Around the Horn: May 13, 2011
May 13th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |(1) Carlos Pena finally hitting. Be wary though.
(2) Magglio Ordonez (ankle) to the DL. Brennan Boesch to take over. For more on Boesch see Buy or Sell – AL Version.
(3) Delmon Young and Logan Morrison come off the DL.
(4) Joe Nathan improving – up to serving as a setup man for Matt Capps.
(5) Grady Sizemore missing time with a knee issue for Indians.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brennan Boesch, Carlos Pena, Cubs, Delmon Young, Grady Sizemore, Indians, Joe Nathan, Logan Morrison, Magglio Ordonez, Matt Capps, Tigers, Twins
By jb on May 13, 2011
Ray, Don’t shave the beard! What are your thoughts on playing time for Michael Young for the rest of the season? Will his AB’s be affected when either Hamilton and/or Cruz return? Do you foresee a trade of him by Texas?
thanks
By Matt on May 13, 2011
Ray…
What are your general thoughts on Michael Brantley. Do you think he’s worth a modest investment in a keeper league?
Thanks.
By joe on May 13, 2011
Ray i listen to your show and respect your opinion. Can you please take a look at this trade and get your take? It’s a ten team 5×5 Roto League
Team A: (getting and in last place)
Josh Beckett
Stephen Drew
Logan Morrison
Alfonso Soriano
Ryan Zimmerman
Team B: (getting and a top team)
Hanley Ramirez
Prince Fielder
Mark Reynolds
CC Sabathia
It’s causing a rift in our league, maybe we’re biased but i wanted to get your take. Thank you
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
JB – I’m not shaving it until they win the cup!
Young should play pretty much every day. He’s too good a hitter to bench him. Hamilton and Cruz returning should have little to no bearing on Young. Their return will effect guys like Chris Davis, David Murphy, Mitch Moreland and the like. Young should be fine. Oh, and I doubt they trade him at this point.
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
Matt – Great way to word it – a modest investment would be a good one. Brantley isn’t like to ever be a difference maker, but he should be able to hit enough to play most days, and with his wheels he’ll likely be one of those guys you grab late who always ends up providing you more value that you thought you would get from him.
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
Joe – Let’s see what we have with this offer.
Team A: A top 100, top-100, top-150, top-150, top-20
Team B: A top-5 player, a top-15, a top-35 and Reynolds.
Clearly Team B is getting the elite talent. In fact, they are getting three of the top-35 picks from drafts that were six weeks ago.
Team A is getting a pitcher who has nowhere to go but down.
A SS who is really, really good, but no match for Ramirez.
A solid OF in LoMo who doesn’t steal bases and one who isn’t a 25 HR threat.
An OF who doesn’t run, won’t hit much better than league average, though a 30 HR guy.
An injured superstar who should be back in action within a month. The key word is should.
It’s not a fair deal.
What’s happening is Team A thinks Beckett is going to win the Cy Young. That Drew is going to be a top-5 SS. That LoMo is going to hit .300 with 25 HRs. That Soriano is going to be a 35 HR guy again, and that Zimmerman will return and immidately be elite.
That all could happen, but I’m doubtful that more than two of those things pan out.
By FP on May 14, 2011
Ray,
5×5 10 team ML roto. My offense is finally starting to come around, but my P is atrocious at best. Last in ERA and WHIP and 9th in K’s. I have alredy shed the dead wood SP’s who put me here an now have Shields, Lester, Kuroda, D. Hudson, Danks and Beachy (to the DL). I had an owner offer me Lincecum for D. Wright and I may consider it but how much can one SP really help bring down the ERA and WHIP. To be ceompetitive I will need to go from my 4.70 ERA to about 3.50 and drop about .15 from WHIP. Should I stay with my core of Lester, Shields, Kuroda and Hudson and drop Danks and Beachy to play matchups with guys like Cueto, Floyd, Bumgarner, A. Sanchez who are on the wire, or take teh plunge and trade Wright? (I have Prado and M. Young who could fill in at 3B). Thanks!
