Waiver-Wire Adds
May 2nd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
You’re in a 12 team league that starts 14 hitters and nine pitchers with five or six guys on your bench. If you are in a setup such as this the following guys might be available for you to add. The question is – should you?
Mike Adams: The best pitcher in baseball? Through 14 innings he hasn’t walked a better and has allowed three hits. That’s a 0.21 WHIP folks. Toss in a 0.64 ERA and the guy been utterly amazing. He’s worth a look in a 12 teamer while pitching like this just don’t expect too many saves since Heath Bell is currently working on the 6th longest consecutive save streak in big league history (40).
Alberto Callaspo: He might be hitting .301, but he’s really nothing more than a replacement level player. Callaspo has never hit more than 11 homers in a season, and he has all of 10 steals in his career. His average won’t hurt you, it sits at .280 for his career, and it is impressive that he’s currently sporting a substantial increase in his walk rate which has led to a .381 OBP, some .051 points clear of his career rate. Unfortunately he likely only qualifies at third base, but with all the injuries at that position he might be worth a short-term add.
Doug Fister: This hurler owns a solid 1.28 WHIP during his young career, and his ERA also sits below four at 3.92. Unfortunately his K/9 rate is just 5.19, so there is little in the way of upside here. Fister’s xFIP last year – a measure designed to show what a pitchers true ERA should be (including normalization for ballpark) – says that his mark last year was 4.10, that it is 4.16 this year and 4.18 for his career. Given that his ERA’s his first two years were 4.13 and 4.11, do you really think he has a good shot to keep his ERA below three this year (it’s currently 2.70)?
Kosuke Fukudome: He lit up April hitting .383/.486/.400. So the initial thought is that he must finally have figured it out. Probably not. He’s still being platooned sitting against lefties (only six at-bats against southpaws this year), and if you look at his career April is always his best month of the season. Moreover, its the only month he has hit better than .280 (.338), his only one with an OBP over .382 (it’s .448) an a SLG over .455 (it’s .507). History says you should expect things to go south pretty soon.
Todd Helton: The Rockies’ first sacker is a legitimate option at the corner infield spot, especially with guys like Daric Barton and James Loney struggling. Helton isn’t likely to reach his totals from 2009 (.325-15-86-79) but it’s doubtful he’ll be as bad as he was last year either (.256-8-37-48). As long as his back doesn’t betray him his bat can play as a depth option.
Phil Humber: His spot in the rotation isn’t secure with Jake Peavy nearing a return, but Humber has performed admirably. However, he doesn’t strike anyone out (5.85 per nine), and there is little chance that he will be able to continue to keep his HR/9 so low (it’s 0.56) and there is no chance he’ll keep his hit rate down at .212 (that’s some .065 points below his career rate).
Conor Jackson: A first round draft pick with beautiful stroke, Jackson was a solid performer from 2006-08 as a guy who was hitting .290 with 15 homers and 70 RBI. He then picked up West Valley Nile River Mekong Delta Virus or whatever it’s called. It ruined his 2009 and 2010 seasons. Playing time is an issue this season, the A’s have seemingly 47 hitters on their roster, but Conor is looking just like his old self hitting .298 with a .375 OBP and his normally stellar BB/K ratio (1.00). He’s worth an add if he continues to play every day.
Jason Marquis: He’s 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA. Come on, seriously though? Marquis will take the ball every five games, throw a lot of innings, and produce double-digit wins. He does it every year he is healthy. He also owns a career ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.42 over more than 1,500 big league innings. He’s totally on his game right now and might be worth a spot start or two in the short-term, but you can’t count on him to be anything more than your last starter – and even that may not be a deal you’ll want to make in a mixed league.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alberto Callaspo, Conor Jackson, Doug Fister, Jason Marquis, Kosuke Fukudome, Mmiek Adams, Phil Humber, Todd Helton, waiver-wire
By Jeff Shelton on May 2, 2011
Any thoughts on B. Colon. I’m not expecting this to continue but the fat mans stuff looks shockingly good. Did you catch any of his last start? He looks filthy and I’m looking to replace Hughes as my 7th SP. Drop Narveson for the fat man or do you like Marquis better short term? Thanks Raybone!
By Ray Flowers on May 2, 2011
Jeff – We need more data on Colon. 26 IP simply isn’t enough. I’ll give you this though, he has looked pretty darn impressive. A K an inning and no walks is great (barely two per nine), but the guy is 38 yrs old and hasn’t thrown 100 big league innings since 2005. If you want to pick him up and ride the wave fine, but it’s going to crash heavily at some point.
