The Closer Conundrum
April 25th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |![[Eddie Cicotte, Chicago AL, at Polo Grounds, NY (baseball)] (LOC)](http://img.wylio.com/flickr/33328/285/3842050771 "[Eddie Cicotte, Chicago AL, at Polo Grounds, NY (baseball)] (LOC) - photo by: The Library of Congress, Source: Flickr, found with Wylio.com")
One of the most frustrating situations to deal with in the world of fantasy baseball is to accurately predict which arms will operate in the 9th inning for a club. There are locks with guys like Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Brian Wilson, but a good deal of teams either (a) don’t really know who their 9th inning arm will be or (b) don’t really have an arm that is capable of handling the role for the duration of the season. That situation has never been more acute than early in the 2011 season.
The Rays said they would roll with a committee to start the year, but Kyle Farnsworth is getting all the 9th inning work.
The Jays had a bunch of guys get hurt making the situation even more muddled. For now, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco are likely to get work in the 9th.
The Orioles say Kevin Gregg is their closer, but Koji Uehara is lurking.
The Twins started the year with Joe Nathan in the 9th, but he struggled. Matt Capps is currently their arm of choice at the end of games.
The White Sox opened the year with Matt Thornton. Unfortunately he had the worst 5-game stretch of his career opening up the year. Jesse Crain and Chris Sale have struggled at times, so now it appears Sergio Santos might get a look.
The Rangers have lost Neftali Feliz to the DL leaving things, apparently, in the hands of Darren Oliver. He has four saves in 602 career appearances.
The Mariners seem ready to demote the successful Brandon League with David Aardsma almost ready to return from hip surgery.
The Phillies started with Brad Lidge who was hurt. They then moved on to Jose Contreras who was hurt. Looks like option #3 is Ryan Madson.
The Nationals started the year giving the ball to Sean Burnett, but he really isn’t a closer. Drew Storen, the club’s closer of the future, has looked great and it appears that he is now the man.
The Braves were going to split work between Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, but it’s been all Kimbrel so far.
The Cardinals watched Ryan Franklin implode, repeatedly, before turning over the ninth to hard throwing, but inexperienced, Mitchell Boggs.
And it goes on and on, and we are talking about three weeks of games folks.
The point should be obvious – drafting relievers because of the roles they hold, and not based on the skills that they posses, is fraught with danger. Think of it. Of the 30 teams in the game a third of them have already switched things around in the ninth inning. And we see this every year. Put yourself back into your time machine and set the dial for March, 2010. Look at the following names who likely weren’t even drafted at all, or if they were selected it was only as a late round, shot in the dark, type of gamble in the last round.
Leo Nunez – 30 saves
John Axford – 24 saves
John Rauch – 20 saves
Alfredo Simon – 17 saves
Juan Gutierrez – 15 saves
Koji Uehara – 13 saves
Hong-Chih Kuo – 10 saves
There are arms every year that come totally out of nowhere – i.e. from the waiver-wire – to produce solid and sometimes difference making saves totals. 2011 will be no different pointing out, yet again, why you don’t always have to jump into the closer run on draft day. Just think if you passed on all the top closers this year and were astute about which middle relievers to roster at the end of the draft. It’s eminently conceivable that you could have ended up with Brian Fuentes (six saves), Jose Contreras (five saves), Brandon League (five saves) and Mitchell Boggs (three saves) on your roster. If you had done that you’d have rostered 19 saves for virtually nothing. What type of odds would you lay right now that 19 saves is similar to the totals you’ll likely get from guys like Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma this season?
In the end I think we need a new system to evaluate relievers. The way the system is currently set up rewards luck. Were you the first to run to the waiver wire to add Contreras when Lidge was hurt? Did you drop a quarter of your FAAB budget on Contreras only to see him come down with an injury? Were you smart enough to also add Ryan Madson? What about a guy like Mike Adams who has out pitched them all (0.82 ERA, 0.18 WHIP, 9.00 K/BB) but one who’s really not posting any fantasy value to speak of in a mixed league cause he has no saves?
My solution? I propose the fantasy game goes with Solds, a topic I discussed a year ago in Around the Horn, April 14, 2010. It’s not a perfect solution, but at least it’s a start.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brandon League, Closers, Darren Oliver, Drew Storen, holds, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Capps, Mitchell Boggs, Ryan Madson, Saves, Sergio Santos, Solds
By Brian on Apr 25, 2011
Ray, Couple weeks ago I asked you if I should go with Russel Martin over Kurt Suzuki and you told me NO! Martin is now the number 1 catcher in the league and Suzuki is barely in the top 20. Tell me why I should stick with Suzuki going forward. Has he been unlucky or is this all the production I can expect out of him?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 25, 2011
Brian – Here’s the deal. Martin has exceeded expectations, Suzuki has underwhelmed. No two ways around that.
Last 3 years-
Suzuki: .266-12-67-61-4
Martin: .261-8-49-65-12
Close.
