A Hip That Makes You Hop?

Just like that, plans change. For those of you looking to roster a certain closer from the Pacific Northwest in 2011 you might want to reconsider that plan of attack and “hop” to another reliever in the Mariners’ bullpen.

The Mariners were thought to be exploring potential trade partners for David Aardsma. Not that they didn’t like his game – he has saved 69 of them the past two years – it’s just that he has been pretty good the past two years which means that his salary is about to get a bit pricey (he is eligible for arbitration and could double his $2.75 million salary of last season). Well, things just got downright sticky for the Mariners as it was announced that David would need surgery for a labrum tear in his left hip. Obviously this means they will not be able to move him for that power bat that they seek. It also means there has to be some question about what Aardsma will be able to offer early in the year. Reports are that he will miss about four weeks before he will be allowed to throw again, but that seems a bit quick to me. Even if he is back throwing that soon there is no guarantee that he will be able to pitch effective in spring. If you are considering holding on to Aardsma in a keeper league, I certainly wouldn’t (in fact, I’d have said the same thing even before the injury).

Who would I be looking at in the Mariners’ pen now that Aardsma could be slow to start the year? I’d be looking at Brandon League. Even if Aardsma was healthy I’d let you draft him in the 10th round and just take League in the 20th and be happy about it. Why would I feel comfortable with something that seems downright outlandish? Again my friends, I roster skills over role nearly every time. So that must mean I’m saying that I like the skills of League better than those of Aardsma? You got that right. Here are their 2009-2010 numbers.

Aardsma: 9.60 K/9, 4.39 BB/9, 2.19 K/BB, 2.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
League: 7.33 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 2.75 K/BB, 3.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Obviously Aardsma has the advantage in the strikeout department, but that one run advantage in ERA sure looks pretty darn spotty. Not only does League walk a batter and half less per nine, a figure that sooner or later will even out the other numbers (meaning Aardsma is in trouble), I left out two salient facts that point even more strongly toward League being the better option.

League is a dynamite, and I mean other worldly type of ground ball inducing pitcher. League owns a career 3.09 GB/FB rate, and a decent rule of thumb is that the average big league hurler is usually in the 1.00 to 1.10 range. Obviously that means that League is superior to the average hurler, by a multiple mind you. Moreover, amongst pitchers who tossed 70-innings last season League’s 3.00 GB/FB was the best mark in the American League. If you keep the ball on the ground you rarely give up extra base hits, and that is certainly key late in games, especially for a guy like League who often comes into a game with guys on base.

Aardsma couldn’t be a more different type of pitcher. Mind you, Aardsma has been successful with his style the past two years, but sooner or later most of things tend to normalize. I already mentioned the huge concern about his walk total, but there is another part of his game that belies his current success – Aardsma is diametrically opposed to League as he is a fly ball machine. Because of all the fly balls he gives up Aardsma owns a career GB/FB rate of 0.79 which just so happens to be the same number he posted last season. Think about that. Aardsma’s GB/FB rate in 2010 was about 25 percent of the mark of League, so how in the hell did he have a better ERA? Sheer luck if you ask me. Somehow Aardsma has allowed a mere nine homers the past two years despite all those fly balls. That’s far too few, even if he does possess some innate yet unmeasurable ability to keep fly balls in the yard. Maybe it’s just because Safeco isn’t a great park to go deep in. The bottom line is that Aardsma has been playing with fire for two years, and sooner or later fire burns.

To sum it up you need to knock Aardsma well down your relief pitcher list until you see him out there slinging it at 95 mph. Even if that does occur in spring training I’m telling you – draft League. In my mind he has the more stable skill set, and when you combine that with better health, all he needs is to be given the opportunity to truly shine in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Innocent Until Proven Guilty

I don’t normally climb to the top of my ivory tower and simply bloviate, but today I’m going to do just that.

I’m getting some blow-back from people on Twitter since I posted my piece HOF: The Case for Bagwell. The reason being that there seems to be an undercurrent that Bagwell is unworthy of inclusion in the Hall of Fame because he did steroids. There are quite a few reasons that paint such a view as asinine.

