Diamond Musings
April 6th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
You got a chance to see my beautiful mug earlier today in Around the Horn – Slow Starts . Now you’ll get a chance to also be bored by my written word.
Alex Gordon has looked great so far justifying the Royals decision to bat him third in the lineup (I still think it’s a bad idea, but for now it’s clearly working). Through that massive sample size of 24 at-bats, Gordon is hitting .375 with a 1.067 OPS as he has scored six times and knocked in three runs through five games. Have the Royals actually, inconceivably, done something right? They have have here, but…
Luke Hochevar was the #1 pick in the country in 2006, and since then he has been a monumental bust. Completely miscast as the Royals’ opening day starter, Hochevar owns a career ERA of 5.61 and a 1.46 WHP over 399.1 innings. He also owns a poor 5.97 K/9 mark and an equally unimpressive 1.95 K/BB ratio. I know the Royals took Hochevar first overall in 2006 because of cost and signability concerns about others in the draft, but look at some of the other first round arms that were taken that year: Brandon Morrow (5th overall), Clayton Kershaw (7th), Tim Lincecum (10th) and Max Scherzer (11th). Now you know why the Royals stink year after year. Let’s give them at least some credit. It’s not like the Rockies (#2 – Greg Reynolds) or Tigers (#6 – Andrew Miller) used their picks wisely either (in retrospect of course).
I got an awful lot of flack from people about having Howie Kendrick ranked so highly this year in the Baseball Guys’ Top-300. It’s only been five games of course, but early returns are very positive as he is hitting .429 with three bombs and six runs scored. He continues to fatten up against the Rays who he has absolutely demolished in his career to the tune of .443/.483/.722 slash line over 97 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 15 while scoring 20 times in those 26 games. Yowzah.
Help me out here Angels. You head into the year with Fernando Rodney as your closer. Everyone tells you it’s a bad idea, I think even the Rally Monkey could have told you that, but you pushed on anyway going with the veteran who saved 37 games in 2009 for the Tigers. So what happens? Rodney goes out and makes two appearances and loses the job? He did walk for guys in 1.1 innings, but honestly Angels, what did you expect? I simply can’t fathom why a team would bail on a player after two games. I’m sitting here castigating people for wanting to abandon ship in the fantasy game, telling them to remain patient, and you go and do this? Fantasy gamers who drop players after a week are stupid. A major league team that demotes a player after a week is monumentally misguided, and that’s being overly kind. So what happens when Peter Bourjos goes 1-for-13, will he lose his job? If Scott Downs returns from the DL and allows runs in three straight outings will he be released? I don’t see how this move helps anyone on the team – all it does is instill fear in the players that they’ll lose their job at the first sign of adversity. Jordan Walden takes over in the 9th inning by the way, and with his dominating stuff he is a must add in all leagues if he’s still sitting on the waiver-wire.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alex Gordon, Angels, Fernando Rodney, Jordan Walden, Luke Hochevar, Royals
By Jeremy on Apr 6, 2011
Ray, I need some help with a trade offer please!
10 team CBS pts league:
My Current Offense: K Suzuki/Fielder/Prado/Andrus/Philips/Hamilton/Span/Ichiro/Butler.
My Current SPs: Lester/Carpenter/Latos/Kershaw/Shields/G Gonzalez
I’ve been offered Braun & E Santana for Lester & Span. SP is very valuable in this weekly league w/ only 5 SPs. Are my SPs strong enough to deal my #1 for an elite OF in Braun? What are your thoughts on how Latos will bounce back? Thanks again.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 6, 2011
Jeremy – Braun is a massive upgrade over Span.
Certainly you lose a ton in the SP deal, but to me, you take the hitter over the pitcher nearly every time.
I’d make the deal and then look to add another pitcher after the first deal is over.
By Eric on Apr 6, 2011
Ray why do the A’s pinch hit so much for Cliff Pennington? He has to be leading the American league for being pinch hit for. Do the A’s have that little confidence in him?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 6, 2011
Eric – The truth is, Pennington isn’t a very good hitter. He is below big league average in AVG/OBP/SLG in his career. They do have better hitters on the bench. He’s just lucky none of them play shortstop.
By Brian on Apr 7, 2011
Ray – I need speed. Do i trade Gio Gonzalez for D Span or J Tabata? I was offered a choice. (BTW, i am in a 12 team league and 8 of the guys never trade so i can’t exactly see if i can get a better offer for Gio).
By Brian on Apr 7, 2011
First time visitor! You do a great job on Sirius!
12 Team H2H Mixed Points league (lose a point for K’s)
I have Kurt Suzuki but I’m thinking about dropping him for Russel Martin after his good start. What do you think? Can Martin return to his 2007 level or should I stick with Suzuki?
Thanks!
By Jeff- NNJ on Apr 7, 2011
Ray, is it worth holding onto Matusz as one of my 8 bench players (I also have Greinke taking up a spot) or should I consider dropping him for someone like Chris Young (NYM)? Other options to replace Matusz include Ian Kennedy and Zach Britton
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2011
Brian-
I like both those hitters a lot. I’m thinking 30 SBs for both, so dont make the move thinking they are going to lead you to victory on their own. I’d ask for Span who I’m slightly higher on, but they are very comparable players.
Gio I like, but I dont know if he will be any better than he was last year, might even regress a slight bit.
http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Top-300-2011-BBGuys5.pdf
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2011
Brian- Glad you found the site.
Ive gotten similar questions about Martin, and the answer is NO.
Martin has struggled for a couple of years.
The Yankees have like 4 catching options.
Martin still needs to prove he is healthy.
Suzuki is as stable as they come.
I would not make this move.
By Bill on Apr 7, 2011
Ray,
I need some help with a trade offer please!
10 team Points league:
I’ve been offered Lester & Hughes for Votto & Haren. SP is very valuable in this league. Is this deal worth doing if I Youkilis and Butler as other 1B options on my roster?
My other starters are: Kershaw, Jimenez, Latos, DeLaRosa, Matusz
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2011
Jeff- In a lg. with 8 bench spots, I’d hold on, yes. Chris Young isn’t any better bet to make 25 starts this year than Matusz. Hold on to the guy who looked great last year in the 2nd half.
Would I drop Matusz for Kennedy? If you can’t wait a month to get pitching, then yes, I’d make that move.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2011
Bill – If Lester/Hughes outperform Votto/Haren in your league – you need to get into a new league, period.
Haren is every bit the pitcher that Lester is, and Votto is a top-10 hitter whose production should dwarf that of Hughes. If your league scoring doesn’t reflect that, you need to change the rules.
No way I’d make this deal.
By Jeff- NNJ on Apr 7, 2011
Thanks Ray. Another depth question: Drop Daric Barton for Brett Wallace? Wallace got put on waivers this week
By Chad on Apr 7, 2011
Ray,
I’m loving everyone who is pressing about the 1st week of the season. In my league I have a guy that makes moves daily and is constantly looking for the next big thing, but loves older guys passed their prime thinking they will rebound. He is not happy with Cuddyer right now with his 1st 5 games. He has expressed interest in Manny. Would you trade Manny for Cuddyer?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2011
Chad – Manny for Cuddyer is something I would do. Cuddyer qualifies at multiple spots, and is pretty darn likely to get 500 ABs. What will manny do? He’s dealing with something off the field right now making me even more nervous.
It’s not a huge upside play, but it’s certainly a safe move.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2011
Jeff – Keep Barton. Great control of the strike zone and locked into an everyday job. He’s proved it – Wallace hasn’t even come close to doing that yet.
By Paul on Apr 7, 2011
Rodney… called a short leash.
Not all players would get pulled so fast from their roll.