The Value of Jeter

Everyone says Derek Jeter stinks. His range is down, as is his production at the plate, and as a result it seems like everyone, even the New York faithful, have turned on the future Hall of Fame shortstop. What are my thoughts on Jeter including his 2011 fantasy prospects? Before I get to that, let’s review the current situation.

The Negotiations

(1) Jeter is a 36 year old free agent.

(2) The Yankees have offered Jeter a 3-year, $45 million contract.

(3) Jeter apparently wants $23-24 million a year for at least four years. He wouldn’t mind five or six though.

(4) GM Brian Cashman basically told the press that if Jeter doesn’t like the offer he was given he can take his act on the road and try to convince someone else to give him more money.

I will admit that it does seem very odd that Jeter thinks he should get $20 million a year since he is 36 years old, but don’t forget three salient factors, in the form of current Yankees’ players, that are likely weighing on his mind.

A.J. Burnett: This righty, coming off the worst season of his career, will make $16.5 million a year for each of the next three years.

Jorge Posada: The 39 year old catcher/DH will make $13.1 million this year, not a had chunk of change for a guy who will turn 40 during the season and one that has 551 at-bats the past two years.

Alex Rodriguez: He will be 36 in July. Here are his contract totals the next seven years – $31 million, $29 million, $28 million, $25 million, $21 million, $20 million, $20 million.

It’s a difficult hard to fault Jeter for asking what he is when Arod will be making $20 million a year when he is 42 years old, especially considering what Jeter means to the Yankees franchise.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Jeter is coming off his worst full season since, well, ever. He produced his lowest batting average (.270), tied his career-low in homers (10), had his worst OBP ever (.340) and saw his slugging percentage drop to a laughable level (.370) leading to an OPS of .710, some .127 points below his career mark. So all hope is lost right? Not so fast…

Jeter, hitting atop a loaded Yankees lineup, scored 111 runs. That total not only lead all shortstops, it was tied for fourth best in all of baseball.

Jeter knocked in 67 runs, only nine less than Hanley Ramirez and six more than Stephen Drew.

Jeter stole 18 bases, only four less than Rafael Furcal and one more than Jimmy Rollins.

Add it all up and Jeter had 10 homers, 67 RBI, 111 runs and 18 steals. Do you know how many shortstops in baseball reached all of those figures? Obviously the answer is none because he led shortstops in runs. How about this one – how many players in baseball went 10-65-110-15? The answer is three: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez and Mr. Jeter.

There are still concerns with Jeter.

He struck out 16.0 percent of the time, a 4-year high. I t was still below his 16.9 percent career mark though.

His line drive rate fell to 16.1 percent. Given that he owns a 20.2 percent mark, and that he had never been below 17.9 percent in a season, I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Still, there are issues.

(1) As a result of the loss in the LD-rate, his BABIP mark was just .307, .049 points below his career mark.

(2) Always a ground ball machine, his GB-rate went through the roof as he posted a 65.7 percent mark in 2010. That’s only a good thing if you are Michael Bourn. If you are Derek Jeter, does it signal that you have lost bat speed resulting in an increasing number of feeble ground balls – and another reason why that line drive rate of his tanked?

So how do I view Jeter in 2011 as a fantasy shortstop? I’m buying. We all know Jeter will return to the Yankees despite all the recent garbage, and I expect he will once again hit at the top of the lineup. Give him a little bit of a bounce back in the batting average category, and a continuation of the rest of his performance, and Jeter is solidly in the top-8 amongst shortstops (see Top-10 SS for 2011), and one that might come at more of a discount than he should since everyone seems to think he is washed up.

By Ray Flowers

Californian’s on the Move

Uribe to Dodgers

Jose Uribe, coming off a career best season of 24 homers and 85 RBI, signed a 3-year deal for $21 million to leave the World Champion San Francisco Giants (it’s still an amazing feeling to write that), to move south to join the Dodgers. He now becomes a hated player in this writers’ household as he joined the Dodgers placing his name alongside the likes of Benedict Arnold.