(1) Bagwell never failed a drug test and was never caught purchasing drugs.

(2) Just because a guy is muscular is no reason to simply assume that he is doing Performance Enhancing Drugs (PED’s). In fact, Bagwell’s thoughts on the matter can be found in Jeff Bagwell tires of steroids talk. Bagwell himself admits that he got too big from trying to make the cover of Muscle and Fitness magazine. Instead of being smart and training like a baseball player should, he just focused on strength and bulk. Bagwell also points out that he was an obsessive weight lifter who literally spent hours in the gym every day.

(3) People are pointing to his offensive explosion in 1994 as some proof of steroid use. I got news for you folks, sometimes people just have out of nowhere performances, and it has nothing to do with PED use. See Jose Bautista in 2010 for a recent example if you have already forgotten. Speaking of Bautista, my Breaking Down piece lists all of the reasons that you should avoid counting on Bautista as a building block for 2011.

(4) Some have pointed out that Bagwell flamed out at the end of his career, to which I respond so what? Bagwell’s weightlifting effectively ruined his shoulder to the point that it was almost impossible for him to throw the ball across the infield. He simply couldn’t swing the bat at the end of his career. Secondly, he retired at 37 years of age. Back in the day almost every player was done, or nearly done, by that age. It’s only recently that players have been able to sustain success into their late 30′s.

Do I think that Bagwell did steroids? No I don’t, but honestly, that’s besides the point. The fact is that he never failed a test, so unless he comes out and admits that he took PED’s then we must presume his innocence (we still do that in the United States right? You know, the whole presumed innocent until proven guilty thing that is a foundational building block of our country).

I find it laughably pathetic that there is such rampant hypocrisy in sports.

Chargers’ LB Shawne Merriman was suspended for steroid use in 2006. That same season he was elected to the NFL Pro Bowl. Where is the outrage for that?

Michael Vick, a convicted felon for torturing and murdering dogs, has been welcomed back to the NFL with open arms to make gazillions of dollars and to be adored by millions for his football talents despite the fact that he is a deplorable human being. He was named to the Pro Bowl the other day.

But what do we do in the world of baseball? We cast baseless aspersions and impugn people’s character and reputation merely on supposition. That sickens me. Any player who has been tied to PED use in the public is roundly scorned, derided, and ultimately their place in history is tarnished to the point that their performance on the field is almost completely ignored – even though there is no proof that they did anything illegal.

Did, and do, baseball players use PED’s? With 100 percent certainty I can agree with that statement. Which players took PED’s? I have no idea, and despite what you think, neither do you. If we don’t know who took them how can we blame anyone? Do we just say that any player who suited up from 1990′s and first decade of the 20th century should be banned from the Hall of Fame?

I know that hypocrisy knows no bounds, but there will be none of it at BaseballGuys.com. Barring incontrovertible proof that would result in a conviction in a court of law, I’m going to go with the principles instilled by our Founding Fathers that all men, and women, are innocent until proven guilty.

Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29

I got nothing but rumors to discuss today, though I’m sure you won’t mind that given the clarity that I will bring to each free agents potential for the coming season.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels remain the most likely landing spot for Adrian Beltre. There are still rumblings out there that Beltre is seeking upwards of $85 million which seems like a crazy amount of dough to spend on a guy who is already 32 years old and one who has only one 30 homer season and just two with 100-RBI. Will the Angels bite since they missed out on their top target, Carl Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox? For more on Crawford give The End of Baseball? a read.

There are three relievers whose names are in the hopper right now as front burner type guys. Here are my thoughts on each.

