Early Season Surgers
April 27th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Kay Adams, Kyle Elfrink and I had a big time debate yesterday on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. about Jose Bautista. My position was, as you probably expect, that I just don’t understand how he’s doing what he’s doing. Bautista leads the AL in average (.362), homers (eight), OBP (.522), SLG (.783) and OPS (1.304). How do people not see the utter folly in expecting him to continue along at this pace?
Let’s compare his current pace to his carer best numbers.
Average: .260 (career .247)
OBP: .378 (career .349)
SLG: .617 (career .462)
OPS: .995 (career .810)
Last year was totally ridiculous, you have to see that, but what he is doing this year is insane. I don’t care how he changed his swing, this guy simply isn’t Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols. How about some historical perspective. Do you know how many players have back-to-back 50 homer seasons? The answer is five guys – Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Babe Ruth. Even the most ardent fans of Bautista know that he doesn’t belong in that group, not even close. Beyond the homers, something everyone is simply missing completely here, is that Bautista has never, not once, hit even .265 in the big leagues. If he were to finish this year hitting .290 (there is no way he will if you ask me), and if he were to have 569 at-bats this year (his total from last year), we’re talking about a guy who will hit .280 the rest of the way. Again, given that he has never hit even .265 in a season, do you really think even that modest projection is likely?
Let me bash Starlin Castro for a moment. Will he one day be a top-5 shortstop? I don’t doubt that at all. Can he do it as a 21 year old this season? Even with his hot start (.350-1-11-17-4) I really question whether it’s possible. I touched on Castro yesterday in my Mailbag Article. To pile on that, his OBP is only .024 points clear of his batting average since he has only four walks, and it’s pretty darn hard to hit well above .300 if you rarely walk. And for those of you looking for a power breakout, it just ain’t gonna happen when you hit 57 percent of your balls on the ground (that number dips somewhat to 52.4 percent in his brief career, but even at that level 10 homers is the best you can expect).
Anyone besides me miss the Geto Boys?
Matt Harrison was bombed on Tuesday night allowing seven runs in just three innings. Obviously he isn’t going to pitch that badly very often, but even with that outing his ratios are still solid (3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Do I think he can keep this up? No I don’t. Maybe I’m wrong, but when a guy doesn’t strike out six batters per nine, walks more batter than the big league average (3.41 per nine), allows more homers than the big league average (1.14) and has a merely average GB/FB rate (1.29) while pitching in a home ball yard that favors hitters – I get nervous. Speaking of nervous, what in the world was Harrison scared about when he took his team photo this year? Yikes.
Josh Tomlin lovers, it’s all going to come to a crashing halt at some point. Here’s why – he’s nothing more than an average hurler. I know he is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, but there is no chance, zilch, that he can keep this going (he will not be this years Clay Buchholz). Tomlin’s K/9 rate of 5.00 is below the big league average (7.00), and the same can be said about his K/BB rate (2.14 to 2.10), HR/9 (1.00 to 1.00), and his GB/FB ratio (1.21 to 1.10). Face it everyone, he’s been all smoke and mirrors. His FIP mark tells the truth. Though his ERA is 2.33, FIP says that mark should be 4.26. I don’t know when the bottom will fall out, but it’s bound to happen sooner or later.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Geto Boys, Jose Bautista, Josh Tomlin, Matt Harrison, Starling Castro
By Dennis on Apr 27, 2011
Hi Ray,
Saw a question from someone yesterday about the make up of their pitching staff and I am wondering about my own staff. 5×5 mixed league, 11 teams. I have Marcum, Colby Lewis, Wandy, Scott Baker, Ian Kennedy, Hellickson, Gavin Floyd, Shields and Travis Wood. Relievers are Valverde, Putz and Wlden. No true ace but a solid group of 2′s, 3′s, 4′s and a few upside guys. I could grab any of the following from waivers: Niese, Beachy, McClellan, Bud Norris. Any of those guys look better than what I have? I think Colby Lewis deserves some slack and I can keep him on the bench for a few weeks so I am thinking I am okay. With a strong offense I am currently in first and feel good on that side of the ledger.
