ADP Talk: What Stands Out?

With the fantasy sports world just about over football – for those of you that have already moved on the Superbowl is in a week – mock drafts for baseball are really starting to heat up. Today, in preparation for our discussion on the Fanball Fantasy Drive (you can hear the show every day, from 5-8 PM EDT, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 – you can call in with your questions on any fantasy sport), I thought I would point out some of the interesting ADP trends that stuck out for me when I was reviewing things over at MockDraftCentral this morning.

Third Base Going Early

Almost the first term out of everyone’s mouth this draft season seems to be “position scarcity.” There are a couple of positions that seem pretty top heavy with shortstop and third base being at the head of the list. When looking at the ADP information we find fourth third basemen going in the top-20 selections: Evan Longoria (ADP of 5 overall), David Wright (10), Alex Rodriguez (16) and Ryan Zimmerman (20). I completely agree that those are the top-4 third sackers on the board, but I really wonder if it’s worth reaching on Longoria as a top-5 option. Just compare his numbers last season to Zimmerman.

Longoria: .294-22-104-96-15
Zimmerman: .307-25-85-85-4

Longoria certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’d lean toward Zimmerman in the second versus Longoria that early given the return on investment (ROI) opportunity.

The Top-5 Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (4), Jose Reyes (26), Jimmy Rollins (43), Derek Jeter (48) – that’s your top-5. Only two other shortstops are in the top-100: Elvis Andrus (71) and Alex Ramirez (100).

Hanley Ramirez OPS dropped .101 points last year. He’s also seen his homer total dip from 33 to 21 the last three years while his runs scored marked has gone from 125 to 92. Is he really the no-doubt #2 man overall?

Reyes 17 picks ahead of Rollins? I’m not buying that. You can read about my thoughts on those two in Top-10 SS for 2011. I also don’t think that Jeter is a bad pickup this year (The Value of Jeter). At the same time, Ramirez hit .012 points higher than Jeter, with eight more homers, three more RBI and just five fewer steals last season – and he is available 52 picks later.

Only One SP in Top-20

Only one starting pitcher is going in the top-20, and that is the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. Most people tend to eschew starting pitching early in drafts because there is more volatility with pitchers from year to year. At the same time, with hitting on the decline, perhaps pitchers should be taken a bit earlier? Nah. Only two other hurlers are going in the top-34: Tim Lincecum (21) and Felix Hernandez (27).

* Riddle me this – which one of these pitching lines would you want most?

12-9, 3.18 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.00 WHIP in 212.1 IP
13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP
11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 183.2 IP

Those numbers belong to Cliff Lee (37), Clayton Kershaw (51) and Josh Johnson (66). Are you sure you want to reach that early for Mr. Lee?

Hell, do you want Lincecum (21) over Kershaw (51) given what each will cost you?

Lincecum: 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 212.1 IP
Kershaw: 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP

* When are most teams jumping in and taking their #1 starter? Look at picks 53-66 for that as eight of those 14 picks are being spent on starting pitchers.

People Waiting on RPs

Not surprisingly, the best closer in the history of baseball is being drafted first at the position as Mariano Rivera has an ADP of 61. Only four other relievers are going in the top-100 with a clear grouping of three others being taken ahead of everyone else: Carlos Marmol (71), Brian Wilson (77), Joakim Soria (78). After that, we have to wait until Heath Bell at 96.

People Waiting on Catchers

Five catchers are being taken in the top-100 as people seem acutely aware of the fact that injuries can bite backstops at any time. Moreover, only six catchers are going in the next 100 picks meaning that in standard 12 team, 1 catcher leagues, someone is waiting until after the 200th selection to take first catcher. Currently, the 12th and 13th catchers off the board are Yadier Molina (215) and Carlos Ruiz (221). Those are the two catchers I selected in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA (that league starts two catchers).

* Catchers going in the 300′s that could be decent bargains in 2011: Chris Iannetta (337), Yorvit Torrealba (372) and J.P. Arencebia (374).

