Anatomy of a Draft: Vegas Style
February 1st, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
This is the final piece of my three part series reviewing the FSTA Draft that was held in Las Vegas last week (ah, how the good times fade fast don’t they?).
Part I - I gave a review of the team I drafted in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA.
PART II - I discussed why I chose Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki in the first round in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo.
In PART III, thanks to the work of Jason Collette of Dock of the Rays, we have the answer as to who made the best selections in the FSTA Draft compared to the current ADP data (you can see the entirety of Jason’s work in the spreadsheet he put together of the draft). In what follows I’ll discuss some of the key selections that stood out, either players that I got on the cheap or guys I might have reached for according to ADP, and give my thoughts on why I made the decisions that I did.
Carl Crawford (taken 7th, ADP of 16): You can click in the link above for PART II to see why I think Crawford’s current ADP mark is way off.
Jimmy Rollins (taken 33, ADP of 42): The last of the elite shortstops on the board was my second choice with my third round pick with the first one being Ryan Howard (he was taken 32nd). For my thoughts on Rollins see Top-10 SS for 2011.
Brandon Phillips (59 taken , ADP of 35): A nice value given where he was drafted, and because he was the last of the top shelf second sackers left on the board. Coming off a “down” year he still scored 100 runs, hit 18 homers, stole 16 bags and batted .275. I’ll take a repeat of that while knowing that he went .276-20-98-78-25 in 2009.
Aramis Ramirez (taken 85, ADP of 104): Aramis is scaring some people off with his down 2010 effort that included a bunch of time on the shelf (he had just 465 at-bats). Would it surprise you to know that he still had 25 homers, the same total as Ryan Zimmerman and three more than Evan Longoria? Heck, his RBI total of 83 was only two less than Zimmerman and Mark Reynolds.
Dan Haren (taken 98, ADP of 52): The steal of the draft? I almost took Haren in the 6th round, then the 7th, before finally selecting him in the 8th. From 2008-10, Haren is only of only three hurlers to win at least 12 games, with an ERA under 3.95 and at least 200 Ks each season. The others are two pretty strong hurlers – Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.
Joakim Soria (taken 111, ADP of 78): Drafting at this point of the year is tricky, you don’t even know who the 9th inning arm will be for some clubs, and that was reflected in the draft as most of the experts waited on taking their first closer. I still remember being burned last year when I took Joe Nathan early “knowing” he was a lock for 35 saves. Hopefully this call works out better.
Aaron Hill (taken 124, ADP of 180): I needed power, so I’m not worried about having overshot Hill’s ADP by so much. With guys like Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts and Howie Kendrick the best options left on the board at second, and already having a roster loaded with speedy guys, I needed pop and Hill was the best option left to fill that need. After all, Hill is second at the second base position the last two years with 62 homers and third with 176 RBI.
Carlos Lee (taken 163, ADP of 132): A solid choice for two reasons. First, he also qualifies at first base giving me some depth behind Prince Fielder and another option as a corner infielder. Second, while his bat is slowing, Lee still hit 24 homers with 89 RBI last season. That makes it 11-straight years with 24 homers and at least 80 RBI.
James Shields (taken 189, ADP of 173): He might have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball last year. Shields went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA despite a career best K/9 mark of 8.28 and a superb K/BB ratio of 3.67. If things normalize he should be back on track and that means posting an ERA of about 4.00 with a 1.25 WHIP and about 175 Ks, a point I made, in depth, in Breaking Down: James Shields.
Scott Baker (taken 228, ADP of 183): He may never put it all together, but we’ve all have a crush on someone that doesn’t really make sense (I don’t even want to hear who some of you have fantasies about). Still, I can’t help but think if he ever put it all together that he could be a difference maker. If we take the best numbers of career and combine them we end up with 15 wins, a 3.45 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 162 Ks.
Carlos Zambrano (taken 241, ADP of 331): I guess no one is buying his unbelievable finish to 2010 (8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 Ks over 74 IP)? There are valid concerns about his workload and his absolutely bonkers personality, but the guy can still pitch when he’s healthy and motivated.
