Mailbag: April 19, 2011
April 19th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Photo by Scott Ableman
Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
I have one roster spot to speculate saves. In order please rank Mitchell Boggs, Sergio Santos and Drew Storen?
– @5wallace
Ever get the feeling that you’re Bill Murray in Groundhog Day? You remember the movie where Murray is forced to live the same day over and over again, right? I ask because I’ve literally answered questions about Boggs and Santos for days now, and no matter how many times I do, someone always asks again 30 minutes later. I’m tempted to say this is to be the definitive answer and never address it again… we’ll see.
A review of the White Sox bullpen
Matt Thornton: 0-2, 4 BS, 7.94 ERA, 2.82 WHIP
Chris Sale: 2-0, 1 BS, 7.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
Jesse Crain: 0-1, 0 BS, 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
Sergio Santos: 0-0, 0 BS, 0.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Thornton still has an elite arm, but he’s been awful this year. When a guy starts out this bad it’s nearly impossible for his manager to turn back to him in the 9th unless everyone else fails.
Sale has a terrific 9:1 K/BB ratio right now, but he’s given up 11 hits in 7.1 innings and has a scant 30.2 innings in his big league career. Don’t forget, the future for this guy long-term is in the rotation.
Crain is a solid big league hurler who owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 390.1 innings, but he also has only three saves in 382 appearances.
Santos is pitching the best of any arm in the bullpen. Batters are hitting only .167 off him, and he has 11 Ks in just 8.2 innings.
A review of the Cardinals’ bullpen
Ryan Franklin: 0-2, 4 BS, 11.57 ERA, 2.14 WHIP
Jason Motte: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Trevor Miller: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Miguel Batista: 1-0, 0 BS, 1.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Eduardo Sanchez: 8 Ks in 3 IP
Mitchell Boggs: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.00 ERA, 0.67
Unlike Thornton, Franklin doesn’t own the considerable skills normally associated with locking down the 9th inning (despite his success the last two years). I had no faith in Franklin three weeks ago, and even less in him now.
Motte, thought of as the closer of the future, has struggled with locating his pitches. He’s also been unable to put away batters with only three punchouts in seven innings. He just isn’t “right” at the moment.
Miller has looked solid, but he is a lefty matchup pitcher, not a 9th inning option.
Batista is old, no good and has all of four saves the past five years. If the Cards turn to him, boy are they desperate.
Sanchez has looked phenomenal in his three innings. Still, Tony La Russa rarely relies on rookies late in games.
Boggs has looked terrific thus far with an impressive 12.00 K/9 mark and a 4.00 K/BB ratio through six appearances.
A review of the Nationals’ bullpen
Sean Burnett: 0-0, 1 BS, 2.35 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Tyler Clippard: 0-0, 2 BS, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Drew Storen: 1-1, 0 BS, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
Burnett has done nothing to lose work in the ninth inning, and he has three of the teams four saves. However he’s a lefty, and teams usually try to avoid portsiders in the 9th.
Clippard has an impressive 13 Ks in 11 innings over nine appearances. He can go more than an inning at at time which likely means he’ll continue to function in a setup role.
Storen is the closer of the future for the Nats, and he has looked really good since the bright lights of the regular season turned on. I’m still fully confident that he will end the year as the team leader in saves.
If I was choosing between the three arms I’d align them Storen, Boggs and Santos.
Do you think Howie Kendrick will continue to hit for the power he has shown so far this year?
– @cliffbeach21
It ain’t gonna happen. The past two years Kendrick has hit 10 homers each campaign making his five homers in 16 at-bats this season a shocking development. All you need to know about what is going on here is to look at his HR/F category. In his career he is a slightly below big league average producer with a 7.9 percent mark. This year that mark is up over 35 percent. There’s no chance that will continue – zilch (to compare, Ryan Howard’s career mark is 29.5 percent). With his hot start 20 homers is possible, but thinking 15 is still a safer bet.
Mike Leake still rosterable in leagues that penalize caught stealing?
– @jeffonsports
How could I not post this question in my article? I’d suggest that you check to see if your league counts caught stealing on the same level as dollars. If so, his theft of nearly $60 dollars worth of clothes could create a hole he would be unable to recovery from.
