* Danys Baez signs with Phillies.
* Joel Pineiro still searching for team.
* Carlos Delgado returns to field.
* Mike Lowell has successful surgery.
By Ray Flowers
Marlon Byrd has reportedly signed a 3-year, $15 million deal to join the Cubs. Was it a good signing for a club that needed to replace the production of Milton Bradley?
By Ray Flowers
What the heck. I thought I might as well continue to plow through some of the potential HOFamers with the release of voting results mere days away (January 6th). Today I’ll touch on Andre Dawson, the highest vote getter in 2009 who wasn’t chosen for election to the Hall of Fame (he received 67.0 percent of the vote, just under the 75 percent minimum that is required).
To see my thoughts on others in this series simply click on the following links:
Andrew Dawson was the “modern day ballplayer” before there was the modern day ballplayer. Exceedingly athletic, powerful with the bat, his legs, and his arm, there was nothing this man couldn’t do on the ball field. Let me detail his exploits.
Blessed with a cannon of an arm, Dawson cut down runners frequently on his way to hauling in 6-straight Gold Gloves (1980-85) and eight overall.
Dawson was named to eight All-Star teams in his career.
Dawson won four Silver Slugger Awards.
Dawson won the NL MVP in 1987 (.287-49-137-90-11) and finished twice two other times (1981 and 1983). Overall he had 2.36 Career MVP Shares good for 67th all-time (a measure of how many votes a player picks up in MVP voting).
What about his overall numbers? Here are some of those.
Dawson hit 438 home runs in his career, 36th all-time.
Dawson knocked in 1,591 runs, 34th all-time.
Dawson scored 1,373 runs, 93rd all-time.
Dawson had 314 steals, 146th all-time.
Dawson produced 2,774 hits, 45th all-time.
Dawson hit 503 doubles, 48th all-time.
Dawson produced 1,039 extra base hits, 24th all-time.
And finally, you put that all together and — Dawson was one of only three men who have played the game who have hit more than 400-HRs with at least 300-SBs. The others two guys are named Willie Mays and Barry Bonds.
Moreover, in the decade of the 1980′s, few were better at the dish. Here is an average Dawson season in that time (1980-89): .285-25-90-81-20. That type of season would have helped to win many a fantasy baseball championship would it have not? Remember, offense wasn’t as prevalent back then so the numbers are actually better than they look on the face of it as well.
Clearly, he was very good for a very long time.
From the traditional measures to a couple of those new fangled measures that you may or may not be aware of.
HOF Career Standards (created by Bill James). A score of 50 is about “normal” for a HOF player, and Dawson checks in with a mark of 44 which is one point better than the 43 that one of last years inductees, Jim Rice, racked up in his career. That seems to paint Dawson in a slightly unfavorable light.
HOF Monitor (created by Bill James). A score of 100 is about “normal” for a HOF player, and Dawson has a mark of 118. Compared to Jim Rice though, he falls well off the pace (Rice has a 144 mark). In fact, Dawson falls well behind three other batters who failed to gain entry last season in Mark McGwire (170), Don Mattingly (134) and Dave Parker (124). This measure, and the one above, seem to signal that Dawson would be a fair option for the Hall of Fame, but far from an elite option – perhaps that’s why he still hasn’t been enshrined.
Andre Dawson isn’t a lock to be inducted in 2010, but sooner or later, much like Jim Rice, it appears that he will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. So in the words of Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber – “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
By Ray Flowers
Matt Holliday has apparently been offered $130 million over eight years to rejoin the Cardinals. Why won’t he accept the deal and return to the club?
By Ray Flowers
Jason Bay is on the verge of signing a 4-year, $66 million deal to play with the Mets. How will he do, and what does the signing mean to Matt Holliday?
By Ray Flowers
In yesterday’s column I championed Tim Raines for inclusion in the Hall of Fame in HOF: Tim Raines. Today, I’ll take a look at a player who in no way resembled the fleet of foot Raines, but that doesn’t mean that Fred McGriff doesn’t deserve some serious consideration for addition to the hallowed halls of the shrine in Cooperstown.
