Top-100 Starting Pitchers
March 10th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.
Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.
TOP-100 STARTERS
1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe
* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.
* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.
* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).
* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).
* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).
* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.
* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.
* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.
Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?
Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.
Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.
Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: A.J. Burnett, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Carl Pavano, Clay Buchholz, Derek Lowe, Gio Gonzalez, Homer Bailey, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Hellickson, Jhouyls Chacin, Kyle Drabek, Mark Buehrle, Michael Pineda, Roy Halladay, Tim Stauffer, Top-100 Pitchers, Top-100 Starting Pitchers, Wade Davis
By Paul on Mar 12, 2011
Its almost impossible to rank SP outside the top 5-10…lol
That would be a interesting contest idea.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2011
Paul-
ranking players per position isn’t awful, but when you try to do something like a top-300 —- then you get in big trouble.
By Nate on Mar 13, 2011
Considering Peavy is having a strong spring in terms of rehabbing from shoulder surgery, would you bump him up your top 100 SP list at all?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2011
Nate – I could see moving Peavy into the top-100 sure. Still, he is coming back from a surgery no one has ever come back from, and is always an injury risk. A handful of good starts in spring doesn’t change the landscape, though he is clearly moving in the right direction. He’s still a big risk.
By Nate on Mar 13, 2011
Any word on Peavy’s velocity?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2011
He hit 91 mph in last outing.
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=6201837
By ron h on Mar 15, 2011
Ray-
The pool I am in is for wins only. Can you give me your top 20 pitchers?
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2011
Ron-
Wins are impossible to predict. There is simply no way to know (just look at how good King Felix was last year as he struggled for wins or how average Jon Lackey was yet he had more wins.
Look for pitchers on good teams, and ones that throw a lot of innings. That’s about the best advice I can give.
By David on Mar 16, 2011
Ray, you’re stuff is awesome. How often do you (or will you) update your rankings? And what about the A’s closer situation? As an Angels fan, please tell me its Fuentes…but as a fantasy player, please tell me its Wuertz or Breslow…or anybody besides Fuentes.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2011
David-
I dont plan on updating the lists – we only have 2 more weeks until opening day.
I will be writing articles each day of course, but the rankings are pretty much what they are right now.
At this point, it would be Fuentes with some support from Balfour if I had to guess. Wuertz and Breslow have had some health concerns this spring, but team views them more as setup guys anyway.
By ryan on Mar 19, 2011
I love your rank of Cole Hamels at 11 at pitcher. I honestly think Cole will make a run at the NL cy young award this year. A number 1 starter, pitching against number 4′s the whole season…it just seems to good to be true for cole this year..in my own opinion
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2011
Remember-
just cause a guy is #4 in a rotation does not mean he will be facing other team’s #4′s all year. There are days off, rain delays, injuries, jostling rotations to get guys an extra day of rest here and there etc., so there is really no way to know who a guy will be facing once the season gets rolling.
By Nate on Mar 20, 2011
Ray-
I realize you have ranked Ricky Romero above Jordan Zimmerman by quite a few spots. I also realize you have Zimmerman bolded as a target option. My rotation is as follows Felix, Haren, J. Weaver, D. Hudson…I want to add Romero but have concerns about the AL east, and his rough spring. I like Zimmerman a lot but trust your opinion. Would you still suggest rounding out my rotation with Romero? Or Zimmerman? Thanks!!
By terry farrell on Mar 23, 2011
Ray,
Bud Norris or James Shields?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 23, 2011
James Shields – a better pitcher at this point, way better. Also locked into the rotation, a little less certain with Norris. Bud has a great arm, but Shields is a better pitcher. See – http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/23/mlb-mailbag-march-23-2011/
By Jeffster on Mar 23, 2011
Ray:
Love your analysis on the Drive; a couple of Top 300 questions:
1) Why no Romero? His CBS Sports ADP is around 180
2) What is your thesis on Kendrick? Your 68 ranking is significantly higher than the ADPs that I have seen.
Not disputing your rankings, as I respect your analysis. Just looking for some details heading into my Friday mixed league draft.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 23, 2011
Romero was a miss on my part. Should have him slotted about 130. Will adjust now
Kendrick – http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/11/top-300-for-2011/#comments
See comments at the bottom.
By terry on Mar 24, 2011
Ray- I drafted Chris Johnson as my 3B but in later rounds Neil Walker was also available so I took him too. I have Cano as my starting 2b. Who’s a better option at 3B, walker or Johnson?
Thanks- Terry
By Ray Flowers on Mar 24, 2011
Terry-
Neither?