Dan Haren for Jay Bruce- who is the better fantasy player for the rest of the year?
– @jabisamra
When you go to the store to buy a TV do you spend $1000 on that 50 inch plasma television you know will deliver solid quality since you’ve had a plasma for a decade, or do you go for the new technology and spend $1700 on a similarly equipped LCD television? That’s kind of like what is going on here.
Dan Haren is an ace – period. He’s off to a tremendous start yet again this year with a 4-0 record, 1.16 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 13.50 K/BB ratio through five appearances. Far from an April surger who doesn’t have a track record, this guy has been a star for years. From 2005-10 Haren is first in baseball with 203 starts, second in innings pitched (1,343, eight behind CC Sabathia), third in strikeouts (1,176) and tied for sixth in wins (85). There may not be a more stable arm in the game.
Bruce was a superstar at the end of last year hitting .306 with 15 homers over his last 58 games causing many to go all-in at the draft table this year. So far that bet hasn’t been rewarded with performance on the field as Bruce has managed to hit a .268 with two homers and six RBI in 14 games. He’s also continued a troubling trend in his young career – a propensity to rack up strikeouts quickly. Owner of a career strikeout rate of 25.6 percent, Bruce has performed even worse this year with a 32.1 percent mark. He’s also hit far too many balls into the air with a scary 59 percent fly ball are. Most seem to have also forgotten that coming into the year that Bruce had 12 steals and 13 caught stealing, and in more than 1,300 big league at-bats he has hit just .257 so there are plenty of warts with this youngster.
Bruce still has plenty of time to post that 30-100 season many thought was coming this year, but I’m much less certain about his 2011 outlook than I’m with the ultra consistent Haren who just keeps on doing it year after year. Take Haren.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Bullpens, Cardinals, Dan Haren, Howie Kendrick, Jay Bruce, Mailbag, Mitchell Boggs, Sergio Santos, White Sox
By BradChatham727 on Apr 19, 2011
Ive been offered King Felix for Tim Hudson and Konerko. I should take that in a heartbeat right?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 19, 2011
Brad – King Felix is a dynamic option, but you are giving up lots of skill to get him. Hudson is a rock, and though not likely to repeat last years efforts, he’s still solid. Konerko – not likely to match last year either, but .280-30-100 is certainly doable.
If you have depth on your side make the move for sure, but make sure you got a nice bat to slot in for Konerko.
By Brian on Apr 20, 2011
A week after I traded for Denard Span i traded him and Mccutchen for Crawford. Did I give up too much or make a good deal? I have options of Brantley, D Murphy, and M Moreland on my bench to take Span’s spot in my OF.
Also, would you do Scherzer and L Nunez for Greinke (I’d get Greinke)?
As always, I value your opinion… Thanks
By Steve on Apr 20, 2011
Ray
Looking for a fill in for VMart. Hundley, Posada, Ruiz, Suzuki available on waivers. Your thoughts?
Thanks
By Rob on Apr 20, 2011
Hi Ray,
I have Kennedy starting tonight against the Reds. He was solid in his start against them earlier this season but he just gave up 9 runs in 3 IP to the Cards. Is he a risk tonight or do you see him bouncing back? Was that last game just a fluke or can I expect more games like it from him this season? Thanks, Ray!
By Steve on Apr 20, 2011
Ray
One more. I’ve been offered HRam and Dunn for Kemp in another league. I currently have Drew at SS and am strong with my other OFs. I think this is the year for Kemp and I’m not sure this trade really helps. But I hate to pass on Hanley. As always, your insight is a great help. Thanks
By Bobby on Apr 20, 2011
Hello Ray.
I have 3 things to say to you today.
SHARKS SHARKS SHARKS!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 20, 2011
Bobby- AMAZING. Thought they had a chance at 4-2. Thought they blew it at 5-3. Did a fist pump and yell at 6-5. Amazing…
By Ray Flowers on Apr 20, 2011
Brian – I love Crawford, but that’s too much to give up in my mind unless you have a really strong outfield. Look at your replacements – Murphy should be fine for six weeks, but when Hamilton returns —
Keep Scherzer and Nunez. The time to trade for Greinke was 4 weeks ago when he was hurt. Now you’ll have to pay full price.