Consistency vs. Greatness
Yes he played in the era of the lively ball, expansion, and steroids, but Mr. McGriff was never even remotely attached to the muscle bounds freaks that dominated his era. Despite this fact, McGriff still posted some pretty special numbers over the years, though as you might gather from the title of this section, he never really took his game to the level of greatness. Here is what I mean.
* McGriff hit 493 homers in his career, good enough for a 26th place all-time tie with the incomparable Lou Gehrig.
* McGriff finished in the top-5 in his league in home runs seven times pacing his league twice (1989 and 1992).
* From 1988-1994 he hit at least 31 homers each season, and 10 times in his career he hit at least 30 bombs.
* Eight times he knocked in at least 100 runs, and four other times he was in the 90′s.
* Overall he knocked in 1,550 runs, the 41st best mark ever.
* McGriff finished with 958 extra base hits in his career, good enough for 42nd all-time (his 441 doubles rank 99th).
* McGriff produced a Runs Created mark of 1,704 – good for 45th all-time.
That’s a pretty darn impressive run of effectiveness. At the same time there is some downside as well.
First off, McGriff hit “only” .284 in his career with four season of at least .300. Solid numbers to be sure, but far from outstanding.
Second, though he hit all those homers he never reached 40 homers in a season. Heck, even a guy like Adrian Beltre did that once.
Third, despite all the RBI, he never once reached even 110 RBI in a season.
Fourth, never fleet of foot, McGriff scored 100 runs only twice and he never swiped more than eight bags in a season.
Fifth, and this is where the argument against McGriff is most acute, the man was named to only five All-Star teams. There were certainly a virtual pantheon of terrific first baseman chosen instead of McGriff through the years, but the fact of the matter is that McGriff was rarely, if ever, considered to be the best first baseman in his league. Moreover, McGriff had only one top-5 finish in the MVP voting (he was fourth in 1993).
A man that McGriff is often compared to is Willie McCovey because both men swung left-handed and played first base. How do McGriff’s career numbers stack up against the Giants’ great? Quite well actually.
McGriff: .284-493-1,550-1,349-72 with a .886 OPS
McCovey: .270-521-1,555-1,229-26 with a .889 OPS
Based solely on numbers, there is little difference between the two. Of course this leaves aside the real test which is comparing a players’ numbers to those men that played in the same era against the same level of competition. Without getting into an overly technical comparison in that respect, let me spell it out for you very clearly. McCovey was more highly thought of than McGriff during his career, not to mention that he produced his numbers in an era when pitchers had a much higher degree of success than they did during the majority of McGriff’s career.
Those people that voted for Jim Rice will also likely vote for McGriff. It’s not that it would be a horrible inclusion to the Hall, after all his totals in a myriad of categories do place him in a position to be considered one of the best, it’s just that for those of us who watched McGriff, did any of us ever think we were in the presence of greatness when we saw him sock a homer? As a voter the decision has to be made – do you reward consistency in which case McGriff is a lock, or do you sit back and say that the Hall of Fame is a place for greatness, and by that standard Fred McGriff can knock on the door though no one will ever answer.
By Ray Flowers
Hall of Fame talk is starting to heat up with the announcement of the 2010 inductees mere days away (January 6th). Some players eligible for the first time include Barry Larkin, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Roberto Alomar (you can read my thoughts on Alomar in Who Am I?). Other players who return hoping to pick up the required 75 percent vote this season include a host of some of the who’s who in the game the past 30 years: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire and Tim Raines. The last name on this list is who I’m going to focus on in this piece.
Long considered the best leadoff man in the National League during his career, Tim Raines had the misfortune of being the second best leadoff hitter in the game when he played. Mind you, there is no reason to hang ones head when you are #2 behind the man widely considered to be the best ever to fill the roll in Rickey Henderson, but clearly Raines falls behind Henderson in almost every way you can possible think of. Here are each man’s career bests in the 5×5 categories.
Raines: .334-18-68-133-90
Henderson:.325-28-74-146-130
Mind you the numbers are pretty close, but when we move to the realm of their career totals, the gap does widen.
Raines: .294-170-980-1,571-808
Henderson: .279-297-1,115-2,295-1,406
By the way, Henderson scored more runs and stole more bases than any man who ever lived.