You can read more about Torrealba in Californian’s on the Move, and if the dumba– Rockies would just give Iannetta regular at-bats, he could be a fantasy beast. Per 541 at-bats in his career, Iannetta has produced an average of 25 homers and 91 RBI. Think Mike Napoli-lite.

By Ray Flowers

Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo

I’m still hearing some snickers about my decision to roster Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki with the 7th overall selection in the FSTA Draft that was just held in Las Vegas (for a review of my squad click on the link to Vegas Baby, and the FSTA). I still think it was the right decision, so I thought I would lay out my thoughts on the matter to show why I shouldn’t be castigated by the masses for taken the speedster over the shortstop.

(1) Crawford is as consistent as any performer in the game. Not only is he consistent from year to year, his performance is elite. At Fanball there is a tool called the Player Rater which we use to rank players fantasy value in any given season. Here is a review of where Crawford ranked amongst hitters over the past seven years using the following parameters: a 12-team mixed league using standard 5×5 scoring with 14 hitters, nine pitchers and a $260 salary cap (based on a 67/33 split of spending on hitters and pitchers).

2004: 13th overall, $25.17
2005: 10th overall, $29.44
2006: 6th overall, $31.31
2007: 11th overall, $29.03
2008: 104th overall, $8.77 (he was limited to just 109 games played)
2009: 4th overall, $33.58
2010: 3rd overall, $37.86

You can click on the following link to find the actual Player Rater Tool.

Honestly, I almost feel like I can end the debate on who I should have taken 7th overall with just those numbers. It’s alright if you admit that you are shocked by those totals by the way. Since 2004, I defy you to find a more consistently excellent player than Crawford (other than Albert Pujols of course). In his last six healthy seasons, Crawford has been no worse than the 13th best offensive performer in the fantasy game. Moreover, if we remove his injury shortened 2008 effort we find that his average “finish” in his last six healthy seasons is 7.8. What pick did I take Crawford again? Oh yeah, #7.

(2) Crawford will be a part of an excellent offense in Boston. It’s not like Crawford’s teammates in Florida were terrible by any means, but the Red Sox work pitchers about as hard as any offense in baseball. Plus, Crawford should love slapping balls off the Green Monster which means we should set the floor at .300 for his average. After all, Fenway was the best park in the American League last year in terms of hitting doubles according to Bill James’ Park Indices (it was 22% above “average” in the category).

(3) Speed kills. Crawford is pretty much a mortal lock for 45 steals having hit that mark in each of the seven seasons in his career in which he played at least 140 games. If he can stay healthy you can book the steals. Unlike others who slap the ball around the field and run like the dickens (guys like Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis and Michael Bourn - the only men in the game who exceeded or matched Crawford’s steal total of 47 in 2010), Crawford also has some pop. He’s never hit 20 homers but he has averaged 15 homers a season his last five healthy years. Last year Pierre, Gardner, Davis and Bourn hit a combined 13 homers.

(4) I know Tulowitzki plays shortstop, and there is something to be said for position scarcity, but his track record isn’t enough to prove to me that he deserves to be a top-10 option – despite the generally prevailing wisdom that says he not only should be a top-10 guy but that he could even be a top-5 overall option. Consider the following points.

(A) Twice in the last three seasons Tulowitzki has failed to play even 125 games. Remember, only once in eight years has Crawford failed to appear in 140 games.

(B) As talented as Tulowitzki is, I worry a bit about his performance. The last two seasons Tulo has produced line drive rates of 18.4 and 15.0 percent. The big league average is about 19-20 percent. I’m not saying Tulowitzki won’t continue to hit around .300, but there aren’t many guys in the game that hit .300 with line drive rates that low.

(C) Tulo doesn’t strike out too much, his career K-rate is 19.1 percent, but he also doesn’t walk too much either (9.5 percent BB-rate). Again, this isn’t a condemnation of Tulo, but a 0.56 BB/K mark for his career isn’t terrific. A little more patience at the dish would serve him well.