Grant Balfour: On the Orioles radar, Balfour is the hardest thrower of this threesome. However, his average fastball is down two mph from its peak in 2008 when he was murder on hitters with a massive 12.65 K/9 mark as he held batters to a .143 average. He regressed in ’09 seeing his ERA almost triple to 4.81 as his K/9 rate plummeted to 9.22. While his K/9 rate was even worse last year at 9.11, he was able to cut a walk and a half off his BB/9 mark down to 2.77 (a career best) and that was a huge key to his return to success (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Somehow he has been able to avoid allowing homers year after year despite the fact that 45 percent of batted balls have gone skyward. At this point, he has proven that this is a trend to be taken seriously as his HR/FB rate has been below nine percent each of the past five years. A nice addition to any pen if expectations are kept in check.

Hideki Okajima: On the A’s radar, Okajima is coming off his worst season – by a lot. He missed his career ERA by more than a run and a half at 4.50, while his WHIP was above 1.26 for the first time in four years at a sickly 1.72. Hideki also saw his K/9 rate dip one and a half batters below his career rate of 6.46 per nine, while his BB/9 was also a career worst (3.91). Already 35 years old, someone will take a chance on a rebound from Hideki and just write off last season as an injury induced slump, though I have my doubts it was only that.

Chad Qualls: Also on the A’s radar, Qualls is the hurler from this group I would most like to see “my” team sign. How can I say that when his ERA was 7.32 last year? Am I off my rocker? Possibly, but hear me out.

(1) Qualls can be had on the cheap coming off that dreadful season, and that’s a huge check mark in his favor with middle relievers getting massive deals this offseason.

(2) From 2005-09 he was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. In that time he had never posted an ERA higher than 3.76 or a WHIP worse than 1.32 with an average effort of a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

(3) Qualls is one of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of generating ground balls with a career GB/FB mark of 2.30. Even last season, when he was awful, he still posted a strong 1.95 mark. When you induce that many grounders, success will usually follow.

(4) Despite atrocious ratios last season, Qualls still pitched pretty well – and no, I’m not still hungover from celebrating my Sirius/XM Experts League Championship in fantasy football. Look at the numbers.

2010: 7.47 K/9, 1.95 GB/FB, 16.8 LD-rate, 55.0 GB-rate
career: 7.35 K/9, 2.30 GB/FB, 17.3 LD-rate, 57.6 GB-rate

So why the struggles. How about an utter lack of anything resembling even an iota of good will?

2010: 16.8 LD-rate, .399 BABIP, 53.0 LOB%
career: 17.3 LD-rate, .309 BABIP, 71.9 LOB%

Clearly, this guy left his rabbit’s foot at home last year. His BABIP mark was the worst in baseball amongst pitchers who threw 50-innings, despite better than a career average line drive rate. That will not repeat in ’11. Qualls also went from a slightly better than average pitcher in terms of stranding runners to being an abysmal failure as he was, again, the worst pitcher in baseball in that category (min. 50 IP). Given the totality of his work last season I’m betting on a strong rebound after last year’s dismal showing that, quite simply, makes no logical sense.

By Ray Flowers

HOF: The Case for Bagwell

With the Hall of Fame vote coming up (the results will be released on January 6th), I thought it might be nice to link to the pieces I wrote last year regarding a handful of players that were up for consideration but who failed to be enshrined. Here are those links.

Edgar Martinez – Is There Room for a DH?
HOF – Tim Raines .
Is McGriff Hall Worthy ?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood ?
HOF: Who am I ?

In addition, here is my recap on how the voting actually turned out last year in HOF: What Should Have Been.

As for the vote this year, there seems to be growing support for the candidacy of Jeff Bagwell. Should be be enshrined in the Hall of Fame?

PRO

(1) Bagwell spent his entire 15 year career with the Astros. I know this really doesn’t matter, but in the world of money grubbing by players you have to tip your hat to Bagwell for this accomplishment of staying with one club.

(2) He was the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, and in 1994 he was named NL MVP. He also finished in the top-10 in MVP voting five times on his way to 2.89 Career MVP Shares, the 35th highest mark in league history.

(3) He was named to four All-Star teams.

(4) He had 1,529 RBI – 45th all-time – and he also scored 1,517 runs, good for 62nd all-time. No player eligible for the Hall of Fame with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI isn’t in the Hall.

(5) He finished his career with a .408 OBP, the 40th best mark ever.