Still, like I said at the start, the decision to vote for Raines shouldn’t be about Raines vs. Henderson, it should be about how Raines staked up against the competition. In this respect, he did very well.
Raines was named to 7-straight All-Star teams (1981-87).
Raines finished in the top-10 in AVG four times (led league at .334 in 1986).
Raines was top-10 in runs scored eight times (led league twice – 1983, 1987).
Raines led the NL in steals 4-straight years (1981-84). He also finished in the top-10 seven other times.
Raines finished in the top-10 in hits six times.
Raines finished in the top-10 in triples nine times.
Raines finished in the top-10 in OBP seven times (led league in 1986 at .413).
Raines finished in the top-10 in OPS four times.
Obviously Raines was one of the most effective players in the game for the majority of a decade as he enjoyed some tremendous success with the Expos. All told, that success led to some marks that clearly place him amongst the all-time greats that the game has ever seen.
Raines scored 1,571 runs, the 50th best total ever.
Raines produced 2,605 hits, the 73rd best total ever.
Raines stole 808 bases, the 5th best total ever.
Raines produced 1,636 Runs Created, the 53rd best mark ever.
Raines produced a 280.9 Power-Speed Number, the 28th best mark ever.
Yes, Mr. Raines was one hell of a player.
So why has he failed to break even 25 percent in the HOF vote in his first two go round in the voting process? My guess is that Raines fails in the most basic of comparisons – he simply wasn’t the best at what he did during his career failing to live up to the impossibly high standards of Henderson. Is that fair? Certainly not. There are a plethora of players enshrined in the Hall who may not have been “the best” when they were playing, just think of the comparison of Yankee teammates Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Should Gehrig have been denied admittance to the Hall since he wasn’t even the best player on his team? Of course not.
In the end I have no idea why Raines has gotten such little respect for what he accomplished as he was clearly the best leadoff man in the National League in the 1980′s. It might take a while for Raines to get his due but I certainly hold out hope that one of these years he will be recognized for what he was, and that was one of the best players every to hit atop of a major league lineup.
DEROSA TO GIANTS?
By Ray Flowers
This is the most wonderful time of the year. Besides being lyrics from a song, it is also how I feel. I love Halloween, I gussie the place all up with scary sounds, figures, even had a fog machine cranking this year, but I still love the Christmas season the most. I even enjoy, and don’t share this with anyone, hot chocolate and those sappy holiday movies that they play on Lifetime (did I just lose my street cred?).
Before I head out to spend the next couple of days with my extended family, I thought I would list a few things that I hope people in the sports world will either find in their stocking or under their tree come Christmas morning (for those of you who don’t celebrate Christmas, Happy Holidays).
To the San Jose Sharks: Playoff success to avoid a mutiny amongst the fans.
To the 49ers and the Raiders: A winning season. Heck, even an 8-8 mark would be terrific.
To Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes, Coco Crisp, Erik Bedard, Troy Glaus and Josh Hamilton: A full season of health. If you missed my review of the Glaus to Atlanta signing, click on Glaus Signs With Braves.
To Matt Holliday: I hope your agent, the reviled Scott Boras, can deliver the goods on what he surely promised would be a deal approaching $150 million. Right now it doesn’t seem like anyone has any interest in ponying up dollars that even remotely approach that total.
To Johnny Damon: Another Boras client, I wish him. Heck, I don’t wish him much of anything as he already has a beautiful wife to come home to.
To Brandon Morrow: I hope Santa brings you a heaping helping of control for the holiday. I’m still shocked that the Mariners gave up you so easily. You can read my analysis of the trade in The Other Deal.
To the New York Yankees: I wish you — well my mother told me if I didn’t have something nice to say then I shouldn’t say it, and in the spirit of the season I’m gonna stick to that. I will list a few of my “Tweets” from the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page that should make what I think pretty obvious.
“Yankees payroll last season was $220 mil, $77.8 mil MORE than any other club. In fact, MORE than 11 other teams payrolls!”
“Yankees only team to pay luxury tax in 2009 – $25.7 mil. They have paid all seven years of existence, $174 of $190 raised overall.”