(D) As great as Tulo was last year to end the season when he hit .323 with 18 homers and 61 RBI over his last 60 games, he was merely really good over his first 62 games (.306-9-34). Are you certain he isn’t the first half guy? There is nothing wrong with a .300-20-80 season from a shortstop, but you don’t draft a guy in the top-10 is those are the numbers you expect.

To me, the decision to take Crawford over Tulowitzki was a no brainer. You can talk position scarcity all you want with Tulo, and it is certainly a valid point, but I would counter that with Crawford’s consistently excellent stolen base marks. I’d also fall back on the main point I made at the start of this piece – Carl Crawford has been an elite performer in six of the past seven seasons, and when I say elite there is no hyperbole involved. Tulo may one day get to that level, but for now this battle royale between Crawford and Tulowitzki ends with CC scoring a knockout in the 7th round.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer

People always ask me, ‘who are your sleepers for the coming season?’ As I wrote recently in Do Sleepers Exist?, I’m pretty dubious that we can use the term as we once did before the proliferation of information that the internet has brought. However, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t players being drafted exceedingly low that couldn’t be difference makers in the coming campaign. One of those hurlers is a guy you may never have spent 10 seconds thinking about – Tim Stauffer.

Let’s start with who the hell Tim Stauffer is.

For those of you who don’t know, and I assume that is a large portion of you, Stauffer was a first round draft pick by the Padres in 2003. However, he has never quite reached the heights expected of him after he was worked very hard his last two years in college (he has lost a few mph off his fastball from those days). Stauffer has made 38 starts and 64 appearances in his career going 14-19 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 250.1 innings. So why am I wasting the time to devote an entire column to him today? You all wanted me to talk about “sleepers” right? Well here is an example of a hurler who, if given a chance at significant innings, could be a strong NL-only option in 2011.

(1) Stauffer appears to have a shot at the 5th starters role with the Padres. Here’s how the rotation would appear to be lined up at the moment:

Mat Latos, Aaron Harang, Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard

It looks like the 5th starters spot will come down to a battle between Cory Luebke, Dustin Moseley and Stauffer.

(2) Petco is still a wonderful place to pitch no matter what role a pitcher finds himself in.

(3) Stauffer finished last season with a 1.85 ERA in 82.2 innings. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the best mark in baseball.

(4) Stauffer posted a 1.08 WHIP in 2010. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the 8th best mark in baseball.

(5) Stauffer was equally effective last season no matter what role he filled.
As a reliever: 1.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 43.1 innings (25 games)
As a stater: 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 39.1 innings (seven games)

(6) Stauffer does a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground leading to a career GB/FB mark of 1.31. That’s a solid rate, but last season he took things to a whole new level which resulted in a GB/FB mark of 1.76. Given that he induced 10 percent more ground balls last season (54.5%) than his career average (45.9%) it is fair to speculate that some regression will be forthcoming in 2011, but it’s tantalizing to think how much success he could have if he can continue to get batters to beat the ball into the ground.

Will Stauffer be able to match his ERA and WHIP from ’10 in the coming season? I don’t think he has a chance to do that even if he ends up in the bullpen. His line drive rate was far too low last season at 14.6 percent (career 18.9), and because of all the ground balls his homer total was terrific (only three allowed in 82.2 innings). Those numbers will normalize, at least somewhat, this season, and with that both of his ratios will rise. Still, that doesn’t mean that they wont end up in a zone where they would still remain strong totals in an NL-only league.

The real key to his success might be the ability to throw quality strikes while avoiding the free pass. Last season his BB/9 mark was 2.61, a massive improvement over the 4.19 mark he posted in 2009. Given that his strikeout rate has been in the mid six’s the past two seasons, it’s important that he limits the walks.

