Buy or Sell – AL Version
May 11th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
I’m always getting questions about what to do with certain players who are over/under performing, so today I’ll break it down for you by discussing a handful of the American League players I’m asked about all the time.
* Buy/Sell designations are based on a mixed league with 12 teams.
Brennan Boesch: On April 28th Boesch was hitting .350. Two weeks later he is batting .298. His OPS in that time has dropped from .926 to .779. He’s also hit only one homers in his last 31 games. So are the vagaries of small sample sizes. In his career Boesch has hit .265 with 16 homers and 85 RBI in 585 at-bats, not .300-30-100 like some people seem to think he will do this year. He will not hit .300. He will not hit 30 homers. He will not have 100 RBI. In fact, if Boesch were to match his career .265-16-85 line I’d be pleasantly surprised. He’s murdering lefites with a .387/.459/.548 line in 30 at-bats, but in 90 at-bats against righties is once again looking no different than an average big league hitter (.267/.320/.378).
SELL
Zach Britton: It’s getting harder to write off his hot start with each successive successful start. Seven starts into his big league career only once has he allowed more than three earned runs, and the result is an impressive 2.93 ERA. He certainly gets a ton of ground balls, nearly 55 percent of batted balls, but I still worry about his poor K/9 rate of 5.02, and his completely average 3.35 BB/9 mark. Sooner or later you have to think that his 1.50 K/BB ratio will catch up to him, especially when his hit rate goes up (his current BABIP is .236). In addition, his left on base percentage is 81.1 percent, well in excess of the big league average of 70 percent. Toss in the fact that his xFIP (3.97) says his ERA “should” be a full run higher than it current is, and you’d be smart to see what you could get for Britton if you sold him off.
SELL
Colby Lewis: On April 5th, when his ERA was 6.95, everyone thought this guy was a one year wonder and waiver-wire fodder. However, over his last three outings, Lewis has 17 Ks and three walks, has gone at least 7.1 innings in each outing, and is sporting a 2.31 ERA in that trio of starts. The strikeout rate still has some room to grow since it’s barely over six, in fact I’d be pretty darn surprised if it didn’t, and once that ridiculous HR/9 mark of 2.38 regresses, and it will, his ERA should stand a solid chance of creeping back below four (it’s currently 4.57). He gives up too many fly balls, not a great match for his ballpark, but we saw last season how he could overcome that foible.
BUY
Jed Lowrie: Everyone’s darling after a hot start to the year. He looks to be locked into every day playing time with Marco Scutaro on the shelf, so he is a must start in mixed leagues, right? Well, maybe. Lowrie hasn’t hit a homer since April 20th (19 games) and since April 22nd he has only four RBI in 17 games. He also hasn’t stolen a base all year, and though we all knew his average would fall – he’s still hitting .327 – he has hit only .256 with 26 percent K-rate in the month of May. I’m not here to say he won’t be an effective option, I’m merely saying that expectations for him are completely out of whack. He’s best used as a starter in AL-only leagues or a middle infield option in mixed leagues.
SELL
Jorge Posada: He’ll be 40 in August, an age when about 99.7 percent of catchers have retired. All those years behind the plate simply break you down physically, and I think that’s what we are seeing with Posada. Everyone seemed to think that moving to the DH role would suddenly turn back the clock a decade – that was never going to happen. The Yankees have shown a lot of patience with Posada, but sooner or later they are going to have to admit what is becoming obvious – Posada just doesn’t have it anymore. On the plus side you have to think that his average could easily improve by 50 percent, there’s just no way he’ll have a .134 BABIP this year, not with a .315 career mark. Still, there are better options unless you are talking about him being a second catcher in a mixed league.
