Opening Day 2011

Photo by Steve Paluch

After months of thinking about it…
After months of writing about it…
After months of talking about it…

Finally, it’s here.

Of course, the “it” is opening day, and I’m ecstatic that it has arrived.

No more ADP talk.

No more disagreements about whether to take Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira.

No more talk of when to draft a pitcher.

Now it’s all about the games and what happens on the field.

For those of you who love the pageantry of opening day, I thought I’d give you a photo of some beautiful ladies at their festive best.

For those of you who are still basking in the glove of the San Francisco Giants first World Championship I give you Nirvana.

For those of you looking for a bunch of links to articles about Tim Lincecum’s massive food intake, the top-300 players for 2011, Player Capsules for Hitters and which players could come out of nowhere to be fantasy stars in 2011 see Link o’ Rama.

With that I’m off to watch some baseball, do my radio show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, and get ready for what could be an epic matchup between the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and the Giants’ Tim Lincecum.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 31, 2011

I’m gonna switch it up a bit today in honor of the start of the 2011 season. Instead of going in depth on a couple of questions, I’m going to answer some quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

12 team 5×5 mixed league. Kila Ka’aihue or Mark Trumbo?
– @truesportsfan

No team scares the bejesus out of me more than the Royals who never, and I mean never, seem to have a consistent plan. Take the case of Alex Gordon. He’s been demoted to the minors, asked to switch positions, and basically marginalized by the team. He goes to spring training this year, tears it up at the dish, and now seems likely to open the year in the third hole in the batting order. That makes total sense to me.

Ka’aihue should have been playing full-time in Kansas City last year. With Eric Hosmer coming quickly, the Royals need to determine if they truly have something in Kila since both guys play first base (and don’t forget about Billy Butler who really should be a DH). Kila has 25-30 homer pop, and the young man knows the strike zone (last year he had 88 walks and 69 Ks at Triple-A). He has the exact kind of patient/power approach that teams crave at first base. His future appears to be pretty bright after a strong spring and the Royals finally deciding to commit to him as a full-time player.

Trumbo was a monster at Triple-A last year (.299-36-122), and has looked capable of providing a ton of power this season if we look at his spring training numbers (.297-6-20 with a .978 OPS in 25 games). At the same time, I worry about where he will play once Kendrys Morales returns to action (potentially by mid to late April). The issue is this – the Angels have one to many players for 1B/OF/DH. For those five spots they have six guys: Trumbo, Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos. The key to Trumbo’s playing time is likely Bourjos. If he hits enough to get on base and use his 40+ stolen base wheels he’ll be in the lineup everyday (I didn’t even mention his defense which some consider to be as good as any outfielder in baseball) leaving Trumbo without a consistent spot in the lineup.

If choosing between these two first basemen I’d take Kila.

People seem down on Ryan Franklin. Would you swap him for Joel Hanrahan or Drew Storen?
– @Cwhitney1

Far too many people seem reluctant to tab Hanrahan this year, and I just don’t get it. Just compare his numbers versus Franklin last season.

Hanrahan: 12.92 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 1.05 GB/FB
Franklin: 5.82 K/9, 4.20 K/BB, 1.15 GB/FB

Everything being equal, I’ll take the guy who strikes out twice as many guys and doesn’t rely on smoke and mirrors to get outs.

Storen has looked completely lost at times this spring, and the plan in Washington right now is to go with some sort of committee approach which could be led by Sean Burnett. Do yourself a favor and grab Hanrahan. It might now work out, but he is the hurler I’d take without question (for more on why that is see How to Evaluate Relievers).

With Brad Lidge out for a couple months who’s the safer pick – Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras?
– @tjaden_buster

Madson is by far the “safer” selection (see Radiant Relievers). However, apparently no one in the Phillies organization realizes that fact as he has constantly taken a backseat to Brad Lidge for 9th inning work in recent years. With the news about the shoulder injury with Lidge, one that could keep him out of action well into June,  that means Madson will finally be given the chance to close, right? Actually, no. It appears almost certain that the Phillies will call on Jose Contreras to take over closing duties. Contreras was dominant last year with more than a K per inning and an impressive 3.56 K/BB mark, but he is also “reportedly” 39 years old, had never posted a K/BB mark above 2.44 (albeit as a starter), and has four career saves. Contreras appears likely to have more early season value, but Madson is still the “safer” play based on his skill set.

Should I keep Justin Morneau at $18 in a 6×5 mixed. $260 budget? OPS is our 6th batting category.
– @frankdepino

I don’t have much faith in Morneau. He might go out and hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, but it’s a huge risk as he is still working his way back from a concussion. People seem to be thinking he is going to pick right up from last years level of production (.345-18-56 in 81 games), but I’m just not sold. First, he has a career .286 average and has only three seasons in his career over .275 if you include last season. Second, though his OPS was tremendous last year at 1.055, he’s only posted a mark over .880 one time in a full season (.934 in 2006). Third, and most obvious, is his health – will he be able to play everyday? Personally I wouldn’t have spent that much on Morneau, there’s just too much risk for me, but if he plays 145 games he’ll surely produce $18 worth of production.

