Around the Horn: May 12, 2011
May 12th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |(1) The walking wounded – Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.
(2) Poor Hong-Chih Kuo.
(3) Eduardo Sanchez the Cardinals’ closer?
(4) Russell Martin slumping.
(5) Dallas Braden, Chris Young out with shoulder surgery.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Chris Young, Dallas Braden, Eduardo Sanchez, Hong-Chih Kuo, Joe Mauer, Johan Santana, Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales, Kenley Jansen, Mike MacDougal, Mitchell Boggs, Russell Martin, Vicente Padilla
By joe on May 12, 2011
Who would you rank higher for the rest of the year Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy, Tim Stauffer or Jake Arrieta. Thanks Ray
By Ray Flowers on May 12, 2011
Joe – None of the arms excite me – all are depth options. Arrieta has great stuff, but he hasn’t been talked about because of Britton. Stauffer had a bad last outing, but he has solid skills an a great park. McCarthy – it’s all about staying healthy. Sanchez probably has best arm, but like McC, worries about healthy will dog him.
Sanchez, Stauffer, McCarthy, Arrieta
By brad weiner on May 12, 2011
working on atrade oswalt and coghlan for berkman and aybar
thinking berkamn for oswalt is fair and coghlan for aybar fair also need more hitting on my team i have konerko ortiz dunn and batista as power guys. pitching getting better beckett hamel w rodriguez ross and lilly madison soria and betencourt i think i could replace oswalt with naversonmaybe oswalt trade would weeken stafff to much let me know your thoughts heard you on xm radio good job.
By Ray Flowers on May 12, 2011
Brad – Oswalt is a big arm to lose, the best one on your staff actually. Narverson not even close to replacing him.
Coghlan and aybar are similar with two big diffs- Aybar is a middle infielder and that he steals bases.
Berkman is bound to regress, but should still be solid run producer.
I’d pass on this one though. I like Hamel, but Ross isn’t likely to keep this up, so you’ll need Oswalt.
By Jeff from PA on May 13, 2011
Ray,
10 team mixed h2h points league
Can you rank these 3 guys for U spot?
Hosmer
I Davis
A Lind
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
Jeff – Davis is on the DL. Lind dealing with bad back. Hosmer only healthy one right now.
IF all three are healthy – Lind, Davis, Hosmer.
By Rob on May 13, 2011
Ray – Thanks for all you do here!
Who would you rather have for the rest of the season (10 team, mixed, H2H category league). I’m currently at the bottom in wins and strike outs.
Lilly, Arroyo, Pineda. Which one? I have Lilly but could drop for the others. Could also drop Santos (I’m trying to sell him to someone now).
Separately, what do you see for Joyce the rest of the way? Do you see him out-performing LoMo over the breadth of the season?
Thanks!
By Eric on May 13, 2011
sharks win sharks win sharks win Hope they so all the way for you ray
Who would you drop ray 20 team mixed 8X8 with IP HLD and QS as the extra cat
Chris Narveson
Alex White
Bartolo Colón
By Rob on May 13, 2011
Colby Lewis and Dan Hudson are also available. Basically, I’d be choosing two from: Lilly, Pineda, Hudson, Lewis, Arroyo, Santos. (have Hanrehan, Putz, Street at RP already)
Tell me if I’m being an idiot by thinking about dropping Lilly.
Pitching categories are W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP.
By FP on May 13, 2011
Please explain why the “?” after Eduardo Sanchez as Cardinals closer? Do you not think he has the skill set to close successfully, are you skeptical that the LaRussa-less Cardinals will stick to Duncan’s comment of Sanchez being the “head of the committee”, or are you questioning what Dincan’s comment even means?
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
Rob – not a huge fan of Joyce. I wrote this about him on Monday at Rotoinfo.
“Matt Joyce has been a hot waiver-wire pickup of late because, well, he’s been hot. Five times in his last 10 outings he has produced at least two hits, and on the year he is hitting a smooth .351. Who wouldn’t want a guy like that on their squad. However, I’m here to burst your, and his, bubble on this one.
(1) Joyce is still whiffing too often with 23 in 97 at-bats. It’s hard to hit .300 when you are striking out a quarter of the time.
(2) Speaking about his batting average, let’s look at our old friend, BABIP. Care to guess what Joyce’s mark currently is? Try .432. Here is what’s wrong with that. First off, the best mark in the majors in 2010 was .396 by Austin Jackson. Given that Joyce isn’t fleet of foot he has, what is the percentage for no chance on earth?, to keep this up. Simply put, Joyce doesn’t have the foot speed to beat out balls so he has no chance to post a .400 BABIP. Second, Joyce owns a career BABIP of .301 and that includes his massive start this season. Yet another nail in the coffin – Joyce owns a 30 percent line drive mark. If you are over 25 percent you’re having a season that could lead the league. If you have a 30 percent mark for a season, they have a plaque for you in Cooperstown. In case you were wondering Joyce owns a 19.6 percent career mark, exactly big league average which is usually between 19 and 20 percent.
(3) Despite the batting average, Joyce has only two homers, quite odd for a guy who had 25 homers in his first 490 big league at-bats. His homer total should improve when (a) he starts hitting more fly balls (oddly, all the extra line drives are robbing him of the fly balls he needs to hit homers), and (b) when his HR/F rate rebounds back to “normal” (it’s currently 8.0 percent, well below his 13.3 percent career mark).
