Mailbag: May 3, 2011
May 3rd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Looking to buy low and sell high. Would you trade Alfonso Soriano and Luke Scott for Carl Crawford or Carlos Gonzalez?
– @cladiusnoster
Everyone is talking about how awful Carl Crawford (.181-1-7-7-4) and Hanley Ramirez (.191-1-11-11-3) have performed but we haven’t heard many roundly criticizing the performance of CarGo (.232-1-14-13-3). It’s really pointless to talk about projections this early in the year so I won’t other than to say Gonzalez is light years from the top-5 performer he was last year (.336-34-117-111-26). Hitting just .143 in 49 road at-bats this year, CarGo still hasn’t figured out how to hit on the road (career: .260/.307/.405). Given his slow start, and his career long struggles on the road you might have to admit that he has no chance to repeat his numbers from last year. Still, both he and Crawford simply have to improve upon what they are doing – they’re far too talented not to. And speaking of Crawford, check this out. Crawford’s .431 OPS for April was the worst month of his career. Here are the yearly lows, for a month of time, for his career.
2010: .683 in August
2009: .708 in April
2008: .655 in July
2007: .660 in June
2006: .695 in April
2005: .683 in May
2004: .706 in August
2003: .553 in April
So the good news with Carl is twofold. First, he’s never had a month remotely as bad as the one he just completed so it doesn’t figure that his performance will continue along these lines. Second, his .708 OPS for the month of April in his career is the worst he has posted for the six full months of the season.
Scott is what he is. The last three years he has bit between 23 and 27 homers, knocked in between 65 and 77 runs and scored 61 to 70 times. Boring but productive. Soriano has been blasting away hitting 11 homers in his first 27 games. Still, he’s hitting only .267 this year, hasn’t hit .285 since 2007 and has just five steals in his last 174 games played. He’s a solid power bat and one with more upside than Scott, but he isn’t going to hit 45 homers this year.
So to answer the question, if I could trade two solid bats in Scott/Soriano and get back an elite level talent like Crawford or Gonzalez I’d do it.
Should I pick up Scott Sizemore to replace Gordon Beckham?
– @ryanmully
Shockingly Carlos Guillen is still on the shelf with a knee injury.
Will Rhymes has hit .221 with a .556 OPS in 68 at-bats.
Second base is a black hole of offense for the Tigers.
Down at Triple-A the Tigers had a guy who was hitting .408 with 15 RBI and 17 runs scored in 23 games. Huh. So what did the brilliant brain trust in Detroit do? They said to themselves ‘maybe we should call up this guy who is hitting like Ty Cobb.’ Hello Scott Sizemore. Considering how amazing he has been at Triple-A and how awful the offense has been in the bigs, it’s shocking it took this long. I’m not just talking about the month of April this year with Sizemore either. In 667 at-bats at Triple-A Sizemore has hit .315 with 19 homers, 85 RBI, 115 runs scored, 19 steals and a .880 OPS. Of course, his numbers in the bigs have failed to impress (.224-3-14-19-3 in 143 at-bats), but those Triple-A numbers are impressive.
Beckham has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments this season. He’s failed to hit for average (.214) or for power (two homers and five doubles leading to a .320 SLG), isn’t getting on base (.268) and has an abysmal .588 OPS. Maybe it’s time to admit something that most don’t want to admit – Beckham simply isn’t ready to be a difference maker. In 925 big league at bats he’s hit .255 with a .324 OBP and a .405 SLG. The league average since he began his career are .262/.330/.415. That’s right, he hasn’t even been big league average in any of those three measures. Add in the fact that he has just 25 homers and only 12 steals, and this might be one of those situations where your eyes were bigger than your stomach (you know what I’m talking about those of you that always super size everything). Over his last 547 at-bats he’s produced a 5×5 line of .258-11-59-72-5. That’s passable but nothing more.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say I’d take a shot on Sizemore. He may not be able to transition his Triple-A success to the bigs, and he may not even be starting in three weeks, but there is no question that he is swinging a better bat right now.
I’m starting to lose patience with Austin Jackson. Do you think he’s going to get back on track any time soon?
– @caldevil3219
We’re still on this? Jackson was lucky last year leading baseball with a .396 BABIP. I wrote, probably 13 times this offseason, that there was no way he would be able to sustain that level. Toss in his huge K-rate, it was 27.5 percent, and there was no chance he was gonna hit better than .290 again. This year his average is down at .188 because (a) his BABIP has fallen to .282 and (b) because his K-rate is through the roof at 35.7 percent. Things should improve, in fact by a lot if he doesn’t end up being sent to Triple-A, but there was never a truly realistic shot that he would improve upon his 5×5 numbers from last season.