I’d prefer Colon over Marquis.
By Matt on May 2, 2011
What about Mike Aviles. He has been red hot recently?
By joel on May 2, 2011
Ray: My OFs are Kemp, Braun, J Upton, Torriii and Michael Bourn. We start 4 OFs and a Utility. My catcher is Russell Martin. I’ve been offered Posey and Sizemore for Martin and J Upton. For some reason, I sort of want to do it, mainly cause I have no faith in Martin. What do u think?
By Ray Flowers on May 2, 2011
Matt – Aviles shouldn’t be on waivers. He’s a .300 hitter with 10 homer, 10 steal potential (at least). He should have been rostered at the draft table.
By steve abbott on May 2, 2011
ray: i need some help, should i pick up madison bumgarner for matt harrison or phil hughes even thought we dont know how long it going to take for him to get back and would you pick up jed lowrie off the wavier line to back up gordon beckham
By Ricky on May 2, 2011
Ray: I can only start 5 OF and I have: N. Cruz, BJ Upton, Granderson, Torii Hunter, Jason Kubel, Luke Scott, Alex Rios, and Coco Crisp. 10 tm 5×5 H2H. Would you trade Upton, Kubel and Farnsworth to get Choo and Marmol? I think I like it. What do you think?
By El Burro on May 2, 2011
What to do with Carlos Pena? He’s currently sitting at a pathetic .159 avg with no home runs and a paltry RBI total. In fact, he’s 11 for 70 on the year and is starting to get platooned versus leftys. Now as a Pena owner the last 3 years in mixed 14 team h2h league,, I know what comes with his ownership…. But, he’s 33 and seems to be regressing.
My league is deep ( roster 29 players) and owners are very shrewd and talented, so there is no “sell low” window here in my opinion…and I don’t want to drop him, but since he’s manning my CI spot and there is a dearth of talent available, I’m curious to get your take on the following:
1. What line do you expect out of Pena this year?
2. Does Cooper (TOR), Valencia (MIN) or Johnson (HOU) excite you at all in replacing Pena at CI? Or should I continue to ride this nonsense out?
3. Do Eric Hosmer and/ or Moose get called up in KC before June 1? I know Hosmer is raking and Kila is falling out of favor… Please set my expectations as both are FA in my league and I’m thinking about an early stash and grab.
Thx
By Ray Flowers on May 2, 2011
Joel – Martin has surprised the hell out of me to this point. I’m pretty surprised to say the least. At the same time he has four hits in his last 7 games and just one run in that time.Is that natural regression or a slowdown? Posey will almost certainly outperform him.
Sizemore has been great. At the same time he hasn’t stolen a base in 12 games and has only three walks. He isn’t going to be worth much if his average falls back down to .280 if he isn’t running. J UP can be an across the board star – what Sizemore used to be.
I like posey a lot, but Upton is the difference maker. I wouldn’t look down on you for doing the deal at all, not with Martin’s recent history, but I’m tempted to side with Upton and Martin.
By Ray Flowers on May 2, 2011
Steve – I think if you are in go for it mode you add both and dump both. Thornton was getting his grove back, and then he bombed yet again in the last game of April. Clearly, he just isn’t right, and with Santos performing well…
Hughes – no definitive word on his health, but I’m very leary.
By Ray Flowers on May 2, 2011
Ricky – Marmol’s a big upgrade over Farnsworth so is Upton/Kubel worth Choo?
I like Choo the most of that group, and he would be a great add after a slow start. At the same time, you’ve giving up a lot. Kubel ain’t great, but he a 20-80 guy worst case scenario. With Upton we could be looking at a 20/20 guys, of potential a 20/40 guy. Choo is a better option, but I really like Upton.
I’d do the deal because of the large bump from Marmol more than the addition of Choo.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Pena is awful. He’s barely hit .200 over his last 1000 ABs, and his thumb is hurt. He’s obviously going to improve, but it’s looking like last years poor numbers are the best you can expect this year. That’s the best case after his putrid start. Really, it’s about the healthy of his finger.
2- None of the guys you mentioned excites. Johnson likely to produce the most HRs, but average will be, well, average. Valencia a better average but obviously less pop.
3- Don’t think Hosmer is called up before June 1. In fact, I dont know if he’ll even be called up then. Its the Royals, they are always confused, and its like every prospect they have is a corner infielder.
I’d say keep Pena if you can, but add another bat to help boost your totals.
