MLB Mailbag: March 23, 2011
March 23rd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Photo By Jon Dawson
Are you seriously trying to tell people that James Shields is a better option this year than Matt Cain or Matt Garza?
– Jimmy, San Antonio, Texas
I certainly like to get in trouble at times don’t I?
I’m sure this question comes from my recently published top-100 list for starting pitchers in which I had James Shields at #24, Matt Cain at #27 and Matt Garza at #36. On the surface those rankings do look bonkers, after all Shields posted an ERA over five last year, but here is my reasoning.
With Cain, his arm hiccup in spring makes me a tad nervous (without it I would have had him ahead of Shields). From 2006-10 Cain was one of nine hurlers who tossed at least 190-innings each season. Have all the innings finally started to catch up with him? Provided they haven’t, you know exactly what to expect from Cain as his performance has certainly been rock solid. At the same time, he’s only had one season with more than 13 wins and has only one season of 180 Ks. If his new level of performance mirrors his work the last two years (3.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) then he will be the hurler to own out of this threesome if he can avoid injury, there is little doubt about that.
Garza is another one of those rock solid hurlers who’s performance has remained remarkably stable the past three years, just look at his ERA (3.70, 3.95 and 3.91) and WHIP (1.24, 1.26 and 1.25) in that time. The immediate reaction is to think that those numbers will improve in 2011 now that he is out of the AL East and pitching in the National League. Not so fast. A fly ball hurler who has seen his FB-rate increase in each of the past four years (up to 45 percent last year), Garza gives up a wee bit too many fly balls for my comfort for a guy who will pitch half his games in Wrigley Field, the 5th best park in the NL in terms of homers in 2010 according to Park Indices (the last three years the park ranks 4th). Does the ballpark factor alone mean that the advantage he will gain moving to the NL could be wiped out by where he will pitch his home games?
Shields lost 15 games, had a 5.18 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP last season, all terrible numbers. So how in the world can I put him in the same breath as the others? Hear me out.
First, Shields was terribly unlucky last year. Despite a line drive rate that was only one percent above his career level, his BABIP rose by nearly .035 points. That doesn’t make sense on the surface, and the contention that he was “unlucky” is buttressed by his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 4.24, nearly a full run below his actual ERA (5.18). In addition, though his GB/FB ratio was the same as always at 1.08 (career 1.15), he allowed a terribly high 1.50 homers per nine inning (career 1.22) thanks to a career worst HR/F rate of 13.8 percent. Have you ever heard of a ‘perfect storm?’ Second, his K/9 rate last year was a carer best (8.28), about a batter above his career level (7.38). Third, his K/BB ratio of 3.67 was only 0.03 off his career mark. It was also the 10th best mark in baseball. It might also surprise you that Shields led this trio in K/9 and K/BB. Shields also posted a better FIP (4.24) than Garza (4.42), and though his mark trailed Cain (3.65) it was nowhere near the two run difference in their actual ERA (5.18 to 3.14).
If Cain is healthy he’s likely to be the top dog out of this trio, but that doesn’t mean he will be the best investment. Based upon draft day cost Shields should easily be the most effective use of your resources given that he will come at a discount in most leagues because of his “down” 2010 performance.
I’ve been hearing a lot of good things about Todd Helton. I’m in a 13-team NL-only league and I was able to grab him for $5 on draft day. Was that a worthy investment on my part?
– Nick, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
So far this spring Helton has looked strong hitting .355 with a .916 OPS in 31 at-bats. Of course, we’re talking about 31 at-bats. Plus, Helton is 37 years old and coming off the worst season of his career (.256-8-37 with a .728 OPS in 398 at-bats), so anything positive would likely be an improvement at this point.