Ryan Madson (taken 280, ADP of 400): One of the best right-handed setup men in baseball. Madson is second in line to take over the 9th inning in Philadelphia, and you can argue that he is coming off his best season with career bests in K/9 (10.87), BB/9 (2.21), K/BB (4.92) and WHIP (1.04). Now if he can just avoid trying to beat things up when he is angry.
Nate McLouth (taken 293, ADP of 400): The man gets no respect. The Braves say he will open the year as the starter in CF, he is just 29 years old, and he went 26/23 in 2008 and 20/19 in 2009. You can hear more of my thoughts on McLouth in Around the Horn: January 21, 2011.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Aaron Hill, ADP, Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Phillips, Carl Crawford, Carlos Lee, Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Draft, FSTA, James Shields, Jimmy Rollins, Joakim Soria, Nate McLouth, Ryan Madson, Scott Baker, Vegas
By Paul on Feb 2, 2011
I take it that these ADP’s are from Mock Draft Central? I found in the past that their ADP’s are off base since a lot of people go there to play around doing practice drafts.
Didn’t notice it before but you have a very experienced club, doesn’t age and years of service concern you?
Why does this league draft so early?
By Ray Flowers on Feb 2, 2011
PAUL-
The league is drafted so early to give people an understanding of how people are being evaluated – it’s the first “experts” draft each year. It is very early though as you suggested.
Yes, numbers are from MDC.
I took the approach of—
1) I dont want to be the guy who tries to make a name for himself by taking CarGo #1, or Jason Heyward #12 to make a point. Each year people overdraft rookies trying to say ‘look at me, I was so smart.’ I picked a team that I can believe in because they shown me something in the bigs.
2) I went with a plan of buying guys who had down 2009 efforts. I wrote about it at the end of http://baseballguys.com/2011/01/27/vegas-baby-and-the-fsta/
I don’t think my team is too old. Ruiz and Molina are in prime, Fielder under 30, Phillips/Hill prime. Ditto Crawford, Span.
McCutchen, Maybin, Bernadina young.
You could consider Aramis Ram, Carlos Lee old, but they are still productive.
On the mound, gallardo, sanchez, wandy, baker, zambrano — all those guys are still young, and even Haren is only 30.
Think there is a nice balance there.
By Paul on Feb 3, 2011
Wrote age AND years or service, which can also lead to a decrease of production.
Phillips – 9 years
Ramirez- 13 years
Rollins- 9 years
Crawford- 9 years
Lee- 12 years
Zambrano- 10 years
Phillips, Ramirez, Rollins and Crawford was four of your top six picks. When players get into double digit years of service and/or the plus side of 30 production drops off.
Just thought there may be some concern there.
Guess not!
By dinordi on Feb 4, 2011
You’re right paul, none of those guys are capable of career years. They’ve got too much major league experience!
Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff laugh at “decreased production,” all the way to the bank.
I love Aramis Ramirez where he’s going and I’m sure a lot of folks will nab him early as you did Ray.
By Seth on Feb 5, 2011
Crawford’s ADP is absolutely insane. A case can be made for him as a top three pick. He has to be rated too low by MDC, thus skewing where people pick him.
By Craig Dowden on Feb 5, 2011
I’m a Chicago homer and not a big fan of Zambrano. Honestly, I don’t see him breaking double digit wins this year. His end of season stats did not support his strong finish and I would need to be picking him well AFTER his ADP before I’d even consider him on my staff.
By Ray Flowers on Feb 7, 2011
CRAIG-
Zambrano is certainly a risk, no doubt. He could win the cy young, he could be solid, he could be a disaster. All are possible.
Of course Z isn’t going to post a 1.58 ERA for the year, and he really needs to work on the walks, but his K-rate returned and he was almost as hard to hit as ever. I’ll take that package as my 6th SP.