Ryan Raburn is a better pick up than Logan Morrison?
– @mattextreme

Raburn is a player everyone seems really hot on right now. Do to popular demand, I wrote a piece about him entitled 2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn. Here’s a quick recap. He’s a great power option if he qualifies at second base, but as an outfielder he is merely a depth option. Regardless of where he qualifies, Raburn is still the choice between these two guys in my mind. Morrison could easily have the more productive big league career, but in terms of his fantasy value he is somewhat limited. He won’t steal many bases, he’s only swiped 23 over the past five years, and though he hit 24 homers at Single-A in 2007, he’s managed a mere 29 homers over his last 1,264 at-bats. His stroke is much more doubles oriented at the moment that one that will lift balls into the seats. His plate discipline is a strong suit, he could walk as many times as he strikes out which should allow him to produce an effective batting average, but without power or speed Morrison’s 5×5 value is somewhat limited.

What do you think of Tim Stauffer?
– @johndasher

Stauffer is one of those pitchers who somehow has moved up 35 spots on some people’s draft boards despite never having thrown a pitch in a regular season game. Hell, some people probably didn’t even know who he was two months ago. I’m not one of those guys as I was trumpeting him back in January in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer. Bottom line, there’s a lot to like with this Padres’ hurler.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn

Photo By Gradeki

On an almost daily basis I get an email from someone asking me about Ryan Raburn. Usually they read something like ‘this guy will hit 30 homers this year for sure if he gets 500 at-bats.’ Well, let’s take a look and see if (a) he is lined up for 500 at-bats, (b) if he ‘will’ hit 30 homers and (c) what his fantasy value is for the 2011 season.

PLAYING TIME

Ryan Raburn will start in left field for the Tigers. The team will go with Austin Jackson in center, and Magglio Ordonez in right on most day, and it appears that more often than not Victor Martinez will serve as the DH. The Tigers made the decision to send Scott Sizemore down and give the starting spot at second base to Will Rhymes until Carlos Guillen is back at full strength and ready to play every day (if that will ever happen no one knows). What all of that means is that Raburn had better keep hitting or he could start to lose some playing time, especially with Casper Wells and Brennan Boesch around to take away some at-bats in the outfield if need be. Even with all of that, Raburn appears set to make 140 starts in 2011, so in terms of playing time you’d have to give him the thumbs up after he’s appeared in 113 games each of the past two years.

A HOMER BINGE?

In his career, Raburn has hit 39 homers in 981 at-bats, or one every 25 at-bats. If he is able to keep that pace in the coming season he would need 750 at-bats to reach 30 homers. Clearly that isn’t going to happen. However, he has upped the homer ante a bit the past two years leading to 31 homers in 632 at-bats. Still, it’s pretty difficult to envision a scenario in which he blows past 600 at-bats this year, so that’s going to make his run to 30 homers this season a bit difficult. He does have a slightly elevated carer fly ball rate of about 43 percent (the big league average is about 38 percent), and a slightly better than average HR/F mark of 12.5 percent. Again, neither of those numbers screams out 30 homers. I hate projecting actual numbers, but if you pressed me I would say 25 homers are doable for this fella with full time work.

2011 FANTASY VALUE

If Raburn hits 25 homers and plays everyday, he is going to be a mixed league asset, right? As an outfielder he would kind of blend in with the rest because (a) he won’t steal many bases (14 in his career) and (b) because he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats his batting average could settle in right around his career mark of .274. However, if he qualifies as a second baseman in your league, than it’s bonanza time because a .270 hitting, 20 homer threat up the middle has a lot of value. Unfortunately, Jim Leyland must not play fantasy baseball as he allowed Raburn to play second base just 18 times last season, two short of the standard requirement of 20 games played for eligibility. Check your league rules on this as his fantasy value goes through the roof if he qualifies at second base (he could be a top-15 guy at second).

I’ve mentioned playing time in this piece, but I’ve only talked about the upside. You might have asked yourself ‘if Raburn is such a solid hitter, how is it that he has less than a thousand at-bats even though he has appeared in five big league seasons?’ One of the main reasons is that he is a vastly superior performer against left-handed pitching. It’s not that he is awful against righties (.278/.323/.430) but his slash line is certainly inferior to his work against lefties (.269/.346/.514). In fact, in 561 at-bats against righties in his career he has a mere 16 homers. That number can’t make you feel too good about his prospects of going deep 25+ times in 2011 can it? On top of that, the Tigers do have Brennan Boesch whom they’ll want to get some at-bats, and though he looked awful for long stretches last year he did murder left-handed pitching (.337/.403/.548). If Raburn struggles a bit, could he lose some of his starts against lefties to the power hitting youngster which could mean trouble since Raburn is also a better performer against southpaws?

Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Where Do Saves Come From?

On draft day every year, people seem to reach on closers. Not just that, they seem to often think that they have to get Mariano Rivera or Brian Wilson because they are on teams that win a lot of games. I mean, logic would seem to point to the fact that in order to roster a reliever with a prodigious save total he would have to pitch for a team that racked up a bushel of victories. However, does history bear this out as an accurate portrayal of what actually happens on the field?

In this study of relievers dating back to 2003, I will attempt to show that it isn’t a lead pipe cinch that you simply must have a closer from a top tier team to accrue strong save numbers. In fact, the data that follows would seem to suggest that you could do very well if you were smart about targeting the right arms, irrespective of the teams those hurlers pitch for.

To read the eight year study all you have to do is to click on the link to Where Do Saves Come From?

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Kevin Slowey

Photo from Library of Congress

Help me out here. If I were to stop you on the street and ask you which pitcher you would want on your fantasy squad in 2011, which would you chose (based on their career numbers)?

Pitcher A: 32-36, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.25 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
Pitcher B: 39-21, 4.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.86 K/9, 4.57 K/BB

Duh, you’d choose Pitcher B.

Which of the following two hurlers would you select based on their 2010 numbers?

Pitcher A: 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB, 1.70 K/BB
Pitcher B: 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.71 K/9, 4.00 K/BB

Duh, you’d choose Pitcher B again.

So tell me, why would the Twins choose Pitcher A (Nick Blackburn) over Pitcher B (Kevin Slowey) as their 5th starter this season? Flat out – it beats me. Of course, I also couldn’t solve the Riddle of the Sphinx either, so maybe I’m not the right one to ask (and yes, I know that the riddle likely doesn’t have anything to do with the Sphinx on the Giza Plateau, but I liked the picture).

Let me be as clear as I can – Blackburn is, at his best, a league average hurler. In fact, that is being kind. Here are his career numbers versus the league average during his career.

Blackburn: 32-36, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.25 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
AL Avg: 33-32, 4.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.78 K/9, 2.04 K/BB

See what I’m saying?

Clearly Slowey is a better performer in ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, winning percentage – I could go on but why belabor the point. Let’s just say that the Twins are making an odd choice.

As for Slowey, how does he compare when we venture from placing him side-by-side with a slacker like Blackburn? Very well actually.

Slowey’s career K/9 mark is a tenth better than the AL average the past four years while his walk rate is well better than anything most pitchers could ever accomplish as his ability to throw strikes is virtually unparalleled. Slowey has walked an average of 1.50 batters per nine innings in his career for a total of 79 walks in his career. To compare, C.J. Wilson walked 93 batters last season. Moreover, amongst pitchers who have thrown 470 or more innings since 2007, Slowey is the second best pitcher in baseball at limiting walks behind only the great Roy Halladay (1.42). That impressive ability to throw strikes for Slowey has enabled him to post the third best K/BB ratio since 2007 at 4.57, just slightly behind Halladay (5.08) and Cliff Lee (4.60). That’s it, in all of baseball. So again, why in the hell is Slowey being sent to the bullpen in favor of Blackburn?

Now I’m not going to write this article totally pro-Slowey, I have to be honest about his faults too. There are three major issues with him.

(1) He has been unable to take the ball every five days (at least Blackburn can do that). Slowey has thrown 160.1, 90.2 and 155.2 innings the past three seasons. I’d like to think its just been bad luck, and maybe it has been, but he is no Matt Cain. At the same time he isn’t quite Erik Bedard either.

(2) He allows far too many fly balls. In his career his fly ball rate sites at 48.1 percent, and last season that number was even higher at 50.6 percent leading to an absolutely horrible 0.56 GB/FB rate.

(3) As a result of the fly balls, you guessed it, he has allowed far too many homers in his career. The big league average is about 1.0 per nine innings. Slowey has never posted a total below his 1.21 mark of last season and owns a career rate of 1.41 per nine. That’s awful.

On the plus side, Slowey has allowed a rather normal 10.0 percent homer to fly ball ratio in his career. The problem has been all those fly balls. So, theoretically, if he could just cut down on the fly balls a bit, his HR/9 mark could fall back to an “average” level. One way this might happen could be from a helping hand from his ball park. Target Field in Minnesota was the hardest park to go deep in during the 2010 season in the American League according to Park Indices. It would seem that Slowey is now in a great park given his skill set, and what do you know, his numbers at home were strong last season (8-4, 3.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.17 HR/9), so of course the Twins… oh never mind.

