Mailbag: May 17, 2011
May 17th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Martin Prado vs. Howie Kendrick – how close is it?
– @kevingilmore3
I love this question. It’s kind of like asking – Kim Kardashian or Sofia Vergara? You really can’t go wrong either way. In fact, let’s be honest, you’d take either one home to meet mamma and feel pretty good about it.
Eligibility
M. Prado: Qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF
Kendrick: Qualifies at 2B. In most leagues he is also 1B eligible, and possibly OF (he’s played six games there this season).
Career Numbers
M. Prado: .305/.354/.454
Kendrick: .296/.331/.431
Pretty darn close, eh?
Career Numbers (per 500 ABs)
M. Prado: .305-11-60-76-3
Kendrick: .296-9-61-66-12
Pretty darn close yet again.
2011 Numbers
M. Prado: .305-6-27-28-1
Kendrick: .310-6-17-29-4
I know I’m supposed to be the expert and have all the answers, but in this case there may not be a definitive answer. Like I said, how do you choose between Kardashian and Vergara?
Ah hell, give me Vergara and Kendrick.
Jed Lowrie or Mike Aviles? Looking for a David Wright replacement.
– @itsthejohnes
I bet it would surprise a lot of people out there to learn that Aviles has more homers (five to three), RBI (26 to 18) and steals (eight to zero) than Lowrie. Don’t overlook how significant that difference in the steals department is either, it makes up for the massive gap in their batting average right now (.243 to .320).
Lowrie hit .368 in April. He is hitting .259 in May.
Lowrie had a .389 OBP in April. That mark is .317 in May.
Lowrie had a .574 SLG in April. That mark is .407 in May.
Lowrie had a K-rate of 16 percent in April. That mark is 28 percent in May.
You get the point.
A middle infield option who is hitting .320 is a fine addition to any squad, but what if that same player hits 12 homers and doesn’t steal a single base? That’s the pace that Lowrie is on for those of you who haven’t been keeping track.
Aviles owns a career .292 average, so where did those extra .050 points go? His BABIP is .253, only .067 points below his career level, as he has struggled to hit the ball on the screws. Aviles has posted line drive rates of 20.2, 18.9 and 18.8 percent the past three years which seems to strongly suggest that he won’t continue to struggle along at 11.6 percent. The problem right now is that he has jacked up his fly ball rate by 13 percent. Aviles would do well to remember that he is a 12-15 homer bat. If he continues to hit 50 percent of his balls sky ward success could elude him.
Lowrie is second base and shortstop eligible while Aviles is second base as well as third base eligible in almost every league, so there is no advantage there for either player. Given that Aviles is the only one who runs, and that he owns a .292 career average (Lowrie is at .266), I’m going with Aviles if I have to choose one.
Is it time to cash in on Curtis Granderson’s hot start?
– @rickyhelsel
If it weren’t for the ridiculously hot Jose Bautista, Granderson would be leading baseball in home runs as Granderson has 14 homers through 39 games putting him on pace to obliterate his career best mark of 30 long balls. Granderson is already roughly 40 percent to his carer best of 74 RBI with 31. Toss in a .993 OPS, .080 points clear of anything he has ever done before, and you should be considering selling high on the Yankees’ outfielder.
Granderson has a 53 percent fly ball rate. Not only would that be a career-high, it would blow past his 44 percent career mark. Granderson also has a 25 percent HR/F mark. He’s never posted a mark above 14.5 percent in a full season, and his current mark is nearly double his career rate of 13.2 percent. Can we reasonably expect both of those trends to continue? Not in my world.
All of the extra fly balls also create an issue in the batting average category. After hitting .249 and .247 the past two years the inclination when you see his .280 mark this year is that he has figured things out and is back on course. However, the data doesn’t really support that position. Granderson is within a percentage point of his career walk rate, and his current K-rate of 25.9 percent would be a five year worst. He’s also, partially because of the extra fly balls, posting a career worst 15.1 percent line drive rate. Putting all of that data together would seem to suggest that Curtis will have a hard time hitting .280 this season unless he changes his approach.
So would I trade him? I trade anyone on my roster if the right offer came along so I’m certainly not going to say you should hold on to a guy who it would seem is in line for a reduction in production the rest of the way.
Mark Reynolds or Brett Wallace the rest of the way?
