Bonds, Ruth and Bautista?
May 18th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
The sun will rise in the morning, Raquel Welch will always be beautiful, and Jose Bautista will be the best hitter in baseball. Wait, what?
I’ve been a broken record for 12 months now. I keep saying “Jose Bautista can’t possibly keep this up,” yet week after week he does. It’s gotten to such a ridiculous point that people are now claiming that Bautista is not only a top-10 fantasy performer but that he is the best hitter in the game right now. Should we replace Lou Gehrig in the photo to the left and put Jose Bautista next to Babe Ruth?
2004-2009 SEASONS
During this period, Bautista’s season bests were 16 homers, 63 RBI, 75 runs scored and a .254 average. For the six years his slash line was .238/.329/.400. During that time the league average as better at .270/.340/.434.
2010 SEASON
.260-54-124-109 with a .995 OPS
Bautista led baseball in homers, was third in RBI and sixth in runs scored. He also became the fourth hitter in baseball history to have a season of 50 homers, 120 RBI, 100 runs, 100 walks and 35 doubles (the others are Babe Ruth, Hack Wilson and Luis Gonzalez).
2011 SEASON
.370-16-27-35-4 with a 1.365 OPS
His effort thus far is simply stunning. Bautista has been so stupendous, and honestly that word doesn’t do his performance justice, that he is on pace to hit hit .370 with 61 homers, 104 RBI, 135 runs scored and 15 steals.
HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE
Bautista’s work in 2011 is so absurd that it’s akin to being hit square in the face with a cast iron skillet.
(1) Bautista is hitting .370 and is on pace for more than 60 homers. Since 1940, only one player has hit .350 with 50 homers in a season. The year was 1957 and that hitter was Mickey Mantle (.365 with 52 homers).
(2) Bautista has an OBP of .516. In the history of baseball there have only been 10 seasons that can match that (minimum of 502 plate appearances). Think about that. Of all the players who have every played, there have only been 10 seasons better than the level that Bautista is currently getting on base.
(3) Bautista has an .849 SLG. In the history of the game only Barry Bonds 2001 season of .863 is better.
(4) Bautista has a 1.365 OPS. In the history of baseball there have only been four seasons that ended with marks higher than that – three by Barry Bonds and one by Babe Ruth.
As much as you all love Bautista, there simply can’t be a single person out there with half a brain that can legitimately claim that Bautista’s name should be mentioned in the same breath as Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth. We can agree on that, right? Come on, be honest. Do you really, if you search deep into the recesses of your being, think that Bautista deserves to have his name mentioned amongst the best hitters that the game of baseball has every produced before?
PERSONAL REVIEW
I’ve written and talked about how preposterous the performance of Bautista is going back to the start of last season. Here are the bullet points.
Bautista has never, not one single time, hit even .265 in a season. NEVER.
Bautista has never, not one single time, posted an OBP of .380 in a season.
As much as we want to say that he’s changed his swing and just figured everything out, we still have six years of below average work and one and a quarter seasons of excellence to review. Don’t forget that Bautista owns a rather average set of career numbers.
In his career his slash line is .250/.351/.472
The average player during his career has posted a line of .267/.337/.426.
PREDICTION
Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot.
There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330. Players just don’t add .100 points to their career batting average, it just doesn’t happen.
Is he going to finish with an OBP, SLG and OPS in the top-10 all-time for a single season? Please.
The question is – how much will he fall? Secondarily, will he be a top-5 performer, a top-10 performer, a top-25 performer? That’s where things get a bit trickier.
Put your thinking cap on and be honest. If I told you that Player A, through a quarter of a season, was producing career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG, home run rate, steal rate, walk rate, K-rate and BABIP, wouldn’t your inclination be to be wary of that level of production continuing?
What if I told you he was hitting .110 points better than ever before?
Or how about if he was on pace to bump his OBP by .138 points?
What about if his SLG was .233 points clear of any previous season?
What about if he was running so frequently that he was on pace to basically double his career best effort?
You’d tell me there was no chance that Player A would be able to keep that up. Given that, why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Jose Bautista, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle
By Barry Chupp (@gsxraudio) on May 18, 2011
Ray,
I’ve hearing you rant & rave as to how CRAZY Bautista’s performance is this year. According to interviews & reports, it seems he has developed a much keener eye for the ball. I wished I had more statistical data to further validate but I know that you do. Take a look at his K/BB ratio for 2010 vs 2011…..DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT!!! If you have the data available, I’d like to see a month/month comparison.
