(1) Find or Fraud? – Sam Fuld.
(2) Travis Hafner already hurt.
(3) Chris Coghlan hurt – what’s his worth?
(4) Carl Crawford – what the hell is going on?
(5) Erik Bedard and Mike McCarthy.
By Ray Flowers
Ben Zobrist had a day for the ages on Thursday. In Game 1 of a doubleheader with the Twins, Zobrist pounded out four hits including a homer and eight RBI (that’s not a typo). He also tossed in two runs and a steal for good measure. In the second game he only had three hits and didn’t steal a bag, but he did hit a homer, drive in two runs and score three times. Twp games netted Zobrist two bombs, 10 RBI, five runs and a steal and all of a sudden he looks like a star. Moreover, Big Ben, and that’s his new name in these parts, has knocked in at least two runs in five straight games and now leads baseball with 25 RBI in 25 games. Wasn’t it just a week ago that many of you, and you know who you are, were sending me emails and tweets about dropping this guy? Remember what I said? Hopefully you listened and held on.
I pointed this out before, though I know that no one listened to me at the time (in fact, I remember specifically sneers and derision followed my comments). I mentioned this preseason that I had no idea why Rickie Weeks was being taken in drafts 80 picks ahead of Zobrist. I even went as far as to compare the two directly to one another and suggest that Zobrist would likely be the better value play. How could I make such a statement? Per 500 at-bats over the past three years (2008-2010) there was really no difference between the two.
Weeks: .256-20-60-90-13
Zobrist: .265-20-79-81-18
Again, at the time I was called a fool by many. Now you know me and my sample size argument that I always throw out there, so I’m not going to sit here and say “I was right’ after just a month of games. I will say though that my side of the argument looks pretty good right about now, doesn’t it?
Weeks: .309-6-10-21-2
Zobrist: .258-7-25-18-4
If you look at the shortstop position you will see that Asdrubal Cabrera leads all AL shortstops in runs batted in with 15 and that he is second in the league in runs scored at the position with 14. Somehow, that hot start has caused everyone to think that he is going to be a fantasy star this year. Folks, it ain’t gonna happen. Over his last 11 games he has one RBI and it’s been 14 games since he hit a homer. Let me break it down for you all in case you were wondering – Cabrera really isn’t anything more than an average option in mixed leagues despite the hot start. Per 500 at-bats in his career he’s produced a fantasy line of .283-7-60-70-9. While that’s certainly a passable line for a middle infielder, it’s not much different than what a guy like Jason Bartlett has produced over his career (.279-6-48-71-20). Don’t be swayed too heavily by the hot start.
Derek Lowe received a DUI last night. According to the police report he was not only intoxicated but he was also racing his 2011 Porsche Panamera – a really nondescript car to be speeding in. Tell me, do you drive home drunk? OK, maybe you drive home after you’ve had a few drinks, but aren’t you extra careful to do nothing to gain anyone’s attention? You make sure to stop, you probably drive on the backstreets, and you certainly don’t act like Jimmie Johnson racing down the street, do you? That misses the real point though. According to BaseballReference.com Derek Lowe has made more than $80 million dollars during his career. For goodness sakes Derek, hire a flipping driver. I’ve never understood why pro athletes, who can burn money in the fireplace for heat, don’t pay some guy $150,000 to drive them everywhere. Make the guy sign a non-disclosure agreement so he won’t talk about all the elicit things he sees and just be done with it. Morons. Maybe @Dwade had it right on Twitter when he wrote “… in Lowe’s defense, it’s really hard to convince the limo driver to drag race.”
By Ray Flowers
(1) Yovani Gallardo is struggling. Is it time to panic?
(2) Add Joe Mauer to the list of injured players I was right about (Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau)
(3) What’s wrong with Andrew McCutchen?
(4) Carlos Carrasco (elbow) to DL. Is Alex White worth a pickup?
(5) Nick Swisher 0-for-18, Carlos Lee 0-for-15. For more on Swisher see his 2011 Player Profile.
By Ray Flowers
Both of these first sackers have been viewed as potential middle of the order threats since the day they were drafted two spots apart in 2008, and both have started out well this year after disappointing beginnings to their big league careers. Is 2011 going to be a breakout year for either or both?
JUSTIN SMOAK
Drafted: 11th overall, 2008
2010 numbers:.279-9-30-33-0 in 50 games (AAA), .218-13-48-40-1 in 100 games (majors)
2011 numbers: .302-4-14-9-0 in 19 games
When you’re the centerpiece of a deal for Cliff Lee, you had better come through.