To the San Francisco Giants: I wish you a heart like the Tin Man in the Wizard of Oz. Hell, I wish that you also had courage like the Cowardly Lion and a brain like the Scarecrow. Are you really going to just sit there knowing full well that your offense is putrid and do nothing to improve it? Newsflash, 2-years and $12 million for Mark DeRosa likely won’t be enough for a guy who thinks he is worth 3/$30 (even if he isn’t worth that). Do something big will ya Giants? Wait, wasn’t I supposed to keep this positive? Sorry for slipping.
To Garrett Atkins: I wish a return to prominence from the one-time borderline star. I’m not talking a return to his previously phat totals (.329-29-130-117 in 2006), but a nice .285-25-85 season would be great.
To Justin Duchscherer: I wish him peace. I hope he returns to prominence on the field, be it as a reliever or a starter, and I hope he got the help he needed to deal with his clinical depression. In fact, I wish the same for Joey Votto who also dealt with some tough times after losing his father.
At this time of year it’s good to remember what is truly important in life. Homers and shutouts are great, but it’s people that truly matter. So give thanks, wish someone a happy holiday season, and don’t be afraid to extend a helping hand to someone who might need it. Tis’ the season to be jolly remember?
BREAKING DOWN MATT CAPPS TO NATS
By Ray Flowers
Troy Glaus is the newest member of the Atlanta Braves after signing an incentive laden one year deal with the club ending his tenure with the Cardinals (early estimates place the deal at $2 million plus whatever incentives he reaches). Does the former slugger have any juice left?
A first round pick, third overall in 1997, Glaus broke in with the Angels and in his first full season he socked 29 long balls. Over the next three years (2000-02) he socked 47, 41 and 30 taters, each year also knocking in over 100-runs, before injuries began to strike. In 2003 he was limited to 91 games, and the following year things were even worse with a mere 58 games played. In 2005, his only year with the D’backs, he re-established himself as a power force with 37 HR and 97 RBI, totals just under what he produced in his first season in Toronto (38, 104). His second season in Toronto (’07) was once again filled with injury as he was limited to 115 games. He again rebounded in his first year in St. Louis hitting 27 homers with 99 RBI before a completely wasted 2009 season that saw him take the field only 14 times.
Why did he play a career-low 14 games? His shoulder, operated on in January, simply never came around to the point where he could make the throw across the diamond from third base. The Cards tried him in the outfield for a while thinking it would be less strenuous on his arm making the odd throw from the outfield, but that idea was eventually scrapped. Given the deterioration of his wing, Glaus has pretty much been pigeonholed as either a first baseman or a DH, and given that St. Louis has a pretty fair option at first in Albert Pujols, he really had no place in St. Louis. Hence the move to Atlanta makes sense as he will be asked to play first base after the Braves decided to let Adam LaRoche walk.
At this point what does Glaus have left? Honestly, that is anyone’s guess. A shoulder is so vital to a players swing that an issue in the joint could easily sap the power from a player’s swing by hindering his ability to whip the bat through the strike zone. Given my personal fondness for Glaus, unintentionally my swing was basically a mirror image of his (or was his a copy of mine, I mean I am three years older), I wish the man luck. However, this is a tenuous situation. The Braves reportedly went over every scrap of medical data they could get their hands on and they were apparently assured that Glaus would be able to physically hold up to the rigors of the season. While I have a hard time believing Glaus will be able to suit up for 140 games and match the production that LaRoche would have offered, the club did save millions of dollars that they can allocate for other needs. And heck, what if Glaus rebounds to the hitter he once was? After all, he has been pretty darn good in his career.
* Glaus has won two Silver Slugger Awards.
* Glaus has made four All-Star teams.
* Glaus has four seasons of at least 37 homers. By the way, there are only two third basemen who have ever lived that have more 37 homer seasons (Mike Schmidt had seven, Eddie Matthews had six, and Harmon Killebrew also had four). Moreover, every season of his career in which he has accrued 500-ABs (there have been seven), Glaus has hit at least 27 bombs
* Glaus has six seasons of at least 97 RBI.
