Who is #3?
March 16th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Photo by Benjamin Kabek
There is pretty much a consensus this year that Albert Pujols should go off the board first overall, and Hanley Ramirez seems to be locked in as the #2 selection in most peoples minds. After that, let the games begin.
Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.
Some think it should be Troy Tulowitzki because of his massive production from a scarce position (shortstop). I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years.
Some say Carlos Gonzalez. The guy hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.
Some say Evan Longoria. I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think (not if guys like Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are still on the board after 125 names have been called out).
What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.
Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me.
I think the clear option at #3 overall is Ryan Braun, a guy who has an ADP of about nine. Here is my argument for why Braun should be #3 (in fact, I’ll go you one further and say that I think Carl Crawford should be taken 4th overall – see the Top-300 for 2011).
THE CASE FOR BRAUN
(1) Consistency
In four big league seasons, Braun has never hit less than .285.
He has never hit fewer than 25 homers.
He has never had fewer than 97 RBI.
He has never scored less than 91 runs.
He has never stolen less than 14 bases.
That means in four seasons in the majors Braun has never produced a batting line of less than .285-25-97-91-14. Last year there were only four men in all of baseball who hit all of the marks (Braun, Pujols, Votto and CarGo), and those are the four year lows for Braun.
(2) Across the Board production
I went through the numbers above but just so it registers like it should…
Over the past four years there have been only 16 seasons of .285-25-97-91-14. Braun has fully a quarter of them meaning every other player in baseball has a grand total of 12 such seasons, or on average just three a year. Moreover, only three other men in the game have had two such seasons the past four years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.
(3) Health
Braun played only 113 games as a rookie, but that was because he was called up during the season from the minors. The past three years he has dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises, but each of those years he has appeared in at least 151 games. The last three years only 12 players have appeared in at least 151 games each campaign. It doesn’t matter how great you are, if you aren’t on the field your overall production just won’t stack up the elites of the game.
(4) Upside
Braun has just under four full seasons in the big leagues and he is only 27 years old. I don’t buy into the “27 year old breakout” hype, but the fact is that Braun could easily still have more to give at the dish. That is particularly intriguing given that his best 5×5 numbers thus far would result in a 5×5 effort of .324-37-114-113-20. Do you know how many such seasons have been produced in the 20th century? The answer is none. Moreover, over the last twenty years those five marks have only been reached in one season on three occasions: Ellis Burks (1996), Larry Walker (1997) and Barry Bonds (1993).
You could raise arguments such as position scarcity and the fact that Braun has seen his ground ball rate rise substantially the past two years as reasons to pass on Braun at the number three overall spot, but to me it’s pretty clear that he would seem to have the least risk of any of the players who are consistently going in the top-10 after Pujols and Hanley are off the board. In my mind that is a huge factor that should be taken into consideration when you think about who you are going to take if you have the #3 spot on draft day.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: #3 overall, Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Top-10, Top-10 for 2011, Troy Tulowitzki
By Dennis on Mar 16, 2011
Please stop! I pick sixth and I’m dying to get Braun! On the other hand, it’s nice to know I’m not alone in my thinking.
By Steve on Mar 16, 2011
I pick 4th in a 14 team H2H league.
I’d be interested to hear why you dismissed Votto so quickly.
His 4 year numbers are very close to Braun’s, with the exception of SBs, and all his peripheral stats point to a repeat of last year is not out of the question.
I’ve narrowed my potential selection down to Votto, Crawford or Braun.
I was able to get Crawford at 11 last year and he gave me top 2 production. I think the move to Boston is going to boost his runs and Rbi’s. He’s good for 20 hrs, just not I can bank on the 50 steals again.
By Eric on Mar 16, 2011
Ray i agree i think there are 3 fairly safe picks this year. Pujols= awsome Miguel Cabrera(last i saw no off the field sats in fantasy)=never really has had a bad year and Ryan Braun= if last year was a down year i will take it to the bank.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2011
Cabrera is the one that concerns me. Not with the on the field stuff, but the way I look at it.
