Top-10 C for 2011
November 12th, 2010 | by Ray Flowers |
Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll explain my rankings for the Top-10 Catchers for 2011.
For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.
Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?
My Top-10
Joe Mauer – The best hitting catcher in the game, period. Mauer hit .327 with 75 RBI and 88 runs scored, not to mention a .402 OBP, in 2010. Not worth the top-15 overall selection he was taken as last season, Mauer hit just nine homers, and if we remove his anomalous 28 homers season of 2009 we find that Mauer has averaged 9.4 homers in his other five seasons (I’m not counting his six homer effort in 107 at-bats in his first season).
Victor Martinez – The last six seasons that he has accrued at least 450 at-bats he has never failed to hit at least 16 homers or to produce at least 79 RBI. Toss in that he owns a career .300 batting average and you have yourself the second best fantasy catcher in baseball.
Brian McCann – Since 2006 McCann has hit at least 18 homers with 77 RBI each season. Moreover, since 2006, McCann leads the position in homers (107), extra base hits (283) and RBI (443). A rock solid option.
Buster Posey – If you watched the Giants all year, you’re sold on Posey. If you paid close attention in the playoffs, you should be sold as well. I worried about Posey’s ability to go deep heading into the year, but 18 homers in 406 at-bats would seem to waylay that fear. The young man can hit, and it’s not a stretch to think that he could match the production of V-Mart or McCann in 2011.
Geovany Soto – The Cubs’ catcher rebounded from a down 2009 to produce some solid totals. He nearly doubled Mauer with 17 homers, knocked in 53 runs, and hit a solid .280. Soto also was third at the position in OBP (.393) while he actually led catchers with a .890 OPS (Mauer was second at .871).
Carlos Santana – His season ended when he needed knee surgery, but he should be 100 percent by opening day. If he maintained his pace from last season and had 450 at-bats in 2011 he would hit .260 with 18 homers, 66 RBI and 69 runs scored. Given that his OBP was .401 last year, you have to think that his batting average could easily climb.
Kurt Suzuki – He didn’t match his breakout 2009 effort (.274-15-88-74) hitting .242-13-71-55, but he played more than 130-games for a third straight year and was still pretty darn effective for a catcher. He’s not an elite option, but he should still, easily, be a top-10 selection.
Matt Wieters – From the penthouse to the outhouse. After hitting .288 with nine homers in 354 at-bats as a rookie, Wieters slumped to .249 with 11 homers in 446 at-bats leading everyone to bail from the bandwagon as quick as they can. I’m not – I’m holding on for dear life. Wieters walked more frequently in year two while striking out less boosting his BB/K from 0.33 to 0.50. I like that. I also think his 15.4 line drive rate should improve in 2011, and with it his .287 BABIP, allowing that average to climb as well. Buy low on this guy.
Miguel Montero – Montero was a fantasy star in 2009 (.294-16-59-61) who failed to match his production in 2010 (.266-9-43-36). However, he had to come back from knee surgery and received 128 fewer at-bats, so his production actually wasn’t substantially different. At the same time he has only one season with more than 300 at-bats, one season of an average of .270 and just one season with more than 36 runs scored. I’d like to see another strong effort from him in 2011, but he is clearly still a top-10 option.
Mike Napoli – I’d rank him higher if I knew he would get the at-bats that he deserved. However, I just feel like that won’t ever happen unless he leaves the Angels. Napoli owns a strong .831 OPS in his career, and he has gone deep at least 20-times each of the past three years despite averaging a mere 353 at-bats a season. He may only have a .251 career average, but he has hit in the .270′s two of the past three years.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brian McCann, Buster Posey, C for 2011, Carlos Santana, Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer, Kurt Suzuki, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Mike Napoli, Victor Martinez
By Paul on Nov 12, 2010
I could criticize the H E double hockey sticks out of these rankings but I won’t.
I think you have done a nice job posting these for us.
Although I do have say I feel the catcher ranking have been ranked based on potential then performance.
Where I find your previous fantasy rankings were based on 2011 production
Paul
By Ray Flowers on Nov 14, 2010
Paul- what would your top-10 be? I really don’t think there is anything outlandish at all here. Youngsters like Posey and Santana have proven, in short time, that they can be elite performers. Wieters still has oodles of potential as well.
How would your list differ?
By Paul on Nov 17, 2010
That was my point, in most of your other rankings, you had players listed based on what they have done, rather then what they may do.
But I’m sure that has to do with catchers being such a thin position.
