Mailbag: May 10, 2011
May 10th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are the answers to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Is it time to cut bait on Corey Hart?
– @DeKampanilya
Hart’s season started late because of injury, and then the Brewers made the mistake of activating him too quickly (he had only 15 at-bats appearances in the minors and produced two hits). “Maybe we could have kept him there longer but some of that has to do with the player… Corey thought he was ready,” said manager Ron Roenicke. Clearly, Hart wasn’t ready. Through 34 at-bats he is batting .176, has a .382 OPS and hasn’t produced a single RBI. So do you drop him? Would you drop Troy Tulowitzki? If you weren’t aware, he has been worse than Hart the past two weeks hitting just .093. Obviously Tulo is a better player than Hart, but the point should be obvious – you don’t want to panic and drop guys with track records of success because of down periods. Coming off a season in which he hit 31 homers, knocked in 102 runs and scored 91 times – something only seven other hitters in the game did last year – it would be pretty darn tough to recommend dropping Hart unless you are desperate or in a really shallow mixed league.
Raul Ibanez off waivers? Yeah, I’m that desperate.
– @Chris_Rinaldi
Ibanez had an 0-for-35 stretch recently, and the results of that slump are clearly evident in his .222 batting average for the season. At the same time, the guy has completely turned things around of late with five multiple hit games in his last seven outings. In fact, over the last seven days Ibanez is hitting .462 with two homers and five RBI as he is on his way to putting that massive slump to bed. However, there are concerns with Ibanez. First, he will be 39 years old next month and coming off his worst HR total (16) in six years and his worst RBI mark (83) in seven years. Second, Domonic Brown is closing fast hitting .367 with four bombs, 10 RBI and 11 runs in 13 minor league games as he works his way back from injury. Will Brown eat into Ibanez’s playing time? He may not if Ben Francisco continues to struggle so mightily (he has one hit in 18 at-bats in May), but both Ibanez and Francisco could be put on notice shortly when Brown is called up.
Ibanez is a veteran run producer and manager Charlie Manuel is nothing if not supportive, sometimes to a fault, of his veterans. There isn’t much reason to think that Ibanez can’t replicate the numbers he posted last season (.275-16-83), even with his slow start, so you’ll have to decide how much value there would be in your league for an outfielder like that.
Chris Iannetta and John Buck are on a tear lately. Which would you rather own?
– @chillmodious
Back in January I broke down Buck in How to Evaluate a Player. You can read that piece to find out why I felt that Buck didn’t appear likely to replicate the numbers he posted last season (.281-20-66-53). So far this season I’ve been sort of right. Buck is hitting a poor .236, though predicting a regression in his batting average was the easy to do after last season, but the counting numbers have been solid. If Buck were to maintain his current pace over 409 at-bats, the total he received last year with Toronto, here is how his 2011 effort would stack up.
2010: .281-20-66-53
2011: .236-15-63-59
While admitting my initial thoughts of a regression appear to be taking hold, I’m surprised at the fact that Buck has done as well as he has this year. At the same time, Buck has three homers and eight RBI in his last 10 games, or his numbers would look awful. He still isn’t getting on base (.317 OBP), but I will commend him for his BB/K mark which is 0.52. Of course, only once in his career has that mark been 0.40, and for his career it’s 0.28, so it’s doubtful to hold up. So in the end, I’m still sticking with the regression I predicted three and a half months ago.
I’ve long been a fan of Iannetta. He’ll never hit for a strong average, he is currently batting .247 and striking out 35 percent of the time, but he has always had plenty of power (five homers in just 77 ABs) and he has always known how to work the count (his OBP is a whopping .414). The difference between these two backstops boils down to this for me. Iannetta is younger (by three years), hits in a better park and knows how to take a walk. Sooner or later those factors will overcome a grip it and rip it hitter like Buck. While their numbers look pretty similar at this point, I’d offer this slant. Let’s compare each hitters career numbers, per 400 at-bats, and see what we end up with.
J. Buck: .243-15-56-47 with a .302 OBP and .723 OPS
Iannetta: .235-19-67-55 with a .358 OBP and .799 OPS
Give me Iannetta who has slightly more power, a much better eye, is younger and hits in the better ball park.
I need Closer. Would you deal Robinson Cano for Heath Bell and Grady Sizemore?
– @mattsenatore
Cano was drafted as the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. He’s done little to dissuade anyone from that view as he is hitting .290 with eight homers, 24 RBI and 18 runs scored. For those of you who love “pace” talk – that would equate to a season long fantasy line of .290-40-121-91-10. Uh yeah, that’s pretty good. Clearly you would only move Cano if the return was substantial.