At this point it looks like Slowey will need an injury, or trade out of Minnesota, to become a mixed league option in 2011. As such, he is nothing more than a late round gamble since he could conceivably end up making 50 appearances out of the bullpen this year. The good news is that there must be a few intelligent GM’s out there who are aware of the data I’ve relayed here, so even if one of them isn’t in Minnesota, hopefully one of his compadres will make a deal for Slowey to let him do his thing every five days out of the starting rotation.

By Ray Flowers

Crashing The Net: March.28

Photo by Tiffa Day

Crashing the Net takes you around the league touching on hot and cold players, battles for ice-time and what’s going on in net.

FIRE

Simon Gagne, Lightning
Always injured, Gagne was always an offensive force when on the ice, that is until this season. Oh he’s been injured again, he’s appeared in just 56 games, but until lately he was producing like a third line winger whose main job was shutting down the other teams top line. Finally producing points with some regularity, Gagne has scored four times in his last two games and six times in his last six contests. Toss in four assists in that time and he’s finally rounding into form as the playoffs approach.

Patrick Marleau, Sharks
Just a short while ago Marleau was having a very poor season. The numbers are still down from what he accomplished the last two years, but he has been on a feeding frenzy for the Sharks of late. Marleau has 11 goals in his last 15 games including six in his last five games to push his season total up to 33. Moreover, in his last 12 contests he has recorded 17 points for the surging Sharks. If you weathered the storm of his uneven early season play you’ve reached safe harbor in solid shape with Patrick.

Corey Perry, Ducks
Hello NHL goal scoring leader. Here are the staggering numbers Perry has posted of late: thirteen goals, five multi goal games, and four game winning goals in a meager nine games. Perry also leads the NHL with 20 third period goals, has tied a franchise record with 10 game winning goals and has also equaled the club record for tallies in a month with 13. Moreover, if you look at the totality of his game he could be the fantasy MVP this season: 44g, 41a, 100 PIMs, 254 shots on goals and 25 power-play points. What a season for the right wing who has increased his point total each of the last five seasons.

Blake Wheeler, Thrashers
As a Bruin this season be averaged 0.47 points per game, but that rate has gone up significantly since he pulled on the Thrashers’ sweater. In 16 games in his new home Blake has recorded 13 points, a rate of 0.81 points per game, as he has lit the lamp five times while dishing out eight assists. He’s also drastically pushed his shot rate up from 1.74 per context in Boston to 3.44 per game with the Thrashers. He’ll attempt to finish strong this season to assure himself a top-6 role with Atlanta next season.

ICE

David Booth, Panthers
Booth scored 31 times in 2008, but injuries limited him to just 28 games last year. This season has been one filled with health, he’s appeared in all 76 Panthers’ games, but he has just 21 goals an a pitiful (-24) mark. Recently he has gone four games without a point, has gone seven games without a goal and has only one assist in nine games.

Drew Doughty, Kings
He just never really got going this year. Oh he has 11 goals and a +14 rating, solid totals to be sure, but after a 16 goal, 59 point season in his second campaign more was expected  of him this season. His production has really slowed the past little while as he has but one goal 13 games and just one helper in his last seven contests. There’s always next year.

Patrik Elias, Devils
Have the Devils run out of steam in their mad push to make the playoffs after a horrendous start to the year? Elias seems to have hit a wall of some kind as he has five games without a point. The Devils’ long time leader also has a mere three goals in 27 games. Sprinkle in a (-7) rating in the month of March and you have a veteran who is limping to the finish line.

Steven Stamkos, Lightning
He is second in the NHL with 43 goals and fourth with 86 points, but the scoring phenom has gone cold of late with just two goals in 15 games. Even worse, he’s stopped handing out helpers too having played 5-straight without being on the score sheet. Obviously it’s only a matter of time before the points come, but this slump comes at a terrible time – the fantasy hockey playoffs.

MOVIN’ ON UP

Troy Brouwer, Blackhawks
Welcome to Nirvana Mr. Brouwer. After going 17-straight games without a goal, Brouwer will get a chance to end that drought on Monday as he’ll be placed on the Blackhawks’ top line alongside Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews who is working on a rather amazing run of 11 goals in 15 games and 23 assists in 25 games. Brouwer will need a big final push to reach 20-goals for the second straight year – he currently has 17.

Oscar Moller, Kings
With Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams on the shelf for the rest of the season, the Kings nee someone to skate on the top scoring line, so they are going with a trio of Michael Handzus along with Dustin Penner and Moller. A talented skater who had 50 points in 59 games in the AHL this season, Moller has a mere 12 goals and 14 assists in 80 games in his young NHL career, but with first line minutes will come the chance for him to improve upon those lackluster scoring rates.

