Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb 25, 2010

(1) Carl Crawford is no longer negotiating with Rays meaning this is almost assuredly his last season with the club.

(2) Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan receive positive news in regards to their injuries

(3) Adam Dunn working on defense at 1B for Nationals.

(4) Alfonso Soriano reporting that his knee is improving.

(5) Brad Lidge throwing – showing improvement. Still hopes to make opening day.

(6) Francisco Liriano has Twins excited with the return of his “stuff.”

(7) Jose Batista to bat leadoff for Blue Jays – uh oh.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb 24, 2010

(1) Russell Branyan to start at 1B for Indians sending Matt LaPorta to left field and Michael Brantley to Triple-A.

(2) Cliff Lee throws for first time since minor foot surgery.

(3) Astros to have 9th inning competition between Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom. You can read my thoughts in Breaking Down: Lyon/Lindstrom.

(4) Josh Hamilton injures shoulder.

(5) Livan Hernandez signs with Nationals for $900,000 plus incentives.

(6) Hank Blalock to Marlins/Rays as left-handed power bat off bench?

(7) Chad Qualls undervalued on draft day with an ADP of over 200.

(8) Olympic anguish with ice hockey being taped delayed. You can witness my frustration at USA Olympic Hockey Delay.

By Ray Flowers

USA Olympic Hockey Delay

A diatribe against NBC and their idiotic decision to tape delay the matchup between the United States and Switzerland until after the game is completed.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What is It?

This is the time of year when everyone is firing off their top-whatever lists ranking players in fantasy baseball. Those lists certainly have value as they give you an idea of what the “experts” are thinking in terms of player value, but they are really only half the story. Just because I have Howie Kendrick as my 11th second baseman, doesn’t tell you two things. (1) It doesn’t tell you where he is being drafted (maybe everyone else has him 16th?). (2) It doesn’t tell you when he is being drafted? That’s where ADP comes into play.

What is ADP? Simply put, it means Average Draft Position. What is that? It’s just what it says – in a standard draft when, on average, is the player being drafted? This information is crucial. Let’s return to our example of Howie Kendrick.

Again, let’s postulate my rankings system has Kendrick at 11th amongst second basemen. Therefore, you would most likely want to draft Kendrick after the top-10 second sackers were out of the way right (duh)? Now I trust my own draft list so I would have a lot of confidence in it on draft day, but I would be foolish not to check out what others were thinking. The best way to do this is to look over ADP information from a source, something like Couch Managers for example. That site offers draft software which enables people to do as many mock drafts as time permits. After those drafts, the site then compiles all the data and presents its ADP data based up on all the drafts for a specific time frame. This way you can average out the Anaheim crazy who drafted Kendrick 5th at the position as well as those leagues that are scared away by his poor track record of health causing him to fall to 22nd. The resulting number would be his “average” draft position (how convenient given the title of this piece, no?) This is the real world information you need in order to know where he is being drafted at the position as well as where he is being drafted overall.

Let’s take a look at the actual data.

Currently, Kendrick has an ADP of 173 according to Couch Managers. This means that he is going 173rd overall in standard leagues. So, if you are trying to decide if you should take him with the 122nd pick overall, you’d likely be able to wait at least another round or two before being pressed into having to make a decision. If you think Kendrick can be the 122nd most valuable player you can certainly draft him at that spot, but the ADP information allows you to understand that you don’t need to draft him that early – that is if you buy into the law of averages and what others are doing.

Secondarily, ADP data obviously gives you an understanding of where amongst the hierarchy at the position a player is being selected. Again, if I have him at 11th yet his ADP value shows him to be going 18th at the position as he is according to Couch Managers, I may be able to wait a bit longer before pulling the trigger on the Angels’ second sacker.

Third, ADP data is also useful because it can help to solidify some tiering thoughts in your mind. As an example, at second base Dan Uggla has an ADP of 87, 11th at the position. The 12th man on the list, Asdrubal Cabrera, isn’t being drafted until 120th overall. That means the average fantasy drafter clearly sees a big gap in the perceived value of second basemen with 33 spots in the overall rankings separating #11 from #12. Useful information, right?

In future pieces I’ll break down some of those players that I think are going off the board too early, as well as some of those that might be great draft day bargains, but I wanted to make sure we were all on the same page when it came to ADP data before I moved into the nitty gritty of it.