Enjoy y’alls show & your site. Alot of good info here.
Barry
By Tom on May 18, 2011
Ray knows where I stand from another post I made about Bautista (I’ve been dead right so far). But let’s get it out of the way. Will he maintain this pace? NO! But we can’t just say, “this is better than ever…it can’t continue!”, without looking at WHY. Bautista is a pull-hitter (naturally most are). Ever since he starting pulling more (a lot more), it naturally improved his performance a good deal. Bautista’s prior success came from him being able to lift the ball and hit bat speed. A few changes in his swing allowed him to get around faster and lift the ball more often and with more force. This has all lead to more hrs and solid hits. So he should naturally produce the best performance of his career when such changes occur. If he continues hitting flyballs > 50% and hits HRs at rates >20% of FB, then he will stay a 40+ HR hitter. The average won’t maintain, however. Once BABIP regresses, he’ll be a .270 or so hitter. But who wouldn’t want a 110-45-100-10-.270-.400 hitter. That is his conservative/realistic projection over a full season. Performance like that, at 3B no less, is worth a top 10 billing. Most would even argue top 5 due to position scarcity and the way 3B has shaped up this year. If there is upside to that, then it’s just gravy. You can’t go into it thinking, “it doesn’t seem to me like he should be doing that…so I don’t expect it to continue”. If Longoria, we’ll say 100-30-110-10-.290-.370 can be a top 5 or so player….then I just don’t see why Bautista wouldn’t be either. It’s just that simple.
By Jim on May 18, 2011
Ray, thank you for the recent photo of Sofia Vergara and your analysis of Jose Bautista’s unreal season, in that order.
I actually read a chat today with a very well-respected fantasy baseball analyst who said that, honestly, there is no one in baseball currently who would not be untouchable in a trade for Bautista — he is that dominant. I about fell out of my chair. I guess part of his appeal is that … in many leagues … he is eligible for third base, which of course is a mess due to thinness and injuries. But still. Bautista may have a fine year, but we’re in a game of chance. As such, give me the guys who have improved their chances with steady improvement of their skills over time.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Barry – Bautista’s BB/K mark is 1.84. If you add to together his last three years = 1.96. Barry Bonds, the greatest walk artist in baseball history, had a 1.66 career BB/K mark. Yet another reason why Bautista can’t keep this up.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Jim – Very well said my friend. Not much to add to your insights… except that Sophia is so hot.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Tom – Reasonable points all. The article wasn’t written for people such as yourself who take a realistic approach to Bautista. It’s more for those people who think he is Albert Pujols. Could he be a 40 HR hitter? I have no problem with that at all. Clearly he has shown that he is now that type of power threat. The average is the killer though right now. People seem to be buying it – and as you said, he isn’t that hitter.
I never said he couldn’t be a top-5 or top-10 guy this season. I don’t think he will be, but with this start, it is certainly possible that he will be able to attain that level this season.
By Josh on May 18, 2011
Ray I like you allot but you way to demonstrative in your denouncing of Jose Bautista. Sometimes players defy odds and fighting it everyday just makes you come off looking bad. I love the Fantasy drive and what you do with Baseballguys.com but lay off the Hyperbole a little bit. The Stick gets old. ie if Brandon Beachy K’s 200 Ill eat my shoe. You have a built in audience, no need to go shock jock just present info in your awesome way. and Bautista hits .315
By Jeff on May 18, 2011
Raybone, What Tim said is pretty much how I feel as well. I think you know that I’m on the Bautista bandwagon and feel that there’s still room for you Ray. I would like to add something for you to ponder too. Jake Fox said on Errickson/List show today that I think made at least some sense and is worth noting. Its playing time! Nobody (coaches/execs/etc) believed in Bautista before last year so he never really had a chance to play EVERYDAY. When you get consistent at bats you gain confidence while also “seeing the ball better”. Fox equated some of his Spring succes to this which made sense. I’m not one who believes Bautista can keep up the pace but to vibrantly refer to his prior numbers when he wasn’t getting consistent AB’s may have skewed his numbers a bit. I’m just thinking that a regression to what is his prior known mean may not happen. This is a changed guy whose making a new mean for himself. A regression will happen bit I think it’s going to be much smaller than you think with him being so patient at the plate. Also, I’m keeping a close eye on you in Livinthefantasyleague as you’re creeping up on me.