(6) He finished his career with a .540 SLG, the 35th best mark ever.

(7) He finished his career with a .948 OPS, the 21st best mark ever. This is a simply stupendous accomplishment for a guy who spent so much of his career hitting in the Astrodome.

(8) Bagwell led the league in runs three times – with a high of 152. In fact, he scored 143 and 152 runs in 1999-2000, and amongst first basemen only he and Lou Gehrig ever had back-to-back seasons of 140+ runs in the history of baseball.

(9) Bagwell hit .297 with 449 homers, 1,529 RBI, 1,517 runs and an OPS of .948. In the history of baseball, only 10 men have reached each of those totals in their career, and oh what a list it is: Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Mel Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams and Mr. Bagwell.

CON

(1) He spent his entire career with the Astros. Did anyone notice how great he was since they never saw him play in person or on television?

(2) The strike in 1994 ruined what was shaping up to be a historic season. Bagwell hit .368 with 39 homers, 116 RBI and 104 runs scored… in 110 games. Along the way he led the league in RBI and runs, not to mention SLG (.750) and OPS (1.201). If he had kept that pace up over 160 games he would have produced a line of .368-57-169 with 151 runs scored. If he had produced a season for the ages like that, would more people have taken notice of him?

(3) Despite his tremendous work, other than 1994, was he ever even considered the best first baseman in baseball with players like Fred McGriff, Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton around?

VERDICT

Bagwell should be a lock. In addition to being a tremendous person and teammate, he was also a dynamic player. His career totals stack up well against pretty much any man who ever played first base, and it’s not his fault there were so many tremendous hitting first basemen in the game when he played. Bagwell was also widely regarded as one of the best base runners in baseball in his career, even with less than scintillating speed, and that reputation should augment the glowing numbers. The Hall of Fame candidacy of many players has been exaggerated of late, but if Mr. Bagwell is enshrined the voting body will be making a decision that will undoubtedly stand the test of time.

By Ray Flowers

Arms for the New Year

Just like I did last week in Hot Stove: The Arms Race, I’ll spend my time today detailing some of the hurlers that have found new homes.

The Brandon Webb Saga

Finally. After pretty much every team in baseball was tied to the righty at some point this offseason, Webb will take his surgically repaired shoulder to the AL Champion Rangers in 2011 after agreeing to a 1-year deal with a base salary of $3 million. It should be pointed out that the deal isn’t official, and since it is dependent on Webb passing a physical there is still a chance that the deal could be scuttled, but it appears like the deal will be wrapped up soon.

The Rangers lost Cliff Lee, their only ace level starter, but C.J. Wilson was pretty impressive in his own right last season in his first year as a starter (he had the 10th best ERA in the AL at 3.35). Colby Lewis, who found his groove in Japan, returned to the States with his rhythm intact as he struck out 196 batters, the 7th best mark in the AL. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 last season with an ERA of 3.73 over 23 appearances, and Derek Holland has been the arm of the future for the Rangers for a while now. That would appear to leave the 5th spot for Webb, a great fit for a guy who simply cannot be counted on after throwing four innings the past two years because of shoulder woes.

Texas isn’t a very good place to pitch given that the ballpark was 4th in the AL in allowing runs and 5th in homers according to Park Indices. The good news is that if Webb’s shoulder is back to something near his pre-injury form it likely won’t matter. A ground ball machine because of his sinking fastball, Webb had the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 500-innings from 2005-08.

Still, there are a plethora of legitimate concerns.

(1) Is he healthy, and if he is, will he be able to return to his pre-injury form?

(2) Even if healthy, will he have the stamina to last 200-innings after basically missing two years?

(3) If he has lost some sink/movement on his pitches, how will the move to Texas impact his performance given that he will be facing the stouter offenses of the Junior Circuit?

What did the Rangers add to their rotation? From a fantasy perspective, don’t by the hype. You can surely take a late shot on Webb if the reports are positive during camp, but keep in mind the potential pitfalls, which are many, before you go reaching for Webb’s services.