Now I’m not saying that the Giants should have matched the offer, they certainly should not have. It’s too much money, and too many years for Uribe. Why the Dodgers would give him that contract for Uribe to play second base is also a mystery. They already have 37 year old Casey Blake at third, and an aging an injury prone Rafael Furcal at short which means that Uribe will play second base. He’ll give them ample power for that spot (he’ll still qualify at third and shortstop in fantasy baseball 2011 as well), but let’s put things in perspective.

Uribe is a career .256 hitter who batted .248 last season.

Uribe never walks. His career-high was in 2010 when he walked all of 45 times. As a result, his OBP is .300 for his career. Not his batting average, his OBP. That’s dreadful when you consider that the league average since 2001. the start of his career, is .337.

Though he has hit 20-homers four times, he has averaged only 17 homers per 500 at-bats in his career. Speaking of 500 at-bats, he has only eclipsed that mark twice (2007 and 2010), and his career SLG of .431 is just five points better than the league average during his career.

Uribe also has no speed with only seven steals the last five seasons.

Only once in three years has he hit more than 16 homers.
Only once in three years has he scored more than 50 runs.
Only once in three years has he had more than 55 RBI.
Only once in three years has he hit over .250.

To wrap it up, the Dodger gave a 33 year old versatile infielder who has averaged, per 500 at-bats in his career a line of.256-17-69-63 with a .731 OPS, $7 million a year for three years. I can’t envision a scenario where they don’t end up regretting that.

Torrealba to Rangers

Yorvit Torrealba left the Padres to join the Rangers as he signed a 2-year deal for $6.25 million. Yorvit will replace Bengie Molina as the Rangers #1 man behind the dish (it’s not known if Molina will retire or look for another deal).

Torrealba had a Catcher’s ERA of 3.14 in 2010, and that was the best mark in Padres history for a catcher who appeared in 81 or more games. It was also the lowest since Paul Lo Duca posted the same mark in 2003 for the Dodgers. The Rangers had the 4th best ERA in the AL in 2010 with a 3.93 mark, so Yorvit will have a solid staff to work with.

As for his offense, it’s pretty fair for a catcher. It’s always hard to tell how good a guy is when his playing time is sporadic, and that is certainly the case with Torrealba who has had only one season in his career of more than 325 at-bats. Torrealba has 538 at-bats the past two years, basically a full season, an in that time he has hit .279 with nine homers, 68 RBI, 58 runs and a .725 OPS. He also moves from arguably the worst hitting park in baseball in San Diego for one of the best in Texas, and that should certainly help his production. All told, he is a sure fire starting in AL-only leagues, and he has a legit shot to be a solid second catcher in mixed leagues as well, especially if he is able to increase his at-bat total a bit. This deal, unlike the one given to Uribe, seems like a really good move for the Rangers, especially when a guy like John Buck got 3-years and $18 million from the Marlins.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know…

I throw up one of these pieces every once in a while, an as we all head off to our 2010 Turkey Day celebrations I thought it apropos to look back and give thanks for some rather interesting production from the men on the diamond

Did You Know… Jose Bautista scored 49.5 percent of his runs by knocking himself in as he went deep 54 times while scoring 109 runs (the homers led baseball, the runs were 6th)? Albert Pujols, who led baseball with 115 runs, only knocked himself in 36.5 percent of the time. The only player who scored 100 runs this season while hitting less than 10 homers was the Tigers’ Austin Jackson who scored 103 times while hitting just four long balls.

Did You Know… Ian Desmond led baseball with 34 errors, seven more than any other player (Starlin Castro, 27 errors)? Castro may have caught him if he had played a full compliment of games as the Cubs’ shortstop suited up for only 123 games, 27 less than Desmond. These young shortstops both have bright futures, but both could stand to tidy things up on defense.

Did You Know… Prince Fielder was the only player in baseball to hit under .265 while posting an OBP of at least .380? Fielder hit just .261 though his 114 walks – the most in baseball – helped him to a .401 OBP. Moreover, he was the only player in baseball to post an OBP of at least .395 who didn’t hit at least .300. Yeah he had a “down” year, but Fielder was pretty darn productive despite the prevailing wisdom that he was awful because he had only 83 RBI.