By FP on May 18, 2011
Ray,
You’re covering all the bases (no pun intended). Baseball chat, a pic of Sofia Vergara and a link to Raquel images from when she was “in her day”. Way to “spice up” an already great product!
Who’s next….Sophia Loren or maybe Marge Schott? Yuck…just the mention of Marge Shcott made me throw up in my mouth a litle.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
FP – I’d actually throw up if I saw a pic of Marge Schott. Now Mrs. Loren, that’s a different story.
By Ricky S on May 18, 2011
While you have good points about Bautista, one thing to take into consideration is that John Farrell LOVES to run! Before getting DL’d, Aaron Hill had 6 steals. Doesn’t seem like much, but look at Aaron Hills career. He matched his career high in a month, he had never had OVER 6 BEFORE. Rajai Davis leads the league in attempted steals per opportunity (51.9 %). John has also openly said he wants his team running. So while you may be right that Bautista may not put up anywhere near the numbers he’s on pace for, there’s no reason to think that he won’t set easily his career high in stolen bases (along with every other blue jay). Just sayin….
Also, would you drop Salas who I just acquired for Melancon or Padilla? What are your thoughts on who is the safest (I use the term loosely) of the three?
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Ricky S – Buatista lover. j/k Also a factor – his massive OBP increase. He’s on base more than half the time giving him plenty of chances to run.
I’d add Salas and drop Padilla. Vicente hasn’t been physically right all year long, so I’d dump him at this time.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Josh – I hear ya my man. I just get tired of people always asking such inane questions. I don’t try to be bombastic, it just comes out when I let it fly some times. Will try to keep the hyperbole in check.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Jeff – Playing every day is certainly a benefit – there is no disputing that fact at all. Getting into a groove clearly makes a huge difference. It doesn’t turn you from a scrub to an all-time great mind you — but it is certainly a big time plus.
By Eric on May 18, 2011
Ray my question for you is this can you really cite Jose Bautista career stats. I know this may sound weird but cant you throw out any stats before last year? Jose Bautista since last year is if not the beast hitter in the game at least top 5.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Eric – I cannot throw out 10 years of professional baseball for 14 months. No one should.
Bautista didn’t go from scrub to decent, decent to good, good to all-star.
He went from decent to Superstar overnight.
Is he the one guy who does that every 50 years? Maybe. But I’m not sold.
By Tom on May 18, 2011
Yes, good points Ray. I’d like to add that some things are on batter and some on the pitcher. Pitchers are legitimately afraid to pitch to him via his 35.8% zone%, which is by FAR the most extreme in the league. This lends to the fact that the walk rate will maintain. Also, given that, JB might be able to sit on pitches more as he’ll have many more favorable counts to hit in. This is a favorable situation he hasn’t been faced with before and further increases his chance for a positive contribution. And for comparative purposes, Bonds’ career zone was 44.1% (numbers only available from 2002-2007), with his best year being 41.9%. So if we call this the “fear factor” for pitchers…his is higher than Bonds and is a product of the environment; not luck on his part.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Tom – Good point. Still, the “fear” factor you speak of, if pitchers feel that way, is just stupidity on their part. I’m not saying that it’s not the case, but still, Bautista does not equal Bonds – even if pitchers seem to think so. Plus, Bonds did his think for a decade… Bautista only 14 months in… long way to go.
By Sanibel on May 18, 2011
Ray, 2010: .260-54-124-109 with a .995 OPS isn’t all that bad, no? (Well, the BA could be a bit higher but hey…)
What are your predictions for JB this year?
By Gary on May 18, 2011
Ray, Let’s just say he is developing his own unique track record and stop trying to compare him to someone else. Cito Gaston saw something in him at the end of 09. Moved him from the bottom of the lineup to the top, even occasionally leading him off. OBP was always decent but he has continually been improving his selection during the last 14 months. You can see the confidence in himself growing as well. His focus is insane. and that’s the thing that reminds me the most of him compared to Bonds, McGuire and Sosa 10 years ago.
That kind of focus that doesn’t miss anything in his wheelhouse is what seems… let’s say “Enhanced” by some sort of Focus factor.