Honestly, even if you’re in a 15 team league, I dont think either should really be a starter at 3B. CI option sure, but not a starter at 3B.
Johnson should go if you need pop, Walker if you are looking for average.
By Mike on Mar 27, 2011
Love your work, Ray. I listen to on XM every day.
Where does Beachy fit in now? At #99 in place of Minor?
In a 20-team, H2H-Points Dynasty League, $70 team cap, (all salaries increase $1/year), would you trade a Beachy $1 for Bud Norris $3?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2011
Beachy was good last year in the minors, and looked good this spring. I still like Minor, he’ll have role at some point this season. Beachy is still a depth guy though. I wouldn’t reach on him just cause he is in the rotation, but in a 20 teamer, lots of interest. Still, keep Norris. I love that guys arm, its huge, and we say him with a top-10 K/9 mark last year amongst hurlers over 100 IP.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/02/15/the-strikeout-starters/
By James on Mar 27, 2011
Hey neighbor and fellow Giants fan,
I am in a 11×11 keeper league and I have 3 draft picks in a row. I am keeping Felix, Santana, Cano, Wright, and Reyes. Here’s whose available: Latos, Price, Hamels, Bruce, Victornio, Chris Young, Kendrys, Konerko and BJ Upton. I am leaning towards Kendrys, Hamels, Bruce. Your thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2011
Hey James. I wouldn’t draft kendrys. We still aren’t certain how much time he will miss, or when he will be back at 100 percent. Hamels is the right call, and I have no issue with Bruce either, especially in a keeper league. 3rd guy has to be BJ Upton. There are only two players with at least 40-steals each of the past three years – Michael Bourn and Upton — Bourn hits 3 HRs a year, Upton 15. Take Upton who has 20/40 upside.
By Swin on Mar 28, 2011
Y. Chacin or T. Lilly? Last pick in a 16 team points league. Points for wins, ERA and K’s. Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2011
Go with Lilly. That guys is as consistent as the sun, has great ratios, and with the move to LA a great home park to pitch in.
By Callaway on Mar 30, 2011
Please help me Ray, should I start Shields or Gio Gonzalez this first week?
By Callaway on Mar 30, 2011
Orrrrr… Nolasco?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2011
Callaway – honestly, it’s too early to know. Teams are still putting together lineups/rosters etc. At this point we dont have much data to go on, so I would just suggest going with your most skilled and apparently locked in pitchers. At this point, that would seem to be Nolasco and Gio.
By PJ on Mar 31, 2011
Hey, Ray. Love the site. Big fan of your work. Do you change your stance on waiting on pitching in an NL-Only format? I ask bc I jumped on pitching earlier than I planned with Lee and Hanson in the first 6 rounds. Also wound up with Marcum. You don’t seem as high on him as most. Is he healthy enough to start week 1 and what are your long term thoughts? I could slot in Zimermann or Bumgarner if week 1 health is a concern. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 31, 2011
PJ – Glad you enjoy the work, happy to help out. League specific setups are a big diff, so going pitching earlier does make sense (this is more acute in the AL this yr). Marcum I love – dont know why you think I dont like him. Problem is his health – his track record there is spotty, but his skills are solid. Getting out of AL East for NL is a big boost. I’d want to make sure he is healthy before I rolled him out there given his shoulder woes in camp.
By Doggie on Apr 2, 2011
Hi Ray,
I am a big fan of yours. I didn’t end up with any aces. I need strikeouts on my staff. I just cut Stauffer and picked up Pineda. Worth the risk. What do you think? I also need SBs but I cut Crisp for Sizemore who I just picked up on waivers. I thought the upside was worth it. I liked Sizemore stole a base in a game. Shows the knee is feling somewhat better. Thoughts? Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Apr 2, 2011
Doggie- Glad you enjoy the work – nice to hear our hard work pays off.
SP- Pineda certainly has a lot of K potential, but I’d still take Stauffer if I was planning on overall production in 2011. It’s a slight risk, but not a terrible one.
As for cutting Crisp for Sizemore — can’t say the same thing there. If you need steals this is the exact wrong thing to do. Sizemore will be lucky to get 20 steals, and honestly, I wouldn’t expect more than 10. Crisp is a much better bet in SBs, with 30 likely being the target.
By Terry on May 11, 2011
Ray- when do I cut bait with Matt Thorton? I have Storen, perez, Rauch, and Salas. Do I drop him and pick up Bud Norris. Thanks-
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Terry – I’m shocked at how Thornton continues to be so up and down. At this point, I wouldn’t fault anyone for dropping him, especially with Santos looking so good. If you want to chuck him for Bud Norris, I have no problem with that.