Did You Know… Jeff Keppinger had the best BB/K mark in baseball amongst qualifiers (502 plate appearances) with a 1.42 mark? He was followed by arguably the two best hitters in baseball in Albert Pujols (1.36) and Joe Mauer (1.23), who in turn were followed by the only two other men in baseball who posted a mark of at least 1:1 (Daric Barton – 1.23, Chase Utley – 1.00). At the other end of the spectrum we have Andruw Jones at 0.19. If we had seven Andruw Jones and we added them together that we would still come up short of the mark of Keppinger (1.33 to 1.42).

Did You Know… Juan Pierre led baseball with 18 caught stealing attempts? Of course, he also led baseball with 68 steals so we can overlook the CS run. Still, 18 is a pretty big number when you consider that he was caught stealing more times than Nelson Cruz or Jimmy Rollins were successful (they each had 17 steals).

Did You Know… Albert Pujols is more than just a hitter as he actually led baseball in putouts (1,458), total chances (1,619) and double plays (146) in the field? He also made only four errors on the year leading to a .998 fielding percentage once again showing that he might be the most complete player in baseball – even if the talk of his greatness is usually limited to his work at the dish.

Did You Know… Mark Reynolds is the only player in baseball who hit at least 30 homers in 2010 yet failed to rap out at least 23 doubles? Reynolds had only 17. Given that he hit 28 and 30 the previous two years, his ’10 effort has to be seen as a downer. Of course, he also fell from 24 steals to just seven, while his average fell .044 points below his career rate of .242, so it wasn’t just the loss of doubles that led many a Reynolds owner to consider hitting the bottle at 11 AM in the morning through most of the 2010 season.

By Ray Flowers

Who Needs September?

Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP on Tuesday despite the fact that he played all of five games after August 31st. Was that honor deserved? Let’s explore this and other issues surrounding the 2010 AL MVP Vote.

Back in early October, I wrote a piece entitled Who is the AL MVP? I chose Miguel Cabrera as the winner of the award, over Hamilton, and here is the most germane point to my belief that Hamilton should not have been the winner. Hamilton became the first player to appear in fewer than 15 games in September to win an MVP award since 1960 (Dick Groat). Think about that. Hamilton played the fewest September games of any MVP in half a century. Given that Cabrera was virtually the same performer over the course of the year, and that he did “it” over 27 more games, it seems obvious to me that he should have been the selection. Apparently, I’m in the minority as people seem to still cling to the belief that the winner of the award should come from a playoff bound team if everything else is basically equal. Apparently “equal” is achieved when a guy plays a full month less of the season than someone else.

Some more facts.

(1) This marked the sixth time a Ranger won the award: Juan Gonzalez (1996, 98), Jeff Burroughs (1974), Ivan Rodriguez (1999) and Alex Rodriguez (2003).

(2) Hamilton was the 10th CF ever to win the award in the American League (a CF has won the award five times in the NL).

Now on to the rest of the voting.

27 first place votes went to Hamilton and Cabrera. Where did the last one go? It went to major league home run leader Jose Bautista who came in 4th overall. The one man to vote for Jose Bautista as the winner was Shi Davidi from Toronto.

Carl Crawford came in 7th in the voting with 98 points as he was left off seven ballots. He could have earned a $700,000 bonus if all seven of those empty ballots had placed him 7th or higher. Another Ray, Evan Longoria, cam in 6th in the voting with 100 points.

Delmon Young finished 10th in the voting. I admit the .298-21-112 line is mighty solid, but do you really think Delmon was the 10th most valuable player in the AL in 2010 when he posted a .333 OBP an a .826 OPS? I certainly don’t, not when the AL average for OBP was .327 or when you realize that his OPS was merely 20th amongst qualifiers.

Twins’ teammate Jim Thome finished with more MVP points (two), than guys like Mark Teixeira (one) and Joakim Soria (one). Thome was terrific this season hitting an impressive .283/.412/.627, but he was limited to only 25 homers because of just 276 at-bats. How he got any AL MVP love is totally beyond me.