Bell just lost his streak of 41-consecutive save chances converted, but he has still been dynamite yet again. Through 14 appearances Bell has posted a 1.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and has converted eight of nine save chances. His strikeout mark is down almost two full batters from his career mark (7.71 compared to 9.45) and he is walking more batters than ever before (his current BB/9 mark of 3.86 is well above his career rate of 3.03), but I would take those two numbers to be more of a reflection of a small sample size than declining skills. With all the turnover in the 9th inning this year, there can’t be any argument whatsoever that Bell is one of about 10 “locks” at the backend of bullpens right now.
Sizemore started out on fire (he hist .378 in April), and then slumped miserably of late (.143 in May). In total, he’s hitting .288 with a .342 OBP. For his career he has hit .273 with a .363 OBP, so he’s pretty much right on track there. However, he’s really upped the homer pace with five bombs in 73 at-bats leading to a mark of one homer every 14.6 at-bats. Given that he hit one every 25.3 at-bats over his first 3,259 at-bats, you’d have to assume that rate will regress moving forward. However, the biggest concern with Sizemore is his utter lack of thefts. Sizemore has attempted only one steal and he was unsuccessful. It’s no a shock that he has curtailed his running since he is coming back off major knee surgery, but there is a massive difference in terms of the value of a player if he is swiping 20+ bases, as Sizemore did from 2005-08, compared to the a guy who just isn’t running.
I’d hold on to Cano. He’s as certain as any hitter in baseball to meet his lofty projections as an elite option. Sizemore, until he starts running, simply isn’t close to being an elite level fantasy outfielder. Bell is elite, but with seemingly half the teams in the league switching things up in the 9th inning on a daily bases you have, and will have, plenty of options to turn to if you need save help moving forward.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Chris Iannetta, Corey Hart, Domonic Brown, Grady Sizemore, Heath Bell, John Buck, Mailbag, Raul Ibanez, Robinson Cano
By Keith on May 10, 2011
I’m having a hard time valuing closers. I have two good closers – Soria & Street. Looking to add a third and it is VERY slim pickings. If I were to offer Kershaw for someone like Kimbrel and Delmon Young would I be crazy? If so, what would Kershaw be worth (obviously I would want a closer in there)?
12 team, 5×5 head to head, non-keeper
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Keith – DO NOT offer Kershaw for Kimbrel or Delmo Young, that would be a huge mistake.
Remember, as much as we need saves, closers only throw like 60 innings. Therefore, a closer will come up like 150 Ks short of Kershaw, and while a RPs ratios will possibly better, its only in a third of the innings of a starter so really doesn’t impact a team much in comparison to a starter.
If you move Kershaw you’ll need to get back a top-5 closer type. Think this way – Kershaw is an elite starter so you need to get back an elite RP. Still, I’d be hard pressed to do this. A better move would be to target a mid level closer and give up a much less effective starter.
Go to http://www.mockdraftcentral.com. Once there you can register and look at ADP numbers to give you an understanding of how people evaluate pitchers.
Kershaw was taken 47th overall.
Kimbrel 266th.
Two months ago they weren’t even in the same ballpark
Even the ace closers weren’t taken highly. Feliz was 6th at RP and his ADP was more than double that of Kershaw (105).
By Joel on May 10, 2011
Ray: in my 6×6 h2h league, my starting pitchers are Hamels, Marcum, Brett Anderson, CJ Wilson, Pineda, Bumgartner, Anibal Sanchez and Harang. I can trade Pineda and Russell Martin for Jimmy Rollins. Castro is my ss, but we also have one IF and one UT slots for Rollins. Iannetta and Buck are on waivers, so I’d pick one up to replace Martin. What do U think? That would leave me with enough pitching, wouldn’t it?
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Joel – Do the deal. Rollins is an elite option at the position in my mind, even with the slow start. Martin has really slowed of late, and I don’t think he is that much of a better option than Iannetta. You have plenty of pitching, and Pineda isn’t likely to maintain this pace, or likely to throw more than 170 innings.
I’d do it.
By Alan Siefert on May 10, 2011
Ray,
I was reading your article “The Strikeout:Starters” and the starters to target from back in Feb. Obviously not every pitcher has panned out so far this season.
Roy Halladay
Tommy Hanson
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Mat Latos
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
Shaun Marcum
Colby Lewis
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Francisco Liriano
Adam Wainwright
Roy Oswalt
Scott Baker
Ted Lilly
I have RP Brian Wilson and wanted to get a SP for him based on your list. I looked at mock draft central to see what SP were going around him. Should I offer Wilson for either Marcum, Latos, or Cain? Or do you suggest offering for someone else? Its a 10 team Points league and I do have Lewis and Baker from the list.
