Mailbag: April 7, 2011
April 7th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Photo by Stefanie Seskin
You asked on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, so here are my answers.
Ricky Romero – look to sell high or does he have the stuff to pitch like this all year? Not a keeper league – @brianmck558
I’m always one for selling high as it’s one of the best ways going to come out ahead in the long run. Question though – how can you sell high on a guy after one start? I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out this year. It seems like everyone playing fantasy baseball is ready to change their thoughts on every player on the diamond after a weeks worth of games. Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that we were all happy with our teams? Please give Around the Horn – Slow Starts a listen to help bring you down from the ledge.
As for Romero, like I said, I don’t know how one start will change his outlook in anyone’s eyes. He is what we thought he was. That is a stable, young hurler with a whole lot to like. In his second full season last year Romero upped his K/9 mark to 7.46, dropped his BB/9 mark to 3.51 and upped his GB/FB rate to 2.08. Add all of that together and you have a pitcher, who if anything, may have been slightly undervalued on draft day 2011.
Matt Thornton still safe for CWS? If not, whose the next in line? Chris Sale? – @atlnagel
Here we go again. Unfortunately some people will worry about their relievers now that we’ve seen the Angels totally panic with their 9th inning role (see Diamond Musings). Matt Thornton will be fine and he will hold on to the 9th inning role all year long in my opinion. For those of you who have forgotten, here is how Thornton ranks amongst all big league pitchers who have thrown 200-innings the past three years.
2nd in base runners per nine innings (9.58)
Fourth in K/9 (10.91)
Sixth in ERA (2.70)
Ninth K/BB (4.03)
I’ve said it before, but I truly think he is the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and the numbers certainly seem to support that position.
AL-only league. Should I drop Mark Buehrle for Jake Arrieta? – @canebluedevil
One of the most consist hurlers in the game, Buehrle had a rough spring and has followed that up with two less than exciting outings to start the year. Still, you know what you are going to get with him. (1) You’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s done that for 10-straight year. (2) You’ll get lots of innings as he has thrown at least 200-innings in each of the last 10 years. Moreover, Buehrle is the only pitcher in baseball who has hit both of those marks each of the past 10 years. (3) You’ll get a pitcher who is fairly certain not to hurt you in ERA (his mark has been 4.00 three of the past four years). There is no upside, but there would appear to be little downside.
Arrieta is a wild card. What happens when/if Justin Duchscherer and Brain Matusz return to action – will Arrieta hold on to his starting spot? Arrieta throws hard but his control isn’t terrific (his BB/9 rate if we combine his work at Triple-A and the majors last year was 4.26), and that doesn’t help when your off-speed stuff grades out as nothing more than average. He’s young and would seem to have the brighter future than Buehrle, but for 2011 I think the easy call is to go with the veteran lefty from Chicago.
Albert Pujols and Brett Anderson for J.P. Arencibia, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter. Who gains? – @faizalkhamisa
Arencebia is a wild card. Early reports suggest that he will start three of five games. Will that be enough to generate anything other than bottom level 2nd catcher value? Probably not. Carpenter is a stud, but is his outlook that much better than that of Anderson for 2011? Check out the numbers for the last two years.
Anderson: 7.04 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 3.36 K/BB, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Carpenter: 6.80 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
A lot closer than you thought, isn’t it?
Pujols is so good and so phenomenally consistent that I’d prefer the Pujols/Anderson side of the deal, and you know that pains me to say since I’m such a big supporter of Carl Crawford.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brett Anderson, Carl Crwaford, Chris Carpenter, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Mailbag, Mark Buerhle, Matt Thornton, Ricky Romero, Twitter
By matt on Apr 7, 2011
What do you think of Esmil Rogers. He looked good today and has nice matchups next week against the mets and cubs? Would you pick him up and start over Shields at the redsox?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 7, 2011
Matt- Talked about him a lot on the radio show today.
Kid has a big arm, gets lots of whiffs, and does a good job inducing grounders. That’s a great foundation, especially for a guy in Colorado. I worry about him making 30 starts this year, but he is looking good right now.
If you mean should you pitch him next week over Shields, that’s fine.
If you mean you have to drop Shields to add Rogers to pitch him, don’t do that.
By Brian on Apr 8, 2011
Ray – Thanks for answering my trade question yesterday regarding Gio Gonz for span or tabata. It’s been expanded now and would love your input. I give up Cano and Gio and get Kinsler, Tabata and Jordan Zimmerman. Thoughts? or Kinsler and Span for Cano. My concern is Cano was my 1st pick and is getting Kinsler (drafted beginning 4th rd)and Tabata (late rds) fair value?
Thanks Ray!
By Mark on Apr 8, 2011
Ray, again your content is top-notch, really appreciate the hard work and fantasy answers! My 35 min commute in west ‘burbs of Chicago I actually wish was a bit longer so I could absorb even more of the Fantasy Drive on XM radio too…my question for today is: Would you start Phillip Hughes at Boston tonight? Part of me is thinking the Bosox will explode tonight and coupled with Hughes last outing, spring training mixed results and loss in velocity, I’m thinking of benching him tonight. Is this over-thinking? Thanks again, enjoy your weekend!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2011
Brian – more players = more uncertainty in most cases.
If you are going to move Cano, I’d want more than kinsler. I know Ian has been great, but his injury history is a big concern.
I do like the tabata/zimmerman for gio gonzalez part though.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2011
Mark – just pull over to the side of the road and listen – I wont tell anyone.
I’m not touching hughes until I see him perform. Tough matchup, even with BoSox struggles, and his mph loss is a concern.
http://twitter.com/BaseballGuys/status/56381511355736064
By Brian on Apr 8, 2011
Ray – Took your advice and traded Gio for Span. I know how you feel about him from the radio and your email. I think i got the speed i need; now my OF is Mccutchen, Hayward, C. Young, Victorino, and Span.
Curious to know what you think of an earlier trade I made. I traded Ethier for Victorino. This was before the season started and with Cano, Texiera and Bautista in my infield I felt I needed to make a move for speed.
Thanks Ray, and great video about patience yesterday.
By Chad on Apr 8, 2011
Ray – I posted yesterday about some interest from a guy for Manny. Of course we all know what happened. Should I target Brantley, D. Brown, Franecor, or Melky? Any other players I should look at? 12 team Mixed 28 man rosters with 2 DL spots?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2011
Brian – I do like the addition of Span.
I like Ethier more than Victorino. I think he has a legit shot at .300-30-100-100 if he can stay healthy. Don’t get me wrong I like Victorino too, he doesn’t get nearly enough love. A comparison between the two is probably much closer than most people would lead you to believe.
Glad you enjoyed the video too.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2011
Chad – Yeah, crazy with Manny. No idea what that idiot was thinking.
I dont like any of those options you mentioned. There has to be better on the wire in a 12 team league. If you had to pick one right now take melky, but you need more from that spot.