Be careful not to overestimate the hot start of Joyce, since there is no chance at all that he’ll vie for the AL batting title while failing to go deep more than 10 times.”
PITCHING – Arroyo not in the class of the other two. I’d hold on to Lilly, but will also say that Pineda should NOT be on waivers.
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
FP – Do you have any faith that LaRussa will stick with one guy? I certainly don’t. “Head of committee” — what does that mean to you? That says to me ‘he’ll be our guy 2/3 of the time.’ Sanchez has great stuff, but he has to be careful to avoid the walks.
The point to me is that LaRussa loves to mix and match, and he’s done that all year.
Sanchez (4 saves, 0 blown chances), Boggs (3/1), Salas (3/0), Franklin (1/4), Miller (1/0).
Does that look like the pattern of a manager who has settled on one guy?
Not sure he will change that stance.
By FP on May 13, 2011
Ray, Thank you for your reply and the clarification of your comment. I concur your comments but ask you the following….STL is currently tied with NYY wiht save opp at 20. While save opp is not a static stat would you rather have a RP who will have a greater number of possible save opps or an RP who would always get the save opp but they were few in number? LIstening today at 5 p.m. Thanks again.
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
FP – Save chances are completely unpredictable. Just cause the Cards are at the top now does not mean they will be at the end of the year. Remember, there has to be a very defined situation for a save to occur. Plus, those closers on “bad” teams are almost always called on when a save chance occurs because the club doesn’t have a lot of chances to save games, so they almost always call on their guy when the situation arises.
You should check out this article on saves:
http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/29/where-do-saves-come-from
By Jim on May 13, 2011
Did I make a good trade (12 team Head to Head league)? I traded Jay Bruce and Starlin Castro for Felix Hernandez. I have already on my team SS-Elvis Andrus OF-Crawford, Granderson, J. Upton, Boesch, and Bay. My pitching needed some help because I only had Gio Gonzalez, J. Zimmerman, C. Bucholz, E. Jackson, J.Jurrjens,and K. Lohse. Thanks, jim
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
Jim – Andrus is likely to be a fair replacement for Castro in terms of overall fantasy value. Bruce I like, but he’s obviously not close to King Felix. You clearly need help in the SP department, so this was a good deal.
By Josh on May 13, 2011
Hey Ray, love the show listen to it all the time…trade question for ya.
-Britton for Gio
-Beltran and Sin Choo for Posey.
My outfield is pretty full right now with Pence, Rasmus, Morrison, and a few other hot hitters for utility (Joyce/Hosmer). Its a 12 team non keeper h2h. Im thinkin the Britton deal may help with wins but i’ll suffer in the K department. Im not a huge Beltran fan as he hasnt played more than 80 some odd games in a couple years…I know you are a Choo choo fan but it seems in these h2h leagues you gotta constantly play the hot hands…thoughts? Oh in case you were wondering for the rest of my pitching staff I have: Shields (thanks for the tip), Cliff Lee, Ogando, Gorzelanny, Yovani and Garza. RP are Soria, Hanrahan and Nunez.
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
Josh – glad you enjoy listening to the show my friend.
Can you repost – I cannot make out the two deals with all the “ands”.
By Ray Flowers on May 13, 2011
Josh – I don’t do the second deal. Choo is an elite talent, 20/20 pretty much a lock, and though he has struggled this year, he’s been so good the last two years, you know he’ll be there. With the way Beltran is hitting right now, you can’t just throw him in. I wouldn’t do choo for posey straight up. Certainly wouldn’t do it if you add Beltran.
I’d do the deal for Gio. Britton won’t be able to keep up these ratios. Not enough Ks. Also may not be allowed to rack up a big innings total this year.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
FP – Hope you grabbed Salas too.
By Dave on May 15, 2011
If I could trade Zobrist for Hanley Ramirez, should I? Zobrist has really helped me and I like his multiple position eligibility.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
Dave – Pull that trigger. you know I love Zobrist, but as good as he is, he is not an elite option. Despite five bad weeks, HanRam is elite. I’d make that deal happen since from this point forward you have to have your money on Ramirez being the better fantasy play.
By Bob on May 15, 2011
Hello Ray,
I just traded Verlander,Rios,Coghlan. i recd Ellsbury,Crawford,Marcum… H2H league The guy i traded was 2-4 and getting desperate. THOUGHTS?
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
Bob – You made a strong deal. I like Rios for a continual rebound, and Verlander is a star, but Coghlan is just basic. You need some pop adding Crawford/Ellsbury = but they will lock you in as a top option on the bases, their average/runs should be strong as well. Marcum is no Verlander, but he’s gonna be really solid.
Good deal.
By Ricky on May 15, 2011
So I have Chipper Jones who I just learned may miss 2 weeks, with my only bench players being Dominic Brown and Anthony Rizzo. Do I drop 1 of those 2 minor leaguers to replace Jones for this week?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Ricky – Jones could easily miss 2-3 weeks. Brown and Rizzo obviously aren’t in the majors, and brown is hurt right now as well. I say you drop Jones actually. He’s nearly 40 and almost certain to be injury prone the rest of the way. The two rookies are huge potentially, so if you are in a keeper league like it seems like you might be, dump chipper.