However, last two years-
Suzuki: .259-14-80-65-6
Martin: .249-6-55-52-9
Huge difference.
With Martin coming off surgery, suffering setbacks in camp, and the presence of Jesus Montero, there was/is a lot going against him.
I’m not going to say Martin won’t outperform Suzuki, but I need to see more than a good three weeks to make that call.
By ChampionRoss on Apr 25, 2011
Excellent post Ray. This is exactly why I start with a base of two full time closers and patch the rest in with the revolving door of temporary closers every year. You might not ever lead your league in saves with this strategy but the point is to get enough saves to be competitive and spend more of your budget on big bats.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 25, 2011
ChampionRoss- Thanks for that Ross. Yep, not a bad strategy at all. Glad you enjoyed the article.
By Rob on Apr 26, 2011
Hi Ray,
How do you feel about Mets’ Chris Young coming off the DL and starting tonight against the Nats? Take the chance or not worth the risk? I could use his two starts this week, if they’re quality ones.
Thanks!
By Paul on Apr 26, 2011
I’ve had a few trade offers that seem to get clouded with a combination of SP and offense. The latest is Werth/Niese for Coghlan/Chacin in an NL only league. How should I approach these types of trades? Thanks for your advice.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2011
Paul- No trades are done in a bubble. In fact, there are times when it might make sense to take the “lesser” player in a deal (i.e. if you need steals, maybe you make a move for a guy who only gives you speed while giving up a guy who is a big power bat). It’s all about the fit for your team really. I can tell you Player A is better than Player B, but maybe the way your team is put together you’d be better off with Player B (whether you win a category by 1 or 28, you still get the same amount of pts).
In your case—
Chacin has more upside than Niese, but Niese is still a solid hurler.
Coghlan is likely to hit for a higher average than Werth, but Werth will hit more homers, and produce more RBI. It also wouldn’t be surprising if Werth steals more bases.
I would prefer Werth and Niese, even with the struggles that Werth has show this season.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2011
Rob – I hardly ever start a pitcher who is coming off the DL in their first start. A guy like Young who isn’t likely to go more than 5 or 6 innings anyway, I’d simply pass. I’m not going to risk it, I just have no idea if the guy is healthy or not.
By Rob on Apr 26, 2011
You’re right, thanks. Other potential streamers tonight are Britton v. Boston and Liriano v. Tampa Bay. Do you like either one of these guys enough to pick up and stream in?
By Mark on Apr 26, 2011
Hi Ray, again, your info on both XM and this website is the leader in fantasy sports information, thanks for your hard work! I am in a 12 team mixed, 5×5 league and somebody recently dropped Joe Nathan, Matt Thornton and Brandon League. I have a few slots available to pick up one or more of these guys and wanted your opinion if a) any of them you believe will regain their role and b) if they’re roster-worthy period at this time. Thanks again, really appreciate your input. I would not be dropping valuable commodities to pick them up either. Thanks.
By Rob on Apr 26, 2011
Or Coke v. Mariners (they seem to be at the bottom of everyone’s power rankings right now). King Felix on the mound for them makes me hesitate on Coke though.
Britton v Boston
Liriano v Tampa
Coke v Seattle
One worth picking up for today’s start?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2011
Rob – I don’t like to stream guys, tough to come out ahead in the long run. Not start Britton against BOS, and Liriano has been all over the map this year so he is a risk too.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2011
Mark – I do my best buddy, glad it is well received.
See : http://baseballguys.com/2011/04/26/mailbag-april-26-2011/
I think all three can be rostered in 12 teamers. Nathan will be the closer at some point for Twins. I’m not a huge Aardsma fan, so League has some value. Thornton still a stud, even with an atrocious week on his resume.
For now, League figures to get saves, so short term he’s the best option.
Nathan could close all second half, if not more, so he’s worth an add if you have room.
Thornton still has amazing skills even with his struggles.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2011
Rob – Coke isn’t a very good hurler despite early season success. The Mariners stink on offense though, so if you are going to go with one one guy with Coke, though I don’t have much hope for a great effort.
By Jeff on Apr 26, 2011
After tonights game against Baltimore, I have had enough of Buchholz. I was thinking about picking up Brandon McCarthy but Wade Davis, Brian Duensing, Jodan Zimmermann, Mitch Talbot, Dallas Braden and Anibal Sanchez are still out there.
It is a 5×5 roto. (era, whip, sv, k, w-l)
By Bob on Apr 26, 2011
Ray and my Flyers win… They may need to bring Bernie Parent back…….
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2011
Bob – Maybe Bobby Clarke can strap em’ on too.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 26, 2011
Jeff – I was never a fan of Buchholz, told everyone to be careful. My thoughts.
Best arm – Jordan Zimmerman.
Best pitcher – Brandon McCarthy.
Most likely to be injured – Sanchez/McCarthy.