Will he keep it up? If his Focus stays intact, yes it will. I’ve always said that Strength wasn’t improved by PEDs, but eyesight and coordination was the biggest enhancement.
Time will tell the truth.
By brad on May 18, 2011
what do you think of this trade
bernadina and coghlan for hunter and lowrie
l
By Jeff on May 18, 2011
Raybone, Since you love to compare him to Bonds. Take a look at Bonds 1st year and it’s quite similar to JB in 08′. No? I know Bonds did his thing for 20 more years but for you to say JB can’t do similar things given 550-600 ab’s every year is an oversight IMO. You’re a numbers guy and I realize that but I think your previous bias against him will catch up to you. Of course that’s just my opinion…and I’m just your regular idiot who listens to wayyy too many experts on fantasy. lol. I do however refer to your genious when it comes to pitching. I think you have a nice niche in that regard.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
Brad – Bernadina I like. If he plays ROTW he could go .280 with 10/15, solid production. Coghlan is also a solid bat, but he isn’t anything great. In a mixed league both are merely 4/5 OF options.
Hunter is aging and all, but he still should post solid numbers the rest of the way. Lowrie, I dont love the guy, but he has a chance to match the numbers of Coghlan while playing SS.
Give me the Hunter/Lowrie side.
By Ray Flowers on May 18, 2011
It amazes me how everyone is coming to the defense of Bautista. Maybe those that agree with me just aren’t taking the time to write about it – but I find it completely amazing that every seems so convinced with Bautista. It was just six weeks ago that ADP info barely had him inside the top-50, and now everyone seems so sure he is a top-10 guy.
For those of you out there who are TRUE BELIEVERS, give me his final AVG-HR-RBI numbers. Will be interested to see your thoughts.
By Josh on May 18, 2011
No problem Ray. I use to not like you but you grew on me. You bring good info and insight and the fantasy drive has brought me to this site. I do appreciate the hard work you put in and keep up the good work.
By Jeff on May 19, 2011
.295 – 119 – 52 – 132 – 14. I had him in my top 25 coming into the year and was able to get him in a few of my redraft leagues. Snagged him in LivingTheFantasy league in the 3rd round at 27 overall. I’m curious as to what you think his final numbers will be?
By Rob on May 19, 2011
Hi Ray,
UT spot: have Rolen. Could drop for Smoak or
Hosmer (both free agents).
Who would you rather have, Rolen, Smoak or Hosmer?
By Tom on May 19, 2011
Before the season started, I had him at 500 AB (not playing full season) 95-42-105-10-265-385. Now I have it at 520 AB 110-45-95-10-.280-.410 pace going forward (not adjusting it for current performance). With pitching around him so much with men on, he won’t get as many rbi as people think. I also expect his HR/FB rate to regress from 31.4% to around 20-21. But his FB% should remain. So basically…whatever pace he’s on for HR…cut out 1/3 of it. He’ll still get his walks (bb% will remain >18%), so he’ll still get his runs. And at that pace, will be the top 3B.
I’ve been right so far because I’ve looked at it for what it is. If he hits 50% FB…20% HR/FB…healthy % of LD…contact % above 80….he will have a very high probability to reach those numbers.
For being a numbers guy Ray, you really haven’t looked at the numbers other than surface stats (which is pulling an ESPN).
By Tom on May 19, 2011
And how about or a similar situation…what are your thoughts on Curtis Granderson?
Currently, he’s pulling the ball more (in a stadium that favors it heavily). He’s hitting a career high FB%. And as a result of both, he’s also hitting a career high HR/FB%. He’s on pace for like 55 hr. He’s never been more of a 22-26 HR guy.
Me personally, I think the HR/FB % regresses some, maybe to 18%, but the FB% should stick. That would put him at 40 or so pace..or finish around 44. That would be a career high by 14! I haven’t heard any reasons why he’s changed the approach. And while his zone% is at a career low (pitching around him), his walk rate has stayed the same…so I have my reservations of his ability to keep it up (can he adjust as they adjust). But there’s an outside chance he can….something to keep an eye on.
By Tom on May 19, 2011
Also, for what it’s worth…the reason most people run into problems or fail in their attempt to do the same thing Bautista did/is doing:
1) When pitchers make adjustments, batters don’t remain patient…their walk rates remain/fall..outside swing % goes up…contact goes down
2) The type of contact they make goes down….not as many LDs…big increase in IF Flys…or flat out strike out a bunch more (see Raburn/Encarnacion this year).