KEEPER CORNER

Ray Emery, Ducks
Jonas Hiller (vertigo) is back, but in his first action in over a month he lasted only 12 minutes before surrendering three goals. The team says that Hiller didn’t suffer any setbacks, perhaps it was just rust, but it’s unclear how much he will play down the stretch since Ray Emery is playing so well. Eleven months after having bone-graft surgery in his hip, Emery is back in the NHL and thriving for a Ducks team that is desperately trying to make the playoffs. Emery has been spectacular in his five appearances with a 4-0 record, a GAA of 1.39 and a save percentage of .952. Again, there is uncertainty about who will be in net for the club, but one thing is for sure, Emery is performing at an elite level right now.

Braden Holtby, Capitals
Holtby is the third goalie with the Caps, so it’s understandable that he would shuttle between the AHL and the NHL. However, I have a hard time understanding their use of him of late. Holtby was called up to fill in when Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth were less than 100 percent on the weekend, and all Holtby did was post a shutout. His reward? He was sent beck to the minors on Monday. I’m sorry, but when you have won 6-straight appearances and have a GAA of 1.01 in your last nine outings you simply must be on the ice for every game – period. Odd to say the least that he isn’t in net for the Caps don’t you agree?

Joey MacDonald, Ducks
Jimmy Howard has 34 wins, tied for second in the league, but his ratios are poor by current standards (2.77 GAA, .904 SV%). Still, a “W” is a “W”, and that’s why he has value in the fantasy game. However, he recently injured his shoulder, and though an MRI showed nothing significantly wrong, it is possible that he could miss a week of action (he thinks he might be able to return by the middle of the week). With Chris Osgood still dealing with groin issues, MacDonald figures to start until Howard returns. Given that Joey has a 2.05 GAA and .928 save percentage in 13 appearances this year, and that he hasn’t allowed a goal in his last three appearances, the Wings should be fine.

Looking Ahead

* Twelve teams play four games this week: Anaheim, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

* Two teams plays only two games this week: Phoenix and an Jose

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Sirius XM Experts League Draft

Left to Right: Matt Deutsch, Ray Flowers, Kay Adams, Kyle Elfrink, Rob Touzet

If you didn’t get a chance to hear the draft live on Thursday at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, or even if you did but wanted to delve a bit deeper into things, this is a piece for you. Today, I’ll break down the 14 person, mixed league, 5×5 draft of the hosts from SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM147, Sirius211) by focusing on the squad I assembled (at the end of the piece there is a link to a PDF file that shows how each of the 14 teams chose to put their teams together).

LEAGUE RULES

14 teams, 5×5, 23 starters, six bench spots
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitchers: Any combination of nine hurlers
Free Agency: FAAB Budget

MY CLUB

I had the 11th pick in the snake draft (number in parenthesis is round the player was taken).

C: Kurt Suzuki (9), Chris Snyder (28)
1B: Billy Butler (6)
2B: Robinson Cano (1)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (2)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (4)
MI: Howie Kendrick (10)
CI: Chase Headley (19)
OF: Shane Victorino (5), Ben Zobrist (7), Nick Markakis (8), Carlos Quentin (13), Nate McLouth (18)
UT: Mike Morse (21)

PITCHERS: Tim Lincecum (3), Wandy Rodriguez (11), Matt Thornton (12), James Shields (14), Josh Beckett (15), Joel Hanrahan (16), Scott Baker (17), Evan Meek (20), Ryan Madson (23)

BENCH: Yunel Escobar (22), Erick Bedard (24), Daric Barton (25), Josh Willingham (26), Jason Motte (27), Takashi Saito (29)

TEAM REVIEW

* I’ve never done a draft this year in which I took Cano, Zimmerman or Lincecum – and I’ve done like 25 totals drafts if you include all the mocks I’ve been a part of. So why did I take all three here? Because they were the best players on the board. I grabbed the best 2B in the game, a position further cemented by the injury to Utley, and it’s not like I’m sold on Rickie Weeks or Ian Kinsler staying healthy. I nearly passed on Zimmerman to take Fielder or Kemp, and in retrospect maybe I should have, but Zimmerman should be a strong option at third as you all know. As for Lincecum, what can I say, I went against my “never draft a pitcher early” strategy. Why? Two points.

1- It was a great value pick. Lincecum has an ADP of about 23 and I took him at pick #39. Had to jump at that value.

2- In retrospect it was a great value play, but I still shouldn’t have done it. Look at Kay Adams‘ team. She grabbed Jon Lester in the 5th and Dan Haren in the 6th showing there simply is no reason to reach on a hurler early.

* For some reason, the league went bonkers on catchers. By the end of the fifth round there were seven taken amongst the first 98 selections. According to ADP numbers the seventh catcher shouldn’t have been taken until around the 120th pick. Regardless of ADP, I think some of the participants panicked a but since we start two catchers in this league. Why did I take suck ass Chris Snyder as my backup catcher? I considered Ryan Hanigan, but I needed the power of Snyder. Hopefully he’ll pop 20 homers like John Buck did last year.