SELL
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brennan Boesch, Buy or Sell, Colby Lewis, Jed Lowre, Jorge Posada, Zach Britton
By Eric on May 11, 2011
Let me once again come to the defense of another Detroit Player from Rays hate. I do believe Ray has Hated on every Tiger player and Brennan Boesch is always a favorite of his. Now let me be the voice of reason. Ray you are close to being right. Boesch is slightly better that league avg. It is my belief that he will be .285/20/90/8 and yes i said 8 SB. He will not go in to a complete spiral like last year killing his avg. If you haven’t noticed he is hitting 3rd in the batting order and he is also run a lot more. Now i doubt he gets to double digits (10) but his above league avg in batting and his few stolen bases makes him a bench option for most teams in shallow leagues and a nice 3 OF option in deeper leagues.
I shall end this as any fan Detroit fan would this time of year GO REDWINGS!!!!!!!!!! Beat the SHARKS
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Eric – I have nothing against any team, other than the Dodgers. Even then, I’m still objective. I still see Kershaw as a top-10 option, think Kemp could go 30/30, and constantly talk up Lilly. I’m objective in my analysis.
I love Max Scherzer and Jose Valerde – I was as high as anyone on those two coming into the year.
I just follow the data and let it lead me.
Oh, and if the Wings beat the Sharks, I might never go to a game again.
By Tyler McNeely on May 11, 2011
With Andrew Bailey coming back I find myself with plenty of closers, out of these CPs which one should I send packing elsewhere…
Chris Perez
Drew Storen
Joel Hanrahan
F. Cordero
A. Bailey
Thanks and go Sharks!
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Tyler – Bailey had a little hiccup, said his arm still isn’t perfect. Expect him back in a week, but exercise some caution.
Clearly you have waaaayyyy too many closers. Honestly, I put any of them up for auction. Whomever gives you the best return – do it.
If you’re asking me which guy I would trade first, it would be Cordero. Even with Chapman looking horrible, that doesn’t take anything away from the struggles of Cordero though – that K-rate just keeps falling.
By Jason on May 11, 2011
Ray:
I appreciate the advice you had on my last trade offer. What do you think about this one?
10-team Roto
I get C. Crawford and C. Kimbrel
I give up Rasmus and B. Morrow
My closers as of now are:
Marmol, C. Perez, Nunez, E. Sanchez (STL) and Melancon (there are 5 RP slots)
My starters as of now are:
Kershaw, T. Hanson, Scherzer, J. Sanchez, Latos, Pineda and Morrow.
Thanks in advance!
By Matt on May 11, 2011
Ray, what do you think of this trade:
I give up Huff, Carmona and Ichiro
I get Gaby Sanchez, Kuroda andKubel
12 team mixed
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Matt- Ichiro is the hits, the average, the steals – are all a lock.
Kubel and Sanchez, your trading for at their peaks.
Huff is just starting to pull out of it. Carmona is solid, though not to the level of Kuroda.
Go ahead and do the deal, but it’s not a difference maker.
By Ray Flowers on May 11, 2011
Jason – You do not need another closer. However, Kimbrel is a fine addition so you can worry about moving a closer in a moment.
For now, you do this deal. I dont like giving up the huge arm of Morrow, but you have four strong arms even if you do this deal. Crawford is a true difference maker. He might have been putrid in April, but he has looked really good in May.
Jump on the deal, and then look to move some of those closers.
By Matt on May 12, 2011
ray if i gor rasmus instead of kubel would that be better for me
By Ray Flowers on May 12, 2011
Matt – I do like it better, but still not a huge slam dunk.
By Jeff on May 12, 2011
Morning Ray,
I need a little help with a trade offer. I was offered Hanrahan and Narveson for Ichiro. The league is a 5×5, 12 team and we can only have 10 pitchers so i would have to drop 2. I have the worst pitching the league, but the best offence.
C Suzuki: 1B Teixeira: 2B Walker: 3B Bautista: SS Andrus: OF Braun, Cuddyer, Ethier, Suzuki: DH G Sanchez
Bench Bonifacio, Bourgeois, Coghlan, Kelly Johnson
P Beckett, Duensing, Jurrjens, Masterson, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Liriano, Morrow
RP Cordero, League
I was thinking maybe Sabathia and/ or Hanrahan for Ichiro.