One last note. If Webb does indeed return to some semblance of his earlier form, his signing would appear to allow the Rangers their preferred option of once again going with Neftali Feliz in the 9th inning instead of having to shift him back into the rotation to fill a glaring need.

Octavio Dotel to the Blue Jays

It’s not a lock, but multiple sources are reporting that Dotel will sign a 1-year deal for $3.5 million to join the Blue Jays with the assumption being that he will be given the first crack to take over in the ninth inning for free agent Kevin Gregg (who is still looking for a team by the way). For some thoughts on Dotel, make sure you read Hot Stove: The Arms Race, where I pointed out that, despite his faults, that Dotel can still sling it with the best of them.

This move would seem to relegate Jason Frasor, once again, to a setup role. I say once again because this guy has pitched pretty darn well the last two years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.98 K/9 and a solid 2.81 K/BB ratio. Keep an eye on Frasor. If he can keep the ball on the ground again – his GB-rate was back above his career 44.3 percent mark at 46.4 after back-to-back years below 39 percent – he could easily have another successful campaign and work his way into the 9th inning mix when the inevitable slump hits Dotel.

Takashi Saito Joins Brewers

Saito agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers on Monday. He isn’t a threat to John Axford who will, barring something unforeseen, open the year as the Brewers’ undisputed closer, but that doesn’t mean Saito shouldn’t be looked at in the fantasy game.

Saito will be 41 on Valentine’s Day, and that alone would be a big concern. Throw in the fact that he continues to be bothered by on and off again issues with his arm and on the surface he would appear to be off limits. However, whenever his elbow isn’t barking, the guy is dominating. In a big league career of 299.1 innings Saito has produced a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.00 K/9 mark and a 3.89 K/BB ratio thanks in no small part to that disappearing slider of his. Amid little fanfare, Saito posted an enormous 11.50 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP for the Braves in 2010 signaling that he can still get it done when his body permits.

J.C. Romero Back in Philly

After failing to work things out with Dennys Reyes, the Phillies had a hole in their bullpen for a left-handed specialist. Naturally, they turned to Romero. Despite the fact that the Phils turned down his $4.5 million option for 2011 there was always mutual interest if the price was right. Apparently the two sides found that common ground.

A piece of advice for you if you have a son and are wondering what you should teach him to be when he gets older – make sure you teach him to throw left-handed. Romero keeps getting work year after year, and making millions of dollars, despite the fact that he just isn’t very good. In 628 big league appearances Romero owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, decidedly average numbers. He is also well below average with a hideous 5.14 BB/9 mark and a pathetic 1.40 K/BB rate. He can get lefties out, he has held them to a .215 BAA in his career, but even when having that success he really hasn’t all that good with a 3.83 BB/9 mark and a 1.20 WHIP. So hopefully you brought your kid a left-handed glove for the holidays. Clear away the snow and get that kid a throwin.

By Ray Flowers

Stocking Stuffers

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: The Arms Race

In today’s article I’ll expound upon a rather interesting comparison between setup men. I’ll also discuss another reliever looking for a home, an all-time great who might retire, and the hottest arm on the free agent market if you decide that based upon the numbers of teams that want to sign him to a deal.

Daniel Bard vs. Joba Chamberlain: The perception is that the Red Sox righty reliever is a much better option in 2011. However, is that really the case? Let’s compare each hard throwing setup man to the other based on 2010 numbers.

Bard:1-2, 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Joba: 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Clearly Bard was the better pitcher last season, and it wasn’t even close. Or was it?

Bard: 9.16 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 2.53 K/BB, 1.23 GB/FB
Joba: 9.67 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 3.50 K/BB, 1.22 GB/FB

Admit it – you almost fell out of your chair when you saw those three numbers, didn’t you? That’s right, Joba had a better K-rate, walked fewer batters, and had a better K/BB ratio. Given that their GB/FB ratios were virtually identical, if that was the only data you had at your fingertips you would say that Joba was the better pitcher, and it wouldn’t even be a tough call. So how in the world were his ERA and WHIP so much worse than Bard’s marks last year? I think I have a rather simple answer.

