Hurlers to Hold?
May 16th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Are pitchers performing as expected? For that matter, will they continue along their current path? In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on five hurlers and let you know whether or not I have faith in them being big time contributors to your fantasy squad the rest of the way.
Madison Bumgarner: The Giants’ young lefty is 0-6 and has started off horribly. Or has he? Each of his last four appearances have resulted in a “quality start” as he has produced a 1.80 ERA an a 1.00 WHIP in that time. MadBum, as he is affectionately known, also has a strong 9.00 K/9 mark and a 4.17 K/BB ratio in those four trips out to the bump. If his current owner is dismayed because of his ghastly record, or middling overall WHIP of 1.42, now is the time to bounce cause Bumgarner is back after a terrible start.
Jeremy Hellickson: The Rays’ rookie has won three straight starts and has gone 14 scoreless innings in his last two outings to drop his ERA to 2.98. All of a sudden, everyone is taking notice again almost as if they forgot that this guy was one of the top-10 prospects in baseball heading into the year. I’m concerned a bit that his K/9 rate is under six, especially when his BB/9 rate is so average (3.57), to say nothing of his poor 0.87 GB/FB. Basically everything he has done to this point suggests a “league average” fantasy performer, despite his wonderful last two outings. Hellickson’s understanding of pitching is elite for someone who hasn’t even thrown 85 innings as a big league so perhaps he will be able to work his way around some less than stellar measurables, but be wary – he’s not yet the pitcher he will be one day.
Phil Humber: The White Sox don’t want to remove Humber from the rotation so they are foolishly going with a 6-man rotation (I yearn for the days of 4-man rotations, so the Sox are going in the wrong direction here). Humber has a 3.18 ERA and 0.95 WHIP so you can see why the Sox want to keep throwing him, but it’s smoke and mirrors. His GB/FB ratio of 0.95 is below league average. His 5.16 K/9 is below big league average. His HR/9 mark of 0.40 is half of his career rate (0.84). His BABIP of .213 is .065 points below his career rate despite a line drive rate that is just one percent off normal. I’m not taking what he has done away from him, I’m just pointing out that it would be a minor miracle if he was able to keep up this level of performance over the course of the season.
Jason Marquis: Really? Do I need to even address Marquis? Quickly – he is a league average pitcher at best. He never strikes anyone out – he hasn’t had a K/9 mark of 6.00 since 2004, and despite his current walk rate of 1.69 per nine, he is completely average in that realm as well (his BB/9 mark has been at least 3.00 every one of his previous 11 seasons). It’s really as simple as that. He’s not the guy who posted a 6.60 ERA last year, but he’s also not going to post his first sub 4.00 ERA since 2004 either. He’s a passable spot starter in a mixed league if you are desperate, but he’s likely to be nothing more than an innings eater in an NL-only format.
Alexei Ogando: One word – phenomenal. Through seven starts Ogando has gone at least six innings each time out, and only once has he allowed more than two earned runs leading to a 2.06 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. However, you don’t need me to tell you that there is no way he can perform this well all season, but here is the proof. (1) His K/9 rate is down two full batters from last season though he’s somehow managed to lower his walk rate by a batter and a half. (2) His homer rate is triple what it was last season. The two most damning numbers follow. (3) Ogando has a .193 BABIP. There is NO way that number stays that low. I don’t normally make such declarative statements like that, but I’m 100 percent convinced. Why? Somehow Ogando has undershot the big league BABIP average by .100 points even though his line drive rate is two percent above the big league average (21.8 percent). Simply, the dude has been exceedingly lucky. Amazingly so actually. (4) Ogando has a left on base percentage of 95 percent. While the big league average is 70 percent, a couple of guys each year crest 80 percent. Still, 95 percent is a level that is impossible to sustain, a fact that is driven home by his xFIP mark of 3.91. Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alezxi Ogando, Jason Marquis, Jeremy Hellickson, Madison Bumgarner, Phil Humber
By tourinct on May 16, 2011
Carpenter just hit the waiver wire in 12 team 5×5 roto league. Would you drop any of Romero, Lilly, Danks, Cahill or Lewis?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Tour- I would not drop any of those five to add Carp. However, you need to add him. Drop someone else. If stuck, drop Lilly.