Smoak has been thought of as a .290, 25 homer threat since being drafted by the Rangers. He flew through the minors entering Triple-A in his second professional season, and all told only has 104 games at that level (he has just 119 games in the bigs). Clearly he’s still a very raw 24 years old. Last season he looked over-matched if you judge his effort by his .218 average, but hidden inside that effort was some positivity. Despite that hideous mark, Smoak smoked the ball (you didn’t think I would be able to avoid that reference did you?) to the tune of a 23.1 percent line drive rate. With a mark like that you’d figure his BABIP would be at least .310 or .320, yet somehow he ended the year with a .255 mark. Was he unlucky? On the surface it sure seemed that way. Flash forward to 2011 and his hit rate has gone way up to .326 in the early going. However, that total isn’t supported by a strong line drive rate as it has fallen to a terrible 14.0 percent. Odd to say the least. It’s also a concern that he has struck out in a quarter of his at-bats, but that seems to be the norm in the game anymore.
In terms of his skill set, Smoak is looking good. His 0.98 GB/FB is pretty much average, but the fly balls he hits end up in the seats frequently given his career 13.8 percent HR/F rate (the big league average is 9-10 percent). Safeco is a hard park to go deep in, but it seems like Smoak may have the ability, much like Adrian Gonzalez when he played at Petco, to still power the ball into the seats even if the park doesn’t help matters at all.
Bottom Line: Smoak appears likely to be a mixed league asset this year at the corner infield position. At the same time he doesn’t appear likely to break out this season. His average should be solid, as will his power production, but this guy isn’t Mark Teixeira – he’s much more likely to give you a Gaby Sanchez like line (.273-19-85-72-5 in 2010).
BRETT WALLACE
Drafted: 13th overall, 2008
2010 numbers: .301-18-61-64-1 in 95 games (AAA), .222-2-13-14-0 in 51 games (majors)
2011 numbers: .367-1-9-14-0 in 23 games
This man could always hit. However with about as bad a baseball ody as you could ever find, there have always been questions about his ability to play defense. Drafted as a third baseman by the Cardinals, he was moved to the Athletics, then the Blue Jays and finally to the Astros where is has settled in as a first baseman (honestly, his best “position” might be DH – though you never want to see that done with a guy who is this young).
Throughout his minor league career, Wallace has done as expected – he’s hit. In over 1,110 minor league at-bats Wallace has hit .304 with an OPS of .862 with an average of 21 homers per 500 at-bats. However, questions about his defense continued to dog him which is one of the reasons that he’s already on his fourth team.
As a major leaguer he’s only got 223 at-bats under his belt so it’s a bit tough to draw any real conclusions, but it’s safe to say that he has continued to be a solid hitter. However, his 29.1 percent K-rate bears watching, especially when pitchers learn how to get him out. How will he adjust? I’m also very concerned by his poor 0.25 BB/K ratio as there aren’t many players who can be uber successful with a rate like that. There’s also the little matter of that unsustainable .374 career BABIP mark.
Bottom Line: Wallace does a lot of things well, and there is little reason to think he’ll be anything other than a full-time player for the Astros. While he might hit for a better average than Smoak, he isn’t likely to match the power production of the Mariners first sacker. A valuable NL-only option, be careful not to overestimate his value in mixed leagues because of his hot start.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Andre Ethier has record 24-game hitting streak.
(2) Dodgers have no clue in 9th inning.
(3) Carlos Santana really struggling
(4) Reliever closing in on returns – Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma.
By Ray Flowers
Kay Adams, Kyle Elfrink and I had a big time debate yesterday on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. about Jose Bautista. My position was, as you probably expect, that I just don’t understand how he’s doing what he’s doing. Bautista leads the AL in average (.362), homers (eight), OBP (.522), SLG (.783) and OPS (1.304). How do people not see the utter folly in expecting him to continue along at this pace?
Let’s compare his current pace to his carer best numbers.
Average: .260 (career .247)
OBP: .378 (career .349)
SLG: .617 (career .462)
OPS: .995 (career .810)
Last year was totally ridiculous, you have to see that, but what he is doing this year is insane. I don’t care how he changed his swing, this guy simply isn’t Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols. How about some historical perspective. Do you know how many players have back-to-back 50 homer seasons? The answer is five guys – Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Babe Ruth. Even the most ardent fans of Bautista know that he doesn’t belong in that group, not even close. Beyond the homers, something everyone is simply missing completely here, is that Bautista has never, not once, hit even .265 in the big leagues. If he were to finish this year hitting .290 (there is no way he will if you ask me), and if he were to have 569 at-bats this year (his total from last year), we’re talking about a guy who will hit .280 the rest of the way. Again, given that he has never hit even .265 in a season, do you really think even that modest projection is likely?