Bard: .225 BABIP, 15.4 LD-rate
Joba: .343 BABIP, 17.2 LD-rate

Yahtzee. Bard’s BABIP was artificially low while Joba’s was artificially high. That’s obviously a huge piece of this puzzle. We can make the argument that both hurlers also had artificially low line drive marks, but clearly the difference between the LD-rate and the BABIP mark was totally nuts for Bars. The big league average is 20 and .300, yet somehow Chamberlain flew past that to an obnoxious .343 BABIP even though his LD-rate was terrific. It just doesn’t make much sense. If both hurlers maintain their ’10 line drive rate in ’11, you would expect Bard to have a BABIP mark of about .270 and Joba to have a mark of about .290. If the gap does close to .020 points instead of last years .118 spread, you can bet the fantasy performance of both hurlers will be pretty darn close. Oh, and don’t forget that the Red Sox added reliever Bobby Jenks to their bullpen which might mean that Bard wouldn’t be the first choice to close if something were to happen to Jonathan Papelbon. As for the Yankees situation, do you have any doubt that Joba would get the call in the 9th inning if Mariano Rivera went down?

Octavio Dotel: He has certainly seen better days, but the guy still throws hard and knows how to post strikeouts. In fact, his 10.55 K/9 mark in 2010 was his fourth straight year in double digits and just slightly below his career 10.95 mark. Of course, walks are always a concern, more than four per nine in his career, and they were even above that poor mark up at 4.50 last year. Still, when looking for a power arm on the cheap, he is one of the best bets still on the market, so you can understand why he has been linked to the Rays, Blue Jays and Pirates.

Andy Pettitte: It really is starting to sound like Pettitte may indeed hang up his spikes. According to Buster Olney, Pettitte isn’t preparing as he normally would with his offseason training regimen. Even if he were to sign a deal with the Yankees, at this point he’d be weeks behind where he would normally be at physically. The Yankees have to be feeling like that kid who knows he was bad and is somehow holding out hope that Santa will overlook that fact and still bring him a gift on Christmas. As of now, here is the Yankees rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and ??? They are nearly to the point of desperation with the only legitimate internal option apparently being Ivan Nova (I’m not buying Sergio Mitre). It’s not a good situation to be in. What is that old say, pitching wins championships? If that is the case, the Yankees are in serious trouble.

Brandon Webb: Last night there was a mystery team added to the mix (Ala the Phillies with the Cliff Lee negotiations). Who is that mystery team? We don’t know other than the club is from the NL Central and that it isn’t the Reds or Brewers. Since everyone already knows the Cubs are interested, that would seem to mean that either the Cardinals, Pirates or Astros are in the mix. Come Wednesday, we now have a second mystery team in the mix according to Webb’s agent Jonathan Maurer. Has there been this much interest in a broken down asset since the housing market crash?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Still Simmering

The pull of Christmas continues to strengthen with each passing day as it becomes harder and harder to actually focus on your tasks at work (don’t tell me you don’t feel it’s pull). That doesn’t mean that the world of baseball is off for the holidays. In fact, it’s just the opposite as there are quite a few pertinent news stories making the rounds on this day.

Adrian Beltre: Backed by the evil Scott Boras, Beltre is apparently turning his nose up slightly at the 5-year, $70 million deal the Angels have extended the third baseman. Why? Because he’d like a sixth year of course. Beltre is a consistent run producer who also plays fine defense, but he isn’t a .300 hitting 30 homer guy, so he should be plenty happy with what the Angels are offering, especially since there doesn’t appear to be another team willing to offer that much money. Beltre would also be wise to realize that he will 37 years old at the end of a five year deal, so I don’t know how many organizations are going to be clamoring to give him a sixth season when he will be 38 years old. The Angels are pretty desperate to add him after losing Hideki Matsui to free agency and losing out on guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but let’s hope they do the smart thing and hold fast on their current offer which is, in my opinion, too high already.