By Tyler on May 14, 2011
Ray-
Mike Stanton seems to be the player that is always rated highest in the Florida outfield because he has such great power potential but he doesn’t hit for average at all and has a terrible K:BB ratio. LoMo on the other hand can hit for average, can apparently hit a HR or two, and has a great K:BB ratio. If both are available who do you really want? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
FP – You have great depth at 3B, so you could make this deal. Over the course of a year a team might throw 1400 innings. Lincecum would throw lets say 220 or roughly 16% of the total. That’s a pretty significant amount.
Team ERA 4.75 over 1180 innings = 623 ER
Add in Lincecum at 3.00 over 220 IP (73 ER).
TOTAL = 696 ER over 1400 IP = 4.47
The WHIP is easier to knock down.
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
Tyler – Stanton is the guy I want. LoMo might hit .290-15-70-80-10. That’s a solid line but not much different than a guy like David DeJesus who is often on waivers. It’s usable, but doesnt stand out.
Stanton might hit .250 and steal two bases, but 35 homers, 100 RBI – there is more value in that.
It’s close, but I’d still take Stanton unless my team really needed AVG.
By Rob on May 14, 2011
Hi Ray – Aviles or Peralta? Peralta is bound to enter a dry spell after this recent surge but do you think he’ll be a better points producer in the long run? My league favors power, points H2H format.
I feel Like Aviles should be owned but points-wise, he’s just not giving me much right now.
And Putz was just dropped to waivers. Do I jump on him with Hanrahan, Axford and Storen already on my team? Yet another guy that should be owned but I don’t want to drop anyone to get him. Could drop Kennedy too, I guess.
Your thoughts on Peralta and Putz in this situation?
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
Rob – Even in a 10 team league, no sense in having Putz on waivers. Personally, I’d like to have 3 closers on my squad, so I’d pick him Putz if I could, though Kennedy shouldn’t be on waivers either. Since you already have 3 RP, maybe you should pass.
Aviles vs. Peralta.
Aviles has same HR total, more RBI, and 8 more SBs. That makes up for the six less runs and .045 pt batting avg. diff.
Peralta is hot right now for sure, and more likely to push 20 homers and 80 RBI. Still, Aviles is the better hr/sb threat, and will almost certainly end up with the better batting average at the end of the year.
By Joel on May 14, 2011
Ray:
In my 12 team 6×6 h2h, I’ve been offered Carpenter and Rollins for hamels and Castro. I’m considering countering with Pineda and Castro — what do u think abt that, and who would u rather have for the rest of the season: Rollins or Castro? Thanks!
By Rob on May 14, 2011
This is the situation I hate. Seeing guys like Putz on the wire but having to pass.
Also, I picked up Joyce to ride his hot streak while LoMo was on DL. You’ve actually told me you aren’t on the Joyce train…so would you leave LoMo on the DL until Joyce’s hot streak ends? I’m trying to package a Joyce+LoMo for Choo or Holliday but the guy’s not buying…(with good reason). Cut Joyce now and add LoMo or give it a little more time?
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
Rob – Joyce has NO shot at keeping this up, but you can’t bench him right now. Ride him until he slows, or better yet deal him to someone for top dollar and then activate LoMo. Try to add someone else… crawford, mccutchen types would be nice.
By Ray Flowers on May 14, 2011
Joel – Carpenter/Rollins for Hamels/Castro.
I may be in the minority, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Rollins matched Castro ROTW in fantasy value. I’d greatly prefer Hamels though, so turn the deal down.
If you can do Pineda/Castro for Carpenter/Rollins I like the deal better than the first offer.
By Ricky on May 15, 2011
Ray,
I’m in a 10 team 5×5 h2h. Next week I have Nelson Cruz and Rafael Furcal coming off the DL. I have to drop 2 of the following: Hafner, Crisp, Torii Hunter, Aaron Hill (who furcal would start over), or Ryan Dempster (and I’d have to start Peavy). Which 2 would you drop?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
Ricky – I say it’s time to deal. Leave the guys on DL this week. Try to trade a 2-for-1 deal to open up a roster spot. I’d deal Hafner and Peavy as a start, see what you can get for them.