By SNK on May 16, 2011
Do I start Heyward and hope for the healthiest this week or go ahead and move Tabata in to fill the spot or go grab Kosmer? Kosmer is still out there, do I drop Smoak for him?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
SNK – First off it’s Hosmer with an H. Second, if you are in a 12 team league he should not be on waivers – but you don’t want to drop Smoak either. Third, Heyward hopes to play tuesday, but there are no certainties. Fourth, Tabata has been awful the past three weeks.
By SNK on May 16, 2011
Thanks Ray. My apologies for the typo, knew it was Hosmer. It is a 10 team head to head and that was my concern, let go of Smoak for Hosmer? But you bring the awful Tabata scenario, do I give up the steal potential for Hosmer?
By Will on May 16, 2011
Two questions: 1. Is this the year that Homer Bailey finally puts it all together? and 2. Is it worth picking up Dustin Ackley in a 10 team 5×5 if you have a weak middle infield. The Mariners have to call him up in June, right?
By Michael on May 16, 2011
Daily league – roll with Price and Shields today and tomorrow against the Yankees? Or hold off and only use them against the Marlins later this weekend?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Will – Bailey needs to show me a lot more than two good games against the Astros. Big arm, big talent, still just 25. He has to stay healthy and remain consistent. To this point of his career, he has been unable to do that, though he was really good in the second half last year.
Ackley is not a difference maker at this point in a 10 team mixed league. He should steal a few bases, and produce a solid average, but even as a MI option, I fear he might be stretched a bit thin in a 10 teamer. You can add now and try to trade, or hope he goes nuts though. And yes, I assume a June callup is in the cards after the report today.
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Michael – When in doubt, I bench starters. You don’t want them to get lit up and ruin your team. Less an issues in roto leagues vs. the H2H setup. Still, both have looked so strong this year I would give serious consideration to rolling with them both – though like I always say, I never like trying to make predictions based on just one outing.
By charlie on May 16, 2011
Ray
Should i pick up r. hernadez Catcher for the reds? I have napoli , its a 10man league total points .
and who should i drop
francor?
cory hart? or napoli??
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Charlie – Hernandez has been hot this year. Hanigan is also dealing with an injury. Still, the duo will continue to share looks moving forward limiting their value. Hernandez likely only a second option at catcher because he doesn’t play.
If you are going to drop Francoeur/Hart, I would package the two of them together and try to get one solid player.
By brad on May 16, 2011
do you think bernadina and coghlan for tori hunter to much to give up will pick up dirks or nixs best two waiver wire outfielders to pick up.
what about pierre and ross for roberts would replace sizemore at 2nd base also ibanez end of year numbers do you think he will have
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Brad – Nix and Dirks not loving them at all. So if its Dirks/Hunter for Bernandina/Coghlan…
I like Bernandina. He has 15/15 potential, and seems locked in to leadoff role for Nats. Coghlan is solid, but not much speed, not much power.
Hunter is the best option here, but with the lack of support, I’d choose the other two, but not thrilled about it.
Ibanez = nothing better than what he did last year.
Pierre/Ross for BRoberts = too much to give. Tell the other person that Roberts is hitting .145 in May.
By Jason on May 16, 2011
Ray: I threw out an offer to the guy holding on to Votto not expecting a response, but he told me that he is looking at Kemp in return for Votto. My current 1B are Smoak and C. Lee. If I moved Kemp I would be left with Pence, Coghlan and C. Lee to fill 3 OF spots (Berkman is filling my DH spot). Is Votto that much better than Kemp, or should I hold on to Kemp to keep my OF stronger?
12-team H2H, 5 keepers, btw. Thanks!
By Ricky on May 16, 2011
Random Question – Best 5 hitters in baseball: Pujols, Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Bautista. Agree or disagree?