I was surprised to see Mauer #1. Yes, he is the best all round catcher in baseball, but since defense and arm strength is a non factor in fantasy Mauer loses a lot of stock here. If you draft Mauer, its for BA mostly.
I would ranked McCann #1, McCann only hit a .269, a career low (.270 in 2007), most likely due to a slight increase of strikeout %. McCann has a .289 career BA that I would expect to return with a good BB/K ratio. Add in good power (21+ HR 4 out of 5 years, had 18 in 2007)from the catcher position and smart base running.
I would also rank V-Mart ahead of Mauer, again defense don’t matter here, thank goodness!
Outside of his 2008 injury season, Martinez has hit .300+ since 2005 and with good power, 20+ HR 5 out of past 7 years (16 in 2006). With Martinez most likely gaining first base eligibility in 2011 and playing mostly DH while qualifying at the catcher position, he easily gets my #2.
At #3 it would be hard to pass on Mauer, but I think thats the hype we hear.
If I could give some love to Geovany Soto here.
Soto does have a high strikeout percentage (21.4% in 2010) but his BB% has increased every year since joining the league in 2007, from 8.3% to 16% this year, if that trend continues it will only improve his BA. Soto has power, hit 23 hit rookie season in 2008 and has 17 this past season in 387 PA, if he recovers from his injury (which would be my only concern) I fully expect him to clear 20.
Mauer & Soto are 3 & 4 pending on what I hear on Soto’s shoulder at the time of my draft.
After that it’s probably a crap shoot, Napoli is a possibility, but playing time is a concern.
Kurt Suzuki- Too streaky in weekly leagues. Maybe top 10 in yearly roto leagues, but trade him early while hes hot.
My concern with Posey- Sophomore Slump!Not sure what causes it, but a lot of the best run into it.
Outside of that, Posey does have a bad GB%, 50% in 2010, over 50% at every level in 2009, only average LD%, 18% in 2010 and 17-18% at every level in 2009. Posey did crush it in AAA in 2010, 41 GB% and 25 LD%. If that GB% don’t improve, he may never hit .300 again.
Weiters- Needs to correct that swing, reports last year was he had a flaw in the swing that caused him to trail on pitches. If he hasn’t fixed it in two years, not sure if he will.
Santana- Like him the best of all of the youngsters here. Good BB/K ratios, 37/29 in MLB last year, 45/39 in AAA, 90/83 in AA in 2009. Good ISOP in last two stops in minors, .240, .281 & .207 with Cleveland last year.
Would throw Chris Iannetta in my top 10- always liked his potential, guess Tracy doesn’t. But with Olivio traded, maybe he will get a chance, although an argument can be made on how last year effected his confidence.
Ruiz would be a borderline top 10- He plays in a good line up and seems to get on base enough to be a low #1, high #2 in 12 team leagues.
I was surprised you left Jaso off your rankings, you seem to give him some love for your AL ROY and what about Jesus Montero?
For the record, before last season I was asked “Out of all the young Catchers, who would I select?” My answer was Santana.
Ok Ray, after doing this I don’t think your rankings were as bad as I initially thought, they just threw me for a loop at first look. But this was fun.
Paul
By Ray Flowers on Nov 17, 2010
Paul-
I may not agree with everything you wrote, but that is clearly the best POST to an article we’ve ever seen here at BBGuys.
Some thoughts-
Mauer is #1 for lots of reasons. Obviously AVG, but he also scores more runs than any other catcher, throws in a few steals, and is, simply put, the best hitting catcher in baseball.
McCann has pop to be sure, but his average leaves his 5×5 value below mauer. You could argue for VMart at the top.
Posey has always hit, and he always will. My concern, which you echoed, is will be be a 12-15 HR guy, or a 20+ HR guy as some will certainly predict.
Problem with Ruiz and Jaso is that they have little pop, and OBP doesn’t count in most leagues. Hitting .290 is great, but if its only in 400 at-bats that does about as good as a .275 guy in 575 ABs which is to say – not much.
Montero can’t be in top-10, not even close. Its not certain he will catch, or if he will even start year with Yanks next season.
I love Iannetta too – but ROX just won’t give him 450 ABs.
Great reply.
By Paul on Nov 18, 2010
Its not a bad thing we disagree, otherwise fantasy would be boring!
Based on your response, I am going to assume your rankings are normally based on roto 5×5 leagues? That could be a difference also, I normally play in H2H leagues.
Thanks for the complement,
Paul