* Speaking of power, my team could be a bit short there. If Carlos Quentin stays healthy and hits 30 homers I’ll feel much better about the club. I also grabbed McLouth and Morse later in the draft, and I think the duo could easily hit 40 homers.

* I figured I could afford Quentin and Snyder and their potential batting average drag on my club by taking guys like Cano, Billy Butler and Howie Kendrick earlier on.

* I love Kendrick, and have no issue with taking him in the 10th round. However, it may not have been the best move because I already had Ben Zobrist who could move to second or MI from the outfield if I needed depth there (I ended up taking three players who qualified at 2B – Cano, Kendrick, Zobrist). Still, I think Kendrick could hit .300 with 15 homers and 15 steals, and that’s money at the MI spot.

* Though I took The Freak in the third round, at least I showed some patience after that and waited to take my next pitcher until round 11. Then I went nuts. From 11-17, a span of seven picks, I went all pitchers except for Quentin in the 13th. I’m either going to be right, or dead wrong about my pitchers as I took “my guys” in the middle rounds.

James Shields, Josh Beckett, Scott Baker and Wandy Rodriguez
I went bonkers late and took Erik Bedard. Feel free to cast aspersions at me.

* In the pen, there may have never been assembled a better group of arms: Thornton, Hanrahan, Meek, Madson, Motte and Saito. Will that group give me a ton of saves? Maybe (I tried to cover myself a bit by taking both Pirates’ arms). But even if they don’t rack up the saves they are going to give me dynamite ratios and a wonderful K/9 mark if they stay healthy.

* In short, my power is a bit light, and I won’t lead the stolen base category either, but I like the overall strength of the offense. On the hill, saves are a wild card, but I’m fully confident that I will finish near the top of the ratio categories if my guys stay healthy and perform as expected.

Tired of hearing me ramble on about my team?

Here’s the link to the PDF file for the SiriusXM-ExpertsLeague.

Living the Fantasy League

In what follows I will discuss the 12 teams that were entered into the Sirius XM Living the Fantasy 2011 draft. I will highlight each teams best selection, and their worst, and then give a brief statement on something that stood out about the squad. At the end of my the comments there will be a link to a PDF file that will have the entire draft broken down by team.

CZARS
Best Pick: C.J. Wilson (217th overall)
Worst Pick: Brian Roberts (120th overall)
Comment: Punted catchers taking Ryan Hanigan and Alex Avila with last two picks.

KYLE ELFRINK
Best Pick: Tim Stauffer (287th)
Worst Pick: Michael Cuddyer (122nd)
Comment: He must have spent a lot of time studying at BBGuys – McCutchen, Rios, Chris Young, Hill, Stephen Drew, Headley, Danks, Stauffer.

LIVING SOUTHERN COMFORT
Best Pick: Jonathan Niese (286th)
Worst Pick: Jorge Posada (123rd)
Comment: Took a lot of chances late on Texas players – Ogando, Holland and Smoak (old Rangers’ farmhand and part-time 1B last year).

ROCKSTARS
Best Pick: Mike Morse (285th)
Worst Pick: Clay Buchholz (124th)
Comment: Took two injured closers (Brian Wilson, Andrew Bailey), but got three nice power arms late (Venters, Madson, Gregerson).

BEANS & CONRBREAD
Best Pick: Erik Bedard (308th)
Worst Pick: Erik Bedard (308th)
Comment: Sorry, couldn’t resist.

PRODUCER DREW
Best Pick: Placido Polanco (283rd)
Worst Pick: Carlos Santana (67th)
Comment: Took two pitchers in first three picks (Halladay, King Felix) but then, oddly, took a risk at first with Morneau in 5th round.

RAY FLOWERS
Best Pick: Scott Baker (258th)
Worst Pick: Adam LaRoche (162nd)
Comment: Went reliever crazy late with four of last five picks netting Meek, Capps, Uehara and Romo.

B. DOUG IS A MAN
Best Pick: Jordan Zimmerman (209th)
Worst Pick: Miguel Montero (104th)
Comment: Can’t figure out why anyone would take three catchers in first nine rounds, and don’t blame the autopick.

BIG STICKS
Best Pick: Madison Bumgarner (208th)
Worst Pick: Mariano Rivera (88th)
Comment: Marmol and Rivera in the first eight rounds caused issues in the outfield.

LUMBERJACKS
Best Pick: Carl Pavano (322nd)
Worst Pick:Michael Young (63rd)
Comment: Took chances on a bunch of guys looking for bounce backs – Lind, Figgins, Ordonez and Berkman.

KAY ADAMS
Best Pick: Cameron Maybin (323nd)
Worst Pick: Kendrys Morales (86th)
Comment: Took a chance late on talented but injury prone guys – Hardy, Chipper and Peavy.