By Paul on Feb 8, 2011
Dinordi-
First, I never said those players couldn’t have career years, I SAID age and years of service (which can lead to wear and tare) can lead to a decrease of production.
Outside of the power area a player goes through three stages in his career.
His prime which starts at 26-27 years old and ends at 30-31.
The second stage starts where the players first one ended at 30-31, which is when the players skills start to diminish, which lasts until 33-35 years of age.
In the third stage a players skills have diminish even more.
Studies have been done on this and holds true for all except during the power era.
However this doesn’t hold true for 100% of the players. Some players are in extreme shape (Moyer) and can play and produce at a high level for a longer time.
And as always, luck is involved.
Now that you named your two, my turn…
Alex Rodriguez- (AVE-OBP-SLG-OPS)
Career- .303 .387 .571 .958
2009- .286 .402 .532 .934
2010- .270 .341 .506 .847
Derrek Lee-
Career- .282 .367 .498 .865
2010- .260 .347 .428 .775
Lance Berkman-
Career- .296 .409 .545 .954
2009- .274 .399 .509 .908
2010- .248 .368 .413 .781
Chipper Jones-
Career- .306 .405 .536 .941
2009- .264 .388 .430 .818
2010- .265 .381 .426 .807
Manny Ramirez-
Career- .313 .411 .586 .997
2009- .290 .418 .531 .949
2010- .298 .409 .460 .869
Back to my original question to Ray-
Looking at his top six picks, which is 20% of his team representing his top players. I was wondering if he had concern of age or decrease of production. Thats all.
Dinordi, how do you not name Chris Carpenter or Tim Hudson over Huff?
By dinordi on Feb 8, 2011
I picked the first two hitters that popped into my head, seeing as how five of the six players you originally commented on aren’t pitchers.
Your examples(ages 35, 35, 35, 38, 38) don’t compare well to Ray’s players. None of his players are over 30 except Carlos Lee. Which btw is a great value, OF eligibility and he hit a career low .238 babip last year.
This is a redraft league, not a dynasty league. Brandon Phillips or Carl Crawford’s arms aren’t going to fall off midseason beacause the’ve played in the bigs for 9 years.
By Ben on Feb 9, 2011
Ray,
Hey what is your opinion of Peter Bourjos? I thought he was a little slappy guy but after looking at his minor league track record I think he can have a little pop. Just thinking of his boundaries maybe his upside can be 2010 Drew Stubbs with a little higher average or his downside 2010 Julio Borbon with a little less average. Speaking of Julio, I am a Borbon fan this year. Big time post sleeper.
By Paul on Feb 9, 2011
Those are their current ages.
A-Rods decline started in 2009 when his baseball age was 33.
D-Lee 34
Berkman 33
Chipper 36
Manny 36
I didn’t comment on pitchers originally because Ray didn’t draft many of them early.
As my original question for RAY was if he has any concern since four out of his six picks had some years behind them and/or time put in.
My intention was never to tare Ray’s team apart, in fact I am the owner or Phillips & Crawford so I only hope the best for them.
But to back my argument…
Aramis is 32 and showed a declined year last year.
Rollins 32 and showed a decline last year plus got his first major injury of his career on the plus side of 30.
Carlos Lee 34 and showed decline last year. There is a reason of Lee’s career low BABIP, a career low LD% of 15.6%, which also goes with his declining walk % and a career low ISO.
Will admit, Phillips and Crawford are bad examples but they fit into my argument well.
Although Phillips did show a career low LD% (15.3) & career high GB% (51.4%), I would expect Phillips to bounce back since his first 4 out of 9 years he barley played.
And Crawford has the most AB and games played in the field for a player on the minus side of 30.
Zambrano has logged lots of innings (over 1600)& pitch counts for a 29 year old. His career 4.0+ BB/9 sure doesn’t help those pitch counts.
The only 29 year old who has thrown more innings is CC Sabathia.
I’m not saying that these players stink and are worthless, just suggesting there is a case for being concerned, but I guess you could find a case for 75% of the players.
Paul