As for hurlers, the highest ranking pitcher on the list was another Ray – Rafael Soriano – who finished with 21 points. I think he did a wonderful job, but I still find it odd that he was the top pitcher in the voting. To further build on the voting madness with pitchers, AL Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez received six points, runner up David Price zero, and third place finisher CC Sabathia got 13. If you don’t understand that join the fricken club.

By Ray Flowers

Votto A Runaway Winner?

Every time I pat the voters on the back, like I did for their AL Cy Young selection of Felix Hernandez, they turn around and do something a bit odd. In a piece entitled Who is the NL MVP?, I made a case for a narrow, and I mean razor thin, victory for Joey Votto over Albert Pujols. The Baseball Writers Association of America got it right in giving the award to Votto, so what am I scratching my head over? The results. Here they are:

Joey Votto: 31 1st place votes, one 2nd, for 443 points
Albert Pujols: one first, 21 2nd, eight 3rd, one 4th, one sixth, for 279 points
Carlos Gonzalez: 0-7-13-5-4-2-1, for 240 points.

Votto and Pujols were the only two players listed on every ballot. I have no idea in the world how CarGo wasn’t deemed at least the 10th best player by one voter who should have their credentials revoked, but I’m even more aghast at the fact that Votto was a near unanimous selection. Again, I’m not saying that Votto didn’t deserve the award, but 31 of 32 first place votes? After all, Pujols did lead the NL in RBI (118) and runs (115), it’s not like he as crushed in a myriad of other categories by Votto.

Pujols: .312/.414/.596, 42 HRs, 14 SBs, 39 doubles, 103 BB, 76 Ks
Votto: .324/.424/.600, 37 HRs, 16 SBs, 36 doubles, 91 BB, 125 Ks

There is simply no way that I can fathom this situation ending up with Votto being a near unanimous selection.

Let the bashing of me begin since I’m sure I will get a host of emails saying ‘but Votto’s Reds made the playoffs’ to which I will reply – so flipping what? This isn’t tennis folks. Baseball is a team game, and no matter how great a player is, no one person can win anything by his lonesome. This is about as tired an argument as I ever come across, and year after year you hear countless people espousing this nonsense. As near as I can figure it, this very line of reasoning must have been why Adrian Gonzalez received 197 points while Ryan Braun picked up only 19. After all, the Padres just missed the playoffs and the Brewers were well under .500 at 77-85. I would be much more willing to accept a line of argument along the lines of (a) Gonzalez plays in atrocious park for hitters and (b) he had all of that success with hardly any support in the lineup. Still, results are results, and I just don’t see how Gonzalez demolished Braun in the vote given their production.

Gonzalez: .298-31-101-87 with a .393 OBP, .511 SLG
R. Braun: .304-25-103-101-14 with a .366 OBP, .501 SLG

Speaking of Braun, I had him fourth on my ballot. It’s possible that I took too much of a “fantasy centered” approach in selection Braun for his 5×5 talents, but there is NO FLIPPING WAY that he should have finished behind Jayson Werth (52 points), Martin Prado (51 points) and Ryan Howard (50 points). I love Buster Posey (40 points), but he also shouldn’t have been ahead of Braun either. I don’t what is more shocking – Scott Rolen (26 points) finishing higher than Braun or Ryan Howard getting a second place vote for his worst full season ever? What cruel joke is being played here?

One final point. How in the world does Roy Halladay finish 6th in the NL MVP vote with 130 points when Adam Wainwright, who produced nearly identical totals this season (you can read about that situation in NL Cy Young and an Import) received just 12 points?

Someone has some explaining to do.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Offseason Moves

Mariano Rivera wants two years from the Yankees – and they will be more than happy to give him that on his next contract offer. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, wants at least four with some reports hinting that he would actually prefer five or six years. Seems like the Yankees aren’t buying as they are set to officially offer him a 3-year, $45 million deal. Given that Jeter’s defense at short is sliding, that he is 36 years old, and that he is coming off the worst full season of his career (.270-10-67-111-18), it’s more than a fair offer. At the same time Jeter is Mr. Yankee, and if he were to bolt the team the revolt from the fans would be a P.R. nightmare. Look for the two sides to eventually settle on a four year deal – Jeter isn’t going anywhere – even if he isn’t the player he was just a couple of seasons ago.