VANCE McCULLOUGH
Best Pick: Aaron Harang (325th)
Worst Pick: Corey Hart (85th)
Comment: Went with Wright, Arod in first two rounds waiting until 10th round to take a first baseman (Aubrey Huff).

For those of you interested in the results of the draft, click on the link to LivingtheFantasyLg-Rosters for every pick made in the 12-team draft.

MLB Mailbag: March 23, 2011

Photo By Jon Dawson

Are you seriously trying to tell people that James Shields is a better option this year than Matt Cain or Matt Garza?
– Jimmy, San Antonio, Texas

I certainly like to get in trouble at times don’t I?

I’m sure this question comes from my recently published top-100 list for starting pitchers in which I had James Shields at #24, Matt Cain at #27 and Matt Garza at #36. On the surface those rankings do look bonkers, after all Shields posted an ERA over five last year, but here is my reasoning.

With Cain, his arm hiccup in spring makes me a tad nervous (without it I would have had him ahead of Shields). From 2006-10 Cain was one of nine hurlers who tossed at least 190-innings each season. Have all the innings finally started to catch up with him? Provided they haven’t, you know exactly what to expect from Cain as his performance has certainly been rock solid. At the same time, he’s only had one season with more than 13 wins and has only one season of 180 Ks. If his new level of performance mirrors his work the last two years (3.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) then he will be the hurler to own out of this threesome if he can avoid injury, there is little doubt about that.

Garza is another one of those rock solid hurlers who’s performance has remained remarkably stable the past three years, just look at his ERA (3.70, 3.95 and 3.91) and WHIP (1.24, 1.26 and 1.25) in that time. The immediate reaction is to think that those numbers will improve in 2011 now that he is out of the AL East and pitching in the National League. Not so fast. A fly ball hurler who has seen his FB-rate increase in each of the past four years (up to 45 percent last year), Garza gives up a wee bit too many fly balls for my comfort for a guy who will pitch half his games in Wrigley Field, the 5th best park in the NL in terms of homers in 2010 according to Park Indices (the last three years the park ranks 4th). Does the ballpark factor alone mean that the advantage he will gain moving to the NL could be wiped out by where he will pitch his home games?

Shields lost 15 games, had a 5.18 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP last season, all terrible numbers. So how in the world can I put him in the same breath as the others? Hear me out.

First, Shields was terribly unlucky last year. Despite a line drive rate that was only one percent above his career level, his BABIP rose by nearly .035 points. That doesn’t make sense on the surface, and the contention that he was “unlucky” is buttressed by his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 4.24, nearly a full run below his actual ERA (5.18). In addition, though his GB/FB ratio was the same as always at 1.08 (career 1.15), he allowed a terribly high 1.50 homers per nine inning (career 1.22) thanks to a career worst HR/F rate of 13.8 percent. Have you ever heard of a ‘perfect storm?’ Second, his K/9 rate last year was a carer best (8.28), about a batter above his career level (7.38). Third, his K/BB ratio of 3.67 was only 0.03 off his career mark. It was also the 10th best mark in baseball. It might also surprise you that Shields led this trio in K/9 and K/BB. Shields also posted a better FIP (4.24) than Garza (4.42), and though his mark trailed Cain (3.65) it was nowhere near the two run difference in their actual ERA (5.18 to 3.14).

If Cain is healthy he’s likely to be the top dog out of this trio, but that doesn’t mean he will be the best  investment. Based upon draft day cost Shields should easily be the most effective use of your resources given that he will come at a discount in most leagues because of his “down” 2010 performance.

I’ve been hearing a lot of good things about Todd Helton. I’m in a 13-team NL-only league and I was able to grab him for $5 on draft day. Was that a worthy investment on my part?
– Nick, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

So far this spring Helton has looked strong hitting .355 with a .916 OPS in 31 at-bats. Of course, we’re talking about 31 at-bats. Plus, Helton is 37 years old and coming off the worst season of his career (.256-8-37 with a .728 OPS in 398 at-bats), so anything positive would likely be an improvement at this point.

Jim Tracy came out earlier this week and said that the plan is for the club to rest Helton liberally over the course of the season to keep him in shape (essentially to keep his back strong). The club also brought in Ty Wigginton this offseason to give them some depth at first if need be in case Helton resembles the player who failed to hit .270 or reach 400 at-bats in two of the past three seasons. At the same time Helton is just one year removed from a .325-15-86 line, and he can still get on  base (his .362 OBP last year was a career worst and the first time his OBP had been under .390 since 1998). Helton is no longer a threat to hit 20 homers or to win a batting title, but if used properly he can still be an effective offensive weapon given his ability to get on base. Does that translate into fantasy value in 5×5 leagues? Not really. Personally I have a soft spot for Helton so I have no issue with a $5 bid. If he craps out you haven’t wasted too much dough, and if everything breaks right he could double your investment, though the odds are against that actually happening.