So many guys are failing in these attempts…the aforementioned…Aviles…Bruce…Gomes…etc
By Keith on May 19, 2011
Ray, all your points are valid. Bautista is simply doing something that hasn’t been seen before.
Now, to my mind, the question becomes, when the regression comes, what form does IT take? As you point out, and it does demand notice, he’s never hit even .265 before. But at this point, given his current (insane) level, would it not take an equally unprecedented collapse for him to even regress to his career marks?
You couldn’t predict any player would ever improve as much as Bautista has. So while it is only logical to predict a regression, what form that regression takes has to be seen as completely unpredictable as well.
I guess what I’m getting at is, as much as he HAS to regress, it’s really hard to see him experiencing a collapse that would take him back down to “told you so” level.
By Brian on May 19, 2011
Ray – I was offered Dunn and Bay for Helton and Chris Young (OF). Should i accept or roll with Helton at 1B all year?
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
Jeff – I dont predict actual numbers, at least not willingly. Reason being …
A .275 hitter could bat .260 or .290.
A 35 homer bat could hit 29 or 39 homers.
A 85 RBI guy could end up with 73 or 93.
There’s just too much white noise to be able to predict.
At this point, 40 homers look like a lock. He should push 100 RBI and runs as well (duh).
I still have a hard time thinking he’ll hit even .300.
We’ll see.
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
Rob – I know Rolen was great in the first half last year, but he was a poor contributor each of the previous two years, and he was awful in the second half last year. In fact, Since August 1st last year –
66 games: .260 AVG, 4 HR, 36 RBI and .730 OPS
Give me Hosmer and Smoak over Rolen.
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
Tom – I’m nothing if not thorough, and honestly, I take offense at being called out like that.
People don’t read anymore. It’s pretty hard trying to right a cogent piece off information in 700 words. That’s always the first issue.
Second, the more data driven analysis you do, the more you turn people off. I could start breaking down ISO, RC27, SEC, VORP, etc, and people would tune out. I could break down win probabilty, pitch types etc., and people would tune out.
Third, how do you analyze a guy who has five years of crap, and eight months of stupendous work??? You can sit there and tell me ‘well of course he’s going to have a FB rate of 50% and a HR/FB ratio of 20%’… the problem with that is that in SEVEN SEASONS he reached either of those numbers only one time. There is no reasonable way anyone could assume that he would be able to repeat those number this season merely because he reached both of them last year.
You can disagree with me all you want, but please don’t ever accuse me of being a “surface” analyst – that couldn’t be more inaccurate.
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
Keith – Bautista is going to set a new career best in average, that is obvious. As you point out though, its the degree of regression that we need to focus on.
The answer to that question is – ?
Even with his hot start, I think even the most ardent would have to say that even .325 is a huge reach.
Personally, I think his line drive rate regresses, his BABIP regresses, and his K-rate goes up. If that occurs, I’m still thinking he’s going to have a hard time hitting much better than .300. We’ll just have to wait and see because, as you said, there’s really no way to know when he is doing such unprecidented things.
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
Brian – Dunn should rebound, and so should Bay. However, I have more confidence in Dunn than I do in Bay.
Helton will hit as long as he is healthy. Given his recent history though, we can’t posit that he will remain healthy and play in 145 games. Young is a fantasy stud in the OF because of his speed, though 3 SBs in 7 chances is not very good.
I’d take Dunn and Bay, but this is one of those deals that could go either way.
By FP on May 19, 2011
Hello Ray! 10 team 5×5 ML and currently have M. Young as my 3B. P. Alvarez is on WW and with M. Young having 2B eligibility as well as the shortage of 3B production in AL/NL will I be best served by dropping D. Espinosa at 2B, moving M. Young to 2B and picking up Pedro? I see you like him in your “NL Buy/Sell” so I assume you will say “Go for it!”
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
FP – I’d make that move. Both youngsters have underperformed this year, but Pedro could go off at any time if he locks that swing in. Make it happen.
By mikey on May 19, 2011
Ray, just wondering what you think of this trade.