Will Stauffer be a mixed league option in 2011? He might be if he is given 30 starts, but that doesn’t mean I would go all in on him. Conversely, I do think he is a strong option in NL-only leagues while at the same time being someone you can consider rostering in deep mixed leagues in the reserve rounds.

Anyone can tell you that James Shields is a sleeper heading into the season, but you wanted a deep sleeper. I just gave you a report on one of the guys that might fit that bill in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher

I admit it, I’m jealous of Nick Swisher. Not only is he a professional baseball player who is making millions of dollars (roughly $26 million by the end of the 2011 season), but he recently wed the beautiful JoAnna Garcia. Obviously he enjoys life, and every time you see the guy he seems to have a smile on his face. He also brought a smile to his fantasy owner’s faces last year as he set a career best with a .288 batting average while hitting 29 homers with 89 RBI and 91 runs scored for the Yankees. Can he repeat that effort in 2011?

The first issue that we need to deal with is that batting average of .288. Point blank, he will not repeat it in 2011. Let me count the ways.

(1) His career batting average before last season was .245 (even now it’s just .252).

(2) In his previous five full seasons Swisher had hit .260 just one time at .262 in 2007.

(3) He vastly exceeded his career average against both righties and lefties last season.
2010: .285 vs. righties, .294 vs. lefties
Career: .249 vs. righties, .260 vs. lefties.

Wait you say, that just proves he finally figured “it” out last season. Here is my reply to that line of thought – bull. Here’s why.

Swisher had a 19.6 line drive rate last season, the second best mark of his career and a percentage point clear of his career rate. Basically it was a strong performance for Swisher, but nothing outstanding to prove that he can sustain that .288 mark.

Swisher had a BABIP mark of .335 last season, and this is where the rubber hits the road. First, Swisher had only once in five previous seasons posted a mark of .300 and that was .301 in 2007. Second, Swisher owns a career .286 mark. Add points one and two together and it’s pretty darn obvious that his .335 mark was an outlier that will not be repeated.

Swisher, always one to take a walk, saw his walk rate plummet last season. In his career, Swisher has worked a walk in 13.2 percent of his career plate appearances. From 2006-09 that number was at least 13.9 percent each season. Care to guess what the mark was last year? Try 9.1 percent. It makes little sense that he walked less and saw his batting average increase. Maybe he also cut his strikeouts? Nope. Swisher struck out 24.6 percent off the time, less than a percentage point off his career mark of 25.3 percent. The result was a career worst BB/K rate of 0.42, a mark that was only 2/3 of his career rate (0.62).

Add that all up and it’s pretty clear that you should draft Swisher in 2011 expecting his .252 career average and not the strong .288 mark he sported last season.

There is also some concern about his counting numbers. I’m not raising the white flag of surrender by any means, but the fact that his walk rate plummeted last season is a concern. If he once again fails to draw walks, and his hit rate returns to “normal” and with it his batting average drops, Swisher won’t be able to match his career OBP of .358. If that happens his runs scored mark will likely fall. In his defense he has scored at least 80 runs in each of the past five years, so he usually figures out a way to score no matter what is going on.

Swisher is also a solid run producer having knocked in at least 74 runners in five of the past six years (he had 69 RBI in 2008), and his performance in this respect should remain stable in a loaded Yankees lineup. Oh, and don’t worry about the homer totals, though that should be obvious at this point. Swisher has hit at least 21-homers each of his six healthy seasons, has had a fly ball rate of at least 44 percent each of the past five years, and has posted a HR/F ratio of at least 14.8 percent each of the past three seasons.

I’m not going to put out actual number projections for 2011 for Swisher, I think projections are too variable to have a ton of value to be honest, but I’d look for him to return to his career level in batting average while continuing the trend that has seen him hit 24 homers in four of five seasons. He’s also knocked in 80-runs each of the past two years while scoring more than 80 in 5-straight, so with that you have your baseline of what to expect in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Is Josh Beckett Finished?