Smoke and mirrors – Davis (10 Ks first four starts?).
I’d add McCarthy if you dont mind having to replace him when hurt. If that bothers you, grab the upside arm of Zimmerman.
By John Tupa on Apr 27, 2011
Hey Ray, love your work, you are a true artist. Would you drop any of these pitchers for McCarthy? Kyle Drabek, Beachy, Josh Tomlin(I really like this guy), Zach Britton or even Tommy Hanson? I also have Morrow, Kennedy, CJ, and AJ Burnett. Thanks Ray!
By Jeff on Apr 27, 2011
Would Madison Bumgarner be a good pick up for his next 2 games? Pitt with McDonald pitching and Wash with Gorzelanny.
By Matt on Apr 27, 2011
Is Torii Hunter dropable? I know he hit well last night, but I’m worried about his age, declining production, and the fact that he’s usually a quick starter who fades at the end of the season.
Also, I’m thinking about picking up Rajai Davis as his replacement. I need steals. Thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2011
John – No one has ever compared me to Picasso before, but I’ll take it. j/k
Tomlin, despite being your guy, is the on here that I would drop.
5.0 K/9 = big lg average is 7.0
2.14 K/BB = big lg avg is 2.10
HR/9 1.00 = big lg 1.10
GB/FB 1.21 = bg lg avg 1.10
Simply put, he is nothing more than average, and his current ERA and WHIP are gonna get beat up. In fact, his 2.33 ERA will likely rise by a couple of runs, so he’d be the one I would move. Trade him first, then get McCarthy.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2011
Jeff – Bumgarner has struggled so far. I would hesitate to use him even in the right matchups until he proves his worth. He needs to start throwing more strikes. If it was me, I’d sit on him until he shows it on the hill, but I dont doubt that he eventually will.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2011
Matt – Davis is a great add if you needs speed of course.
At the same time, dropping Hunter seems rash. I know he has been terrible, but the guy has been a solid performer for a decade. Sure he is aging, and that is a concern, but I’m not going to drop a guy with his track record because he had a rough three weeks.
By John Tupa on Apr 27, 2011
Ok, thanks for the advice on the pitcher…last question…we are in a 12 team H2H league and someone dropped Vernon Wells. I have Coughlan, Bruce and Kemp in my outfield. Would you drop one of them for Wells? Coughlan has a nice OBP and is considered by some to be the next Nick Johnson, but with some pop. Your thoughts…
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2011
John – Coghlan is a nice bat. The issue is, his position. If he was in the infield his fantasy outlook would look a lot better. As an outfielder who is likely to hit 10-15 homers and steal 10 bases, he just doesn’t have that much value. I’m not saying that he won’t be a very good player for a long period of time, but I have a hard time envisioning how he will ever be more than a 4th OF in a 12 team mixed league that starts 5 OFs.
In terms of potential impact Wells would be rated higher. The safe play might be Coghlan, but I’d certainly be tempted to add Wells.
By Bob on Apr 27, 2011
Hey Ray. When do you think is the earliest we could look for Anthony Rizzo or Brett Jackson to be called up? I would think the Padres are tempted now but I also think they are perpetually rebuilding and would be afraid to start the free agent clock. Still, he’s batting like .450 with 7 HR last I looked….
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2011
Bob – Barring something unforseen at the big league level, most teams do not like to call up rookies prior to June. That way they can forestall the start of arbitration for the players.
By Bob on Apr 27, 2011
Hello Ray.
I am in 10 team 5×5 Roto league My O.F is STUBBS,RIOS,WERTH,SWISHER,DELMON YOUNG,A PAGEN.
outside of Stubbs they are all struggling whats your outlook as i start 3 and use 1 in util.
Keep up the great work… Thank you
By Ray Flowers on Apr 28, 2011
Bob- its a solid unit. You have been hosed by poor performance an injury. Think of it this way. All but stubbs and pagan have proven track records. If you can weather the storm now you should be humming in the second half. I don’t doubt that you’ll get good production if you remain on course.
By John Tupa on Apr 28, 2011
Hey Ray…Thought I’d pick your brain one more time. Jeremy Hellickson has been droppped in our league. Should I pick him up over one of these guys? Keep in mind that Tomlin is my boy.
JK…I am in a 12 team H2H, 10 pitching start limit.
AJ, Tommy Hanson, CJ Wilson, Ian Kennedy, Brandon Morrow, Zach Britton, Beachy,and Drabek & Tomlin.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 28, 2011
John – I think you have to go with Hellickson over Tomlin. Simply – he’s got better skills. Over the long haul, that will almost always win out.
By Chad on Apr 28, 2011
Ray- What’s your take on Gallardo? Will he get back to usual form?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 28, 2011
Chad – it’s only been a sixth of the season. Gallardo is always all over the map, just how he is unfortunately. Continue to remain patient. See – http://baseballguys.com/2011/04/28/around-the-horn-april-28-2011/