Take a look at my top-100 for SPs – you’ll see just how much you’d be overpaying by tossing in a guy who could get 30 saves.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/10/top-100-starting-pitchers/
By Ray Flowers on Apr 20, 2011
Steve – Why does no one like Ruiz? I still don’t get it. The guy led the Phillies in AVG and OBP last year, and was third amongst all catchers in OPS. He doesn’t have the power of others, but the guy is really stable.
Same can be said about Suzuki. I have NO idea why so many people are bailing on him after two weeks.
Add, in order, Suzuki and Ruiz.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 20, 2011
Rob – worst thing in fantasy is a starting pitcher getting blown up. If you are unsure, sit the guy. So you lose a 7 IP 2 ER outing… that’s bad BUT a 4 inning 7 ER outing is horrendous.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 20, 2011
Steve – I think this is the year for Kemp too. I said he was my 30/30 guy this year back 2 months ago. Still, HanRam should also do that , and he is a shortstop.
Throw in the 35 HR lock of Dunn and you simply have to do this deal.
By Rob on Apr 20, 2011
Thanks, Ray. Hey, Wandy just got dumped to waivers. Would you drop Kennedy, E-Jackson, E-Volquez to scoop him up?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 20, 2011
Rob – Drop Volquez to get Wandy. Similar pitchers, but I have more faith in Wandy.
By Carl on Apr 20, 2011
Are Hank Conger and Mark Trumbo viable options in 10 or 12 team mixed leagues? I have a need at Catcher with V-Mart out and CI with Zimmerman out.
By Steve on Apr 20, 2011
Ray
Picked up Suzuki and made the deal.
Kemp, Walker, and Gio for Hanley, Dunn and Latos.
Thanks for the advice.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 20, 2011
Carl – With Morales likely back within a couple of weeks, I just don’t know where Trumbo will play. He’s not an option in 10 team for sure, and a stretch in 12 teams as ell.
Congar ONLY an option in leagues that start two catchers. Even then, he’s a stretch in a 10 team lg. for now.
By brad on Apr 20, 2011
do you think price and figgins is enough for drew stubbs?
also
cole hamels alverez and wells for swisher hafner and coghlan
not sure if i like either may just settle on
danks and ordonez for buerle and kubel
let me know your thoughts on trades
thanks
By John on Apr 20, 2011
Ray,
I’m in a ten team, 5×5 roto. Been offered Scherzer and Markakis (i’m getting) for Bautista. I’m strong in outfield and third base but a little weak in pitching.
Thanks for all you do.
By Brian on Apr 21, 2011
Ray – To follow-up on your response, I traded McCutchen and Span for Crawford because I felt I had the OF depth. My other 4 OF’s are Heyward, C Young, Victorino, and Murphy/Brantley/Moreland combo. Now add Crawford to that mix. As much as I liked Mccutchen he doesn’t hit for high average and Crawford usually around .300.
By Carl on Apr 21, 2011
Would you trade Nolasco for a mid tier closer, or would you hope for more of a Mariano, Bell, Soria type for him? I have tons of extra starters and need a closer.
By Carl on Apr 21, 2011
One other- I would trade Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Lee, and Lindstrom for MccCutchen, Lind, and Bell.
I need saves not holds, so Bell is huge. I have Callaspo at 3B which might be an issue. McCutchen would be slotted in Utility and Lind/Cuddyer would be in my CI spot instead of Carlos Lee.
By El Burro on Apr 21, 2011
Ray-
First post on your site, so wanted to cover a few things 1st, the stroke —Wanted to let you know that I really like the next level content here and being an avid fantasy baseball geek the past 8 years, I appreciate the way you look at things and breakdown the sabremetric side of each player. I know it’s time consuming, but it adds a lot of validity and keeps me reading. In addition, I listen to you, Kyle and Kay Adams during my often hellish traffic jams around Los Angeles. Keep up the insight – and solid takes.
2nd, some questions –
Ive been lucky enough to win my 14 team h2h mixed 6×6 (ops + holds), non keeper league (with no innings cap nor moves cap) 4 of the last 5 years due in large part to the attention I pay to middle relievers. A little background on the league. Deep 30 man rosters and on the pitching side of the equation we start 12 guys (4 SP + 2 RP + 6 P) so there is a lot of freedom to structure your lineup however you deem for a particular week….
