2011 Player Profile: Kevin Slowey
March 28th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Photo from Library of Congress
Help me out here. If I were to stop you on the street and ask you which pitcher you would want on your fantasy squad in 2011, which would you chose (based on their career numbers)?
Pitcher A: 32-36, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.25 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
Pitcher B: 39-21, 4.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.86 K/9, 4.57 K/BB
Duh, you’d choose Pitcher B.
Which of the following two hurlers would you select based on their 2010 numbers?
Pitcher A: 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB, 1.70 K/BB
Pitcher B: 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.71 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
Duh, you’d choose Pitcher B again.
So tell me, why would the Twins choose Pitcher A (Nick Blackburn) over Pitcher B (Kevin Slowey) as their 5th starter this season? Flat out – it beats me. Of course, I also couldn’t solve the Riddle of the Sphinx either, so maybe I’m not the right one to ask (and yes, I know that the riddle likely doesn’t have anything to do with the Sphinx on the Giza Plateau, but I liked the picture).
Let me be as clear as I can – Blackburn is, at his best, a league average hurler. In fact, that is being kind. Here are his career numbers versus the league average during his career.
Blackburn: 32-36, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.25 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
AL Avg: 33-32, 4.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.78 K/9, 2.04 K/BB
See what I’m saying?
Clearly Slowey is a better performer in ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, winning percentage – I could go on but why belabor the point. Let’s just say that the Twins are making an odd choice.
As for Slowey, how does he compare when we venture from placing him side-by-side with a slacker like Blackburn? Very well actually.
Slowey’s career K/9 mark is a tenth better than the AL average the past four years while his walk rate is well better than anything most pitchers could ever accomplish as his ability to throw strikes is virtually unparalleled. Slowey has walked an average of 1.50 batters per nine innings in his career for a total of 79 walks in his career. To compare, C.J. Wilson walked 93 batters last season. Moreover, amongst pitchers who have thrown 470 or more innings since 2007, Slowey is the second best pitcher in baseball at limiting walks behind only the great Roy Halladay (1.42). That impressive ability to throw strikes for Slowey has enabled him to post the third best K/BB ratio since 2007 at 4.57, just slightly behind Halladay (5.08) and Cliff Lee (4.60). That’s it, in all of baseball. So again, why in the hell is Slowey being sent to the bullpen in favor of Blackburn?
Now I’m not going to write this article totally pro-Slowey, I have to be honest about his faults too. There are three major issues with him.
(1) He has been unable to take the ball every five days (at least Blackburn can do that). Slowey has thrown 160.1, 90.2 and 155.2 innings the past three seasons. I’d like to think its just been bad luck, and maybe it has been, but he is no Matt Cain. At the same time he isn’t quite Erik Bedard either.
(2) He allows far too many fly balls. In his career his fly ball rate sites at 48.1 percent, and last season that number was even higher at 50.6 percent leading to an absolutely horrible 0.56 GB/FB rate.
(3) As a result of the fly balls, you guessed it, he has allowed far too many homers in his career. The big league average is about 1.0 per nine innings. Slowey has never posted a total below his 1.21 mark of last season and owns a career rate of 1.41 per nine. That’s awful.
On the plus side, Slowey has allowed a rather normal 10.0 percent homer to fly ball ratio in his career. The problem has been all those fly balls. So, theoretically, if he could just cut down on the fly balls a bit, his HR/9 mark could fall back to an “average” level. One way this might happen could be from a helping hand from his ball park. Target Field in Minnesota was the hardest park to go deep in during the 2010 season in the American League according to Park Indices. It would seem that Slowey is now in a great park given his skill set, and what do you know, his numbers at home were strong last season (8-4, 3.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.17 HR/9), so of course the Twins… oh never mind.
At this point it looks like Slowey will need an injury, or trade out of Minnesota, to become a mixed league option in 2011. As such, he is nothing more than a late round gamble since he could conceivably end up making 50 appearances out of the bullpen this year. The good news is that there must be a few intelligent GM’s out there who are aware of the data I’ve relayed here, so even if one of them isn’t in Minnesota, hopefully one of his compadres will make a deal for Slowey to let him do his thing every five days out of the starting rotation.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: 2011 Player Profile, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Twins
By Eric on Mar 28, 2011
Ray if you stopped me on the street and ask me which pitcher I would want on Mmy fantasy squad in 2011
The answer would be clearly be Justin Verlander who seems to always be over shadowed by others. I clearly believe that this is the year he will win a CY young. His down fall has always been a slow start which i think he has prepared him self for this spring.
By Andy Nelson on Mar 29, 2011
Ray –
I read your article, and as always…supremely written. You make Excellent points, and you are correct, “on paper” Slowey is much better than Blackburn. Me being the Twins fan/insider that I am, I would like to offer my “Twins-logic” to you.
1) Ultimately, I think it boils down to economics’…Twins have Blackburn for 4-yrs (2013), while they only have Slowey for 1-yr…both are priced the same with their current contracts see: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tIn6UNnQQrmryUesyK0wSwg&output=html. And overall… they give up appx. The same number of runs (both careers ERA’s = appx. 4.5-ish. Plus Slowey is more of a “tradable” commodity.
2) Twins have a Stud in the Minors in Kyle Gibson (I am sure you are aware), that will be ready for next season (if not later this year), and he will take over Slowey’s role… They also have another potential great pitcher in Alex Wimmers, but he is a couple-few years away, and I believe that he will eventually take over Blackburn’s role. Both Gibson/Wimmers are recent 1st round draft picks.
3) Twins already have a “Slowey” type-a pitcher on staff right now in Scott Baker… which is “why” Baker/Slowey were competing for spot #4 in the rotation (note, it is a spot AHEAD of Blackburn), and not Blackburn and Baker/Slowey. I think economics (along with more potential upside) may have been a contributing factor in the Baker/Slowey decision as well, because the Twins are paying more to Baker, and he’s contracted through 2012.
4) Gardy is in LOVE with Blackburn’s sinkerball, groundball rate, and GIDP efficiency (consistently one of the best in the league). I personally believe that Gardy wants someone on the mound who can “get outta trouble” with 1-pitch. Meaning: “Blackburn Scenario”: leadoff Single, Single, DP, ground out = 4-batters, 2-hits, 3-outs 0-RUNS! “Slowey Scenario”: leadoff Single, Sac Fly, Single (run scored), K, flyout = 5-batters, 1-RUN, 2-hits, 3-outs. I know you can play “what if’s” on both sides… I am just playing to the “strength’s” of each Pitcher.
5) Overall… I totally agree with you! Talent, and overall pitching ability the job should have gone to Slowey…No Question. However, economics, and “role players” (sinkerball/groundball) pitcher won out. Just like hockey… Scott “The Sheriff” Parker did not make the Sharks roster because of his goal scoring ability LOL
Alright….sorry to get so wordy on you, I just wanted to offer my opinion on your article yesterday (keep doing them on Twins).
By Frank on Mar 29, 2011
Hey Ray,
My plan was to target Bautista at 3B now that he is going to the OF I am going to target Mark Reynolds. Are you still high on him? How has he done this spring?
By Steve on Mar 29, 2011
Ray:
I like numbers. Maybe not as much as you do, I but I believe they can provide very useful information about players.
However, they are only one piece of the puzzle.
Real baseball teams are not fantasy teams. They have to have a certain chemistry. How does the guy get along with his catcher? Do his numbers look good, but he fails to improve? Did they ask him to do something and he either can’t or won’t?
Are they just placing a bet that Slowey will give up too many HRs and Blackburn will keep them in more games?
DId Blackburn work really hard in the offseason to learn a 3rd or 4th pitch?
The Twins saw something to make them like Blackburn more.
Remember, past performance does not guarantee future success.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 29, 2011
Frank – I’m not drastically changing my outlook on a player because he hit .350 or .220 in spring. It’s still a small sample size.
As for Bautista, he still qualifies at 3B and OF this season, if you are in a normal fantasy league, having played more than 20 games at each spot last year.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 29, 2011
Steve-
You are right, the game on the field isn’t all about numbers. At the same time, nearly all the numbers tilt toward Slowey. Maybe it works out for the Twins, but it seems to me to be a bad idea AND it destroys the value of Slowey. If the Twins dont love him enough to start, if I was another team, why would I give up much to get him in a deal?