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Ricky – Have this debate all the time with Bautista.
He he has been best guy to this point without a doubt. Can’t list him as top-5 though, just can’t.
I CANNOT call a guy one of the five best hitters in baseball if he has:
NEVER, not one single time, had a .380 OBP or ever hit .265.
Everyone is out of their mind with Bautista love. Think about that.
He has never hit even .265 in a season.
By brad on May 16, 2011
forgot to mention i have guiterez coming back this week and beed to open spot so hunter guiterez are the two that replace coghlan bernadina but i also think its a a bit much thanks for your help
did make trade yesterday to strenghten bullpen have madison lidge broxton and soria so traded dunn for valverde and ibanez could get your opinion before i made deal i still would like your opinion though and thats why trying to get hunter to make up for power lastly picking up colmeyer to replace betencourt bad move or good. thanks again
By Tyler on May 16, 2011
Ray-
I have Ubaldo and Carpenter on my squad, would either one be droppable at this point for either Colby Lewis, J. Hellickson or someone else who is likely to be a FA? I just cant seem to pull the trigger despite how bad they have been…Thanks, go Sharks!
By Joe on May 16, 2011
Ray ~ With third base getting riddled with injuries and not much on the waiver wire. I have Alex Gordon, Youkillis and sandoval (DL) who i can make a trade with. I was thinking of trading Youkillis because he has the most value…I’m shooting for an elite outfielder.
Do you think Gordon can keep this up? I can also add Callaspo as a filler till Sandoval comes back. Thanks for all your help
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Jason – Votto is a safer option than Kemp. He understands the strike zone better, will likely hit for more homers and a better average, not to mention more RBI. However, Kemp could best him in average, and could easily double him in steals. Both are elite options.
In a league where you start 3 OFs, Pence, Berkman, C. Lee is barely passable, and Coghlan at UT is poor. If Berkman regresses as he should, that will leave your OF thin. Without knowing your lineup, doesn’t seem like your OFs other than Kemp have much speed, so you might be best served standing pat.
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Tyler – You saw my thoughts on Hellickson in the piece. Here are my thoughts on Carpenter – http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/12/buy-or-sell-nl-version/
Lewis – http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/11/buy-or-sell-al-version/
Ubaldo has a mechanical issue. I believe he will be fine.
By Ray Flowers on May 16, 2011
Joe – I do not think Gordon can keep this up. Already dying. First 12 games in May .178 with .529 OPS. I would not count on him.
Callaspo is a decent “filler” option. Won’t do anything great, but solid.
You had better get an elite option in the OF if you move Youkilis because your 3B space would be replacement level if you did the deal.
By cameron on May 17, 2011
hey ray,
what do you think kendrys morales’s keeper value is for 2012, is he worth hanging onto in my DL spot?? (i’ve got furcal taking up a bench spot now since strasburg is in my other DL slot) how scared are you of his injury? I’m interested in your thoughts on a potential comeback and if he will ever again be able to duplicate or improve on those 2009 numbers. thanks.
By Brian on May 17, 2011
Ray – I traded Haren for Justin Upton. Good Deal?
It allows me to put Bautista back at 3rd instead of the OF (had Lowrie/Rolen there). So now my OF is Crawford, McCutchen, Upton, C. Young, and Moreland. I still have a top 5 of Lester, Verlander, Beckett, Bucholtz, and A. Sanchez.
I feel I improved my team (infield is also Bautista, Reyes, B. Roberts, and Helton) because I had pitching to spare but wondering if you thought I got good value for Haren. Other offer I turned down was Verlander for Pence; I prefer Upton to Pence.
By Jim on May 17, 2011
Ray,
The 2 Jakes dilemma: Peavy or Arrieta
Thanks,
Jim
By Chaka on May 17, 2011
Ray, in case Chaka gets jumped on Avila on the waiver wire…is Johathan Lucroy someone to look at over Russell Martin? Lucroy’s numbers for production are almost identical: (Lucroy 25/75 with 10/3/15/0 Avila 20/76 with 9/3/15/1). Martin has a few more runs scored and 1 more HR but a .246. Go upside on Lucroy over R. Martin if Avila is swiped?
