A with a 1-4 record, 5.94 ERA with Pirates minor league team but has overall has 64 K’s in 82 IPs.
Meanwhile trading McLouth opened up CF for McCutcheon (22 yrs) who since his call up has hit .293 with 3 HRs, 25 RBIs, 29 Runs and 9 SBs.
This trade favors the Pirates.
Morgan/Burnett Trade
Pirates traded Morgan (29 yrs) and Burnett (26 yrs) for Milledge (24 yrs) and Hanrahan (28 yrs).
Nyjer Morgan: starting OF, No. 1/2 hitter. Morgan has been productive with a .291 BA, 2 HRs, 30 RBIs, 50 Runs and 29 SBs. That is what you want in a lead-off hitter. And he plays defense with excellent range.
Sean Burnett: most consistent reliever – yes that is spot on. He has an ERA of 2.59 with 1-2 record and 1 save with 31 K’s in 41.2 IPs.
But Hanarahan who was 0-3 with five saves and a 7.96 ERA in 33 games in Washington has pitched effectively lowering his overall ERA to 6.92 in the 9 games pitched so far.
In trading Morgan, the Pirates opened up a position for Garret Jones. Let’s look at Jones since the trade. Since being brought up he is hitting .342, with 10 HRs, 15 RBIs, 16 Runs, 3 SBs in 76 Abs. Quite the production!
And Milledge has been progressing quite well at Triple A as he learns to play defense. Overall with the Pirates minor league teams he is hitting .323 with 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, 9 Runs, and 3 SBs in 68 ABs.
This trade benefited both teams.
Hinske Trade
Pirates traded Hinske (31 yrs) for pitcher Casey Erickson (23 yrs) and catcher/of Eric Fryer (24 yrs). Fryer has hit .241 with 2 HRs, 27 RBIs, 45 Runs and 11 SBs in the minors.
Erickson in the minors this year has a 6-4 record with an ERA of 1.84 with 50 K’s in 63.2 IPs.
Meanwhile Hinske has hit .266 with 5 HRs, 17 RBIs, 22 Runs and no SBs in the majors.
Both teams got want they wanted as the Pirates had other options for the parttime/pinch hitting role Hinske filled at a high salary.
Adam LaRoche Trade
Adam LaRoche (29 yrs) starting 1B, No. 4/5/6 hitter was traded for Diaz (22 yrs) and Strickland (20 yrs). LaRoche was being paid $7 million and was free agent in 2010.
He is not a 4/5/6 hitter – in fact for the Sox he is hitting 7th. There is no clutch hitting and little power for power position, but lots of K’s. According to one website: “eligible for free agency after this season, has been a disappointment to the Pirates, hitting .247 with 12 homers, 40 RBI and 81 strikeouts in 87 games. He has been slumping since July 4, going 5 for 46 (.109) with one RBI and 16 strikeouts. LaRoche was hitless in 22 at-bats during the slide.”
Overall LaRoche (29 yrs) hit .247 with 12 HRs, 40 RBIs, 46 Runs and 2 SBs for the Pirates – hardly the production needed at a power position.
Argenis Diaz is an acknowledged fielder but has only hit .253 with no HRs, 25 RBIs, 23 Runs and 7 SBs in 285 ABs this year. (Compare to Wilson who is hitting .264, 4 HRs, 26 RBIs, 31 RBIs, 26 Runs, 2 SBs in 261 at bats).
Hunter Strickland: 20, RHP, Low-A Not much stats but was ranked fifth in the Red Sox system with a 3.18 ERA and went 5-3 in 15 games/10 starts with the short-season Class A Lowell Spinners of the New York-Penn League last year.
The trade also cleared 1B for Pearce (26 yrs) who .286 with 13 homers and 54 RBIs in Triple-A this year although that has not translated to any success in the limited major league time he has had over the past two seasons.
Both teams got want they wanted.
Yes the Pirates front office in past years has been terrible. But Coonelly and Huntington in the two years they have been in charge have started to build from the minors up acquiring as many players with potential upsides as they can. That is the way to build long term success.
The bottom line – It is easy to be flippant, harder to actually analyze the trades.
By Ray Flowers on Jul 26, 2009
Marc-
Thanks for the long, thoughtful reply.
A few quick thoughts of mine.
The team is younger, but its very hard to argue they are better.
BAY DEAL – Hanson is always hurt, and cant throw strikes. Moss, a platoon guy as you mentioned. LaRoche – might be a decent fielder but its getting pretty close to the point that we can say he is a below average big league hitter for a 3B.
NADY – No one can predict injury. If he wasnt hurt, this one would have been a loss for the Pirates, that is unless ome of those pitchers develops into anything better than an average hurler.
McLOUTH – Roundly regarded as a loss for the Pirates. You don’t trade away CF who go 25/25f for a fourth starter and two minor leaguers.
MORGAN – If Lastings can keep his head on, big win for the Pirates.
Oh, and Garret Jones has been fantastic, but that is going to be one loud thud when he slows down.
LAROCHE- Traded one of seven 1B in baseball to go .270-20-85 the past three years for two minors leaugers, neither of which is predicted to become an all-star.
And I think that is the point here. The Pirates have given up either star, or borderline star talent for a large group of guys who are OK. The team is loaded with #4 and #5 starters at this point, and while there is some value in that, its hard to part with All-Star hitters for back of the rotation guys.
As for Ted – he was merely doing what good writers do – engaging his audience, and sometimes that means saying something provacative.
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