By Chad on May 10, 2011
Ray- Would you drop Norris for Beachy?
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Alan – Wilson is a star on the hill, a top-5 option if not better. If I’m moving him, you HAVE to target way more than Lewis or Baker. in fact, both of them in a deal for Wilson would not be enough.
If you move Wilson, who is an elite closer, you need to get an elite level SP back – something like a top-15 guy.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Chad – can’t you find another way to do it? Norris has a huge arm, huge, but his ability to extend out what he is doing is in some doubt. Same can be said for Beachy though he has been very good. Both should be rostered. You have to have someone else you can drop right?
By Kevin on May 10, 2011
I was offered Ryan Dempster for Brandon League in a H2H League where I already have Valverde and Kimbrel for Closers. Do you think Dempster is back on track after his last two starts or should I run from this, despite it feeling like a steal?
By Chad on May 10, 2011
Ray- I have a large pitching staff with Weaver, Gallardo, Baker, Pineda, Daniel Hudson, Homer Bailey and Bud Norris. I’m pretty tight on roster spots due to injuries on offense so those guys sit the bench.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Kevin – I do think Dempster is back on track. He can be a difference maker despite slow start.
However – Aardsma has a grade 2 strain of his UCL. Needs further testing. Might, MIGHT, need Tommy John Surgery.
Best case Aardsma likely to miss a month. Worst case he is done until next year.
Make sure you take that into account — in mixed leagues I like to have 3 closers.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Chad – I’d prefer Norris and Beachy over Bailey. Close though.
By Alan Siefert on May 10, 2011
Ray,
Thanks for the info on going after a Top 15 SP for RP Wilson. Who would you put in your top 15 SP that I should start targeting for him?
By Bob on May 10, 2011
GO SHARKS….
I am in a 10 team 5×5 league im starting to fall behind in sb,runs,avg who do you like best for those 3 categories
COCO CRISP, J PIERRE, RAJA DAVIS.
i also have rios,konerko i did not want to load up on white sox players as they are quiet or does it matter? so far… thanks for your help.
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Alan – I plan on putting out a complete updated list of all spots probably at the start of June, if not July at mid season.
Some names to think about – Marcum, Lester, Hanson, Sabathia, Kershaw, King Felix, Jsutin Verlander, Cliff Lee
By Ray Flowers on May 10, 2011
Bob – Davis is the best option in my mind.
Pierre is stable, but his lack of success on the bases worries me.
As great as Crisp has been since the start of last year, the guy just can’t stay on the field.
I’d take Davis who has the mix of youth, skills, and lineup, to be a force.
By Alan Siefert on May 11, 2011
Ray,
Thanks for all the time and effort you put into this. Out of all the sites out there, I come to Baseball Guys for all my fantasy advice.
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Alan – Thanks for the support. I always try my best to make it a worthwhile visit to BBGuys – so glad that you feel that it is.
By Bob on May 11, 2011
Ray – Is Alex Avila for real? Should I drop Jorge Posada to pick him up? Posada is killing me softly.
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Bob- I do not think Avila is “for real” if you are thinking he is going to hit .285 with 25 homers. That doesn’t mean he won’t better Posada’s numbers. Real question is – why have you waited so long with Posada to make the move? Issue now is, when Posada improves, and Avila regresses, what is the best move from this date forward. Pretty much a toss up. Given the start of both to the year, I’d have to say going with Avila is the best choice right now.
By Bob on May 11, 2011
I’m stubborn with Posada…I’ve owned him several years. I do have other options as well to consider since we have only 10 team mixed league. Suzuki, Buck, Barajas, and Ianetta are available as well. Any of those strike you as a better option? How about Arencibia or Soto? Since these two were drafted and then dropped they would be a “free” pick up for me.
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Bob – Suzuki would be my choice out of that group. I keep writing about him, but seems like few are listening. With Soto hurt, I think the A’s catcher is the best bet.
By Mike on May 11, 2011
Ray – Help! My C, Soto, just got put on the DL. Relatively shallow (8 teams) league. Options include: Iannetta, Avila, Wieters, and Suzuki. Do you like any of these options better than Soto? Right now, I don’t, so this probably would be a 2-4 week rental, depending on Soto’s injury. Avila has done best so far, but not sure if he will do best going forward. Iannetta seems like the highest risk/reward, but am not sure I want to sacrifice Avg category. What say you? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Mike – Safest option – Suzuki. He’s been a top-10 catcher the last two years.
All around – Wieters.
Power – Iannetta.
Here’s how I would rank them.
Suzuki, Wieters, Iannetta, Avila.
By Mike on May 11, 2011
Thanks, Ray. Appreciate the guidance.