Thoughts on Ian Stewart for his return to Colorado?
– @gmanesq
It’s funny. Everyone hated Stewart two weeks ago and now everyone want’s to add him because he’s back with the Rockies. Here’s what I see.
(1) Stewart killed it at Triple-A hitting .406 with three homers and 13 RBI in 10 games. That’s what he should do though against the inferior competition.
(2) Stewart had only two hits in 28 at-bats with the Rockies to start the year. You say ‘small sample size” and I agree. Still, the guy has hit .241 in almost 1,150 at-bats in the bigs, so clearly he’s never going to help you in that category.
(3) The guy is a whiff machine. In his career he’s struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats (32.3 percent). You can be Adam Dunn and have success doing that or you can be Mark Reynolds and struggle miserably.
Stewart is what he has always been and what he will always be. When he runs into one the ball will fly into the cheap seats. Unfortunately, he’ll never hit for enough of an average to be an elite option at the hot corner. With Todd Helton playing well at first base, there is a bit of squeeze or at-bats in the infield. If Jose Lopez remembers how to hit, and Ty Wigginton regains his health, it’s not at all certain that Stewart will play every day. Stewart is a fine NL-only option, but he had better be nothing more than your backup third basemen in mixed leagues at the moment.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 (the stations change to XM87 and Sirius210 on Wednesday).
Tags: Alfonso Soriano, Austin Jackson, Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez, Gordon Beckham, Ian Stewart, Luke Scott, Mailbag, Scott Sizemore
By Joe on May 3, 2011
Hey Ray,
Looking for some Outfield help…looking to drop Gomes for either Jonny Dammon or Matt Joyce. I don’t need any category in particular just looking for an all around good player. Which one would you recommend moving forward?
Thanks for all you do
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Joe – I’d take a shot on Joyce. He’s a similar player to Gomes so it’s more of a fit, and he has been rolling of late. He’s likely to be platooned, but I’m just not that excited about Damon who is consistent yet boring.
By Joe Closer on May 3, 2011
Listen to the XM show every day. I’m in a 13 team, NL only, keeper, rotisirrie style league and didn’t spend anything on closers at the auction. Instead, I went for the setup guys in hopes to get saves as the season went on. I have the following middle relievers – should I be considering dropping any? I could use another starter to pick up some K’s. Loe, Guerrier, Masset, Motte. I have Ryan Madson and just minored Jensen, replacing him with Worley.
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Joe – Hopefully we keep you entertained on the show.
Some good arms there. The one that sticks out to be though is Guerrier. I don’t think he has any shot at closing for the Dodgers, just doesn’t have the arm for it. He’s average in GB/FB, HR/F in his career, and has been very lucky with his line drive rate this far. His K/9 rate is below average, and this year he’s posting the 2nd worst BB/9 mark of his career. Move on from him.
By Pete on May 3, 2011
ray -
call me crazy, but i’m not sure liriano is “back” even after his no-no tonight. his velocity is still down and his K’s were low.
considering about offering a trade for gallardo straight up. my thinking is this: now is the time to sell liriano high (before he starts sucking again) and buy gallardo low. liriano has the ultimate pitcher’s park (besides petco), but gallardo will probably end up with more wins because the brewers are a better team. i’m in a H2H keepers POINTS league btw.
thoughts? am i insane?
thanks in advance for the advice!
By Tyler McNeely on May 3, 2011
Hey Ray-
Having problems at SS but not much to choose from…how would you rank Yunel Escobar, Jed Lowrie, Ian Desmond, and Orlando Cabrera. Sorry its a boring question but i’m really struggling to see any real definitive frontrunner here.Thanks
Tyler
By Ray Flowers on May 3, 2011
Tyler – Not a boring question at all.
4 – Despite a decent start, I want nothing to do with OCab.
3- Escobar started hot and then hit the skids. His swing is all out of whack right now with a 66% GB rate. Until he gets that worked out, he’s not going to be helping anyone.
2 – Lowrie is everyone’s golden boy but there is no way he’ll be able to sustain a .390 BABIP. Plus, his GB/FB is awful, so while the power numbers might be there, I don’t think he’s even a .300 hitter.
1 – Desmond is running like wild. I dont know if he will better is counting stats from last year, but if he keeps running like this…
By Alan Siefert on May 4, 2011
Ray,
It seems like every week that goes by I think about trading Hanley Ramirez. I’m in a 10 team Points league (non- keeper). I am thinking about offering Hanley Ramirez and Aaron Harang for Tim Lincecum and Maicer Izturis. What are your thoughts? Good deal or bad deal?