Magglio Ordonez is apparently fully recovered from ankle surgery and he is ready to start looking for a place to ply his wares in 2011. His agent is Scott Boras, so you can count out small market clubs since Boras has probably put together a presentation saying that Ordonez is a better right-handed hitter than Albert Pujols. I will say this for Ordonez, he rebounded in 2010 after a terrible 2009 effort that saw him hit only nine homers with 50 RBI in 131 games. Limited because of injury to 84 games in 2010, he socked 12 homers, had 59 RBI, scored 56 times and hit .303 for the Tigers. Also, let me give Mags some props. In 10 of the last 12 years he has hit .300, and in each of his last eight seasons of more than 500 at-bats he has knocked in at least 99 runs. He is no Albert Pujols, but he is still a darn effective big league hitter.

Less than a week away from Thanksgiving, an I’ve already started to salivate over the thought of mashed potatoes and yams with marshmallows. Time to do a few extra sit-ups to make sure I can gorge next week.

Jonathan Papelbon is arbitration eligible, and it appears that after making $9.35 million last year that he will be asked for something like $11.5 million for the coming campaign. Would the Red Sox simply non-tender Papelbon and allow the 9th inning to be taken over by Bard? After all, Bard made a mere $416,000 last year and still isn’t eligible for arbitration. It seems unlikely, honestly I can’t envision it happening, but it’s doesn’t appear to be crazy when you compare the 2010 performance of the two righty relievers to one another.

Papelbon:1.27 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, 0.94 HR/9, 0.87 GB/FB, 3.51 FIP
D. Bard: 1.00 WHIP, 9.16 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.72 HR/9, 1.23 GB/FB, 3.37 FIP

Pretty darn close isn’t it? It’s also a concern that Papelbon posted the worst BB/9 mark of his last five seasons (3.76), and also his worst K/BB (almost a batter and a half below his career mark of 4.02). Papelbon also allowed a five year worst in HR/9, WHIP and ERA (it was 3.90, more than a run an a half above his career 2.22 mark). That’s a lot of indicators going in the wrong direction to be giving a guy a raise to over $11 million.

Dan Uggla appears to be happy with the Braves, an as expected, he also seems interested in staying with the club for a while. Uggla said that he wants what is “fair” in a contract offer, but that he isn’t going to try and become the highest paid player of all-time or anything like that. “A lot of people know that this is the closest big league team to my home [in Tennessee], and it creates an incredible opportunity for my family and friends to be able to come down and watch on a more consistent basis,” Uggla said. For my thoughts on Uggla and the great move the Braves made to get him make sure you give Who is the AL Cy Young a read.

By Ray Flowers

AL CY and Two Deals

AL CY Young – A Job Well Done

I’m completely shocked. I mean, out of my mind confused right now. How in the world did the Baseball Writers Association of America get it right? I mean, this is on par with Copernicus discovering that the center of the universe was the Sun and not the Earth. What do I speak of? Of course I’m referring to the BBWAA selection of the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez as the AL Cy Young winner for 2010. I made my case for King Felix to be in the winner in Who is the AL Cy Young? Here is how I closed that piece.

“It will never happen, voters just won’t be able to look past the low win total, but the best pitcher in the AL this season was King Felix.”

I mean, no pitcher had ever won the the award with fewer than 15 wins – Tim Lincecum in 2010 – and his election last year caused many to pause because of the low win total.

Guess I was wrong.

King Felix won by a handy margin of 167 points to 111 for David Price and 102 for CC Sabathia (you can read the full results at the BBWAA website).

Congrats BBWAA – you did a wonderful job here.

A’s Move Davis to Blue Jays

Athletics Receive: Daniel Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson
Blue Jays Receive: Rajai Davis

The two minor league arms would appear to have some potential, and you can read about them in A’s Clear Outfield Crunch.