A few weeks back there was an article in the Boston Herald written by John Tomase called Mound of facts against Josh Beckett in which he intimated that not only was John Beckett possibly done as a top level performer, but that the situation might even be more dire than that. Forgive me Mr. Tomase, but I think you’ve got your facts wrong, and I’ll lay out the case as to why Beckett still should have plenty of success in his future (to be fair, Mr. Tomase does end his piece with the following caveat: “It’s hard to fathom that Beckett could experience a similar fate, but for whatever it’s worth, the game’s entire history is working against him.”).

Fact: There have been 66 pitchers, who have produced 69 seasons, with an ERA above 5.75 in a season of at least 125 innings when the hurler was at least 30 years old.
Becket had an ERA of 5.78 over 127.2 innings in 2010 and he was 30 years old (injuries limited his innings).

Fact: History says that this list of hurlers failed to ever truly recapture their previous form, at least as a starting pitcher.
According to Tomase’s research, only three of the 66 hurlers “…managed to regain something even remotely approximating their form, at least as starters.”

This is the kind of trouble people get into all the time. It’s not that their facts are in error, it’s the interpretation of the data where the problems arise.

Here are the “facts” that people should pay attention to.

Fact 1: The history of hurlers being able to recapture their previous glory has no baring, absolutely none, on whether or not Beckett will be able to return to his previous form.

Fact 2: Beckett posted a K/9 rate of 8.18 in 2010, the 4th straight season that mark has been over eight, and the ninth time in 10 big league seasons that he has been over eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Fact 3: Though his walk rate was a bit elevated at 3.17 (career 2.77), his free pass rate was still better than the league average of 3.28.

Fact 4: His GB/FB ratio was 1.30, slightly better than his career average of 1.25, and the 8th straight season that mark has been above 1.20.

Fact 5: Beckett allowed a line drive rate of 19.0 percent which is slightly better than his career rate of 19.7 percent. Moreover, his ground ball rate was one percent above his career rate while his fly ball rate was a match for his career level.

Does any of that sound like a pitcher who is doomed to fail because history says he will? Of course not. The truth is that Beckett’s 2010 effort, despite his whopping 5.78 ERA, wasn’t that different from his “normal” effort. So why did he post an ERA that approached 6.00? I’ve got a couple of obvious explanations for the struggles, but here is the main point – flat out, he was unlucky.

(1) Given that his LD/GB/FB rates were all nearly identical to his career levels, it simply isn’t possible to explain why his BABIP rate was a career worst at .349, a full .044 points worse than his career average, unless we hang our hats on bad luck.

(2) When batters did hit the ball in the air it flew over the fence far too often. Becket has often surrendered gopher balls in bunches, but his career HR/9 mark of 1.01 isn’t awful, an in fact, it’s an almost dead on match for the league average. Somehow that mark jumped to 1.41 last year, this after 3-straight years between 0.76 and 1.06. Bad luck strikes yet again.

(3) Beckett allowed a HR/F ratio of 14.2 percent, the second worst mark in his 10-year career, and well above his career 11.0 percent rate (the big league average is usually 9-10 percent). Moreover, 2010 was only the third time in his career that he posted a mark over 10.5 percent.

(4) Beckett had a left on base percentage of 65.3 percent. Mind you the big league average is about 70 percent and that Beckett owns a career mark of 71.5 percent. Given that data you might have guessed that Beckett’s 65.3 percent mark was a career worst. If you came to that conclusion give yourself a pat on the back – you were correct.

Fact or Fiction: Beckett will return to being a top of the rotation arm?
Despite the interesting historical data in the Herald piece, I’m not buying the position that Beckett is finished. His underlying skills remain stable despite his terrible ERA from 2010, and there was clearly a whole heaping ton of bad luck tossed his way last season. With Beckett the key will be the same as it always is – can he stay healthy? If Beckett is healthy enough to throw 180+ innings in 2011, his performance will be strong despite the fact that history says he is fighting an uphill battle.