Jim Tracy came out earlier this week and said that the plan is for the club to rest Helton liberally over the course of the season to keep him in shape (essentially to keep his back strong). The club also brought in Ty Wigginton this offseason to give them some depth at first if need be in case Helton resembles the player who failed to hit .270 or reach 400 at-bats in two of the past three seasons. At the same time Helton is just one year removed from a .325-15-86 line, and he can still get on base (his .362 OBP last year was a career worst and the first time his OBP had been under .390 since 1998). Helton is no longer a threat to hit 20 homers or to win a batting title, but if used properly he can still be an effective offensive weapon given his ability to get on base. Does that translate into fantasy value in 5×5 leagues? Not really. Personally I have a soft spot for Helton so I have no issue with a $5 bid. If he craps out you haven’t wasted too much dough, and if everything breaks right he could double your investment, though the odds are against that actually happening.
Tell me why I shouldn’t expect Starlin Castro to go 20/20 this season? I’m loving this kid.
– Jim, Fremont, California
Sample size people.
Castro has blown up this spring hitting .383 with four homers and a .702 SLG in just 47 at-bats. Point #1 – it’s 47 at-bats. Point #2 – it’s spring training. Point #3 – we are talking about four swings.
I don’t doubt that Castro could evolve into a 20 homer hitter, after all the guy turns 21 years old tomorrow, but expecting him to reach those heights this summer because of a good month of hitting seems foolish. Castro hit three homers last year in 463 at-bats with the Cubs, and since he turned pro he has gone deep 10 times in 1,237 at-bats. Do you trust 1,237 at-bats or 47 in terms of their predictive power? I’ll tell you this. If Castro hits 51 percent of his balls on the ground this season to match the mark he posted in 2010, he will have no shot at 20 homers, 15 will be hard to attain, and the ceiling might be 10. Perhaps he’s dialed in a more powerful stroke this spring, but I still find it hard to believe that he will be able to double the homer production he has offered in three years in professional baseball in half as many at-bats in 2011.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can also be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Tags: James Shields, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Starlin Castro, Todd Helton
By Eric on Mar 26, 2011
has Utley really fallen so far that i got him for $5 in my auction this morning?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2011
In a 14 team league last night – I grabbed him in the 12th round.
Who knows what will happen, but Utley for $5 is a steal. If he only plays a quarter of the year he’ll earn that investment.
By Brenden on Mar 26, 2011
In a dynasty league where you keep every player on your roster, I’m short on closers (I only have 2).
I’m thinking of trading Jeter or Abreau for a closer. What type of closers could one of those guys bring in a dynasty league given their age?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2011
No way to know Brenden, totally depends on how players are evaluated. Some see Jeter and think top-50 player. Others think top-100. Some see Abreu and think 20/20, others see a guy approaching 40. It all depends on how the players are evaluated.
By Dawn on Mar 27, 2011
What do you expect out of jake fox this year? With lee hurt he will at least get a shot. Picked him up for 1$ as 2nd catcher. Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2011
Dawn-
If Fox qualifies at C in your league, then he is a great AL Only target. If he doesn’t, its going to be tough for him to get into the lineup every day. Lee should be fine, and if he is, Fox has no position. As a dollar or two flier late then its a decent investment, but don’t go reaching on him because of his big spring. He has no true position, and he just isn’t that good a hitter (not quite Rus Branyan, but something like that – lots of power, poor average).
By Dan on Mar 28, 2011
Hey Ray,
Keep up the great source for information. Who has the better season overall. Napoli, Iannetta, or Saltalamacchia? In a daily league is it worth having 2 if you had a bench spot over someone like Carlos Gomez?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2011
Napoli, Iannetta, Salty. That would be my guess. I love Iannetta though in terms of cost, his ROI will be a lot better than Napoli’s. Only 12 catchers had 400 at-bats last year, so you could roll with two in one spot and get big numbers if you know which days they will be playing.
By Rob on Mar 28, 2011
How has the Treanor trade affected Napoli’s ranking among all MLB catchers in your opinion? And how many AB do you see him getting this season?
By Blacksox on Mar 28, 2011
If I’m in a 12 team, NL keeper league, $275 cap where I get 1 chance to extend the contracts of my players by adding $5 to their contracts for each year kept, how many years would you add to Pedro Alvarez ($1), Tommy Hansen ($1), and Carlos Gonzalez ($2). I was leaning towards 3 years for Alvarez and Hansen and 4 years for Cargo. We run about 24% inflation rate at draft.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2011
I dont think it changes too much. Napoli will probably get about 400 at-bats. If he does, he can hit 25 HRs as we’ve seen before. If they move Young, then he’ll likely see more time at DH, and that could bump the ABs. Only 12 catchers had 400 at-bats last year, so most don’t get too high.
By joel on Mar 28, 2011
Ray –
drafted last night and got Javy Vasquez as my last starting pitcher. Others on my team are Sabathia, Hamels, Billingsley, Dan Hudson, Brett Anderson and Tim Stauffer. Anyway, both Drabek and Beachy are on the wire. Do you think I should cut Javy for either or both of them? If so, which has priority? Thanks! BTW, I used your top 100 pitchers list to guide me.
By Rob on Mar 28, 2011
Thanks for the feedback on Napoli. What are your general thoughts on my roster? I went heavy on SP hoping to rotate them in daily to maximize points. Is that a good strategy? (daily trans, H2H points, 10 teams)
1. (6) Troy Tulowitzki
2. (15) Joey Votto
3. (26) Dustin Pedroia
4. (35) Jose Bautista
5. (46) Hunter Pence
6. (55) Cole Hamels
7. (66) Andre Ethier
8. (75) Yovani Gallardo
9. (86) Billy Butler
10. (95) Corey Hart
11. (106) Max Scherzer
12. (115) Jonathan Broxton
13. (126) Rafael Furcal
14. (135) Michael Cuddyer
15. (146) Ricky Nolasco
16. (155) Edinson Volquez
17. (166) Sean Rodriguez (ended up dropping for Gio Gonzalez)
18. (175) John Axford
19. (186) Mike Napoli
20. (195) Trevor Cahill
21. (206) Ian Kennedy
22. (215) James Shields
23. (226) Logan Morrison
24. (235) Jason Kubel
25. (246) Jose Tabata
Of course, there’s always a way to improve. I’m thinking about proposing a trade to the guy who drafted Utley. He has Figgins and Abs. Cabrera but no one to slot into the MI spot when he moves figgins to 2B (and no other option at second). Is it smart to offer Napoli, Furcal and Hart for Posey and Braun? Who would you reco as a underrated MI I could target if he accepts and this passes? FYI, Peralta and Uribe are available and I could pick up S. Rod who I dropped.
By Jeff - NNJ on Mar 28, 2011
Ray, any sense of Trumbo’s role once Morales returns? Just tracking him for waiver wire purposes; Scocsia’s track record with rookies is a bit of a wildcard
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2011
Jeff – If Morales returns to full health Trumbo’s role will be tenuous. IF Bourjos hits, there will be no spot in the lineup for Trumbo with Abreu at DH, Hunter in RF, Wells in LF. So the real key isn’t Morales, its actually Bourjos.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2011
Rob- if your league does not have an upper innings limit, then you are in good shape with a lot of starters. You can win the K category, and probably wins, BUT it will be tough to win ERA/WHIP. Broxton/Axford are big arms and could be a nice duo in the pen.
If anyone would take napoli/furcal/hart for Braun/Posey, then they aren’t very smart. Make the offer. If it’s accepted you made out HUGE.
Peralta is the guy I would pick up. He’s SS/3B eligible.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2011
Blacksox –
Alvarez add 4 years so he would be $21 in five years, right?
Hanson I’d add 4 yrs.
CarGo I’d add 5 yrs.
By Eric on Mar 28, 2011
Ray- Love the blog …love the your show.
Hey, I just did my first keeper league draft in which I inherited a team. I wanted to know what you thought. I wasn’t left with many too keep but they were some good guys.
12 team standard 5×5 in which we keep 4 for up to 3 years adding 3 draft spots each year they are kept.
1. (7) Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B)
2. (18) Andrew McCutchen (Pit – OF)
3. (31) Adam Dunn (CWS – 1B)
4. (42) Robinson Canó (NYY – 2B) **KEEPER**
5. (55) Michael Young (Tex – 3B)
6. (66) Roy Oswalt (Phi – P)
7. (79) Zack Greinke (Mil – P)
8. (90) Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
9. (103) Tsuyoshi Nishioka (Min – 2B,SS)
10. (114) Vladimir Guerrero (Bal – OF)
11. (127) Shaun Marcum (Mil – P)
12. (138) Craig Kimbrel (Atl – P)
13. (151) Colby Lewis (Tex – P)
14. (162) Hiroki Kuroda (LAD – P)
15. (175) Frank Francisco (Tor – P)
16. (186) Paul Konerko (CWS – 1B) **KEEPER**
17. (199) Carlos González (Col – OF) *KEEPER**
18. (210) Kevin Gregg (Bal – P)
19. (223) Dustin Ackley (Sea – OF)
20. (234) Peter Bourjos (LAA – OF)
21. (247) Ricky Romero (Tor – P) **KEEPER**
22. (258) A.J. Pierzynski (CWS – C)
23. (271) Brian Duensing (Min – P)
24. (282) Domonic Brown (Phi – OF)
25. (295) Jonathon Niese (NYM – P)
26. (306) Koji Uehara (Bal – P)
27. (319) Scott Rolen (Cin – 3B)
28. (330) Danny Valencia (Min – 3B)
29. (343) Brad Hawpe (SD – 1B,OF)
30. (354) Tommy Hunter (Tex – P)
By Blacksox on Mar 28, 2011
Correct on your interpretation. Surprised you’d go 4, 4, 5. Thought I was pushing it at 3, 3, 4. Enjoy the show.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2011
MASSIVE keeper value with Cano/Gargo.
3B ain’t great.
MI impressive.
OF thin without Brown/Ackley (he’s now a 2B).
Pitching staff is solid. I like Niese way more than Deunsing who you took 25 picks earlier. Solid group of SPs other than Hunter – he’s got no value.
Kimrebl/Francisco have great arms even if roles aren’t locked, and just hope the Orioles dont give saves to Mike Gonzalez j/k
By Eric on Mar 28, 2011
There were alot of 3B keepers. Alkley will qualify at 2B/OF. He and brown are potential keeper. Hawpe may have good year at OF for me. Saves are saves a little bit of a punt but we will see.
By Rob on Mar 30, 2011
Following up on my pitching strategy question above, we have no limit and our points league doesn’t score ERA and WHIP directly, only IP, K, wins, saves with deductions for walks, losses, ER, hits. My follow up question is about my third bench spot. With Corey Hart about to go on DL, do I pick up Peralta to have some positional insurance on my batting bench or do I pick up de la Rosa or E-Jax to have yet another (would be a third SP on my bench) starter option to rotate into my pitching corps (daily trans)?
Am I placing too much emphasis on grabbing up the SPs for daily turnovers to maximize starts per week or do you think this strategy is sound?
Starters: Hamels, Gallardo, Scherzer, Nolasco, Volquez, Cahill, Kennedy, Gio Gonzales and Shields.
Relievers: Broxton and Axford.
Your insight is always appreciated and I listen to the drive daily! Actually heard you talking about Napoli the other day, very helpful.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2011
Rob – if you stream pitchers you’ll have a great chance in wins and K’s. However, you will likely have a hard time competing in ERA/WHIP. With no IP limit, I could see you streaming starters.
Peralta is a great add cause of ss/3b eligibility.
If you want to add another arm, I’d say Jackson is safer, but DLR has more upside. If we are talking about depth on bench, prob. bet to grab upside.
By Rob on Mar 30, 2011
Thank you! What do you think is more valuable in a weekly H2H points league: a bat like Peralta or an arm like DLR? I like the idea of all SP on the bench, suits my strategy, but I’m balking at the idea of having no bats to go to if someone else gets hurt. When Hart comes back from DL, would you drop DLR/Peralta or take a look at dropping Tabata or Kubel, keeping the 3 pitchers on the bench?