As for Davis, he is burner who owns one impressive set of wheels. Over the past two years he has stolen 91 bases, while being caught 23 times, and those 91 thefts place him fourth in baseball (Michael Bourn leads the way with 113, Carl Crawford has 109 and Juan Pierre has 98). However, Davis isn’t much more than that. Despite 143 games and 525 at-bats last season he scored only 66 runs because he just can’t get on base (.320 OBP in ’10, just below his .330 career mark). He also sports little power with only 12 career homers. In essence, he is Juan Pierre Jr. He is plenty valuable in the fantasy game, and should continue to run wild with the Blue Jays, but he just isn’t that great a real world player. Pay close attention to where he hits for the Blue Jays. If they stupidly allow him to hit at the top of the order he could score a bunch of runs in 2011, but his skill set is really better suited for the bottom third of the lineup.

Barmes Now an Astro

Astros Receive: Clint Barmes
Rockies Receive: Felipe Paulino

I’m not going to argue that the Astros needed to do something to bolster their middle infield, but the question I have is whether or not Barmes should have be looked at as the answer. He is versatile in that he played 69 games at second and 39 at shortstop last year (career: 333 games at short, 306 at second), but that bat of his is where I have major concerns.

(1) Here are Barmes’ career numbers: .254/.300/.404. The NL average since he began his career in 2003 is .261/.331/.416 which makes Barmes a below big league average performer in his career.

(2) While that career slash line is awful, his work away from Coors Field in his career had been pathetic, dreadful, abysmal, rancid — choose whichever adjective you like to describe his .222/.266/.352 line in more than 1,160 at-bats on the road.

That brings us back to where we started, so let’s ask the question again – did the Astros really improve their middle infield position?

As for Paulino, guy has a great arm and is just 27 years old. He has had some injury issues, and there are certainly concerns about how he will do in Colorado, but this seems like a big win for the Rockies. Paulino may have a sickly 6-21 record through three big league seasons, but he also sports a 8.08 K/9 mark that hints at his potential. I’m not saying I’m gonna draft Paulino in every league next season, but I will say when you can get a potential #3 starter for a middle infielder who isn’t even a big league average hitter, you have done pretty well.

By Ray Flowers

Marlins Blow it with Uggla

I have to admit that I’m pretty confused by this deal. Maybe I’m underating defensive acumen, but to me the NL East deal between the Marlins and Braves on Tuesday appears to be a slame dunk win for the perenial contending Braves.

The Deal:
Braves receive: 2B Dan Uggla
Marlins receive: INF Omar Infante and RP Mike Dunn.

First off, it’s very, very odd that the two divisional opponents would pull off a deal of this magnitude with one another..

Second, it should be pointed out that Uggla has one more year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent after the 2011 season. Clearly, the Braves believe they will be able to sign him long-term (reportedly the Marlins offered 4-years and $48 million, to which Uggla asked for 5-years, and $71 million). The Braves are certainly putitng themselves in a slightly precarious position do to the uncertainty surrounding Uggla’s future, but they clearly anticipate their winning atmopshere, not to mention new manager Fredi Gonzalez, who worked with Uggla in Florida, to help them to sway Uggla into staying for a while in Atlanta.

Now to the players.

Omar Infante was an All-Star in 2010 as he had the best season of his career as he hit .321. However, he has little power, he hit only eight homers and 15 doubles in 471 at-bats, and he rarely walked leading to a solid but far from great .359 OBP considering how high is average was. He also has stolen all of nine bases the past three years, and his career slash line is league average at .274/.319/.395. He helps out all over the field (65 games at 2B, 29 at 3B, 19 at SS, 21 at OF), but he has little shot to repeat his effort from last season which would, idealy, leave him as a super sub on a good team, not an everyday starter as the Marlins are planning on him being.

Dunn has impressive stuff that includes a fastball that resides at 95 mph and a power 86 mph slider. He’s used those pitches to great effect with 32 Ks in 23 big league innings (he also posted 64 Ks in 47.1 innings at Triple-A in ’10). However, Dunn has also walked 22 batters in those 23 big league innings, and his BB/9 number at Triple-A was 4.75 per nine innings last year — and that was a 3-year best. Exactly. Tons of stuff but little consistency so far.