Tell me why I shouldn’t expect Starlin Castro to go 20/20 this season? I’m loving this kid.
– Jim, Fremont, California

Sample size people.

Castro has blown up this spring hitting .383 with four homers and a .702 SLG in just 47 at-bats. Point #1 – it’s 47 at-bats. Point #2 – it’s spring training. Point #3 – we are talking about four swings.

I don’t doubt that Castro could evolve into a 20 homer hitter, after all the guy turns 21 years old tomorrow, but expecting him to reach those heights this summer because of a good month of hitting seems foolish. Castro hit three homers last year in 463 at-bats with the Cubs, and since he turned pro he has gone deep 10 times in 1,237 at-bats. Do you trust 1,237 at-bats or 47 in terms of their predictive power? I’ll tell you this. If Castro hits 51 percent of his balls on the ground this season to match the mark he posted in 2010, he will have no shot at 20 homers, 15 will be hard to attain, and the ceiling might be 10. Perhaps he’s dialed in a more powerful stroke this spring, but I still find it hard to believe that he will be able to double the homer production he has offered in three years in professional baseball in half as many at-bats in 2011.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can also be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

SWIP III: Relief Pitchers

Photo by Jon Konrath

By now you know the drill with SWIP, right? I mean you have been coming to the site everyday to read my work haven’t you? Well, in case you haven’t been studious and are wondering what SWIP actually is, you can cick on the like to SWIP- Measuring a Pitcher’s Dominance.

Here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

The 2010 ML average for SWIP was 0.43.

PART II of SWIP discussed starting pitchers.

Today I’ll break down the men who toss pitches out of the bullpen.

SWIP-2010-BBGuys-40-90

.90 and Up: An excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  Nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days could be numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

1.30 – Rafael Betancourt
I’ve already expounded on the greatness that is Betancourt in in his 2011 Player Profile.

1.18 – Billy Wagner
If only he hadn’t retired.

1.14 – Koji Uehara
His competition for saves in Baltimore, Kevin Gregg, was way down the list at 0.47, just slightly above league average. The key for Koji is can he stay healthy?

1.11 – Carlos Marmol
When you strike out an all-time record 15.99 per nine innings (see: The Strikeout – Relievers), even if you walk nearly everyone else you’re still going to be a SWIP dominator.

1.06 – Joel Hanrahan, Joaquin Benoit
Hanrahan was named the closer for the Pirates over Evan Meek. It was the right call. Benoit was amazing last year leading all pitchers who threw 60-innings with a 0.68 WHIP.

1.01 – Matt Thornton
He should have been the White Sox closer last year. The last three years, amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings, Thornton 1st in base runners per nine, 5th  in ERA, 2nd in H/9 and 3rd in K/9 in  baseball

0.96 – Takashi Saito, Ryan Madson
Both of these setup men had a better SWIP than the men who take the ball in the 9th inning after them – Jonathan Axford (0.84) Brad Lidge (0.61).

0.90 – Brian Wilson, Sergei Romo
If Wilson does indeed miss some time with his strained oblique the Giants may not miss him too much if Romo’s slider is breaking.

0.82 – Matt Belisle, Bobby Jenks
Last year Belisle came out of nowhere for a guy who owns a 0.49 SWIP mark for his career. As for Jenks, despite “struggling” last year according to many people he still posted a better SWIP than Jonathan Papelbon (0.72) and Daniel Bard (0.62).

0.78 – Tyler Clippard
He’s struggled in camp this year, though so has Drew Storen. Perhaps Clippard will get some looks in the 9th this year for the Nats?

0.72 – Jonathan Broxton
Admittedly he struggled big time last year, but he still posted a better mark than Rafael Soriano (0.69) and the same mark as Huston Street and Papelbon.

0.57 – Mariano Rivera
The greatest closer in AL history is still money, but his declining K-rate will start to eat into his effectiveness.

0.52 – Chris Perez
You shouldn’t have a barley better than league average SWIP when your K/9 mark is 8.71.

0.49 – Jose Valverde
His 9.00 K/9 mark was a career worst and the fourth straight season of decline in that category.

0.37 – Brandon League
He’ll close for the Mariners with David Aardsma on the shelf. His SWIP mark is poor, but he offsets that with a dynamite ground ball rate (62.8 percent).

0.32 – Francisco Cordero
His 7.31 K/9 was more than a batter and a half below his career 9.09 mark.

0.29 – Brandon Lyon
Doesn’t get strikeouts, and really is a league average pitcher in many respects.

0.26 – Fernando Rodney
Angels know they have a lit fuse here (his BB/9 mark is 4.64 for his career). The question is – when will it burn out?

Photo by Jon Konrath