Around the Horn: Jan.21, 2011

(1) The FSTA Convention in Las Vegas.

(2) Where will Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon end up?

(3) The Athletics team wide makeover is impressive. Here is an additionl report on their arms in A’s Astounding Bullpen.

(4) The Yankees signed Andruw Jones to a 1-year deal.

(5) Nate McLouth to be given shot to return to starting in CF.

You can read more about the Jones and McLouth news in MLB News and Notes.

By Ray Flowers

How to Evaluate a Player

This is the time of year that everyone is starting to really get into fantasy baseball. Magazines are starting to show up on the newsstands, mock drafts are heating up on line, and everyone is going about starting to piece together their cheat sheets for draft day. But a key component of how to put together the best team on draft day is often neglected, and that is how you actually evaluate a player. In what follows, I’ll point out some key thoughts to help you to learn how to properly address the question of what a guy’s value is for the coming season, and in order to do so I will focus on John Buck.

First, some general rules.

(1) You need to take into account what happened in 2010, but you need to be forward thinking, not rear looking.

(2) There is more to a player than 5×5 fantasy stats. Make sure you add into the equation where he plays his game (does the park favor hitters or pitchers?), where he will hit in the lineup and who will surround him in that lineup. Remember, counting numbers like runs and RBI are largely a function of the performance of teammates.

(3) Identify trends – but make sure the sample size is relevant. If a player has improved his batting average against left-handed pitching 4-straight years that trend means something. If he merely improved over 45 at-bats in the second half of last season, is that really relevant?

(4) Understand which measures to really focus on. Here is where many people are tripped up as they get bogged down focusing on the wrong things.

Lets get to Mr. Buck to illustrate what I mean.

Last season Buck hit 20 homers, a career best. So he should hit at least 20 homers again, right? WRONG.

You need to look deeper than the surface numbers.

(a) Buck received more at-bats than ever before which partly explains the 20 homers. In fact, his HR/AB mark of one every 20.5 really isn’t drastically different from his 25.8 career mark.

(b) For the third time in four years his fly ball ratio was over 44 percent. However, it was actually a career-high of 44.7 percent, which when matched with a 14.7 percent HR/F ratio, the second best mark of his career, allowed him to reach his career best in homers. That’s a lot of factors coming together to help aid that homer total.

(c) In 2010 his home stadium in Toronto was the 2nd best park in the AL to deep in for right-handed batters according to Park Indicies. Buck will be playing in Florida in 2011, and last year Sun Life Stadium was just 13th in the NL in homers allowed to right-handed batters. That’s a massive change he will have to deal with. Buck will also be counted on to be one of the main power bats in Florida, whereas in Toronto he was just a depth guy at the end of the lineup (last year the Jays hit 257 home runs while the Marlins had more than 100 less at 152).

Given those three data points, it really isn’t wise to expect another 20 homer season from Buck. It could happen, but the odds are certainly against it.

Let us move to the batting average category.

Do you know what the difference is between hitting .270 and .300 is over the course of 500 at-bats? You’d produce 150 hits in 500 at-bats to hit .300 while you would produce 135 hits for a .270 mark. The 15 hits difference sounds like a wide gulf until you realize that the baseball season is basically six months long. That means the difference between hitting .270 and .300 is about one 2.5 hits a month or roughly a hit every 12 days. That’s a razor thin margin.

In the case of Buck, there are plenty of reasons to think his career best .281 mark last season was a fluke.

(a) Buck is a career .243 hitter.

(b) In seven seasons he has only hit .250 once.

(c) Buck led baseball with a .409 average against left-handed pitching (min. 50 at-bats). That mark is .142 above his career level.

That’s the history which says he has no chance to repeat. As for an in depth look beneath the .281 mark, all the indicators also say to be very afraid of a repeat.

(a) He had the worst walk rate of his career at 3.7 percent (career 6.5). A lack of patience does not bode well for continued batting average success.