By Jeff on May 15, 2011
Ray,
I am still trying to fix my pitching. I picked up Penny for Leagues and someone in my league just dropped Dempster. What are your thoughts on picking him up and who would you drop if I did? I am only running with 1 closer, I have 2 on the DL.
Beckett, Bumgarner, Cordero, Duensing, Jurrjens, Morrow, Sanchez, Liriano, Masterson, Penny.
Thanks for the help.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
Jeff – Dempster is a great add. Will post an article about him tomm. I have no idea why anyone would let him go. Dump Duensing who may be headed to the bullpen at some point.
By Matt on May 15, 2011
Ray i was offered a trade: i give up Ichiro, Lowrie and Orlando Cabrera. I get Justin Upton. We start two SS so i would have Bartlett in there and probably pick up the guy on Twins. What do you think?
By Steve on May 15, 2011
Ray
I’m really struggling at catcher for this week in a H2H league. I know you don’t like short term predictions and that you like Suzuki for the long season but who for this week? Suzuki (all games in pitcher’s parks) Ianetta (facing some tough pitchers) or Avila (hasn’t been hitting and might sit for VMart in Pitt)? As always, thanks.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
Matt – Having to start two SS is tough to do. Bartlett is OK, but if you are talking about Casilla, that’s pretty awful fall back. I like the deal if it’s a keep league, but if it’s redraft I wouldn’t do it.
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
Steve – You got it right, I really don’t predict things based on a week of action. Just don’t think you can really do that effectively. Given that group of options, I’d certainly go Suzuki. Second choice is an either or. I’m partial to Iannetta.
By Mark on May 15, 2011
Ray, I know you recently labeled Colby Lewis as a “buy”, but Ryan Dempster is available in our league, who would you rather have for the rest of the season?
By Ray Flowers on May 15, 2011
Mark – I want both guys to be honest. I’d rather have Dempster, but it’s really, really close. I’d bet you could drop a couple of your guys to add both, can’t you?
By Matt on May 15, 2011
Ray…
In a 12 team 5×5 league with multi year contracts and 3 prospect spots. One of my prospects is Jesus Montero. I have Soto on the DL (5 year deal) and Y Molina starting at C right now. The guy bringing up the rear is shopping Joe Mauer, whom he controls through 2012. Thinking of offering Montero for Mauer. I generally would take the proven star but do you think Montero’s ceiling is high enough to keep what I have now instead of chasing Mauer given his odd medical issues?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Matt – The answer depends on your team. Are you playing for right now or building toward the future? Let that be your guide. While I’m not gonna say Montero will outproduce Mauer for years, but four, five, six years from now? It might be Montero given all the issues with the health of Mauer.
By Brian on May 16, 2011
Ray – emailed you earlier saying I traded Texiera for Lester. I have a combo of Helton, Trumbo, D Lee and Rolen as my 1B, 3B, CI spots (I have Bautista but I play him in the OF).
Can I get by with this combo or do I need to try and improve? I have excess pitching to try and deal (Lester, Verlander, Haren, Beckett, A.Sanchez, Bailey, and Bucholtz).
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Brian – Rolen isn’t any good. Since the break last year, he hasn’t even been replacement level at 3B. Helton seems to be really strong, but the power will never come back. He’s just an AVG guy at this point. Trumbo nice pop and very intriguing now that Morales is down for the year. Lee – not sure why he hasn’t come around.
I’d say you have some nice parts there at 1B, but you need some help at 3B.
By Brian on May 16, 2011
Ray – Thanks for the response. I also have Lowrie to play at 3B if I use Reyes at SS, S. Drew at MI, and B. Roberts at 2B. Is Lowrie a good 3B candidate or is he more 2B or MI? What about Roberts? I know he’s slumped lately.