And finally, in case you missed it, one of the greatest sports stories I have ever come across showed up today, and I would be remiss if I didn’t direct you towards it. It involves a wiener, a guys eye, and a mascot, and if you think that sounds oddly enticing do yourself a favor and click on the link to Living Up the Nickname. Trust me, you won’t regret spending a few minutes on this one.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.22, 2010

(1) Johnny Damon finally signs with Tigers: 1-year, $8 million.

(2) Jonny Gomes signs with Reds.

(3) Mets – Jose Reyes to hit third, Carlos Beltran to miss April?Former Met Carlos Delgado has second hip surgery.

(4) Khalil Greene out in Texas. Will the Mike Lowell trade to be revisited?

(5) Rich Harden hopes to make 180 innings with Rangers.

(6) Alfonso Soriano dealing with knee – he is concerned.

(7) Brian Roberts – is his back injury serious?

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Spring Training Begins

(1) Eric Gagne to sign with Rockies?
*After this video was made, Gagne signed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal.

(2) Ted Lilly having knee issues.

(3) Brad Lidge struggles due to tipping pitches?

(4) Blue Jays arms on the mend – Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum.

(5) Brian Roberts dealing with back spasms.

(6) Wade Davis – no IP limit with Rays?

(7) Cliff Lee’s foot progressing well. Should throw next week.

(8) Joel Hanrahan having elbow issues. May need surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Braun’s Brilliance

A year after being a bit unsure about this guy because of his lack of patience and a whole bunch of strikeouts, I’m finally sold on the superlative slugger from the Brewers. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t a naysayer last year, but I did have my doubts about whether or not he could be a top-10 fantasy performer (I was thinking more like top-20). Turns out I was wrong. I think Ryan Braun could go 30/30 this year, he seems a fair bet to at go 30/20 as he did last season, and if he continues to show growth in his plate discipline he could rival Albert Pujols in the Triple Crown categories. Given that, I thought it might be fun to compare Pujols and Braun’s first three seasons in the league to one another, though remember that Braun was called up late in 2007 and appeared in only 117 games as a rookie while Pujols appeared in 161 games in his freshman season.

Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a .363 OBP and .574 SLG in 1,697 ABs

Pujols: .334-114-381-367-28 with a .412 OBP and .613 SLG in 1,771 ABs

OK, Braun clearly comes up short, but Pujols does arguably own the greatest three season run to open a career of any man who has ever played the game. Therefore, let’s lower the bar a bit and compare Braun’s first three season to some of the best hitters of recent memory to see how he stacks up. In order to make this comparison fair to everyone, I’ll list each players first three “full seasons” in the bigs since no one hits .324 with 34 homers in their rookie season as Braun did. This gives “the field” an advantage over Braun whose numbers come from his true rookie season and following two campaigns. Can anyone use that edge to best Braun’s barometer of success?

Miguel Cabrera: .318-92-342-319-15 with a .394 OBP and .547 SLG in 1,792 ABs

Prince Fielder: .276-112-302-277-12 with a .372 OBP and .536 SLG in 1,730 ABs

Todd Helton: .336-102-358-30-15 with a .415 OBP and .607 SLG in 1,688 ABs

Matt Holliday: .326-89-338-307-35 with a .387 OBP and .571 SLG in 1,171 ABs

Manny Ramirez: .315-90-307-278-16 with a .405 OBP, .559 SLG in 1,595 ABs

Alex Rodriguez: .322-101-331-364-90 with a .375 OBP and .562 SLG in 1,874 ABs

Mark Teixeira: .282-107-340-279-9 with a .362 SLG and .541 SLG in 1,718 ABs

Chase Utley: .310-82-310-328-40 with a .388 OBP and .543 SLG in 1,731 ABs

David Wright: .314-83-325-308-71 with a .396 OBP and .534 SLG in 1,761 ABs

———-

Ryan Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a 363/.574/.937 line in 1,697 ABs

Braun is the only player surveyed, other than Pujols and Teixeira, whose production is from his first three seasons in the bigs, while all others were from their first three “full seasons.”

So what does all of this mean? A couple of points stand out.

(1) Braun’s combination of batting average and home runs is nearly unmatched by any of the games current crop of stars. Only Braun, Helton and A-Rod hit at least .305 with 100 homers.

(2) Only A-Rod and Wright can match Braun’s 5×5 talents across the board.

(3) Braun is off to a start that, if not for Albert Pujols, could legitimately be called the best three season run to start a major league players career in 15 years. Sign me up for some bratwursts and Braun Milwaukee as there is little doubt in my mind that he is the top option in the outfield for fantasy leagues in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers