Archive for February, 2011

Spring Training – Injuries

choo-swingin-allison-keith

Photo by Keith Allison

Things are finally starting to heat up. Games are underway, baseball fever is starting to percolate once again meaning there are plenty of topics to discuss as MLB gets ready for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll focus on one aspect of the spring talk by breaking down the situation of a few of the players who have been in the news for the wrong reason – they’re dealing with some type of injury concern.

Shin-Soo Choo is dealing with a hyper extended elbow. Everyone is saying the right things, and the big key is that this does not appear to be related to previous Tommy John surgery. Keep an eye on the situation, but it looks like Choo should be good to go when it counts in his attempt to post a third straight 20/20 season with a .300 average (Choo and Hanley Ramirez are the only two players who have hit all three of those levels the last two years).

Adrian Gonzalez is swinging the bat though we’re talking about him hitting balls off a tee and in soft toss, and we are talking about a max of 60 swings a day. I take that many cuts a day when I’m stretching to lift weights in my garage. I expect Gonzalez to be fully healthy by the start of the year, but does that mean we should expect him to be operating at 100 percent? I know he is an elite talent, but we are just about a month away from regular season games and he hasn’t even come close to taking batting practice. Doesn’t that make you nervous? Think of the case of Chipper Jones. He’s coming back from knee surgery and everyone is freaked out that his career is over (granted there is a massive difference with the health record of each, and Chipper is about 29 years older, but still). I hate to break this to you all, but Chipper is way ahead of A-Gone right now since he’s fielding, sliding, and even DH’ing on Monday. Is perception reality?

I had a nice, lazy weekend. It’s amazing what fun doing nothing can be if you actually have the time to do nothing. After years of working 65+ hours every week I might actually like this having a normal work day type of thing. At the same time, I might go bored out of my mind too, so time will tell.

It looks like the Pirates are planning on using Andrew McCutchen in the third hole this season, his rightful place given that he is by far and away the best hitter wearing a Pirates’ uniform. In each of the last two years he has hit .286 with a .365 meaning only some slight improvement will take his game to the elite level. If there was one guy who hasn’t hit 20 homers with 30 steals but could this season it’s McCutchen. I don’t think the move to third in the order will cut down on him swiping a bag, and it should help to boost his RBI total substantially.

Mike Stanton tweaked his right quad on Sunday, and everyone started panicking. It doesn’t appear that he blew the leg out or anything, but the team will obviously take a measured approach with their future power hitting star (reports suggest that he could be out of game action for two weeks). Stanton only appeared in 100 games last season, but if you give him 150 games played at last years pace you’d end up with 33 homers, 89 RBI and 184 strike outs. Where have I see that before… oh yeah, Adam Dunn.

The Beastie Boys really have annoying voices don’t they? Still they have some dope beats, yes I just wrote “dope beats,” and I still enjoy their music. I can also remember the horn tweeters in my pick-up truck blasting Paul Revere back in the day.

Brandon Webb might be showing all kinds of positive signs but let’s slow down the plans for a ticker tape parade. He’s tossed only four innings the past two years, and shoulder woes are very tough to recovery from. Plus, just because throwing long toss and tossing the pill off flat ground is going well, that doesn’t mean you can pencil him in for 180 quality innings this year. He might end up being a solid fifth starter type in mixed leagues, but there is no way I’m drafting him expecting that to become reality.

I know this is a year old, but I still love my artwork in the video so I’m going to re-post it for all of you. It’s a brief history of who Ray Flowers is, and what his goals are in the fantasy sports world, and it’s called The Illustrated Ray Flowers.

Joel Zumaya tossed his first inning of the spring and reported no problems with his body. When healthy, and he never is, there isn’t a more fearsome pitcher in baseball which begs the question – is it possible that Zumaya actually throws too hard for his body? By that I mean does he generate such torque and power that his body literally can’t stand the stress? It’s a fair question for a man who has thrown his average fastball at 98.5 mph in his career. Still, ever time he comes back from injury the heat is always there. In 2009 he tossed only 31 innings but his heater was 99.3 mph, the same speed it was last year when he threw 38.1 innings. You can only take a shot on him late in AL-only drafts, but if he could ever stay healthy — well, just look at his rookie season for proof of what he could do (1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.48 K/9). Amazingly, he hasn’t thrown even 40-innings in any of the last four years.

Finally, my thoughts go out to the family and friends of Duke Snider who passed away at 84 years old. For more on the “The Duke of Flatbush” give Ben Walker’s piece a read.

 

By Ray Flowers

NHL Trade Deadline Diary

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Crashing the Net normally takes you around the league touching on hot and cold players, battles for ice-time and what’s going on in net, but today it’s all about the trade deadline deals that were made across the league.

Kings receive: Dustin Penner
Oilers receive: Colten Teubert, 1st rd. pick in 2011, 3rd rd. in 2012
The biggest deal of the day. Penner, who has one more year on his contract at $4.25 million, will get a shot with a Kings team that has to be feared as the playoffs approach. Penner finally fulfilled his potential last season scoring 32 goals and recording 63 points, and though his pace has slowed a bit this season (21g, 18a), he has still been pretty effective considering all the injuries the Oilers’ have suffered up front. His outlook improves with the move to L.A. as his plus/minus (-12) mark should improve. If he is able to skate on a line with point scoring star Anze Kopitar than his fantasy outlook would improve even further. The package the Oilers receive will do nothing to help out their club, at the NHL level, for years.

Capitals receive: Dennis Wideman
Panthers receive: Jake Hauswirth, 2011 3rd rd. pick
With Mike Green out with a head injury (for at least a week), Wideman will likely see plenty of power-play time with a potent group of forwards in Washington. Wideman, with a poor club in Florida this year is an awful (-26) but he has still managed 33 points including 19 on the power-play. Look for his fantasy stock to climb, perhaps substantially, the rest of the way – especially if Green continues to be sidelined.

Hauswirth has 14 points in 37 ECHL games this year and may never make a splash in the NHL, so this looks like a bit of a salary dump and an attempt to get younger by the Panthers.

Thrashers receive: Radek Dvorak, 5th rd. pick
Panthers receive: Niclas Bergfors, Pat Rissmiller
This is a bit of an odd one to digest. Dvorak is 33 years old and has over 1,110 games of NHL experience, and he’s in the final year of his contact. He’s also scored only 21 points in 53 games this season. On the other side, the Panthers receive a talented forward who is 23 years old in Bergfors, and he managed to record 44 points last year (the last time Dvorak hit that mark was 2003). Bergfors has been a disappointment this season with only 11 goals and 29 points in 52 games, but the former first round draft pick (2005) certainly has the talent, and youth, to make this a winning move for the Panthers.

Sabres receive: Brad Boyes
Blues receive: 2nd rd. pick in 2011
How the mighty have fallen. Boyes recorded 76 goals in 2007-08, but over the past two years he has scored a mere 26 times. The biggest culprit has been the tanking of his shooting percentage. After posting marks of 20.8 and 15.0 percent, Boyes dipped to 7.1 percent last year and has only slightly improved that number this season at 9.1 percent. He figures to get all the top-6 minutes he can handle with the Sabres, but at this point if you’re expecting a return to his 2007-08 scoring ways I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

Blue Jackets receive: Scottie Upshall, Sami Lepisto
Coyotes receive: Rostislav Klesla, Dane Byers
A lifelong Blue Jacket, Klesla is a solid blue liner, when healthy, and that’s been the rub since he’s appeared in 70 games only twice since 2003. He can eat up ice-time and be a stabilizing influence on the backend, but he warrants no attention whatsoever in the fantasy game. Byers was drafted 48th in 2004 and has 34 points in 64 games in the AHL this season.

The only big name in this deal, in terms of fantasy production, is Upshall. Scottie scored 18 goals in 49 games last year before a major knee injury hit, but he has returned this season to score 16 times in 61 games. There is no reason to think that Upshall will be anything other than a top-6 forward with the Blue Jackets, so he should be expected to get at least as much ice-time as he was receiving in the desert. If he finds his way onto a line with Rick Nash, well, then we could be talking about some serious fantasy production. Lepisto? He is a solid blue liner but five goals and 22 assists in 131 games relegates him to every waiver-wire in the world.

Canucks receive: Chris Higgins
Panthers receive: Evan Oberg, 3rd rd. draft pick in 2011
The Canucks were rumored to be in the mix to add some forward depth, so it’s not surprising that they made this move. Higgins is currently day-to-day with a broken thumb  so he will have to wait to pull on his new sweater. When he does join the Canucks he will look to return to being the offensive weapon he was from 2005-07 when he scored at least 22 goals each season. Higgins has some offensive skill no doubt, but the thumb injury, poor production of late (19 goals in his last 115 games) and the probability that he won’t be able to get top-6 minutes in Vancouver mean that he isn’t a player of interest, at the moment, in fantasy.

Capitals receive: Jason Arnott
Devils receive: David Steckel
Arnott has long been one of the more steady producers in the game as he scored at least 20-goals each year from 1998-2008 (he scored just 19 times last year though he appeared in only 63 contests). At 36 years of age he isn’t going to all of a sudden turn into an iron man – he’s failed to appear in 70-games  in three of the past four years – and his production this season has been poor (13g, 9a, [-9] in 62 games). It’s about health, motivation and role at this point of his career. If all three come up aces he would make a solid pickup in fantasy leagues, but you know how difficult it is to get three of a kind in a game of poker, right?

Flames receive: Fredrik Modin
Thrashers receive: 7th rd. pick in 2011
A veteran who still possesses a modicum of offensive talent, Modin just can’t stay healthy. Since the start of last season he has appeared in only 80 games recording 12 goals and a terrible (-19) rating for three clubs (Columbus, Los Angeles and Atlanta). Even if he starts out hot with the Flames, don’t expect it to continue. There’s nothing to see here.

Blackhawks receive: Chris Campoli, 7th rd. pick in 2011
Senators receive: Ryan Potulny, 2nd rd. pick in 2011
Campoli has some offensive skill, but he isn’t exactly a stout defender. He posted 14 points in 58 games for the Senators, and though his (-3) rating is poor, it’s not awful considering what has gone on in Ottawa. He isn’t likely to get much power-play time in Chicago, so don’t fall all over yourself to add him to your squad.

Potulny was a third round selection in 2003 and he’s never been able to do much of anything in the NHL appearing in only 119 games (22g, 27a). Still, he recorded 38 goals in the AHL in 2008, and last year he has 15 goals in 64 games with the Oilers. If he’s given a lot of ice-time there is chance that he could do something of note, but it’s unclear how the Sens plan on using the center.

Panthers receive: Sergei Samsonov
Hurricanes receive: Bryan Allen
At one point Sergei had so many moves that it was dizzying to watch him with the puck on his stick. He scored 22 or more goals in four of his first five seasons (1997-2001), but since then he has only one 20-goal effort. He had 10 goals and 16 helpers in 58 games with the ‘Canes this season though he has only three points in his last 12 contests. He should be given plenty of time on the ice in Florida, but at this stage of his career it matters little.

Allen is yet another Panther who was moved. He’s a decent option in leagues that count hits (83) or blocked shots (76), but if you are in a more traditional scoring league he has no value at all with 12 points, a (-5) rating and 63 PIMs in 53 games. The deal doesn’t figure to drastically alter his fantasy outlook either.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

2011 Player Capsules: First Base, Third Base

 

You’re killing me.

I say that with all due respect mind you. Let me tell you what I mean.

I sit at my computer all day, every day, typing away answering emails, writing articles, researching etc. It’s a rather sad existence at times (who am I kidding, how great is it that I get to work in my slippers?). I’m used to long days, 12 hours is often the norm, so I’m not unfamiliar with onerous work schedules. So what did I mean when I led off this piece with “you’re killing me?”

Simply put, my mailbox has been flooded with requests for the FREE player capsules I’m giving away. I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to you, the reader, that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com – Fantasy Baseball Blog.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

FIRST BASE / THIRD BASE
Again, to lighten the workload a bit, I figured I would combine corner infielders (1B, 3B) today.

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Derrek Lee
When healthy he has rarely been great but he is almost always very good. In each of his last 10 healthy seasons he has hit at least 19 homers with 70 runs and 70 RBI. Those numbers don’t sound exciting, but since 2000 his total of 10 such seasons leads all first basemen. Age is catching up with him, and he never runs anymore, but he is a safe option if you don’t reach.

Aubrey Huff
Huff and the Rally Thong helped lead the Giants to the World Series, and they’ll both be back for two more years in San Francisco. One of only four first basemen to hit .290 with 25 homers, 85 RBI and 100 runs, Huff rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to post his 7th 20-homer season and his 6th season of 85 RBI. If you pay for a repeat you should be on fairly solid ground.

Pablo Sandoval
Thinking the way to major league success was paved with pizza and profiteroles, Sandoval’s weight was/is a major issue. The Giants have put Pablo on notice that if he can’t see his toes, he could be sent to the minors. Just a year removed from an all-star caliber season, Sandoval would benefit from a more patient approach. Can weight loss help that?

The Corner Infielder code is: Plentiful Power

One last thing. For those of you looking for some baseball talk, you can click on this link to the DSD Podcast. I talked with Aaron and Karter about Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and other topics around major league baseball.

By Ray Flowers

 

 

 

Injuries and Random Musings

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After the last couple of days where I’ve hit the “attach” button in email about nine zillion times sending out player capsules for designated hitters and catchers (thanks to all of you for your continued support), I thought I’d give myself a break and break down some of the more intriguing stories on the diamond with a particular focus on injuries.

* Adam Wainwright is done for 2011 as he’ll need Tommy John surgery. With a recovery time frame of 12-18 months, it’s not at all certain that he will be back on the hill for Opening Day 2012. Not only is that an obviously crushing blow to the Cards, it’s also a massive damper in the fantasy game which brings up two points.

(1) As much as I love doing mock drafts, having a draft for a league that you are actually going to play out before the month of March is crazy. In fact, you might want to push back your draft to late March because some big player is always hurt in camp leaving a gaping hole on the roster of the person who took that player. This year it was the Wainwright owner. Last year it was Joe Nathan who hosed me in my AL-only league leaving my team, well, to put it bluntly, screwed.

(2) The injury to Wainwright is reason #736 why drafting a pitcher in the first couple of rounds of a fantasy draft is such a risk. Any player can be injured at any time, but the chance of a catastrophic injury to a pitcher is far greater than one to an every day player.

* Just for the hell of it. Vernon Wells, who no one seems to like in fantasy or the real world (that is unless you are in the Angels’ front office), had three more RBI last year than Jayson Werth (88 to 85).

* Say it with me — I’m scared when health challenged players are already having problems early in camp. Some thoughts.

Justin Morneau: He’s progressing in his return from his concussion, even hitting live pitching the past two days which brings up two questions. (1) What the hell is live pitching? Is there “dead” pitching? (2) How bad are things with Morneau that we legitimately get happy hearing that he did something about 137.2 million kids have done the past two days. The Twins say he is still on pace to make the opening day roster, so we’ll all continue to send Justin happy thoughts. For more on Morneau click on Circling the Bases, my weekly column that will be featured at Rotowire.com.

Brian Roberts: He said he tweaked his neck while sleeping (apparently staying up late to watch infomercials about the Ab Crunch 7000 can make your neck sore). He’s missed a couple of days and could return to the field on Friday. Still, after all of his setbacks last season with his back, consider me exceedingly nervous with the talented second sacker.

Grady Sizemore: The 28 year old outfielder ran sprints this week for the first time since having microfracture surgery on his knee. Now we get a report from Buster Olney that it appears likely Sizemore will begin the year on the DL because he’s just not ready to go. I don’t know about you, but this guy scares the bejeus out of me and that’s hard to do because of my love of horror movies.

* Can anyone help me to understand why I’m borderline obsessed with Kristen Stewart of Twilight fame? She’s attractive sure, but it’s not like she is a bombshell or anything, and half the time she looks like she has been puffing on the magic dragon. Still, when she is on the screen I just can’t take my eyes off her.  By the way, I saw all three of the Twilight movies with my girlfriend at the time, and while I may not be a 16 year teen in throws of hormonal upheaval, I will admit to liking them – at least a little bit.

* Don’t forget about Alex Gordon on draft day. Ned Yost, Royals’ manager, is impressed with how Gordon has looked after working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer this offseason. This is likely Gordon’s last shot to earn a full-time role with the Royals, a shocking admission for a guy who was taken 2nd overall in the 2005 Draft. I won’t reach for Gordon, but in rounds 25 and up in mixed leagues he’s as worthy as most of the riff raff that will be called out.

* Just for the hell of it Part II. Juan Pierre led the majors last year with 18 caught stealing which happens to be the same steal total that Hunter Pence and Justin Upton posted.

* And finally a parting shot. Remember sample size people. Don’t make the mistake of simply looking at a month of games, or a handful of starts from a pitcher, and think you’ve got it all figured out. Anyone can look good, or conversely horrible, if you take a quick snapshot. You want proof?
This pitcher went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP In August.
Who is this hurler?

The answer will likely shock some. It is Tim Lincecum who won 16 games, posted a solid 3.43 ERA, had a 1.27 WHIP and had 231 Ks to lead the NL. By the way, The Freak rebounded after his atrocious month of pitching to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.

Sample size people.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: Catchers

 

 

Over the next little while I’m going to release hundreds of player capsules for hitters. I’ll break them down by positions each day, and give you a sampling of what I’m going to provide to each of you. So this is how it will work.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

Here is an example of what to expect.

Chris Iannetta
For some reason the Rockies haven’t trusted this guy despite the fact that per 500 at-bats in his career that he has averaged roughly 23 homers and 83 RBI. His batting average is an eyesore, he owns a career .234 mark, but with ample power and an ability to take a walk (.353 career OBP), it’s odd that he has been given more than 300 at-bats just once in his career.

Yadier Molina
A batting average booster in 2007-09, Yadier fell on hard times last season posting his worst average since 2006. Despite that fact, there is reason for optimism. His walk rate was up last season leaving him with a career average BB/K mark, and his line drive rate was a career-high 21 percent. A .281 BABIP likely speaks to a bit of poor luck for the Cardinal in 2010.

Jorge Posada
At nearly 40 years of age, Posada simply can’t handle the rigors of catching on a daily basis. That’s why the Yankees plan to use Posada as their DH in 2011. Can Posada still hit? He will be a threat to 20 homers and 70 RBI – totals he has reached eight times in the same season – if he can stay healthy, but beware his declining bat speed and what that might do to his average.

The Catcher code is: Tools of Ignorance

 

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: Designated Hitters

People have been clamoring for my thoughts on players for years. The fervor is almost like when the paparazzi try to snap photos of Lindsey Lohan as she sneaks out the back door of yet another club,or rehab center, bombed out of her mind on the latest designer vodka. OK, it may not be quite like that, and truthfully the only real parallel is that Lindsey and I like to pull back on Belvedere when we get the chance. Still, some people are interested to hear my thoughts on players, so here is what I’m going to do for all of you at BaseballGuys.com.

Over the next little while I’m going to release hundreds of player capsules for hitters. I’ll break them down by positions each day, and give you a sampling of what I’m going to provide to each of you. So this is how it will work.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position of the day that is being discussed.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE !

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

Deal?

DESIGNATED HITTER

Here’s a sample of what you’ll be getting.

Jack Cust
Cust will fight for at-bats in the Pacific Northwest a year after failing to hit 25 homers for the first time in four seasons. Cust walked and struck out like he always does, but the lack of long ball power was a big surprise. That trend may not turn around in a difficult yard to go deep in. Lost in all of that is the fact that Cust hit a career best .272, though that’s hardly promising on its own.

Nick Johnson
At some point you have to realize that She’s Just Not That Into You (shameless movie reference). Johnson is a talented on base machine, but he has about as much chance of staying healthy long enough to be a fantasy weapon as I do of exactly predicting his at-bat total (good luck getting within 100). You should only call out Johnson’s name on draft day if you are a masochist.

The Designated Hitter code is: Ban the DH

By Ray Flowers

 

 

K-BAD 2011: PART III

baseballguys-grey-logo

In Part III of my review of the K-BAD experts draft at KFFL, I’ll wrap things up by breaking down my final eight selections and then giving a quick review of the squad I assembled. Here are some links that are pertinent to the piece as well.

K-BAD HOMEPAGE

PART I – Selections 1-10
PART II - Selections 11-20.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 21-8: Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
s a 5th outfielder, as long as he is healthy, Soriano should be fine. Looking at the available options, I just didn’t see many who could hit 25 homers while scoring/knocking in 90.

Round 22-5: Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox
I almost pulled the trigger on Floyd in the 20th round, so I pretty much had to take him in the 22nd. People always seem to neglect Floyd who has been stable, and pretty darn good the past two years.

Round 23-8: Brandon League, RP, Mariners
I’m not at all convinced that David Aardsma will be healthy and/or effective (he’s likely to miss the start of the year coming back from hip surgery). I wrote about this situation in A Hip that Makes You Hop.

Round 24-5: Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates
Honestly, this is a total shot in the dark. He’s the only catcher left on the board who I think could go .270-15-60, though he’ll need a trade to get anywhere close to that. He could be the first player I dump.

Round 25-8: James Loney, 1B, Dodgers
Boring, but I needed a corner infield option, and I certainly didn’t want to take Chipper Jones. Loney has little upside, but he does have 268 RBI the last three years which is, shockingly, seven more than Paul Konerko.

Round 26-5: Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
I wanted to bolster my pitching staff, but there are a handful of starters and relievers still available who I could go with, so I backed up my weakest hitting position by adding this speedster (my other SS is Jason Bartlett).

Round 27-8: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
Best pitcher, skill wise, left amongst relievers. Still, I gave heavy consideration to Jake McGee who could close for Rays and Clay Hensley as a handcuff to my ealier selection of Leo Nunez.

Round 28-5: Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
I wanted to add depth in the outfield with my last pick and also gave a thought to calling out Roger Bernadina, Alex Gordon or David DeJesus (though DD was taken the pick before me).

REPORT CARD

* This team has lots of speed. Pierre should push 50 steals, Upton should get 40, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see McCutchen go for at least 30. I’m also expecting 15 from guys like Utley, Braun, Bartlett and Zobrist. Barring injury, I should win this category.

* My average might be lacking a bit since I took Dunn and Reynolds. Still, they are about as powerful a 1B/3B combo as anyone could hope to have. Yadier Molina usually has a decent average versus other catchers, and Utley, Braun and Kendrick should hit .300 to keep me respectable here – I hope.

* The power of this club is strong. I should get at least 70 bombs from Dunn and Reynolds, and if I don’t get at least 60 from Braun and Utley I’d be surprised. Zobrist, Lee, Upton, McCutchen and Soriano should all also hit 20.

* On the hill, saves are a bit of a question. Soria is a star as my anchor, and Hanrahan was named the Pirates’ closer two days after I drafted him which certainly helps. If Nunez can hold on to his strikeout and ground ball gains from last season, I could have three solid closers. I also expect League to start off as the closer with Aardsma coming back from injury, and Madson is just one pitch away from an injury to Brad Lidge to being called on in the 9th inning for the Phillies.  Maybe this unit isn’t a bad as I thought.

* At the top Sabathia and Hanson are a dynamic 1-2 punch, and I’ll take Billingsley as a #3 in any league. If things come together for Nolasco he will be the best 4th SP in the league, and guys like Baker and Floyd give me a strong top-6. Still, I do regret going against my normal tradition of waiting on pitching. Even though I took two SPs in the first seven rounds I’m not convinced that my team is appreciably better than it would have been if I had waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler.

Every team has a weakness, but overall I really like the way this draft played out. I picked up a bunch of the players that I targeted, so if everyone stays healthy I should be in line for another top-3 finish… but there is a whole of baseball that has to be played before we’ll know for sure how I did.


By Ray Flowers

Crashing the Net: Feb.21

anderson-craig-avs

Don’t panic, I’m not going soft on all of you. I just thought I would post my hockey article for those of you who follow the fastest game on ice. I’m still all baseball all the time at BaseballGuys.com – minus a little diversion here or there.

FIRE

Here are the NHL leaders in offense the past 14 days.

Goals (9): Michael Grabner. It’s hardly a shock he is the leader since he has 16 markers in his last 17 games.

Assists
(8): Olli Jokinen. He has 12 points his last seven games.
Corey Perry: He’s 13 short of his career best of 49 assists.
Ryan Getzlaf: Because of injury, he’ll have to push to reach 50 assists for 4th straight year (he has 32 in just 46 games this year).
Jonathan Toews: He has 13 helpers his last 10 games.
Henrik Zetterberg: 48 assists in 59 games is one off his career best mark.

Plus/Minus (+9): Michael Grabner. What did you expect from a guy who is scoring goals like the reincarnation of the Finnish Flash? It’s probably more shocking that Frans Nielsen, another Islander, is second with a +8 mark.

Shots on Goal (35): Michael Grabner. Phil Kessel is the only other player over 30 – he had 34 shots.

A few others worthy of note for their positive play the last two weeks.

David Backes, Blues (22g, 23a, +19, 81 PIM)
Over his last seven contests he has lit the lamp like Steve Stamkos with six goals, has been a plus/minus force (+5), and has rubbed a few faces with his gloves as well (19 PIMs). He’s one of the best point/PIM power-forward types in the game.

John Taveras, Islanders (23g, 28a, [-20], 39 PIM)
What’s the deal with the Isles of late? They actually resemble a real NHL team. Taveras, the young face of the franchise, has 13 points in his last eight games leaving him with 23 goals and 51 points, ever so slightly behind his marks of 24 and 54 from last season – though he reached those totals in 82 games (he’s suited up just 56 times this season).

ICE

Loui Eriksson, Stars (19g, 36a, +11, 6 PIM)
Eriksson is going to be hard pressed to match his totals of 36 and 29 goals the past two years  thanks to a recent stretch that has seen him score one goal in eight games and three in 24 games. He’s paid to score goals, and he just hasn’t delivered in 2011.

Simon Gagne, Lightning (9g, 10a, [-22], 14 PIM)
Gagne has been limited to 41 games because of injury, but with half a season of contests under his belt he would be on pace for an 82 game performance of 18 goals and a gnarly (-44) rating. Can it get much worse than that for this former 47 goal scorer who is a +121 for his career? He’s been invisible of late with only two assists in six games, and he hasn’t scored a goal in eight February games.

Erik Johnson, Avalanche (5g, 14a, [-9], 37 PIM)
That’s right, in the trade that shock keeper leaguers everywhere, Chris Stewart was sent from Colorado to St. Louis in exchange for potential #1 defensemen Erik Johnson (you can get an insider’s take on the deal in Erik Johnson and Jay McClement Colorado Bound).Perhaps the new environment, where he will likely be given top power-play unit duties, will allow Johnson to rediscover his offense as he has just two assists in his last 12 games.

Mikko Koivu, Wild (15g, 34a, +5, 36 PIM)
Reports are circulating that he could miss most of the regular season with a broken left index finger. Koivu is the Wild’s leading assist man who is one point behind Martin Havlat for the team lead in points, so it’s obvious that the club can ill afford an extended period of time without their most complete player.

Brad Richards, Stars (24g, 39a, +4, 24 PIM)
He is on the shelf with a concussion sustained on February 13th. The injury is considered to be of the minor variety, he’s expected to return to the ice shortly, but you never know with concussions. Richards is currently 8th in the NHL with 63 points and 11th with 215 shots on goal.

Keeper Corner

Craig Anderson, Senators (14-15-3, 3.17 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO)
The Sens made a bold moving trading for a keeper who will be a free agent at the end of the year (they sent under-performing Brian Elliott to the Av’s).

Anderson was a star last season for the Avalanche with 38 victories, a .917 save percentage and 2233 saves, the most in the NHL. This year he has struggled with injury and off ice concerns, and the results on the ice have been pretty dreadful.

So why did the Senators make the deal? The reasons are many.

(1) The net minding this season in Canada’s capitol has been awful. The Sens are 28th in the NHL in GAA (3.19) and save percentage (.895).

(2) Brian Elliott has played the majority of the games, he’s appeared 43 times, and his numbers are pitiful (3.19 GAA, .890 SV%). His career numbers are slightly better (2.81, .903), but their still rather uninspiring, so moving him to Colorado appears to have little long term risk.

(3) The Sens have Robin Lehner waiting in the wings. The 2009 2nd round pick has appeared in eight NHL games with disastrous results (3.53 GAA, .888 SV%), but most pundits  view him as a potential starting goalie. Still, he is just 19 years old and the team feels that more time in the minors would be beneficial to his long-term development.

(4) The club also has Pascal Leclaire in net. He should be healthy enough to return to backup duties behind Anderson by next week, he’s missed 25 games with a lower-body injury, at which time Lehner will head back to the AHL.

All of this means that if you are an Anderson owner there is no reason to panic. It appears that there is nothing in his way to playing the overwhelming majority of games with the Sens the rest of the way, and after his 47 save shutout in his first appearance with the club, perhaps there is some hope that he will more closely resemble the star he was last season versus the morning skate keeper he has been most of this season.

Looking Ahead

* One team plays five games this week: St. Louis.

* Ten teams play four games this week: Boston, Calgary, Colorado, Edmonton, Florida, Nashville, NY Islanders, Phoenix, Pittsburgh and Toronto.

* Zero teams play only two games this week.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD 2011: PART II

nolasco-throwing

Yesterday in K-BAD 2011: PART I I laid out the parameters of one of the experts leagues I’m participating in this year. In addition to giving the lay of the land, I also ran through my first 10 selections. Today, I’ll continue to run through my team focusing on picks 11-20.

Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

For a review of the whole draft see the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

Round 11-8: Juan Pierre, OF, White Sox
I went for the value pick, even though that wasn’t at all my plan. I didn’t really need the steals, but this choice should allow me to finish at, or near the top in the category barring injury. Maybe Pierre’s solid average in a ton of at-bats can also help to offset the poor marks of Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.

Round 12-5: Chad Billingsley, SP, Dodgers
I wanted to take Pablo Sandoval in the 10th and 11th rounds, and told myself I would take him here if he was still available. He was, but I went with the consistency of Chad Billingsley instead. You know I’m playing to win when I take a Dodger over a Giant.

Round 13-8: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
I already have two second base eligible players, but Zobrist can play OF so it’s not an issue. Kendrick fills my need for batting average help as well – something I need with Dunn/Reynolds (a situation I also tried to address with the selection of Pierre that I mentioned above).

Round 14-5: Carlos Lee, 1B/OF, Astros
Amazingly consistent with 11-straight years of 24 homers, 80 RBI, Lee’s multi position eligibility (OF/1B) led me to calling out his name even though I still need a catcher. Hopefully I’ll be able to address my backstop with my next selection.

Round 15-8: Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals
I considered taking a catcher in the 13th and 14th rounds before finally pulling the trigger. I’d have preferred Carlos Ruiz taken one pick before me, but Molina is a solid option and honestly, there is nothing more than a hair’s difference between the two this season.

Round 16-5: Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins
Everyone has gone closer crazy the last couple of rounds leaving this potential top-25 starting option on the board. If he could ever put everything together, he could be top-15 starter. You can read more about my thoughts on Nolasco in Hot Stove: Holliday Dealings.

Round 17-8: Joel Hanrahan, RP, Pirates
I don’t know if he will close or not (I think he will), but the arm is live and over his last 33 appearances he had a 13.50 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB. NOTE: It was announced two days after I  made this pick that Hanrahan would indeed open the year as the team’s closer. For more on why I thought Hanrahan was a great reliever to target make sure to read Radiant Relievers.