By Alan Siefert on May 16, 2011
Ray,
Good to hear you guys in the morning. I’m in a 10 team Points league where pitching is important. My SP roster is Kershaw, Lester, Billingsley, Garza, Shields, S. Baker, Lewis, Cueto.
Do you suggest offering 2 of my pitchers for a low-end Top 15 guy like a Marcum, Cain, Price, Cahill or should I stay with what I have?
If you like this idea who would you suggest giving up to get a low-end Top 15 guy?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Brian – Lowrie is more of a MI option. While Roberts has struggled greatly, seen what Lowrie has done in May? How about .240/291/.340 line in May. Terrible.
I’d take Roberts over Lowrie, but that’s based solely on history.
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Alan – I need some sleep, starting at 4 AM = I must be crazy.
I would not trade two of your guys for any of the pitchers you listed. Your guys – Garza,Shields, Baker, Lewis, Cueto – aren’t elite, but all of them are very, very solid. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple of them end up outperforming Cahill this season.
I’d stand pat.
By FP on May 16, 2011
Hey Ray! With your schedule from last night and into today I hope that you’re hanging in there. You sound lucid on the Drive this a.m., so good luck with the balance of the day.
I was able to swing the deal of Wright for Lincecum and have move M. Young to 3B and picked up D. Espinosa off wire as a #2 2B in hopes of covering some of the lost offense. Hopefully this will hel me in K’s ERA and WHIP.
Now my rotation this week is Lincecum, Lester, Shields, Kuroda, D. Hudson and Cueto. Two questions…I want to start Kuroda because he gets 2 this week, bu the faces teh hot/cold MIL team which has plagued him in the past so I feel better going with one start Cueto vs PIT. Would you agree?
Second, A. Sanchez is on the wire adn I have first wainver priority this week. Do you see him as a better SP teh ROS over Cueato and should I drop Johnny for A. Sanchez?
Grab a couple of cups of joe and please give me your thoughts.
Sorry about the Sharks last night. Can’t stand the Canuks!
Thanks…
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
FP – I’m hanging tough like New Kids on the Block. I’ll make it through the day. Given myself a new nickname – The Matrix.
I’d still go with Kuroda. Eight starts, five times 2 or fewer earned runs. Really solid option. Tough to bench him at any point in my mind.
Cueto and Sanchez = close. Both have upside and downside (mostly injure related). Best guy likely to be the last one standing. Given the ball yard, I’d go Sanchez, but really close.
By IceholeTour on May 16, 2011
Middle Infield Dilemma.
Ya, it is bad, but of the few out there, how do you rank em and why??
Omar Infante, Ty Wiggington, Justin Turner or Darwin Barney.
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Ice – Infante great cause of his flexibility, but he has no power or speed. If he isn’t hitting .300, he doesn’t have much value.
Wigginton will get a chance to play every day with Stewart out.
Turner – NL only option, likely only a daily player until Ike Davis returns.
Barney is as good as it gets now. All he is doing is putting the bat on the ball, not much upside.
Wigginton, Infante, Barney, Turner
By FP on May 16, 2011
Thank Ray….errrr I mean Thanks “The Matrix”! Are you multi-tasking while doing the radio show?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
FP – No comment.
By Erik on May 16, 2011
Ray, (great radio show/website by the way) I am 20 points out of 9th place (seriously) in a 10 team league and need to shake things up or jump off a rooftop. I need SBs and a pitcher that can strike batters out.
I am giving up
Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn and Madison Bumgarner
I am getting
Jose Reyes, Nelson Cruz, Max Scherzer
Cruz should be back in the next week -10 days. Let me know what you think. Crawford seems lost and hasn’t attempted a steal in a while.Thks!
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Erik – Glad you enjoy the show and the site my friend.
Can Cruz stay healthy? That’s what this is all about. If he does stay healthy, will he run since legs continue to be an issue.
Scherzer is an improvement over MadBum for sure. I’m still gonna say hold on to Crawford/Dunn, but I won’t dispute that this is a fair deal.
