SWIP Part II: Starting Pitchers
March 21st, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
In the PART I of this series of articles on SWIP, I spent time explaining just what this metric is and how it works. Rather than restating everything that was listed in the previous discussion, I would just suggest that you take a moment to review the piece so that we can all move forward on the same page. A few notes before I break down the starters.
Here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate SWIP.
SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
The 2010 ML average for SWIP was 0.43.
With that, let’s get to what you really want to see, and that is how the starting pitchers performed in 2010.
As you can see from the leader board, there is some difference between how pitchers finished in WHIP and ERA.
Major league WHIP leader Cliff (1.00) posted a terrific SWIP mark of 0.79, good for 2nd in SWIP. The leader in SWIP last season wasn’t AL CY Young winner Felix Hernandez (0.65) or NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay (0.75). The SWIP leader turned out to be Jered Weaver (0.80), hardly a shock considering that he led baseball with 233 strikeouts (you can see the whole list by clicking on the above link).
Here are some of the highlights, and lowlights, of how those who qualified for the ERA title last season fared according to SWIP. Remember…
.90 and Up: An excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: Nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days could be numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.
0.75 – Mat Latos, Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano
A trio of big time arms who rack up the strikeouts while not walking many.
0.73 – Tim Lincecum
Each of his three full seasons he has had at least 231 Ks and the result has been SWIP mark of 0.80.
0.72 – Cole Hamels
Hamels returned to the elite after a slight down turn in 2009 (0.65).
0.69 – Dan Haren
How good is this ace? Over the past four seasons his SWIP is 0.72.
0.68 – Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo
One injured ace is down. If the other can curtail the walks (3.65 per nine), pity batters.
0.67 – James Shields
I keep telling everyone, despite his 5+ ERA, Shields pitched pretty well last season.
0.64 – Clayton Kershaw
Just like Gallardo, the key will be cutting down the walks (3.57 per nine). If he does, he will join the elite.
0.62 – Scott Baker
A pitcher who has excellent skills, even if the results aren’t always where you’d expect them to be (and he’s nice enough to pose for pictures with pretty brunettes too).
0.55 – Ubaldo Jimenez
All those strikeouts (214) mitigated by his 94 free passes (second worst in the NL).
0.52 – David Price
Solid for sure, but still has a ways to go to truly be someone you can consider a Cy Young contender every year.
0.50 – Jonathon Niese
Admit it, you’re shocked that he was just 0.02 behind Price aren’t you. Now you’re starting to see why I like Niese as a strong end game grab in mixed leagues.
0.42 – Jaime Garcia
Better keep up that ground ball rate because even with all his success last year his SWIP mark was below league average.
0.38 – Gio Gonzalez
I don’t doubt that Gio will have some success, but he will be hard pressed to repeat his breakout 2011 effort.
0.31 – Clay Buchholz
His major league days aren’t numbered, not with his strong ground ball rate, but Clay’s SWIP mark says that those ground balls better find his fielders gloves or things could get ugly.
0.28 – Tim Hudson, Trevor Cahill
Remember back in PART I when I said certain pitchers aren’t going to score well in SWIP even though they are fine starting pitchers?
And drum roll please —
The worst man in baseball, who tossed at least 160 innings last season was Brad Bergesen of the Orioles. When you throw 170 innings and only strike out 81 batters you aren’t helping yourself out too much. Given that he walked 51 batters, Bergesen finished the year with a sickly 0.18 SWIP, one hundredth better than the worst qualifier in the NL – Kyle Kendrick (0.19).
Curious as to who those pitchers did who didn’t toss at least 162 innings last season? Here is another leader board for pitchers who threw at least 90-innings last season.
0.77 – Brandon Morrow
Though he walked a ton, he also had the best K/9 rate per nine innings amongst any pitcher who threw 100-innings last season.
0.72 – Ricky Nolasco
I don’t know how many of you are willing to take the risk, but if Nolasco tosses 180-innings he could be a top-25 starter in the fantasy game.
0.60 – Daniel Hudson
He had a great run to end the year with the D’backs. What will he do for an encore?
0.58 – Travis Wood
This rookie was pretty darn impressive last year when called upon in the second half.
0.56 – Kevin Slowey, Josh Beckett, Jhoulys Chacin
Two veterans that most are down on, and one rookie who everyone seemingly likes. Which guy would you pay the most for on draft day?
0.55 – Jake Peavy
From 2004-09 his SWIP mark was 0.74.
0.55 – Homer Bailey
Will Bailey finally makes 30 starts and break through for the Reds?
0.54 – Madison Bumgarner
It’s certainly a small sample size but over his last nine appearances, including the playoffs, his SWIP mark was 0.78.
0.53 – Bud Norris
It’s all about the heat with this guy who needs to learn how to control the strike zone to avoid being sent to the bullpen.
0.47 – Brett Anderson
A great pitcher when healthy, he’ll likely never score that highly in SWIP because he doesn’t have a big strike out arm.
0.38 – Daisuke Matsuzaka
Was it really just two years ago that some thought this guy would be a perennial all-star?
Tags: Fantasy University, Pitching, SP SWIP, Starting Pitcher SWIP, SWIP, SWIP 2011
By Matt on Mar 21, 2011
Great stats. It helped me feel better about my decision to reach a bit and select T.Wood (ADP 291) over J.Garcia (ADP 192) with the 228 pick.
By Jim on Mar 22, 2011
Everyone has to draft a few players in late rounds that may or may not outperform their draft positions. This year, I’m going with your “Skills over Past Performance” axiom, Ray. Why not? So I picked up Baker, Nolasco and Shields late in a mixed league. We’ll see. In my NL-only (where we have no bench slots), I’m avoiding Nolasco, at least until June. He seems to have had a little problem shaking off the Spring rust the past couple of years; maybe I’ll outthink myself and make a pitch for him or grab him off the wire when his ERA is around 8.00 at the end of May.
By Kevin in Toronto,CAN on Mar 22, 2011
This stat is limited and in some cases, can be deceiving. Case in point James Shields. Contrary to your opinion he did not pitch well last season. He gave up a major league leading 246 hits and 34 homers in just over 200 innings. He’s always been a pretty good control pitcher and he had a big jump in his K rate which inflated this stat.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2011
Kevin-
Shields pitched very well last year.
Best k/9 of his career.
K/BB same as always.
Unlucky in HR/9, Unlucky in BABIP, esp. given his LD-rate.
LOB% was far too low as well.
GB/FB same as always.
Oh yeah, his FIP was only 4.24, just above his 4.03 career mark.
Shields pitched as he always did last year – very well, just had some bad luck.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2011
Take that approach, skills vs. 5×5 numbers, and many times you end up ahead.
Baker, Nolasco, Shields late in mixed leagues — great move.
By Frank on Mar 23, 2011
Hey Ray,
I am wondering if you could offer any help on adjusting during an auction for inflation. I understand the concept but I am struggling on how to apply it. I am in a 5X5 Mixed League, no keepers, $260 for 23 players (14 hitters, 9 Pitchers), thanks a lot Ray!
Frank
By Ray Flowers on Mar 23, 2011
Frank –
the best way to do it is to invest in a program that actually does it for you. You’ll need a computer, and have to pay for the program, but that’s the ideal way to handle in draft inflation.