Let me bash Starlin Castro for a moment. Will he one day be a top-5 shortstop? I don’t doubt that at all. Can he do it as a 21 year old this season? Even with his hot start (.350-1-11-17-4) I really question whether it’s possible. I touched on Castro yesterday in my Mailbag Article. To pile on that, his OBP is only .024 points clear of his batting average since he has only four walks, and it’s pretty darn hard to hit well above .300 if you rarely walk. And for those of you looking for a power breakout, it just ain’t gonna happen when you hit 57 percent of your balls on the ground (that number dips somewhat to 52.4 percent in his brief career, but even at that level 10 homers is the best you can expect).
Anyone besides me miss the Geto Boys?
Matt Harrison was bombed on Tuesday night allowing seven runs in just three innings. Obviously he isn’t going to pitch that badly very often, but even with that outing his ratios are still solid (3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Do I think he can keep this up? No I don’t. Maybe I’m wrong, but when a guy doesn’t strike out six batters per nine, walks more batter than the big league average (3.41 per nine), allows more homers than the big league average (1.14) and has a merely average GB/FB rate (1.29) while pitching in a home ball yard that favors hitters – I get nervous. Speaking of nervous, what in the world was Harrison scared about when he took his team photo this year? Yikes.
Josh Tomlin lovers, it’s all going to come to a crashing halt at some point. Here’s why – he’s nothing more than an average hurler. I know he is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, but there is no chance, zilch, that he can keep this going (he will not be this years Clay Buchholz). Tomlin’s K/9 rate of 5.00 is below the big league average (7.00), and the same can be said about his K/BB rate (2.14 to 2.10), HR/9 (1.00 to 1.00), and his GB/FB ratio (1.21 to 1.10). Face it everyone, he’s been all smoke and mirrors. His FIP mark tells the truth. Though his ERA is 2.33, FIP says that mark should be 4.26. I don’t know when the bottom will fall out, but it’s bound to happen sooner or later.
By Ray Flowers
Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Hanley Ramirez got traded straight up for Starlin Castro. This is vetoable correct?
– @Dorman06
I hate vetoing deals. The reason is that sometimes a team would benefit from picking up a “lesser” player in a deal. If you need steals maybe it makes sense to trade Justin Upton for Michael Bourn, even if straight up the players aren’t equal. However, deals are never done in a vacuum, so unless the deal is horrifically one-sided the best course of action is usually to just let people stupidly make bad decisions and live with them. Actually, the best course of action to avoid this issue is simply to not allow trades. That way there is no funny business going on, but most people find such leagues to be boring.
In terms of this deal, I’m going to completely reverse course. This is one of those deals that simply must be vetoed. Wind back the clock four weeks. Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall out of the top-5 in any draft, no matter what the format and Castro was lucky if he was being taken in the top-100. In each of the last four seasons Hanley has been one of the top-10 fantasy performers in the game who has averaged a 5×5 line of .319-27-83-111-36. Those numbers are Hanley’s “average” effort the past four years. Even if Castro were to maintain his current pace (.357-1-11-16-3) over 150 games this season he would end up with a 5×5 line of .357-7-75-109-20. Castro will never hit .357, but even if he does he isn’t even on pace to match a “normal” effort from Ramirez.
In this case the deal should clearly be vetoed even if Hanley is currently batting .194 with no homers.
Closers. Pick two to keep and one to shop around – Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero. Thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg
The problem with questions like this is the following – almost always the player or players you should keep are the ones that will bring the most value in a deal. Therefore, do you trade the “best” guy because he will bring the most in return or do you trade the inferior guys and get lesser players in return?
Wilson is the arm you have to keep. His 9.82 ERA is a total fluke as he’s had three poor outings. Wilson still has five saves in six chances and a strikeout per inning on the young season. He’s still working his way back to full health after being slowed by a side issue in spring, but you don’t trade the majors saves leader from the past three years (127, five more than K-Rod), unless you get a huge return.
Cordero gets saves, he’s had at least 34 in each of the past four years, but his K-rate continues to plummet. After posting a 12.22 mark in 2007 we’ve seen it dip to 9.98, 7.83, 7.31 and 7.00 this season. Given that he’s walking 4.00 batters per nine this year which would be a 4th straight year of least four, you need to realize that the end is coming. Sooner or later a pitching line like that will catch up to you.