Currently, my arms consist of the following:
Gallardo, Oswalt, Hudson, Chacin, Pineda, Kennedy, Norris, J. Santana
By El Burro on Apr 21, 2011
and Tim Stauffer for my SP
And the RP consists of:
Mike Adams, Benoit, Burnett, David Hernandez, Eduardo Sanchez, Chris sale, kenley Jansen. Sale and Jansen are on the pine currently ( it’s a weekly league)
I usually don’t draft closers high and this year, ended up punting saves all together. Figure some of my MR guys will turn closer and because we play with holds – closers aren’t valued s high. Normally, I like to stock pile high k/9 hold guys that give me good whip and era peripherals – but wanted your opinion on some MR arms you like in deep mixed leagues. here are some available names in a very thin FA pool that I like for one reason or the other. Which, if any, do u like and how do you rank them respectively:
Zach Braddock
Tim Collins
Ernesto Frieri
Edward Mujica
Antonio Bastardo
Brian Sanches
Darren O’Day
Octavio Dotel
Jake McGee
Taylor Bucholz
Jason Frasor
Bobby Parnell
Thx and sorry for the long post. Just figured it was better to give you more info than not.
Thx,
el burro
Ryan Webb
By Ray Flowers on Apr 21, 2011
Brad – (1) Price/Figgins for Stubbs. If you need speed and SP, then deal is fair. Figgins also has the benefit of playing at two spots, so that versatility is nice.
(2) Hamels/Alvarez/Wells is the side you want. Swisher is solid, as is Coghlan, but Hamels is elite and Alvarez should still be fine. Plus, I dont trust Hafner, esp. as UT only player.
(3) I’d prefer Danks and Mags. I know Mags is in an out, but Danks is such a rock and a much better option than Buehrle.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 21, 2011
John – Markakis will match Bautista in steals, and best him in average. Of course he gives up power, but he isn’t a bad player at all. Scherzer could be an elite option if everything breaks right. Given your stated weakness at SP, go ahead and pull the trigger.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 21, 2011
Brain – Still a lot to give up. McCutchen does indeed hit for average. First two seasons for Crawford he hit .259 and .281. First two years of McC = .286, .286.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 21, 2011
Carl – No one is going to trade you an elite closer for Nolasco. People look at his last two years and see that high ERA and will likely pass.
As for your trade – Lindstrom has no value at all. if you can convince someone that he does, then more power to you. If you need svs then pull the trigger, though as you stated, if you do the deal, you’ll need to beef up 3B.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 21, 2011
El Borro – Thanks for the kind words. I try to give a little bit of everything in my analysis without it sounding like a science class.
Parnell – if healthy – interests me. He has a big arm and could step in to the 9th if the mets trade krod or if they decide to limit his 9th inning work to make sure he doesn’t activate his huge contract for 2012.
McGee – a young kid with a great arm. I have a hard time believing that Farnsworth is going to last the year as the Rays closer, and I know Peralta is there and Howell coming back, but really like McGee’s arm.
Mujica – the other arm I really like.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/02/04/radiant-relievers/
Hope that helps.
By El Burro on Apr 21, 2011
Thanks.
I had Parnell th first 2 weeks it was painful. I don think he’s being nabbed by anyone right now, so will just watch.
As for McGee, he was dropped and cleared waivers in my league 2 days ago. I agree with u on the arm and intrigue, but I’m treading cautiously cause of the division, inexperience and Peralta and Howells presence. Madden seems to not trust him or is easing him in very very slowly as evidenced by the IP to date, no?
Being a Padres fan (as painful as that is) I’m aware of Mujica. He was ridiculous last year especially his WHIP. I need to watch more marlins famed to see how they’re deploying that en ( which is very under-rated) with Sanches, Mujica, Webb and Hensley (3 former padres). I know Hensley is in the 8th but not sure who has the 7th. Do u know?
I love Frieri too in SD. I know he’s a bit buried in that SD pen, but I encourage you to watch him and let me know your thoughts.
Thx