– @gregory671
On the surface this seems like a preposterous question since Wallace is hitting .323 and Reynolds .191, but when you look a bit deeper, it’s a fair question – and no, I’m not faded from pulling back four Mai Tai’s this morning. Look at the other four fantasy categories.
Wallace: two homers, 12 RBI, 20 Runs, one steal
Reynolds: five homers, 19 RBI, 17 runs, one steal
You’re probably still skeptical. How about we look at how each guy has done in the month of May.
Wallace: .200-1-3-5 with a .600 OPS
Reynolds: .229-3-5-7 with a .800 OPS
Still not convinced, right? Does history mean anything to you? Obviously you can’t directly compare Reynolds to Wallace in that respect since Wallace has never played a full season, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t mean something when it comes to Reynolds. Yes, he is a dreadful option the batting average category, perhaps a debilitating one, but don’t forget these facts.
1- Reynolds has produced an average of 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs the past three years. All told he was first amongst third basemen in homers, fourth in RBI and second in runs from 2008-10.
2- Reynolds has hit 37 homers with 104 RBI and 96 runs since the start of the 2010 season. Those numbers place him second amongst third basemen in homers, sixth in RBI and sixth in runs scored.
Do you take a chance on a guy who seems destined to hit 30 homers while struggling to hit .240?
As I warned back on April 28th in 2011 Player Profile: Justin Smoak and Brett Wallace, I’d be wary of overestimating the hot start of Wallace. That doesn’t mean he is waiver-wire fodder, but the fact of the matter is that to this point of the season Wallace has really been nothing other than an empty batting average producer. If I needed batting average on my squad I’d take Wallace, but if I was looking at rostering the player who will have the most fantasy value from this point forward, give me Reynolds.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Brett Wallace, Curtis Granderson, Howie Kendrick, Jed Lowrie, Kim Kardashian, Mark Reynolds, Martin Prado, Mike Aviles, Sofia Vergara
By Dave on May 17, 2011
Just a note about the radio show.
I want to compliment you guys on the 5pm show. It is a great show, with great content and useful information, with just enough banter to keep it interesting and make the listeners feel like they “know” you folks a bit.
I listen to the morning drive show, and have to say that it is pretty close to useless, which makes no sense because they have the benefit of being able to recap games and break news (especially for west coast games that end late).
Where the morning show is about 85% schtick, and 15% content, you guys are about 90% content and 10% fun.
Keep up the great work, and if you get time maybe you can write the morning crew a little “how to” manual….
By Rickey on May 17, 2011
Thanks for the help on Granderson, the team I have him on sure could use some help – so I’ll welcome what he can bring my team.
@Dave: Regarding the morning show, they’re not bad. I think that they try a little too hard sometimes to put some energy into the show, and while it may seem artificial at times – I still find it uplifting while I’m on my morning trek to school or work. You have to remember that Ray and Kyle have Kay to spark the show with energy. She’s a huge asset that the morning guys don’t have, perhaps when an energetic show is needed the most. Kyle is really good about letting Ray and Kay do their own things (respectively) while guiding the show. Scott (on the morning show) takes the spot-light, which doesn’t leave Adam with the amount of time Ray has to bitch-slap us with statistical proof and history.
The morning show has KISS and “HOW YA DOIN’ BOY!?”, while the Drive has “YA GOTSTA KNOW!” and Randoms for Ray. The two shows are just different (in terms of staff, content and approach), but both good in their own right.
By Chaka on May 17, 2011
Oh…..pencil Chaka in for an order of Sofia Vergara! Mrrrrrrow!!!
By FP on May 17, 2011
Ray,
Based upon his recent slight upswing in batting and his 3 year avereage of R, HR and RBI would you drop either T. Hunter or Delmon for M. Reynolds to be used at U in a 10 team 5×5 roto?
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Dave – Thanks for the kind words about the radio show. We do our best to craft a show that is both entertaining and informative. We want everyone to feel like they “know” us – so it’s great to hear that it’s coming across that way.
Thank you much my friend.
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Rickey – so wait, I dont bring any energy? j/k
Hopefully the Granderson advice will help you a bit.
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
FP – Reynolds I like, you read the article. Still, his AVG will be a huge hinderence. Can your team handle that? The other two, while not the power options, should both provide a much better average base.
In a 10 team league, it’s tough to be counting on any of these three right now.
By Ricky S on May 17, 2011
Ray,
First of all I want to say thanks for all your help so far. I appreciate the timely answers, and you definitely are my favorite fantasy baseball analyst out there.
Secondly, I wanted to get your thoughts on a few things:
1. I know you have been weary of Justin Morneau since the start of the year (for good reason). Let me tell you, I was watching him a few weeks ago and he still looked concussed. He was swinging off his back foot and looked like a minor league hitter. He seems to have gained weight since his illness and now looks locked in at the plate. This is evident by the fact that he quietly is on a 5 game hit streak and has hit in 6 of his last 7. I guess my question is, would you take the over/under on him hitting .300 with 20 HR for the rest of the season?
2. For the rest of the year, would you rather have Shaun Marcum or Gio Gonzalez in a 5×5 league?
Thanks again for all your help.
By Bob on May 17, 2011
Thanks for the nice picture of Sofia, she can use the feather duster on my head board anytime.
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Ricky – Glad I can help you to enjoy your time playing fantasy sports.
1 – .300 with 20 HR for Morneau the rest of the way? I’d say 10%. I just cannot envision a scenario in which that will occur. Just can’t. Maybe he surprises, but he hasn’t been an effective big league hitter in 10 months.
2 – Give me Marcum. He’s simply a more stable option, plus he pitches in the NL.
Marcum has a better K-rate right now, but the real difference is his ability to throw strikes. Gio G still has huge bouts of wildness, Marcum rarely does that.
By Alan on May 17, 2011
Ray,
Today must be the day for trades for me cause I got a trade offer in my 10 team Points league. They are offering me Ryan Howard and Roy Oswalt for Joey Votto. What are your thoughts? What SP should I drop if I add Oswalt?
Here is my team:
Soto, Votto, Pedroia, Youkillis, H. Ramirez, McGehee, McCutchen, Bruce, A. Jones, Choo, Huff, Span, Barney, Alvarez, I. Davis, Barajas
Lester, Kershaw, Billingsley, Shields, Garza, Lewis, Cueto, Baker, Axford, Wilson
By Ray Flowers on May 17, 2011
Alan – Howard/Oswalt for Votto.
First off, I’d drop Cueto here. Issue though. He is so hot right now, it would be better to do a double dip, something like trading Baker/Cueto for — a stud. Find a team that has an ace but poor pitching depth.
For deal, you obviously lose a ton in AVG, but Howard should match in counting categories. Adding in a potential top-20 arm in Oslwat, as much as it hurts to move Votto, I think you have to do deal.
By Paul on May 18, 2011
Ray, how is your knowledge on minor league baseball?
Looking for an opinion on Anthony Rizzo. He is crushing the Pacific league but he does play his games in the dry Arizona heat, plus the Pacific league is know for their hitting friendly ballparks.
Another concern is his LD% sits at 15% and his BABIP is over 400. Doesn’t match up. One plus is he has a good GB%.
Just looking for a second opinion on him
Thanks,
Paul
By Dave on May 18, 2011
@ Rickey – Just for fun I threw the following trade into Bloomberg Sports Front Office.
I trade Scott Engel & Adam Ronis to obtain Kyle Elfrink, Kay Adams, & Ray Flowers
Bloomberg says I will gain in fantasy performance, strategy, player information, and humor.
On the other hand Bloomberg says I will lose out on pathetic southern accents, references to Mahwah NJ, KISS references, and Scott Engel telling people how to answer a fictitious doorbell.
Bloomberg says it is not a balances trade, and that I should expect the other side to reject it.
By the way – I thought I was done listening to ridiculous KISS fanatics when I no longer had to share a bedroom with my kid brother….
By Chad on May 18, 2011
Ray- What’s your take on this trade proposal. I would get Fielder in return I give up Dunn & Castro. I have Tulo as my SS and also have Gaby @ 1B.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Dave – I always knew that I loved that Bloomberg tool. j/k
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Chad – Fielder for Dunn/Castro.
On the surface, you are giving up too much IMO.
Everyone loves Castro, a boatload, and moving Dunn as well, 7-straight 38 HR seasons, should net you more in return.
If Dunn has so little value in your league, I’d just hold on UNLESS — from the sound of it you must be in a really shallow league that doesn’t use corner or middle infielders, right? If that is the case having Castro does you no good if you have Tulo. If that’s the case you can make the deal.