He has Garcia, Lee, Norris, Narveson, Richard, Sabathia
Capps, Hanrahan, Papelbon, Wilson
a couple FA pitchers out there are: Gorzelanny, Pauley, Moseley, Hammel, Beato, Young, McClellan, McCarthy, Davis
Thanks for the help.
By Ray Flowers on May 12, 2011
Jeff – First off, id you have to drop two guys that’s a tough sell.
Second, Sabathia/Hanrahan for Ichiro would be a great deal for you, though I can’t see it being accepted.
Third, Harahan/Narveson for Ichiro is not a deal I would do.
Fourth, none of the free agents are a must add over what you have.
Keep working to boost your SPs, they aren’t very good, but I don’t see a good fit here.
By Bobby on May 13, 2011
Congrats on the Sharks winning now you wont have to listen to Kyle busting your stones. After that 2nd goal the Sharks gave up i was very concerned………..
By Donna on May 13, 2011
Ray- I know it’s early but the Hosmer kid looks great out of the gate. I already have Youkalis, Lind and Adam Dunn who can play first. Do these guys still outrank the potential of Hosmer?
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
Bobby- The Sharks finally vanquished the Wings. I truly thought they would. I just had a feeling, that despite the adversity, that it was the Sharks time to prove that they weren’t the playoff chockers everyone thought.
Now the test continues against the Canucks.
By Bobby on May 13, 2011
Hello Ray.
i am in an 8 team H2H league i am trading Scherzer as im loaded in pitching and i can choose between Ellsbury or Carl Crawford. 3pts per sb which is huge im leaning towards Crawford who do you like better moving forward this year ?
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
Bobby – I like both guys you can get in this deal. I’m a huge fan of crawford as you must know. I’d say grab him. Ellsbury will almost certainly out steal Carl, but I still have faith that Crawford will be the more productive hitter moving forward – but if you have to settle for Ellsbury, that’s a wonderful consolation prize.
By Jesse on May 13, 2011
Hey Ray,
Since this article deals with Buying or Selling in the AL, I was hoping to get you advice on a tricky Francisco Liriano situation:
I’m in a 14 team mixed roto league, with a 1300 innings limit. One of the teams dropped Liriano today. I have the #1 waiver position, and usually a player with this potential and name recognition never gets dropped. (We do a $500 buy-in to give you some idea of the competitive nature of the league) That being said, do you think it would be worth using my waiver claim on him? I’m just hesitant with so many experts predicting him out of the rotation by this summer (if not sooner) and multiple people believing he’s hiding an injury, but I figured I’d go straight to THE Expert in yourself to get your advice. My pitching staff is below, but thanks as always for the help!
SP: Kershaw, CC, Kuroda, Nolasco, Pineda, AJ Burnett.
RP: Axford, Bailey, Melancon
Players I could drop for Liriano: Matt Thorton, Rafael Soriano, Alex Gonzalez (SS-ATL), or Denard Span
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
Jesse- Liriano has been an elite performer. Hell, he was an elite level performer last year. Obviously something is wrong this year. You don’t lose four batters off your K/9 rate w/o there being a major issue. Add to that the fact that he’s also doubling his career walk rate, and clearly something isn’t right. Looking at the radar gun, his fastball is done about a mile and a half from last year. However, his slider is at the same speed, and though he’s back off on the pitch a bit, he’s still throwing it 28 percent of the time. That number and the mph doesn’t lead me to think he is injured. Still, the results have been horrible despite the fact that no one is squaring him up (his line drive rate is only half of normal, half, this year), and he’s still generating grounders on 52 percent of batted balls.
Add that all up and I would take a shot on him. It’s quite possible that there is an arm issue, something just ain’t right, but don’t forget that Tim Lincecum had a 7.82 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in August before going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September last year.
It’s a risk, but I would bite.