(b) He struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats. Moreover, his 27.1 percent K-rate was actually worse than his career 26.3 percent mark. If you strikeout that much it’s very difficult to consistently be a productive batting average option.

(c) Despite the career best average, Buck had a line drive rate of 16.1 percent, a mark that was 0.7 worse than his career level. How was he able to better his career batting average by almost .040 points while hitting fewer line drives than normal? How about this – he was lucky. Buck’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) mark was .335. Only once in his previous six seasons had that mark been over .300, and his career rate is just .289. It makes no sense that his line drive rate dropped while his BABIP sky rocketed.

Bottom line: Buck will hit home runs, he has a lot of power, but a run to another 20 homers seems improbable. As for his batting average, he has about a three percent chance of once again hitting .280. In fact, I’d lay better than 50/50 odds that his average will once again drop below .250.

Hopefully this brief primer will help to point you in the right direction when you start to put together your cheat sheets for draft day. Take into account the opinions of people that you know and respect, but at the same time don’t be afraid to role up your sleeves and do some analysis on your own – you might surprise yourself with how fun it is.

By Ray Flowers

Biding My Time

I’m sitting here staring out the window. We’re all kind of in no-man’s land right now. Playoff football is ongoing, but fantasy football is basically over for most people (those playoff leagues just don’t do it for me). I’m one of the few people who actually plays fantasy hockey, and likewise there is a small but dedicated group that plays fantasy basketball, but we are in the minority. So where does that leave most fantasy sports addicts? It leaves you begging for the fantasy baseball season to begin. It’s about a month until pitchers and catchers report, and February is usually when the heavy lifting really starts with fantasy baseball, though to be honest, I’ve literally been writing about the 2011 fantasy baseball season since October. I know, I have a disease don’t I?

I’ll also be attending the FSTA Trade Association meeting in Las Vegas this weekend, so if you’re gonna be there let me know and we’ll grab a beer (or a fruity drink with an umbrella in it).

PLAYER RATINGS

Over at ESPN they have a whole section devoted to different player rating systems: Inside Edge, The Baseball Encyclopedia, ESPN Rating and Elias. Here are a few things that jumped out at me from those rankings.

Miguel Cabrera was the top player in 2010 according to two of the systems (ESPN and Elias). The man widely regarded as the best player in baseball – Albert Pujols – was second on the ESPN scale and came in at 6th in the Elias Rankings.

According to Inside Edge, the best player in baseball last year was Josh Johnson. I don’t know what the formula is for this measure, but when your top-5 includes Johnson, Cliff Lee and Paul Konerko, consider me dubious as to it’s value.

The top-3 performers according to the Baseball Encyclopedia were Troy Tulowitzki, Pujols and Robinson Cano. How could a guy who appeared in only 122 games last season be the best player in baseball?

You can check out the rankings for yourself at the link above, but here is their top-10 based on the average ranking of the four systems:

1- Albert Pujols
2- Miguel Cabrera
3- Roy Halladay
4- Joey Votto
5- Felix Hernandez
6- Jose Bautista (seriously)
7- Paul Konerko (gulp)
8- Ubaldo Jimenez
9- Adam Wainwright
10- Josh Hamilton

PLAYER PROFILE – LANCE BERKMAN

I wrote about the new Cardinals outfielder in Breaking Down: Lance Berkman. Here is a brief synopsis of what I said there.

“Currently sporting an ADP in the 300′s, it would seem that Berkman is in a good position to far surpass the value he is currently being assigned. It would be wise to avoid expecting a return to the salad days for Berkman, but if he slips far enough in drafts he is well worth taking a shot on as a mutli-position guy who will hit behind, arguably, the two best right-handed hitters in the National League.”