Broxton has struggled. His fastball is three mph down from where it was in 2009 (97.8), and that is a big concern. Even more concerning is his current 6.97 K/9 mark. I have to think that is a sample size thing though – he’s never been below 10.54 per nine in his career. Even more disconcerting is his 6.10 BB/9 mark. Unless you’re Carlos Marmol you cannot have success issuing that many free passes. At the same time Broxton is still generating a solid 1.56 GB/FB mark, and there is no way in the world that batters will continue to square him up this well all year (he’s allowing a 34.3 percent line drive).
Keep Wilson and Broxton. If you tried to trade the Dodger right now you likely wouldn’t get much for him anyway as people would be fixated on his ERA (4.35) and WHIP (1.84).
Should I drop Ervin Santana for Scott Baker?
– @zaktraut
It’s so funny. It’s like people have all of a sudden discovered Baker as I’m literally getting 20 questions a day about him on Twitter. Just to prove that I’m not Johnny Come Lately with Baker, I’d point you to a piece I wrote last year in October titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought in which I suggested that everyone keep an eye on Baker in 2011. Baker has always had the skills to be an elite level performer, but he has never been able to put it all together. Will he be able to this year? That remains to be seen, but it cannot be argued that he is off to a fantastic start (3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 3.00 K/BB ).
Santana has been one of those odd every year performer (look at his win totals the last five years – 16, 7, 16, 8, 17). However, he posted a four year low in his K/9 rate (6.83) last year, continued to give up his fair share of long balls (1.09 per nine) and was hit pretty hard with a 22.1 percent line drive rate. This year he’s upped the K-rate to 7.71 while dropping his walk rate way down to 2.20 per nine, but the outward results are poor (he’s 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA). Clearly he has pitched better than the results this season. Let’s compare the two righties by looking at their career numbers.
S. Baker: 4.29 ERA,, 1.27 WHIP, 7.12 K/9, 3.36 K/BB, 0.76 GB/FB, 1.19 HR/9
Santana: 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.86 GB/FB, 1.15 HR/9
I want Baker even with the career numbers showing the matchup to be a toss up. I’ve said it before. One of these years it’s all going to come together for Baker and when it does, watch out.
Would you drop Matt Thornton or Sean Burnett for Ryan Franklin?
– @JSam85
I’ve written and talked about this many times, and I always say the same thing – give me skills over role and eventually I’ll come out ahead. With the massive changes we’ve already witnessed in the 9th inning this year, I wrote about this situation in The Closer Conundrum, it’s never been more obvious to me that my position is the right one. It may not always result in saves or me winning a league, but in the long run I’ll come out ahead more times than not, especially since we have no idea what managers will do in the 9th inning.
ROLE: Right now the pitcher to own would appear to be Burnett. Drew Storen is coming hard and appears to have pretty much locked down the 9th inning job with the Nationals, but Burnett figures to at least get some work in the 9th. Thornton was so bad early on that he’s likely nowhere near the 9th for the Sox, and with Mitchell Boggs looking strong, I wouldn’t expect to see Franklin closing games any time soon.
SKILLS: You may not want to hear it given his horrible start, but the best pitcher of this group in terms of skills is Thornton, and it’s not even up for an argument. Let’s look at each hurlers numbers since the start of the 2009 season.
Burnett: 7.68 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 6.78 H/9, 10.38 BR/9
Franklin: 5.98 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 7.86 H/9, 10.75 BR/9
Thornton: 11.28 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 7.15 H/9, 10.18 BR/9
Are you going to let 6.2 innings of poor work from Thornton wipe out three fantastic seasons (from 2007-10, amongst hurlers who tossed 200-innings Thornton was 2nd in base runners per nine innings, fourth in K/9, sixth in ERA and ninth in K/BB)? I’m not. I have no idea who will be the most valuable fantasy performer, the answer to that depends totally on whether or not each hurler’s manager allows them to pitch the 9th inning, so give me the pitcher with the best skill set – Thornton, and leave Ryan Franklin alone.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.
![[Eddie Cicotte, Chicago AL, at Polo Grounds, NY (baseball)] (LOC)](http://img.wylio.com/flickr/33328/285/3842050771 "[Eddie Cicotte, Chicago AL, at Polo Grounds, NY (baseball)] (LOC) - photo by: The Library of Congress, Source: Flickr, found with Wylio.com")
One of the most frustrating situations to deal with in the world of fantasy baseball is to accurately predict which arms will operate in the 9th inning for a club. There are locks with guys like Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Brian Wilson, but a good deal of teams either (a) don’t really know who their 9th inning arm will be or (b) don’t really have an arm that is capable of handling the role for the duration of the season. That situation has never been more acute than early in the 2011 season.