Round 18-5: Scott Baker, SP, Twins
I agonized over this pick, not because I don’t like Baker, but because of trying to figure out how I would fill out my catcher and shortstop position if I took him. It’s one of the problems with “slow drafts” – you have too much time to ponder your choices.

Round 19-8: Jason Bartlett, SS, Padres
I don’t love this pick, but I think Bartlett was the best SS left on the board and he’s the guy I’ve been targeting since I made the choice to pass on SS earlier. I’ve written this before, but I really don’t think, at the end of the day, that there will be much difference between Starlin Castro, who was taken in the 14th round in this draft, and Bartlett in terms of fantasy production in 2011.

Round 20-5: Leo Nunez, RP, Marlins
This is the type of guy you end up having to take a chance on when you don’t roster the top flight closers. I feel good enough about my offense to roster the risk. If he hadn’t struggled at the end of the year, he likely would have been taken at least five rounds earlier. After all, Nunez had a 9.83 K/9 mark, a 3.38 K/BB ratio and a strong 1.79 GB/FB ratio. If he repeats in those three categories this season, he should be able to rack up another 30 saves.

In Part III of this series I’ll review my final eight selections and give a few closing thoughts on the draft.


By Ray Flowers

K-BAD 2011: PART I

braun-autographs

I was fortunate to be invited back to KFFL’s Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft, K-BAD for short, for the second straight year. Last year, despite some injury and poor performance, I was able to grab third place in the league, a mere 0.5 points out of second place (you can see the team I drafted by visiting 2010 K-BAD: PART III. This year I am back to finish at the top of the heap.

In what follows you’ll see the players I chose for the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league, as well as being able to read my thoughts on why I chose the players that I did. For a full review of the entire league and what the other owners were thinking while they were making their selections (there are certainliy some big name participants in the draft), make sure you visit the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 1-8: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers.
Braun should be a top-5 selection in all drafts (I had him at #3 overall in The Top-25 for 2011), so I was exceedingly pleased to take him 8th overall. In each of his four seasons Braun has produced a 5×5 line of at least .285-25-97-91-14. Only four men reached those totals in 2010 – and those are Braun’s career worst totals.

Round 2-5: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies.
In my book Utley is still the top dog at second, ever so slightly ahead of Robinson Cano because of his steal potential (you can see my argument in Top-10 2B for 2011). Injured last season, Utley was still on pace for 22 homers, 88 RBI, 101 runs and 18 thefts if he had played 155 games.

Round 3-8: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates.
I didn’t think McCutchen would make it back to me next round, so I figured I might as well make a move now if I wanted to roster this luminous talent. The Pirates dampen his outlook somewhat, but Andrew is one of those players who can be a five category contributor with the potential to blow up in 2012.

Round 4-5: Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox.
I almost took the plunge on Ian Kinsler, but with Chase Utley already on board at second, I went for the mind numbing consistency of Dunn. I’ll take the 40 homers and 100 RBI that he will produce knowing he could push 50 dingers in his new home in Chicago.

Round 5-8: CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees.
I never go pitching this early in 12 team drafts, but I couldn’t pass up the value that Sabathia brings given this draft spot after 2-straight seasons of at least 19 wins, 197 Ks and a 1.19 WHIP. I’ll wait on outfielders and hopefully get one of my targets next round.

Round 6-5: B.J. Upton, OF, Rays .
Sweet. Upton was one of three outfielders I almost took in the fifth round, so taking Sabathia with my last pick didn’t hinder me in the least. Shane Victorino is a safer selection than Upton, but one of these days Upton is gonna to have a monster season. Will it be 2011?

Round 7-8: Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves.
I never take two SPs in my first seven choices – never – but when Martin Prado and Stephen Drew were taken right before me I went with Hanson. Not seeing any hitters who stuck out, I figured I’d take the top SP on my board and then head back to offense in the next couple of rounds.

Round 8-5: Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles.
I really wanted to take Ben Zobrist for the positional flexibility, but third base was getting thin fast. Plus, I already have a second sacker in Utley. I think there’s still talent at the seocnd base position, so I’ll wait to add up the middle strength until the next round.

Round 9-8: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays.
This draft is playing out exactly as I hoped. I took Mark Reynolds last round hoping to wait for my MI option, and the strategy worked to perfection as I grabbed Zobrist. I was tempted to take Howie Kendrick, but dual position eligibility swung my selection to Zobrist.

Round 10-5: Joakim Soria RP, Royals.
I really like having one closer I can count on, and Soria is an absolute beast. I also figured that my selection of a closer would cause others to target the bullpen hopefully letting others I covet to fall to me in the 11th round (Note: I was right as Neftali Felix, Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera were taken in the next six picks).

In PART II, I’ll continue my review of the squad.

By Ray Flowers