By Joel on May 3, 2011
OK. One last trade Q. I’ve also been offered Chris Carpenter and CarGo for CC Sabathia and Justin Upton in my 6×6 H2H league. My other starting pitchers are Hamels, Marcum, Brett Anderson, Pineda, Bumgartner and Anibal. Fairly deep, so maybe I can take the pitching downgrade in the deal. For some reason, I’m leaning towards it. what do u think?
By Rob on May 3, 2011
Hi Ray,
Aviles is a free agent. Drop David Murphy or Jhonny Peralta to pick him up? Murphy is in UTIL and Peralta in MI.
Leaning toward Murphy since he’s not a sure bet when Hamilton returns.
Also picked up Smith when LoMo went to the DL. Your thoughts on LoMo v Smith in the long run? I know you made a wager with Kyle that Smith would have a better season than Bay. Thoughts?
No bats on the bench, all pitchers.
Thanks!
By El Burro on May 3, 2011
Wish I could argue your take on Pena, but it’s true and frustrating. Thx…
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Joel- Cargo or Upton? I can’t say I’m excited about what I’ve seen from CarGo this year, are you? Given that I’d prefer CC I think it makes sense for you to just turn this one down. It might be one of those 50/50 deals, but when those come up my normal move is to reject it.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Rob – Peralta is prob. more valuable than Murphy because of ss/3b elig. Murphy, as you correctly state, is likely to loose some at-bats when Hamilton returns as well.
LoMo or Smith is a real toss up. Neither one has a full season at the big league level to draw on. LoMo isn’t a 25 HR bat at this point like he looked in the early going. Given his foot issue as well, I’m gonna say go Smith, though it might end up being a 50/50 type of deal with those two.
By Chad on May 3, 2011
Ray- What two would you prefer? Bud Norris, Harang, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Madison Bumgarner?
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Chad – Norris and Hudson. Lots of solid arms here, but those two are the ones with the K upside.
By Michael on May 3, 2011
My league penalizes for Caught Stealing. Is it time to start worrying about Juan Pierre? I have Rajai Davis, Elvis Andrus, and Ellsbury on my squad so I have plenty of steals. Should I drop Pierre for a better bat (Damon, Beltran, Coghlan, Bay, and Carlos Lee are all on the wire)?
By Cliff on May 3, 2011
Hi Ray,
Who do you prefer? Lilly or Wolf? Thanks
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Michael – Pierre should be fine, but it is certainly discouraging to see him struggling like this. Could it be a sign that he’s lost half a step? Maybe, it’s not like he is a young guy anymore. You already have three guys who are basically all speed no power, so four of those types is overkill.
Beltran would be the guy to add out of that group in my mind. I’d also keep an eye on Lee and how he comes back from his injury.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Cliff – Give me Lilly. Great home park to pitch in AND he gets to pitch in San Fran/Diego. That helps a lot. He’s also third in baseball in WHIP the last three years. Plus, he has room to improve right now while Wolf is almost certain to regress.
By Patrick on May 3, 2011
Good afternoon Ray,
I’m looking at obtaining some starting pitching in a NL-only roto league (10 team, single season). I’m leading the power cats and thinking Alfonso Soriano is my best trade chip right now; what are your thoughts on targeting Gallardo? Alternatives on the power-shortage teams would be Bumgarner, Chacin, Oswalt, Ubaldo, Sanchez.
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Patrick- Oswalt is the best pitcher of the group. He’d be my first target. I’d be surprised if you were able to land him though. Gallardo is a much safter bet to be available after his slow start. He’s got a huge power arm, K an inning kind, but he has always been all over the map in terms of consistency. There are no reports of there being any injury, so I would support going hard after him since this could very easily be the low point of his season.
By Jim on May 4, 2011
Ray: I really enjoy your comments on the drive time radio show — much more than the endless happy talk and flirtations of your co-hosts.
I’m in a 12-team, AL only league, 4×4, that uses ks instead of WHIP. It is a keeper league. I have 3 comparable relievers and need to cut one, and all would be keepers if they ever became closers. I need to drop one of them. They are: Ryan Perry, Joba, and Scott Downs.
Thanks in advance for your response.
By Ray Flowers on May 5, 2011
Jim – Hard to know who would be keeper if we are looking at potential closers.
Perry has a great arm, but consistency has eluded him. As it sits now, he is no better than 3rd for Tigers behind Valverde, Benoit.
Chamberlain is behind Rivera, Soriano.
Downs would have to be behind Walden and Rodney at least.
It will take an injury or two for any to close.
The best pitcher is Downs, though he might be furthest from closing and has been injury prone this year.
If I was choosing between the young guy, I’d say go Perry. Joba’s days as an elite option appear to be through.