Top-50 Relief Pitchers
March 10th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Photo by Nick Fisher
Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a collaborative effort with Paul Sporer. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers and relievers.
In this entry I’ll breakdown my top-50 relievers for 2011.
Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target as values in drafts. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.
TOP-50 RELIEVERS
1 Brian Wilson
2 Joakim Soria
3 Heath Bell
4 Carlos Marmol
5 Jonathan Papelbon
6 Jonathan Axford
7 Neftali Feliz
8 Mariano Rivera
9 Andrew Bailey
10 Joel Hanrahan
11 Chris Perez
12 Jose Valverde
13 Matt Thornton
14 Jonathan Broxton
15 Huston Street
16 Brad Lidge
17 J.J. Putz
18 Francisco Rodriguez
19 Leo Nunez
20 Ryan Franklin
21 Drew Storen
22 Francisco Cordero
23 Craig Kimbrel
24 Joe Nathan
25 Frank Francisco
26 Jake McGee
27 Kevin Gregg
28 Fernando Rodney
29 Brandon League
30 Brandon Lyon
31 Hong-Chih Kuo
32 Ryan Madson
33 Luke Gregerson
34 Aroldis Chapman
35 Matt Capps
36 Jonny Venters
37 Rafael Soriano
38 Evan Meek
39 Kenley Jansen
40 David Aardsma
41 Daniel Bard
42 Mike Adams
43 Chris Sale
44 Scott Downs
45 Koji Uehara
46 Joba Chamberlain
47 Brian Fuentes
48 Kyle Farnsworth
49 Alexi Ogando
50 Tyler Clippard
* I’d feel really comfortable with any of the top-15 closers on this list, then things start to get a bit spotty.
* Brad Lidge (16) has the full trust of his manager Charlie Manuel, so as long as he is healthy, even if his ratios are sub par, you have to think 30 saves are a given.
* J.J. Putz (17) has the skills to be an elite reliever – if he’s healthy.
* K-Rod (18) is a disaster off the field. On it, there are concerns about whether or not the Mets will limit his work late in the year since he has a clause in his contract that will give him $17.5 million in 2012 if he finishes 55 games this season.
* Leo Nunez (19) has all kinds of questions surrounding him after a late season collapse last year. Still, the guy got more than a K per inning last season and had a GB/FB ratio of 1.79. If he repeats those numbers, success will follow.
* Francisco Cordero (22) has Aroldis Chapman (34) to worry about, but I would be more concerned about the fact that his K/9 rate has fallen off a cliff. Look at his marks the past four years: 12.22, 9.98, 7.83 and 7.31.
* Young arms with strong skill sets can be found in the 20′s highlighted by Craig Kimbrel (23) and Jake McGee (26). Can Kimbrel throw enough strikes to hold off Jonny Venters (36) in Atlanta? Will McGee open the year as the Rays’ closer? I don’t know as the club might go with Kyle Farnsworth (48), but I expect McGee to have the better year.
* Good luck finding betters arms than hurlers 31-34: Hong-Chih Kuo, Ryan Madson, Luke Gregerson and Aroldis Chapman.
* Don’t forget about Mike Adams (42) in San Diego. I’m not certain that if something happened to Heath Bell that it wouldn’t be he, and not Gregerson, who would pitch the 9th inning.
* If the Rangers do the unexpected and ask Neftali Feliz (7) to fill a starting role, Alexi Ogando (49) could get a long look as the 9th inning arm since the club sent Frank Francisco (25) to the Blue Jays this offseason.
CATEGORY TARGETS
I’m a man of my word. On The Drive yesterday on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (5-8 PM EST, Sirius211, XM147), we received a call from Jeff in North Carolina. He asked me what “targets” he should look to attain when building a team in a 12-team league (i.e. how many homers he would need to hit to win a 12-team league). As I said on the air I would get him an answer, and here it is in the form of a link to an article written by fantasy baseball expert Shawn Childs. Enjoy.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alexi Ogando, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Lidge, Brian Wilson, category targets, Craig Kimbrell, Francisco Cordero, Frank Francisco, Hong Chiih-Kuo, J.J. Putz, Jake McGee, Jonny Venters, K-Rod, Leo Nunez, Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams, Neftali Feliz, Ryan Madson, targets, Top-50 Relief Pitchers, Top-50 Relievers
By Chase Golden on Mar 10, 2011
Okay, now that we’ve got all your positional rankings, are we going to get your rankings for everyone combined?!
By Eric on Mar 10, 2011
Do you ever consider the team when evaluating a closers? A team that may only win 65-75 games is not going to have a closer with 42 saves. Just wondering if this ever enters in to the mix. It is the reason that i would stay away from heath bell this year. I know the guy is a stud but S.D. looks like it could be a long year. Also what about a guy like the #1 guy on your list Brian Wilson how many times does a closer top a career high after setting one the year before? Not saying either of these guys are bad closers but it is such a situation driven stat that they are attached to.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 10, 2011
eric-
the truth is that you DONT have to be on a top flight team to rack up lots of saves.
Example – Joakim Soria had 43 saves last year for a Royals team that won 67 games.
David Aardsma had 31 saves for a team that won only 61 games.
Year after year this occurs.
I’d encourage you to read this article:
http://www.rototimes.com/article.php?article_id=31384
Here is a data point from that piece:
From 2003-09, the top-10 each year in save opportunities per win came from teams that, on average, went 81-81.
You simply don’t have to be on a team that wins 85 games to rack up saves.
By Paul on Mar 12, 2011
K-Rod a little low in your rankings, isn’t he?
I understand the whole contract clause but he still needs to close out 55 games, he could still end up with 30 saves.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 12, 2011
Paul-
Worried about Mets watching salaries.
Worried about his mental attitude.
Worried about his physical health.
He easily could save 35 games – I’m just not going to be an owner this year.
By Kevin in Toronto,CAN on Mar 13, 2011
I’m new to this blog and so far I like what I’m reading. First of all congrats to you Ray for the World Series win last year. I have to be honest I didn’t see that one coming at all. Now regarding this list I have to totally agree with you on Francisco Cordero. I thought he was going to lose the job last year. That declining K rate is a major indicator of regression. I’m not sure on Hanrahan being a top 10 closer, with ERA and WHIP numbers like last season. I definitely would rank Chris Perez and Valverde ahead of him. My sleeper pick is Johnny Venters in Atlanta. A better K pitcher than Kimbel we’ll see if he has the closer mentality. So far I’ve liked what I’ve seen.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2011
Kevin-
A lifetime of pain was washed away when the Giants won. It was magical.
Hanrahan – at this point, he has better skills than Perez and Valverde. Hanrahan had a massive K-rate leading to 100 Ks, and his second half was strong – 4.00 K/BB, 3.09 ERA. Unproven ? I can agree there, but the guy has big time stuff.
Venters certainly has looked way better than Kimbrel thus far, but he has the left handed thing going against him a bit. He seems a more stable option than Kimbrel though, agreed.
By Mark in Baltimore on Mar 11, 2012
Ray- I received my draft kit last night. Fantastic job! Thank you.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 11, 2012
Mark in Balt – Glad you are enjoying the Draft Guide my good man.