By Chaka on May 16, 2011
Ray confuse Chaka being on the drive at 8:00 EST this morning! Chaka recover from confusion and have 2 question:
From this day forward:
Russell Martin VS Alex Avila
and
Justin Smoak VS Alfonso Soriano VS Logan Morrison
Looking overall production in the HR/RBI/AVG categories.
By Mark on May 16, 2011
Ray, Thanks for all of your help, but I have one more question. Earlier you recommended I pick up Dempster, keep Colby Lewis, and drop someone else. I am in a 10 team h2h league that starts 3 utility players (there are 9 hitting catagories and 8 pitching)and so my dilemma is do I drop another pitcher for Dempster or drop a hitter? I am first in the league, but always looking to improve.
My pitching staff currently consist of: Cliff Lee, Z. Greinke, J. Beckett, R. Nolasco, and C. Lewis with H. Bell and J. Soria as my closers.
My line up looks like this: A. Gonzalez(1B), B. Roberts(2B), J. Rollins(ss), P. Alvarez(3b), M. Napoli(c), R. Braun, J. Ellsbury, and J. Werth (of), P. Fielder, C. Granderson, A. Gordon (utility), with A. Hill and A. Lind on my bench.
Roberts injury history makes me want to keep Hill and with Lind currently day-to-day I am losing a roster spot too. Would you drop anyone for Dempster or sit tight?
By Patrick on May 16, 2011
Ray,
I’m hoping you can shed some light on the status of Jason Bourgeois for me. I’m holding onto him in a couple of leagues, and am wondering if I can expect him back in action next Monday when he’s eligible or if his injury is more than that; there seems to be very little info out there that I can find.
Also, in general how would you expect an oblique injury to affect him once he does get back in the lineup? Do you expect he’ll be able to pick up where he left off, or could this cut into his production for a few weeks/months?
Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Chaka – Ray confuse AM with PM on clock. j/k It was just a one day fill in this morning on Sirius/XM.
Give me Avila. Martin has disappeared the last two weeks and suddenly looks like the struggler of the past two years all over again (17 games, one HR as an example).
Smoak- Solid power/avg combo. Seems to not be overly affected by Safeco, but it does worry me.
Soriano- Best power bat. Doesn’t run anymore, and his Avg. won’t help.
LoMo- Strong hitter with excellent plate discipline. Don’t think he is a 20 HR threat though despite hot start.
Soriano for power, LoMo for average, Smoak for best combo.
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Mark – Dempster and Lewis have made me look smart the past couple of weeks. Hope they keep it up.
I agree with you on BRob and injuries – having a backup makes sense. He has also looked horrible in May. Keep Hill.
I know Lind and that back have been annoying, but you know you can’t drop him. Hopefully he’ll play or hit the DL soon.
With such shallow rosters, I really don’t see an obvious drop to add Dempster. Given that you are also in a 10 team league, there will always be solid options you can pick up off waivers since it looks like your rosters are so shallow (my leagues generally start 23 players and are 12 or 15 teams). You can just rotate guys weekly if you want, maybe Lewis/Dempster based on matchup. However, if you are looking for a long term answer, the only one I would move for Dempster would be Lewis.
By Mark on May 16, 2011
Thanks Ray, I appreciate the advice!
By FP on May 16, 2011
Ray, I understand your support of Dempster as his overblown stats get back to normal. He does pitch in the NL Central (advantage) but he plays for CHC and pitches in Wrigley 1/2 his starts. So will he just be K’s with a 4 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP? Do you see him out performing Cueto and/or A. Sanchez?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
FP – Last 3 years dempster has avg. 14 wins, 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP with 189 Ks. I think all those numbers are capable of being reached this year.
You say “only K’s, 4 ERA and 1.35 WHIP…”
Cueto has NEVER done that.
Sanchez has NEVER done that.
Neither has ever had 160 Ks in a season.
Just keep that in mind.
By FP on May 16, 2011
Well, I can’t (and wouldn’t)argue with those facts. Thanks “Matrix”.