PAVANO STAYS WITH TWINS
After flirting with signing a big money, 1-year deal with the Yankees (how desperate are the Bronx Bombers when you realize they contemplated bringing back a guy who won nine games over four years with the club back in 2005-08?), Pavano decided he liked where he was signing a 2-year, $16.5 million deal to remain with the Twins. I predicted back on December 6th, 2010 that Pavano would hit it big as the second best starting pitcher on the market in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010. I missed on that one. I’m surprised that in this market, where middle relievers were getting 3-year deals at more than $4 million a season, that Pavano was only able to lock down a two year deal.

JUST BECAUSE…

One of the greatest set of lines in movie history thanks to Ron Burgundy.

By Ray Flowers

Arbitration Avoided

It only seems like every player in baseball signed a contract today.

A whole heaping ton of players avoided the arbitration process today by agreeing to contracts with their current clubs. I wont bore you to tears breaking down names like Boone Logan (1-year, $1.2 million), but I will discuss the deals for some of the bigger names guys who agreed to remain with their teams without having to go through the acrimonious arbitration process.

Chad Billingsley ($6.275 million): In each of the past four years he has won 12 games, only four others have done that, and in each of the past three years he has at least 170 Ks (only 10 others have done that).

Matt Capps ($7.15 million): The Twins wanted to keep a reliever who could close in case that Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) isn’t ready to fill the role 100 percent of the time in the early going. They therefore agreed to a deal to keep Capps, who had 42 saves last year. This is a smart baseball move that gives the Twins a terrific fall back option if Nathan isn’t ready, but in terms of real world dollars, it’s a pretty awful move for the Twins. This isn’t the Yankees we are talking about, so the $18.4 million the club has invested in their 8th and 9th inning arms is exorbitant.

John Danks ($6 million): Evolving into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, Danks made $3.45 million last year. Amongst AL lefties the past two years he is 6th in ERA (3.75), 5th in base runners per nine innings (11.43), fifth in strikeouts (311) and fourth in wins (28).

Jacoby Ellsbury ($2.4 million): After playing only 18 games in 2010 this is a lot of money for Ellsbury. However, if he returns to health, pushes .300 with 90 runs and 50 steals, it will be a massive bargain for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza ($5.95 million): I broke down the Garza and his talents in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

J.J. Hardy ($5.85 million): A decent figure for both sides if Hardy is healthy. If he is in fact fully functional, he could hit .270 with 20 homers, and there are only a handful of shortstops who can match that.

Phil Hughes ($2.7): A reasonable sum to be sure if he is indeed a third starter. Hughes won 18 games with a 1.25 WHIP last season, but he was decidedly average in the second half of the year (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

Kendry Morales ($2.975 million): He could be a top-10 option at first base this season, so don’t forget about the guy who blew his knee out celebrating a walk-off home run in his last game of the 2010 season.

Jonathan Papelbon ($12 million): Yikes. You have to think he will be taking a pay cut next year when he becomes a free agent, but because of the arbitration process the Red Sox were basically forced to pay way to much money for a guy who, it can be argued, is coming off his worst season in five years as the closer. Luckily it’s the Red Sox who seem to have a printing press for bills in the basemen of Fenway.

Martin Prado ($3.1 million): The plan is for him to play left field. His bat is likely miscast for that role – at least in terms of it providing a lot of fantasy value – but for 2011 at least he will still qualify as second and third baseman leaving him with a ton of value. Oh yeah, he also hit .307 in 2009, .307 in 2010 and owns a career average of, you guessed it, .307.

Carlos Quentin ($5.05 million): He might always struggle to repeat his terrific 2008 season (.288-36-100-96 in just 130 games), but he has a nice power bat. If he can stay healthy he could be Adam Dunn Jr. hitting .250 with 30 homers.

Cody Ross ($6.3 million): He made $4 million last season when he had a merely average regular season (.269-14-65-71-9). However, he had big hit after big hit in the postseason (.294-5-10) which basically forced the Giants hand. He isn’t a good bet for anything other than an ordinary .270-20-75 season.

By Ray Flowers