As for Uggla, all he has done is have the best 5-year run to start his career of any second basemen who has ever played the game. Moreover, it can be argued rather easily that he is working on the greatest 5-year power run in the annals of baseball for a second basemen. Uggla has produced 5-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored, and that is the longest such streak – ever (no other second basemen has done it more than twice in a row). Actually, Uggla is one of only four players at any position who is working on a 5-year streak of 27-88-84, and the others are Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixieria. That’s right, Uggla is a consistnetly effective offensive weapon. I don’t really care that he is a K machine – at least 149 in each of the past four years – or if he owns a mere .263 career batting average, or if he really can’t play second base. The man can mash, and that is what the Braves will hang their hats on – a middle of the order threat who, at 31 years of age, seems a near lock for 25 homers, 90 RBI and 85 runs scored. Oh yeah, he has also missed a grand total of 34 games in five seasons.

This deal is a slam dunk win for the Braves if they can sign Uggla to a contract extension.

One other thing. Check your leagues games played requirements. I mention this because Martin Prado looks likely to move to the outfield. That means Prado could concievably qualify at second third and outfield in 2011. However, if he will only qualify at outfield if that is the only position he will actually play in 2011, make sure you realize that there isn’t much value to a .300-12-70 line from an outfielder if he only steals five bases.

For another view of the deal make sure to read Jason Collette’s Fishy Deals.

By Ray Flowers

NL Cy and an Import

NL Cy Young Controversy?

I just don’t get it sometimes. It could be the booze or it could be the fact that I’m usually only half paying attention when I write given that I have about 867 tasks a day to complete, but how in the world did the Baseball Writers Association of America name Roy Halladay the unanimous Cy Young Award winner in the NL? I admit it, I selected Halladay as my winner in the piece Who is the NL Cy Young?, but as I pointed out in that piece, Halladay’s numbers were almost matched by the Cardinals ‘Adam Wainwright. Check it out (you can access all the numbers by clicking on the link to the original piece).

Halladay had one more win than Wainwright.
Halladay’s ERA was 0.02 worse than Wainwright.
Halladay’s WHIP was 0.01 better than Wainwright.
Halladay struck out fewer batters per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay allowed more homers per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay was only 0.04 better than Wainwright in GB/FB ratio.
Halladay basically doubled Wainwright in K/BB.

I don’t know about you, but those numbers just don’t scream out unanimous selection. Like I wrote Halladay was still my choice to win the award, but I’m just shocked that no one gave a first place nod to Wainwright.

Three other notes that are everywhere but needs to be mentioned nonetheless. (1) Halladay became the 5th pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues as he joins Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry. (2) Halladay became the 7th Phillie to win the award. (3) Halladay was just the 13th unanimous choice in the NL.

Oh, and before moving on, here is an interesting note for the bridesmaid, Mr. Wainwright. Since he finished second in the Cy Young voting, his options for 2012 and 2013 will become automatically activated – as long as he doesn’t finish the 2011 season on the DL. If he can just stay healthy he will be guaranteed $9 million in ’12 and $12 million in ’13 – plus be eligible for bonuses based on his Cy Young finishes.

Kuroda Re-Signs with Dodgers

Hiroki Kuroda decided to remain with the Dodgers for at least one more season after signing a 1-year, $12 million deal (rumors are that he might return to Japan for the 2012 season which is why he signed for only one year). I find that number off since Kuroda made $13 million last season and because of the fact that Ted Lilly, also of the Dodgers, recently signed a 3-year, $33 million deal. I will say this, the 35 year old Kuroda pitched very well last season. Sure he went only 11-13, but the numbers were mighty impressive.

His 3.39 ERA was better than the 3.43 mark of Tim Lincecum.

His 196.1 innings were more than Wandy Rodriguez, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Sanchez to name but a few.

His 1.16 WHIP was better than Clayton Kershaw (1.18), Johan Santana (1.18) and Chris Carpenter (1.18) to name but a few.