If I have to fuses and one is already lit, I’m going to choose to hold the one that isn’t burning – hence my decision to go with Braun over Miggy.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2011
Steve-
Votto likely wont push 20 steals. Dont forget he only had 12 his first three seasons. Braun could run more with new approach in MIL as well.
Second, here are their average numbers the past three years.
Braun: .304-94-323-306-48
Votto: .314-86-281-257-27
Votto’s been good, but a step behind Braun.
Crawford may be the most consistent fantasy performer the past seven years other than Pujols. Here is the proof – http://baseballguys.com/2011/01/28/pick-your-poison-crawford-or-tulo/
By Ernie on Mar 17, 2011
Ray, I pick 6th and was thinking about Cano. If Braun, Crawford or Votto are still on the board I should go with them?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2011
Yes, I’d go with all three of those guys before Cano. Second base is pretty deep this year so I can see waiting to get a guy there. Here is my top-300 to give you some thoughts on the matter: http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/11/top-300-for-2011/
By Randy on Mar 17, 2011
I was contemplating keeping Adrian Gonzalez over Ryan Braun; however Ray’s man crush on Braun has convinced me other wise, not to mention there are a few other similar corner options such as Tex, Votto, and Fielder that are going in the 2nd Round…
By Jeff in NJ on Mar 17, 2011
Ray, taking Pujols number 1 in a 12 team 5×5. Thinking of taking Pedroia at either 24 or 25 if he is there. Looked at your top 300 list and knowing that I have Pujols, I’m assuming that I go with Matt Holliday if he slips to pair with Pedroia or do I go for more of a power/speed guy like Kemp or Cruz (or to a lessor extent Choo) knowing that Pujols is pretty much locked in stat-wise barring injury. I was also looking at Upton for a combo guy, but most services have him in the 30s as you do
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2011
Pujols at top is obviously wonderful.
If you can grab Holliday there, that’s a bonanza of talent and consistency.
I assume you will get two picks there at the turn. If you can grab either Pedroia or Kemp there as your third player, pretty amazing trio. I could see your reluctance to go with two outfielders in your top-3 picks. Pedroia has some health concerns with foot, Cruz with hammy. Holliday, he has none. Kemp? He could go 30/30 though he could also repeat last season.
You’ve seen my top-300 so you know how I rank the players.
By Jeff on Mar 19, 2011
Two questions Ray:
Why do you have C. Santana rated so low (#119 overall) and below G. Soto?
I know you have Halladay ranked at #15, but would you really draft a pitcher in the second round of a standard 12 team roto 5×5 league?
Keep up the great work.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2011
ADP at MockDraftCentral has them pretty much the same as I do. Soto #99 and Santana #132.
Soto has a history in the league, Santana doesn’t. Also, Soto likely to have a bit more pop at this point of their respective careers. Both are strong options.
I would NEVER draft a pitcher in the second round of a 5×5, 12 teamer. I would never take a pitcher in the first five rounds actually. So why do I have Halladay that high? Because that’s how I think his value will play out in 2011 if he stays healthy all year. Still, I’m going offense early.
By Kevin in Toronto,CAN on Mar 22, 2011
I’m with you on Braun @ #3 all the way. 2011 may very well turn out to be his best season yet. Last year his HR power slipped but his doubles went up. He plays everyday. He hits in a solid lineup. Too bad he doesn’t have 3B eligibility anymore.
By Matthew on Mar 26, 2011
Ray,
Please help me understand the Tulo fascination. Was this guy not a very average player before a historic September last year? He hit 15 HR and drove in 40 in that month along. Leaving his production from April – August at 13 HR and 55 RBI. Does ANYONE predict a month like that to repeat in 2011? Why is no one talking about the risk of taking a guy #3 overall with a history of injuries and no real track record of consistent production?
You are the man…please help me make sense of this.
Thank you.
By Craig Misch on Mar 30, 2011
Ray…I could not agree more. Braun is a complete stud all around fantasy player. I drafted 7th an was lucky enough to get him. I get the Tulo thing being a ss and all, but for my money, Braun is #3.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2011
Craig- I’ve gotten a lot of push back with Braun, but I still think it was/is the right call. Time will tell, but I’m comfortable with the decision to suggest going with Braun at #3.