IF Glaus is healthy, and I put that “if” in caps for a reason, the Braves may have rostered a nice power bat on the cheap. However, if I was the Braves I’d have a Plan B at the ready because I’m far from convinced that Glaus will be able to return to the heights he has previously flashed.
A RECAP OF THE DEAL
By Ray Flowers
Earlier today I broke down the big deal of the day as the Yankees picked up Javier Vazquez in exchange for Melky Cabrera and a couple of prospects (you can read all about the deal at Breaking Down: Javier Vazquez). Here, I’ll break down “the other deal” dealing with two potentially dominating righties.
Note: You can also read Paul Bruno’s take on the deal at JaysFan.com.
THE DEAL
Mariners receive: RHP Brandon League and minor leaguer (either OF Yohermyn Chavez or C Brian Jeroloman)
Blue Jays receive: Brandon Morrow.
Mariners Haul
We don’t know yet which minor leaguer will be included with Brandon League. Neither option is a top flight, sure fire star at the big league level, but most pundits seem to favor Chavez even though he isn’t amongst the top-10 prospects in the Blues organization (Jeroloman can pick it behind the dish, but his bat is sorely lacking).
League throws a heavy, and I mean power-sinking fastball that has averaged 95.5 mph during his big league career. When you combine that heat with the darting, downward action, it’s hardly a surprise that League has held batters to a .258 batting average in his career (the surprise is that the number is that high). A potentially dominating strikeout arm – he had 76 punchouts in just 74.2 innings last season – League is much, much better than the 3-6 record with a 4.58 ERA that he posted last season. The biggest plus on his side is that he has brought his walk rate down two years running, and last years 2.53 BB/9 mark allowed him to post a strong 3.62 K/BB ratio given his strikeout abilities. And that is just it. If League throws strikes and avoids the walk he could potentially dominate. Don’t forget that this man owns a 3.13 GB/FB ratio in his career, and when you strike out a batter per inning and have a GB/FB mark better than three, well, they usually end up putting your face on the cover of a video game.
Blue Jays Haul
Brandon Morrow was drafted 5th overall out of the University of California at Berkley in 2006. Standing 6’3″ and weighing about 200 lbs, Morrow has one of those arms that scouts simply fall all over themselves to sign. The owner of a 95 mph fastball, batters have little chance to hit him when he is “on,” a fact reflected in his .223 BAA mark through 197.2 career innings. In that time Morrow has posted a solid 3.96 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning with 204, so why would the Mariners consider trading this 25 year old who most scouts think will either be a #2 or #3 starter? The Mariners must have grown tired of his inability to throw strikes. In his brief career, remember batters hit just .223 against him and he owns a 9.29 K/9 mark, Morrow has handed out free passes like Santa gives out hope during the Christmas season. Morrow posted a 5.68 BB/9 mark last season in 69.2 innings and that was an improvement over his career mark of 5.83.
It should also be pointed out that he has spent time as a starter and reliever (the Mariners yanked him around the past two years which certainly hasn’t helped his development). Here are his numbers in both roles.
Reliever: 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.12 K/9, .217 BAA in 118.1 IP
Starter: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.05 K/9, .232 BAA in 79.1 IP
The numbers regress a bit when he has starts, hardly a shock given the 100 percent all the time attitude hurlers can take when working only an inning out of the bullpen.
MOVING FORWARD
As nice a power arm as League has, and let’s face the Mariners are certainly wise to be hedging their bets with David Aardsma who had a lot of ninth inning success last year despite some rather odd totals in his pitching line (like a sky-high fly ball rate but a miniscule HR/F mark), I just don’t understand this deal at all. Morrow certainly needs to figure out a way to harness his stuff, but if he does this young man is a potential all-star. Not that he will ever amount to anything remotely like guys such as Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax, but the history of the game is littered with plenty of hard throwers who took a few years to get their barrings (it’s also why a guy like Oliver Perez is making $12 million a year). If Aardsma implodes and League goes on to save 30 games than no one will likely be too upset, but if Morrow locates his control and rips off a bunch of 15 victory, 200 K seasons this is going to look like one awful move. You gotta love what the Blue Jays are doing this off-season as their new front office group clearly is bringing in boatloads of talent to vie for major league jobs.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