Here is my roster, Soto, Votto, Pedroia, Youkillis, Ramirez, I. Davis, Ramirez, McCutchen, Bruce, Choo, McGehee, Span, A. Jones, D. Barney
Lester, Kershaw, Shields, Garza, Billingsley, Harang, Lewis, Bumgarner, C. Young, Wilson, Axford, Nathan
By Marco on May 4, 2011
Hi Ray….Love your XM show…kiss Kay for me.
Anyway, my team is in stacked everywhere but OF (which is bad). I already have David Wright and Aramis Ramirez. Would your trade Ramirez for Delmon Young? My OF is currently: Markakis, Beltran, Huff, Abreu, and Juan Pierre. I use Ramirez and Derrick Lee interchangably in my second Utility spot. Should I try to get more or just do it b/c I have no depth?
12 team roto….currently 3rd.
thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2011
Pete – First off, no single outing changes my opinion on a guy, one way or another. Second, you cannot predict wins. No way to do it, so don’t make a deal based on that. Third, Liriano’s FB this year is less than a mph below his career level, not that far down.
If you offer the deal it will certainly be accepted after last night.
If you look at my top-100 from before the year you will see I had Gallardo slightly ahead of Liriano.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/10/top-100-starting-pitchers/
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2011
Alan – Sooner or later Hanley will hit. The guy has been a star for 4 straight years. Trade him if you want, but I’m not going to say it’s a good idea. The guy is a 5 category star who plays SS – he brings so much value.
With your staff, you don’t really need SP help, but if you did the deal you couldn’t count on Izturis as your SS in a 10 teamer.
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2011
Marco – I’ll be happy to kiss kay for you (I know all the boys want to).
With D. Young on the DL, and looking horrible when he was active, I’d have to think you could get him for less than Aramis. I get questions every day from people asking me if they should even bother adding Delmon off waivers.
Try to get Young, he should be solid when he returns, but I’d try to do so at less of a cost.
By Joel on May 4, 2011
Ray: EMERGENCY trade advice needed: I just got the following unbelievable offer in my 6×6 h2h league: I get PUJOLS and Fuld/Rajai, I give Dunn and Justin Upton. My other OFs are Kemp, Braun, Torriii and Bourn.
I HAVE to do this, right?
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2011
Joel – Fuld isn’t going to offer much. Davis is a great source of steals. Pujols is obviously the best hitter going and a beast in 6×6 leagues.
Dunn is a massive homer bat, also has a strong OBP/OPS each year.
Upton is a great, young player with across the board talents. Really like him.
Yes, I think you should do the deal, but it’s not as lopsided as you think it is as Davis/Fuld aren’t likely to be more productive then Dunn the rest of the way.
By CHRIS on May 4, 2011
hey ray, big fan of the drive.
I have Beckham at 2nd base now and i just picked up darwin barney..do you think barney will keep up his production because im ready to drop beckham.??
By Ray Flowers on May 4, 2011
Chris – as you read, I’m concerned about Beckham who just hasn’t been able to figure it out. Still, I’m not dumping him for Barney.
Barney will hit for a decent average and might steal a handful of bases, but that’s it. I’d honestly be a bit worried about him hitting higher than .280 though. His hit rate is really high at .341, and his line drive rate of 25.0 percent is also well in excess of normal.
He has no power at all, none. He isn’t going to drive runs in either (only 49 last year at Triple-A).
By Matthew on May 5, 2011
Morning, Ray. Hope the Left Coast is treating you kindly today.
I need to pick up a closer to weather the storm until Broxton straitens himself out. Is Kevin Gregg or Drew Storen a better option? I’m assuming you’d recommend dropping Broxton and I can’t afford to carry three closers.
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 5, 2011
Matthew – Weather is great out here for Cinco De Mayo. Hope it’s the same where you are.
Gregg gets the job done, but he is sloppy about it.
I’d grab Storen. I think he’s pretty much the #1 guy for Nats with Burnett struggling of late and Storen really putting up some quality innings.
Must be a really shallow league to have both available.
By Rob on May 5, 2011
Hi Ray,
Would you cut bait with Broxton or hold him? I need to pick up a bat, looking at Figgins, and wanted to see if you thought Broxton was worth holding on to? Would you make that move?
He has been less than inspiring so far and it looks like the darkest days may be yet to come…
My other RP are Axford, Hanrahan, Storen.
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 5, 2011
Rob – sketchy details out of LA on the arm situation of Broxton. Without knowing what is really going on there it’s almost impossible to know what his future holds this year. If you have a need, I say let Broxton go. He might figure it out and be worth a lot, but at this point that seems like a slim possibility.