LATE ADDITION: Seems like the Angels came to the same conclusion that I did. With the ink barely dry on this article, a report surfaced in the Los Angeles Times that the Angels have withdrawn their offer to Beltre (Angels Pull Offer). Seems like they called Scott Boras’ bluff and have flat out dared him to find another team willing to give his client $70 million. Who will blink first?

David Freese: A total wild card this season since he is coming off surgeries to both ankles. Freese is said to be progressing well, but he still hasn’t even been cleared to run yet. He has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats, but at this point he should be restricted to merely being a late round flier in NL-only leagues.

Brett Gardner: The fleet of foot outfielder had offseason surgery on his wrist, and like Freese, everything is heading in the right direction with his recovery and Gardner expects to be 100 percent by Spring Training. (Brett said he was only a couple of weeks behind his “normal” offseason workout schedule). While somewhat overlooked because of the juggernaut around him, Gardner had a hell of a fantasy season last year which included being one of just three players in baseball who stole 45 bases, knocked in 45 runs, and scored at least 95 times (the others were Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford). Depending on what region of the country you live in, Gardner might be a relative bargain on draft day, especially if he was able to secure a spot at the top of the Yankees’ lineup.

Scott Podsednik: The Angels missed out on their top offseason target when Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox. So their reaction is to try and sign Scott Podsednik? Pods can still motor, he had 35 steals last season while hitting .297, but come on now. He’s 35 years old and he shouldn’t be anything more than a fourth outfield option on an upper division club. He’s really nothing more than a replacement level player at this point of his career, even with the gaudy steal total. That doesn’t mean he has no fantasy value, the guy does have 65 thefts the past two years while hitting .300, and he could score a bunch of runs if he was signed by the Angels and inserted at the top of their run and gun batting order. All I’m saying is that he really isn’t that valuable a real world player.

David Price: I had a debate at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account this week about why I wouldn’t have David Price ranked in my top-10 starting pitchers this season. To me the answer is simple – he doesn’t belong there. I know he was second in the AL in wins (19) and third in ERA (2.72), but his peripheral numbers simply don’t support that level of performance. (1) His walk rate of 3.41 per nine was worse than the big league average (3.28). He did offset that fact a bit with his solid 8.11 K/9 mark, but his resulting 2.38 K/BB ratio is only barely better than the 2010 big league average of 2.17. (2) Price posted a 1.10 GB/FB ratio which was, again, big league average. It also wasn’t any different from his 1.05 mark of 2009 when he posted a 4.42 ERA. (3) Price had a left on base percentage of 78.5 percent in ’10. Given that the big league average is 70 percent, that’s a pretty darn high total (to compare Price with another great lefty, Cliff Lee’s mark was 67.9 percent). It’s almost impossible to posit another run at 80 percent from Price. (4) His ERA was lucky. There, I said it. Price’s FIP mark was 3.42, well above his raw ERA mark of 2.72. In addition, his DIPS ERA was 3.55 while his Component ERA was 2.92. You don’t have to know how those numbers are computed to understand that all three of those measures point to his actual ERA of 2.72 being far too low based on his overall level of performance. Price will not fail, he is too talented for that, and his one batter improvement in his K/9 rate last season is exciting, but I would be pretty shocked if he was able to once again keep his ERA under 3.00 this season, and few pitchers win 19 games in back-to-back seasons (Adam Wainwright and CC Sabathia are the only two hurlers that have done it the past two years).

Brandon Webb: The injured righty continues to receive lots of love from teams around the league that are hoping to strike it rich with the former ace. Teams that appears to be heavily in on Webb include the Cubs, Nationals and Rangers, though at one point or another he has been linked to about half the teams in baseball. I know he was a star from 2005-08, but the guy had major shoulder surgery, looked terrible late in the year according to some scouting reports, and he has thrown all of four innings the past two seasons. Hopefully everyone learned from the Ben Sheets debacle of last season (1-year, $10 million for 20 starts) that Webb’s contract should be something like 90 percent incentive driven.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers