Where Do Saves Come From?
March 29th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
On draft day every year, people seem to reach on closers. Not just that, they seem to often think that they have to get Mariano Rivera or Brian Wilson because they are on teams that win a lot of games. I mean, logic would seem to point to the fact that in order to roster a reliever with a prodigious save total he would have to pitch for a team that racked up a bushel of victories. However, does history bear this out as an accurate portrayal of what actually happens on the field?
In this study of relievers dating back to 2003, I will attempt to show that it isn’t a lead pipe cinch that you simply must have a closer from a top tier team to accrue strong save numbers. In fact, the data that follows would seem to suggest that you could do very well if you were smart about targeting the right arms, irrespective of the teams those hurlers pitch for.
To read the eight year study all you have to do is to click on the link to Where Do Saves Come From?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Relievers, RPs, Save Opportunities, Saves, SOPW%, Where Do Saves Come From?
By Ryan on Mar 29, 2011
I agree with what you’re trying to say but I don’t think this gets to the point. People can still say that it’s okay that SOPW is low for a guy on a great team because he will still get more TOTAL save opportunities because there are more wins to go around.
Better thing to look at is just a straight correlation between wins and save ops. I would say they’re not correlated. The Yankees might win 95 games and the Nats might win 70, but a larger proportion of the Yankees wins will be blowouts so their 3-run-or-less wins might be very close.
By Keith on Mar 29, 2011
Ryan beat me to it. Wins are not necessarily save ops. I actually have preferred looking for “closers” on mediocre or even poor teams for a few seasons now, because they’re more likely to be in tight games, because their teams probably can’t score in bunches. The closer on a great team gets more once-a-week non-save appearances, just to keep his arm alive.
By steve on Mar 29, 2011
Dynasty League (10 Team Auction)…I am trying to choose a pticher to add out of this group SP’s (Stauffer/Carlos Carrasco/Mike Minor/Javier Vazquez) or RP (Farnsworth – since I have McGee already). What do you recommend?
My current SP’s (sabathia/kershaw/weaver/shields/pineda)
My current RP’s
(Wilson/Franklin/McGee/Romo/R. Soriano/Sale)
thanks,
steve
By Ray Flowers on Mar 29, 2011
Steve – in keeper lg I’d add Carrasco or Minor. I know Minor isn’t in the bigs yet, but he’d get my vote.
By joel on Mar 30, 2011
Ray,
H2H 12 team 6×6 league. I’ve been offered Justin Upton and Kurt Suzuki for jay Bruce and Carlos Santana. Would you do it?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2011
Joel – I’d do it. Suzuki will play an awful lot, perhaps more than Santana, so even if his numbers are as good all the playing time will add up.
By Chuck on Mar 30, 2011
Week One RP question: Fuentes or Nathan? Not sure Nathan gets every save opportunity, while more conceiveable Fuentes will.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2011
Chuck – I agree with you. For week 1, safer play would seem to be Fuentes.
By matt on Mar 30, 2011
my starting catcher are jaso and avilla (i waited to long) . 12 team mixed we start 2 cacthers. would you trade branyan, staufer and alex gordon for clayton richard and kurt suzuki.
i dont start branyan (i have dunn and huff) or gordon (OF is braun, holliday, rios, bj upton and chris young). staufer is my #5 SP
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2011
Matt – gotta be honest, that’s a poor duo at C in 12 teamer, really bad actually. You need to upgrade there. Suzuki would be a great add, but your giving up a lot to get him – too much in my eyes. Keep searching, but I like Stauffer too much to swap him out for Richard.
By Joel on Mar 30, 2011
Ray– I made the Upton deal. Really happy about it.
I have one final strategy question. I have loads of pitchers, and we only have a 38 inning minimum for the week. One of my starters is Stauffer. Would it be too cute to bench him tomorrow for opening day in StL?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 30, 2011
Joel- When in doubt with a starting pitcher, I always suggest to people that they bench the guy. If you dont have a good feeling, just move on. There is nothing worse than a 4 IP, 6 R outing. It sucks to lose 6 SO innings, but the bad inning is way worse to your club.
By Joel on Mar 31, 2011
Thanks Ray. BTW, LOVE the site and the show.
By Phil on Mar 31, 2011
Ray,
Thanks for the article. On draft day I laughed as the run on “top” closers went wild in the 6th round and I was mocked for taking my first closer from a “bad” team in the 13th. As you perfectly laid out with the numbers, there is no reason to reach on closers when you could be taking more productive players in the early rounds. Keep up the good work!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 31, 2011
Phil- Closers who blew it on opening day = Franklin and Axford. Closer who succeeded = Rodney.
A perfect illustration why jumping in early on saves isn’t always needed.
By joel on Apr 1, 2011
Ray: I’m deep in starting pitching, with CC, Hamels, Billingsley, Brett Anderson, Dan Hudson, Tim Stauffer and Javy Vasquez. I’ve been offered Kemp, Zobrist and Bourne for Billingsley, Ellsbury and Michael Morse. I’m leaning towards doing it. what do you think?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 1, 2011
Joel – you’ve got to take that. Ellsbury and Bourn are similar. Zobrist better than Morse – not only does he play OF but also 2B. He’s a solid player who should play every day. It’s hard to lose billingsley, I really like him, but Kemp is a difference maker and potential top-10 performer. Do the deal and then look to bolster back up your staff.
By FP on May 13, 2011
Thank you sir. I appreciate being enlightened.