The Rays said they would roll with a committee to start the year, but Kyle Farnsworth is getting all the 9th inning work.
The Jays had a bunch of guys get hurt making the situation even more muddled. For now, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco are likely to get work in the 9th.
The Orioles say Kevin Gregg is their closer, but Koji Uehara is lurking.
The Twins started the year with Joe Nathan in the 9th, but he struggled. Matt Capps is currently their arm of choice at the end of games.
The White Sox opened the year with Matt Thornton. Unfortunately he had the worst 5-game stretch of his career opening up the year. Jesse Crain and Chris Sale have struggled at times, so now it appears Sergio Santos might get a look.
The Rangers have lost Neftali Feliz to the DL leaving things, apparently, in the hands of Darren Oliver. He has four saves in 602 career appearances.
The Mariners seem ready to demote the successful Brandon League with David Aardsma almost ready to return from hip surgery.
The Phillies started with Brad Lidge who was hurt. They then moved on to Jose Contreras who was hurt. Looks like option #3 is Ryan Madson.
The Nationals started the year giving the ball to Sean Burnett, but he really isn’t a closer. Drew Storen, the club’s closer of the future, has looked great and it appears that he is now the man.
The Braves were going to split work between Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, but it’s been all Kimbrel so far.
The Cardinals watched Ryan Franklin implode, repeatedly, before turning over the ninth to hard throwing, but inexperienced, Mitchell Boggs.
And it goes on and on, and we are talking about three weeks of games folks.
The point should be obvious – drafting relievers because of the roles they hold, and not based on the skills that they posses, is fraught with danger. Think of it. Of the 30 teams in the game a third of them have already switched things around in the ninth inning. And we see this every year. Put yourself back into your time machine and set the dial for March, 2010. Look at the following names who likely weren’t even drafted at all, or if they were selected it was only as a late round, shot in the dark, type of gamble in the last round.
Leo Nunez – 30 saves
John Axford – 24 saves
John Rauch – 20 saves
Alfredo Simon – 17 saves
Juan Gutierrez – 15 saves
Koji Uehara – 13 saves
Hong-Chih Kuo – 10 saves
There are arms every year that come totally out of nowhere – i.e. from the waiver-wire – to produce solid and sometimes difference making saves totals. 2011 will be no different pointing out, yet again, why you don’t always have to jump into the closer run on draft day. Just think if you passed on all the top closers this year and were astute about which middle relievers to roster at the end of the draft. It’s eminently conceivable that you could have ended up with Brian Fuentes (six saves), Jose Contreras (five saves), Brandon League (five saves) and Mitchell Boggs (three saves) on your roster. If you had done that you’d have rostered 19 saves for virtually nothing. What type of odds would you lay right now that 19 saves is similar to the totals you’ll likely get from guys like Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma this season?
In the end I think we need a new system to evaluate relievers. The way the system is currently set up rewards luck. Were you the first to run to the waiver wire to add Contreras when Lidge was hurt? Did you drop a quarter of your FAAB budget on Contreras only to see him come down with an injury? Were you smart enough to also add Ryan Madson? What about a guy like Mike Adams who has out pitched them all (0.82 ERA, 0.18 WHIP, 9.00 K/BB) but one who’s really not posting any fantasy value to speak of in a mixed league cause he has no saves?
My solution? I propose the fantasy game goes with Solds, a topic I discussed a year ago in Around the Horn, April 14, 2010. It’s not a perfect solution, but at least it’s a start.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Slow starts for Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez.
(2) Torii Hunter struggling as bad as Vernon Wells.
(3) Josh Beckett looking aces, just like I wrote he would be in Is Josh Beckett Finished?
(4) James Loney looks terrible.
(5) Mat Latos struggling.
(6) Brandon Wood claimed by Pirates. For more on Wood see Conspiracies and Comebacks.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Ryan Braun signs massive contract extension.
(2) Logan Morrison likely headed to the DL with a foot injury.
(3) Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel really struggling.
(4) Ryan Zimmerman (abdominal strain) unlikely to return next Tuesday.
(5) Brandon Morrow off DL – will start Saturday.
(6) Bartolo Colon looks good in first start.
(7) Willie Bloomquist starting to slow.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on Sirius 210, XM 87 (M-F, 5-8 PM EDT), Ray Flowers has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life (yep ladies, that means he is still single if you are interested). Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Daily Joust, Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