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Jim – Maybe, maybe Peavy returns to his previous levels, but I’m not buying right now. He’s coming back off a surgery that pitchers just dont have. No telling where he is at physically, or when he will be back to full strength (it might not be til next season). I’ll take the youngster who is healthy.
By FP on May 17, 2011
Hey Ray…sleeping in? Anyway, 10 team roto ML. I have OF of Sizemore, Stanton, Choo, D. Youn and T. Hunter with A. Torres playing at U. I am concerned with Hunter due to his age and no offensive support in the lineup, adn as far as Delmon goes he has no suppport adn the history of a bad attitude (mailing it in). I was counting on Young adn Hunter for HR/RBI and I do not want to lose power number but I am looking at Brantley and Tabata on the wire and wondering if I should make a cahnge. Your thoughts? Thanks!
By Alan on May 17, 2011
Ray,
I’m currently in 2nd place in a 5×5 10 team Mixed league and a guy who is in 9th place offered me Rickie Weeks, Jimmy Rollins and Nelson Cruz for Robinson Cano and Russell Martin. What are your thoughts?
The rest of my roster looks like this:
C-V. Martinez, 1B-Cabrera, 2B-Cano, 3B-Wright, SS-Jeter, OF-Holliday, OF-Kemp, OF-Heyward, UT-Walker, UT-Span, Lowrie, R. Roberts,
By Mark on May 17, 2011
Ray,
I was offered McCutchen/Leo Nunez for B.J. Upton/Jeremy Hellickson…should I take this deal? Hellickson has RP elgibility, which helps me load up on starters in a head to head league.
I like McCutchen a little more than Upton, but am unsure if trading Hellickson for a closer is worth essentially getting a slightly better player at the same position.
By Pablo on May 17, 2011
Hi Ray – who’s the better option off the waiver wire? J.Zimmermann or Arietta? Standard 5×5 roto 12 team mixed.
By ricky on May 17, 2011
thoughts on Anibel Sanchez. Avaialbe in my 9-team NL keeper league. Him or Dillon Gee?
By steven on May 17, 2011
Ray,
would you pickup Jake Arrieta and drop ted Lilly.I need help strikeouts
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
FP – Wondering, how many times can you spell and “adn”? j/k
Your OF could use a boost.
Sizemore on DL.
Choo underperforming.
Young starting slow.
Hunter slow start, not much going on there.
Tabata and Brantley are speed options. Neither has the all around skills of Hunter, but his age is a concern. You dont have much speed at all in that OF group, so go ahead and add a burner – Brantley going well now, I still like Tabata long term.
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Alan – I wrote about Martin the other day: http://www.rotoinfo.com/blog/fantasy-baseball-2011-diamond-of-late.html
Do this deal.
Cano is elite, and while I dont think any of the guys you are getting back qualify as that, all are B+ type options. That’s just too much really good not to give up one great.
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Mark – I dont like H2H leagues, but in this setup Hellickson having dual elig. is a big deal.Still, Nunez is perfect on saves and seems totally locked in. I like Upton a lot, but I’d prefer McC – and he is just starting to get hot.
I agree with you on McC over Upton, and I’d do the deal for Nunez – though you’ll have to make that decision since I don’t know your scoring setup.
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Pablo – Zimmerman is the arm that I would grab. He has more upside in the K category, and it can’t hurt that he also has the advantage in experience in the bigs either.
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Steven – if you need Ks, Arrieta isn’t the best option. He does have an 8 K/9 mark right now, but he has been a under that mark the last two years in Triple-A so it’s tough to posit that he will continue to be that effective in the bigs.
Lilly hasn’t been under 6.8 ever, so I have to think his current mark will rebound.
By FP on May 17, 2011
Yeah Ray….typing words such as “the” as “teh”; “and” as “adn”, “would” as “woudl” are just a special talent of mine. Guess I’m Lysdexic.
Thanks for all of the great advice and I love the XM/Sirius show!
By Will on May 17, 2011
Ray,
Morneau/Rios or Carlos Gonzalez/Coco Crisp. Which combo do you like better in a 5×5?
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Will – I have NO faith in Morneau, none. This is a one sided deal. You gotta go with CarGo and Coco.
By BVtime on May 17, 2011
I have Granderson, looking to sell high. In My OF I also have Beltran, CarGo, Choo, and Hamilton. I want James Shields. How much more than Shields should I expect back (H2H league)
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
BVT – You can ask for more, but the thing is, right now, Shields is a top-10 pitcher. Gonna be hard to get back more than that for Granderson even with Granderson’s hot start.
By BVtime on May 17, 2011
Should I do it Granderson for Shields?
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
BVT- how many OFs do you start? How many teams in league? What’s your staff look like?
By Ricky on May 17, 2011
10 team league 5×5 would you trade stanton and jed lowrie for roy oswalt and darwin barney?
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Ricky – Barney is basically the new version of Ryan Theriot. He’s decent, but there isn’t much to get excited about. Oswalt, always like him, a potential top-20 arm.
Stanton has prodigious power, and could hit 30 HRs, though Ks are gonna keep average down. Lowrie, as you can tell, not a huge fan.
Bottom line for me. In a 10 teamer, I dont think you’ll want to count on Barney or Lowrie this season (though Lowrie seems like better bet). Stanton has nice power, Oswalt big arm.
Answer to the question is question – do you need power or pitching?
By ricky on May 18, 2011
To the barney oswalt for lowrie and stanton trade. My pitchers are price, jsanchez, ogando, bud norris, kimbrel, farnsworth, jhoulys and lohse. And main hitters are votto, tulo, crawford, kubel, longoria, starlin
By Rob on May 18, 2011
Hi Ray,
I’m a big fan of Napoli, and I believe you are as well. I know there was a time earlier in the season when you were getting pounded by Napoli questions. I want to bring you back to that time now…
I’m in a 10 team H2H points league. As much as I like the guy’s power potential in my catcher spot, he’s underwhelmed since his hot start…
He’s not getting consistent playing time and he’s not crushing the ball enough when he does make it to the plate.
Because of our points system, I’m contemplating the notion that it may pay off in my weekly H2H points system to drop Napoli for Suzuki who’s seeing the plate much more often. I know, I hate to do it but is Napoli really going to provide more points for my team than Suzuki?
Talk me off of this ledge or push me over – Stick with Napoli or drop for Suzuki?
The little voice in my head is telling me Napster’s bat is going to start lighting up the Texas sky when it gets warmer…but I hate seeing that he’s out of the lineup so often!
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Ricky – You cannot count on Ogando or Lohse to keep this up. Neither will. So go get Oswalt to bolster the staff.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Rob – You are correct. I like Napoli. The Rangers screwed it all up. You are also right that he has NO business starting in a 10 team league unless you play 2 catchers. He hasn’t been worthwhile in the spot for a month. Suzuki is a better option in a points league that sets weekly lineups. You know he will play at least 4 of 5 games.
Honestly, I would have made this move a month ago. Long overdue in my mind… jump!
By bvtime on May 18, 2011
We start three OF nd a utility. 10 teams. I have kershaw, Price, gallardo, marcum, ogando, kennedy, storen, and chacin
By Ricky S on May 18, 2011
Ray,
Since there seems to be 3 or 4 Ricky’s asking you questions, I’ll deem myself “Ricky S”.
Anyways I made a 3 for 3 trade and I wanted to get your thoughts, especially after you answered my Morneau question:
I traded Morneau, Alex Rios, and Joel Hanrahan and I got Carlos Gonzalez, Coco Crisp and Fernando Salas. My pitching was pretty good before (JJ, Weaver, Marcum, Gio Gonzalez) and I also have Jordan Walden and Marmol. Was that trade worth it?
By cameron on May 18, 2011
hey ray,
what do you think kendrys morales’s keeper value is for 2012, is he worth hanging onto in my DL spot?? (i’ve got furcal taking up a bench spot now since strasburg is in my other DL slot) how scared are you of his injury? I’m interested in your thoughts on a potential comeback and if he will ever again be able to duplicate or improve on those 2009 numbers. thanks.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Cameron – Kendrys has no keeper value at all, unless it’s totally on the cheap. If you can keep him in a DL spot, go for it. But at this point there is no timeline for his recovery – estimates are at least six months, but it very well could be longer. I don’t know if we will ever see the 30-100 guy again.
By Joel on May 18, 2011
Ray, in my 6×6 h2h league my OFs are Braun, Kemp, Mike Stanton, Rajai davis and Torriii Hunter. My SPs are Hamels, Marcum, carpenter, brett anderson, Anibal, CJ wilson and Zimmerman. I also have Pujols, Rollins, Prado and Youk.
I’ve been offered Colby Rasmus and Clayton Kershaw for Matt Kemp.
What do u think? I like Kershaw, and I may have enough total offense to take the downgrade from Kemp to Rasmus. Should I do it?
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Ricky S- I’d prefer Hanrahan over Salas. Give me Crisp over Morneau. Give me CarGo over Rios.
I have no issue with the hitter section of the deal.
As for closers — Walden has been horrible of late allowing runs in five of nine outings, and blowing three of his last five chances. Adding to him Salas, who has looked really good but is far from a lock to hold the 9th inning role, is a risk.
On balance, seems like a solid deal.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Joel – Ramus is no Kemp, but he is a solid bat that would be a nice add to your OF. Kershaw is an elite arm. I worry about Anderson/Sanchez staying healthy, and Zimmerman is having his innings limited. Adding Kershaw would be a solid get for you. There’s no problem with doing this deal if you feel your offense can stand the step down from Kemp to Rasmus.
By rutherford on May 31, 2011
thoughts on: Chapman and Jansen…will they come back and be worth keeping?
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Rutherford – Answer to your question is how deep is your league, and how deep are the rosters? Both Chapman and Jansen will be back at some point, perhaps relatively soon. Still, even when that happens, neither appears to have a directly line to closing, so both are only arms you should probably be looking at if you are in a 15 team mixed league. If you’re in a league that counts holds that’s of course a different story. If you are in a keeper league, then yes, I’d hold on to both – they have huge arms.
By rutherford on May 31, 2011
4×4 (era/whip/saves/wins), 9 team NL only, keeper.
Sounds like they should be keepers.
Thanks
By rutherford on Jun 13, 2011
isringhausen?? Buy?…NL 4×4, 9-team
By Mark from Chicago on Jun 13, 2011
Brandon Morrow: i’ve held on to him from day 1 and i’m on the fantasy ledge and don’t think you can talk me down. The nearly 6.00 ERA and high WHIP that gets worse every week is killing my stats and for every outing where he resembles Nolan Ryan, there’s 3-4 bad ones in between. Do you recommend dumping him now for a Ted Lilly, Volquez, Collmenter or Dillon Gee? Thanks for your input (again). !! Great stuff.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
Rutherford – At some point the Mets figure to deal KRod. Looks like Isringhausen is in line to work the 9th if that happens. I don’t have much faith in him staying healthy, but he’s probably a risk worth taking.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
Mark from CHI – He’s certainly frustrating, but he’s pitching nearly identical to how he did last season. Morrow is just like that – huge arm, but inconsistent. Still, he’s at 10.9 K/9, that’s a huge total.
Volquez is just as inconsistent. That wouldn’t help.
Lilly is interesting. Always overlooked, always productive. His ratios are solid, won’t kill you like Morrow, and he (Lilly) always has a strong WHIP.
Collmenter is totally luck driven. Bottom falling out on that one soon, just like with Tomlin.
Gee is lg. avg in K, BB rates. He gets a good deal of ground balls, but his ERA should be a run higher than it is.
I’d stay with Morrow – he has the best arm.