Justin Masterson,Buster Posey,Carl Crawford in return for Gio Gonzalez, Russel Martin,Justin Upton
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
Mikey – My thoughts—
Crawford for JUP – Can’t go wrong with either. One has power, the other speed. Both should be stars ROTW.
Posey for Martin – Even though the #s may not show it right now, hard to think Posey won’t be better ROTW.
Masteron for Gonzalez – I’m a big fan of masterson, and not a huge fan of Gonzo, but I still can’t say that this is anything other than a wash at best.
The team getting Posey has the edge, but it’s fair to both sides.
By FP on May 19, 2011
Ray,
I currently have F. Salas as one of my closers. Looking at the ATL situation is Venters a better play than Salas becasue he only has to compete with a currently “faltering” Kimbrel for S’s and will get more App’s?
Venters numbers are great but my fear is Freddi won’t make a switch, even if warranted, and at the frequency he has both Kimbrel and Venters pitching they will both be burned out by August. Your thoughts? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
FP – See http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/19/around-the-horn-may-19-2011/
Venters could easily get some 9th inning work with Kimbrel struggling. I dont worry about Venters burning out – don’t forget that he was basically a starter until last year.
For saves you hold on to Salas, but if you are targeting skills, you want Venters.
By FP on May 19, 2011
Just saw the “post” Ray. Thanks!
By brad on May 19, 2011
would you trade bernadina for lowrie
i play sizemore at 2ndbase?
By Ray Flowers on May 19, 2011
Brad – Without details I would say this. Bernadina has a bit more upside with his wheels, and seems locked into regular PT in CF. I’d go with Roger.
By callmezeke on May 19, 2011
i have been offered a trade where i would get bautista for hosmer and starlin castro. in addition to the two guys i’d be trading, i have tulo at short and laporta and smoak at first. it’s a 14 team keeper league. i have ended up in last place every year since 2007, but i have been rebuilding since then. this trade would put me in first. i’m inclined to do it because i’ve been saying wait until next for a long time.
By Mike on May 20, 2011
Hi Ray
Tweeted this to you, but a bit more detail here:
Roto 12 team league 5×5.
I’ve been offered Jose Bautista (& Taylor Buchholz) for my Ichiro Suzuki and Josh Beckett.
My current 3B is Aaron Miles because of David Wright’s injury. My OF is Ichiro, McCutchen, Delmon Young, Garrett Jones, Melky Cabrera & Grady Sizemore (DL’d obviously).
My SP are: Lester, Marcum, Baker, Liriano, Cueto, Ogando, Wilson, Stauffer as well as Beckett.
I currently lead the league in SB, but only mid-way in R, HR, RBI and a 4 for AVG.
My thinking is that I can take the hit at SP as my staff is quite deep and I can play matchups a little bit with back end starters, and play Bautista at 3B until Wright is fit and then move into OF. I might lose a point or two at SB, but should gain at least that at HR / RBI over the rest of the season.
What do you reckon?
By Ray Flowers on May 20, 2011
CallM- In a keeper lg, this is a win right now move. Castro and Hosmer figure to be all-star caliber talents for the next decade. You know I’m still not sold on Bautista as well. Obviously you have things covered at SS, and you do have talent at first. You can do this deal, just realize what you are giving up long term.
By Ray Flowers on May 20, 2011
Mike – Your tweet did not include Buchholz info in it. Is it Taylor or Clay? Makes a big difference.
“I’ve been offered Jose Bautista (& Taylor Buchholz) for my Ichiro Suzuki and Josh Beckett.”
By Mike on May 20, 2011
Hi Ray
Unfortunately it is Taylor not Clay. I’m still tempted as I think I have reasonable pitching depth. Would it change your opinion if I said I have Smoak / Hosmer and David Ortiz battling over two slots? Maybe trade one of them for another SP?
Mike
By Ray Flowers on May 20, 2011
Mike – “I’ve been offered Jose Bautista (& Taylor Buchholz) for my Ichiro Suzuki and Josh Beckett.”
Beckett had a brief hiccup with his back last night, and it should remind everyone that he isn’t a lock to make 32 starts this year (though I do really like the skills). Ichiro always does his thing, it’s as simply as that really.
Taylor, you know his value.
Bautista is an interesting add of course. I’m not a huge fan as you know, but if you can stand the loss of Beckett, and feel confident in your team’s batting average without Ichiro, I guess you have to make this deal.