Thanks,
Dennis
By Tom on Apr 27, 2011
Regarding Bautista, granted he won’t hit .3xx (at least incredibly unlikely), but there is reason to believe the power/eye are legit. A change in a swing or a step can cause someone like Jeter to go from a .300 hitter to a .270 hitter. The same can be said for pull-hitting power hitters. Even as a prospect he was said to possess power potential but had never truly tapped into it. Making a few changes at the dish in addition to the renewed interest in patience let’s him club the ball fairly easily. Will he best his 2010 season? Yes and no. He will not hit more hrs/rbi. But he can best his avg/obp/runs/sb to become a bit more well-rounded. ZIPS is projecting 15.5% walk rate here on out. I’m thinking it will be 16-17% based on how they are pitching around him so obviously (could be 18%). So even with regression in avg (say hits .260-.270 rest of year), he can still work with an OBP around .400. With his highest speed score to date, 10 SB aren’t out of the question. So with a season total boost in obp of 20pts+ and a few more SB over last year, he could/should finish with 110+ runs. Even with regression in power, 40+ hr is likely as well. So if the season line sits around 112-42-102-10-.275-.410, he will have put together a top-10 or so line give or take. And that is assuming major regression. The upside to that line (however unrealistic) is probably 125-45-110-10-.290-.430.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2011
Dennis – Agreed. Keep Lewis on the bench and give him some time to figure things out. As for the arms on the waiver wire, I don’t see anyone there that I would add if I had to lose someone already on your roster. Probably best for you to just stand pat.
By Ray Flowers on Apr 27, 2011
Tom – A very well thought out, cogent defense of Bautista. I cannot say that I agree with everything you wrote, but I will say it’s nice to see someone spend some serious thought trying to lay out a logical line of thought for the guy vs. people just saying ‘Bautista is great, yah.’
As we talked about on the show yesterday, I find it impossible to think that a slight mechanical tweak took him from being a .240-15 guy to a .275-45 guy. If it was that easy everyone would be doing it.
Time will tell, but it’s almost unheard of for a guy to be so bad for such a long period of time and then for him to turn into an all-star level hitter overnight.
By Tom on Apr 27, 2011
Yes, it’s incredible rare (nearly impossible) for such a transformation to take place. I’m almost always the guy arguing for regression to the insanity we come to experience on a yearly basis. But in this case, as you can tell, I’m a proponent.
As said in an ESPN blurb, “Baseball America rated Bautista as Baltimore’s No. 12 prospect but did see some potential, writing, “Bautista has a quick bat and can catch up to the best fastballs. His power potential is his best tool.””.
The way I see is that he always had a good eye (walked 9.4-13.9% in years prior to The Event). For his career up to and including 2009, he sported a 42.8% FB and 10.4% HR/FB ratio. From 2010 to now, he sports a 53.7% FB and 22.6% HR/FB ratio. From 2004-09, per 600 AB (say a full-season), he hit 20 homers. If his FB ratio increased (53.7/42.8)25.5%, that would push his HR to 25 right there. It should also be noted that 102 of 121 homers were to left (55/62 over last 2 years). So it makes sense that the more he pulls the ball, the greater the chance for a homer. And because one of the tips he was given was to start his swing earlier, he was able to a) get more bat speed and b) get more pull on the ball. So as a % of his FB, more should be HR given that more are of the pull variety. From 2004-09, he put 39% of his balls in play in left. From 2010-11, he put 53% in left, which is a 38% jump in pulled balls. Also, of the balls in play in left 04-09, he hit a hr in 9.2% of them (20.4% in 10-11). If we adjust his balls in play 04-09 to left to the same % he has in 10-11, he’d have had 192 more BIP to left from 04-09. And at 9.2%, that means 18 more hr over the total span. So per 600 AB, he’d have hit 26 hrs + the change in FB % (kind of a crude add because some of the increase in balls to left were included in that jump..but for argument sake..), that puts him at 33 HR per 600 AB.
So bottom-line, with the adjustments to his batting profile and his 2004-2009 self, he would have hit 33 HR per 600 AB. And that does NOT include additional power; power he leverages by getting more loft on the ball itself (the increase in HR/FB%). If we assume it goes from 10.4% (04-09 avg) to say 16% (Ortiz/Konerko type company), then we’re probably looking at around 51 HR per 600 AB.
That is all crude and probably somewhat erroneous in various spots….but it at least paints a picture as to why the jump in HR and if it’s at all legit. I’d say it is because of that incoherent rambling. If you’re still reading this….thank you for your time! And to fellow Bautista owners…cheers!
By Sanibel on Apr 27, 2011
Thank Tom. And Ray, of course.
I was contemplating whether J. Batista is a sell-high candidate or a legitimate power hitter (despite a .265/or so average). I’m keeping him and hoping for the fireworks to continue past July 4th.
Cheerios!
By Ray Flowers on Apr 28, 2011
Sanibel – Love the icon.