His .243 BAA was better than Ryan Dempster (.244), Roy Halladay (.245) and Brett Myers (.248) to name but a few.

Face it, Kuroda is a solid pitcher who has shown no sign of decline as he hits his mid 30′s (for one, his K/9 rate was a career best at 7.29, well above his 6.56 career mark), even if his career record of 28-30 would lead you to another conclusion.

By Ray Flowers

Four in One

There are four main story lines I want to hit on today. Two involve players that were recently sent to new teams, while two others deal with the first awards to be handed out this season.

Rookie of the Year Results

I went on record making Buster Posey as my choice for NL Rookie of the Year and Austin Jackson as my AL choice (you can read my full arguments for both at the links to NL Rookie of the Year and AL Rookie of the Year). How accurate were my predictions?

In the NL my top-3 were Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia – the exact same order as the official voting. The only oddity in the voting was that a voter left Posey and Heyward off their ballot meaning they didn’t put either in their top-3. That’s disgraceful. They should have their voting privilege revoked.

In the AL, I wasn’t a soothsayer. I predicted Austin Jackson, Neftali Feliz and John Jaso as the top-3. The actual vote went Feliz-Jackson-Danny Valencia (Jaso came in fifth, Wade Davis also finished ahead of him in 4th place). Again, I always favor the everyday player over the pitcher if there is any doubt, kind of like a tie on the bases goes to the runner.

Cameron Maybin a Padre

The Padres traded for ultra talented Cameron Maybin giving up two strong relievers in Edwin Mujica and Ryan Webb who will now call Florida home.

Mujica struck out more than a batter per inning this season with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings. He also didn’t walk anyone with only six walks on the year meaning his K/BB ratio was 12.00, a historic number (it was the 4th best number in the history of baseball for a guy who tossed at least 65 innings). He needs to cut down the homers though – he owns a 1.43 per nine mark. Webb allowed only one homer in 59 innings as he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP for the Padres in 2010. He is an extreme groundball hurler with an ultra impressive 3.68 GB/FB ratio in ’10, an if he keeps that up he is going to have a job for an awfully long time.

Maybin is an all-around athlete who scouts will tell you owns every physical skill needed to have success at the big league level. At the same time, the sports world is a results driven business, and to this point Maybin has been a disappointment. Through 168 major league games Maybin is hitting .246 with 13 homers, 45 RBI, 93 runs scored and 19 thefts . While that isn’t good, it’s not all far removed from the type of effort that new teammate Chase Headley offered in 2009 (.264-11-58-77-17). In addition, the 23 year old Maybin has hit .284 with 62 RBI, 65 runs and 13 steals in just 115 games at Triple-A. The question is, can he translate his talent into production at the big league level? I think that, despite going to the worst offensive park in baseball in San Diego, that Maybin has a legitimate shot to be the next Mike Cameron. He’ll post a decent average, with a good amount of pop, and enough speed to be interesting. I think he could go 20/20 in 2011, and honestly, if he plays every day and doesn’t go 15/15, I would be disappointed.

David DeJesus an Athletic

The Athletics picked up outfielder David DeJesus by sending pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks to the Royals. Mazarro will be in the Royals rotation next season after going 6-8 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 122.1 innings with the A’s in 2010. Marks is a 22 year old who was taken in the third round of the 2009 Entry Draft. He had more than a K per inning at Single-A ball last season with 136 in 129.1 innings. His future is still a few years away from hitting.

DeJesus is a solid major league player who has more value in the real world than he does in fantasy. He is a good citizen, plays defense well, runs the bases well, and does a solid job of getting on base. In terms of numbers he owns a career slash line of .289/.360/.427, and per 162 games in his career he has posted an average fantasy line of .289-11-72-93-9. That isn’t over the top production by any means, but it marks him as a solid #5 outfielder in mixed leagues, and a solid #3 option in AL-only scenarios. I really like the guy, and it stands to reason that his production won’t change too much in Oakland. Just do yourself a favor and make sure you don’t draft him expecting him to match last years .318 average – it almost certainly will not be repeated.

By Ray Flowers