Touching the Bases
May 20th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Nick Blackburn has made nine starts this year. Though he has a 3.40 ERA, his WHIP is a pedestrian 1.40. However, what’s more interesting is that he has allowed exactly five earned runs in three starts while in his other six outings he has yet to allow more than two earned runs. In fact, in five of his nine starts on the year he has allowed zero or one earned run.
I talk about skills versus role all the time. I wish the Dodgers were listening. With Vicente Padilla on the shelf, it looks like Matt Guerrier is going to get first crack at the 9th inning for the club. MG is a perfectly solid bullpen arm, there is no disputing his track record there, but really Dodgers? Has anyone ever looked at MG and said ‘now there’s a closer’? Not once. Though his K-rate is up to 7.33 – he owns a career mark of just 5.98 – he’s also walking batters at the second worst rate of his career at 3.86. He just doesn’t have the kind of stuff you look for to close out games. Kenley Jansen has that stuff – and then some. In 44.1 innings in the bigs Jansen has a K/9 rate of 14.21, a simply amazing mark. Yes he has trouble throwing strikes, he’s walked 5.71 batters per nine on the year, but his 2.64 K/BB ratio is still light years ahead of the 1.90 mark from MG this season. I understand the Dodgers reluctance to give Jansen 9th inning work, but he’s still the arm I want to add.
Ramon Hernandez lost his 11 game hitting streak Thursday night. On the year he is hitting .337 though, so don’t feel too sorry for him. His career mark by the way is .266.
I posed this question on Twitter, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of the dark haired beauty. If you had your choice, and by “you” I mean me when I make it big and head to Hollywood, would you rather date Mila Kunis or Natalie Portman?
Howie Kendrick might miss a couple of games with a tender hamstring, but he has been a force all season long for the Angels. Kendrick, who leads the AL with 19 multi-hit games on the year, is hitting .322 with seven homers, 18 RBI and four steals. He is the only second baseman in baseball to have reached all four of those marks. Do you all remember back in March when I had Kendrick ranked as my 68th best player in my Top-300? I remember quite a few people saying I was an idiot. Well, so far so good. Of course, there is always the chance that he ends up no the DL as his history would suggest, but I’m keeping the faith with the second baseman/first baseman/outfielder (this season he has appeared in 30 games at second, 12 at first and nine in the outfield).
Albert Pujols has gone 91 at-bats with a home run. Erick Aybar hit one 15 at-bats ago. In 10 seasons Pujols has never failed to hit at least 32 homers. Will this be the first year that he fails to hit 30 (he has seven in 45 games)?
Everyone loves to hate on B.J. Upton. Don’t get me wrong I get it, the guy is a total flake, fails to hustle at times, and clearly has a .10 cent head, but man does the guy have skills. After a so-so start in April, he has exploded in May for a .295 average, four homers, 16 RBI and a .918 OPS. Unfortunately he has stolen only one base on the month, but he is still well on pace to go 25/25 this year, and there just aren’t that many guys in the game who can do that.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Albert Pujols, B.J. Upton, Howie Kendrick, Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Mila Kunis, Natalie Portman, Ramon Hernandez
By Paul on May 20, 2011
Ray,
NL-only free agent question for you. I need to pick up one of these guys to fill in for the next three weeks or so. I’m in last place in hitting in my 8-team league because of a little more than anticipated DL issue (Soto, Zimmerman, Furcal, Freese). Available are Jon Jay, Justin Turner and Wil Bloomquist. Can you rank them for me?
As far as Kunis vs. Portman – I’d say Portman then Kunis. Good luck with that (but when you make it big and shave off the muscrat you might score both).
Thanks for your expert insight.
Paul
By Ray Flowers on May 20, 2011
Paul – Paul, I bet I could get both with the Muskrat love intact! Ok, no chance, but I wouldn’t bet against me in a straight up matchup without the beard.
I’d add Turner. He’s a hot bat right now, and he’ll end up being 2B and 3B eligible. I don’t think he’s a difference maker type in an 8 man league, but he’d be my choice unless Berkman/Rasmus/Holliday ends up on the DL, then I’d grab Jay.
By Danny Tanner on May 20, 2011
Hey Ray,
I was offered the following:
My: Holliday and Ryan Zimmerman
for
His: Votto and Aramis Ramirez.
I’m torn due to the drop off between Zimm and A-Ram. I think A-Ram will pick things up, but probably not perform as well as Zimm when he returns from the DL. My only thing with Zimm is that he always seems to be getting hurt.
Your thoughts?
By Chad on May 20, 2011
Ray- I’m starting to get nervous about Soria. Is he somebody I should trade and if so, what should I look for in return in a SP or OF?
By Ray Flowers on May 20, 2011
Danny – Holliday is a bit beat up, and he won’t hit .370. Zimmerman on the shelf – still deal two top-20 players is a huge risk.
Votto is a star, period. Aramis hasn’t shown the power, but history says it will come back. Pretty much everything else is in line with his carer norms.
In the end, I’d say keep Holliday and Zimm, but with performance/health concerns, that other duo is intriguing.
By Ray Flowers on May 20, 2011
Chad – I understand the concern, but everyone continues to say he is OK. I’m concerned, his K-rate is way down and his BB rate way up. Also, mph is about one as well.
I’d say, with the way closers are losing jobs, that I’d continue to hold since you know he has the job locked down.
By New to fantasy BB on May 20, 2011
Hey Ray — I’m new to fantasy baseball (not to other fantasy sports though) & am in a 6×6 head to head 12 team keeper league with no salary cap. Everyone gets to protect 12 players from season to season with no restrictions, and can also stash three minor league players. I took over a mess of a team & have worked into something mediocre, which is progress I guess.
That being said, does it make sense to trade a proven stud in his prime like Verlander for prospects like Hosmer and Domonoic Brown? Clearly it makes me worse in the short term, but do deals like this generally pay off in long-term keeper leagues? Or am I better off trying to build in the draft by picking up promising young players that other people become impatient with (e.g., pedro alvarez).
Thanks for your help and all the best.
By Ray Flowers on May 20, 2011
New to – Depends on the depth of your roster, and when do you think your team can compete? Verlander is an elite talent. As good as Brown/Hosmer will be, it will be years, if ever, that they will be elite and their positions (top-10).
If your team stinks, you have the roster space for two guys, do the deal since it sounds like your team isn’t very close to competing.
Honestly, it’s a tough question to answer.
Remember – a bad pitch could knock a pitcher out for 12-18 months, so keep that in the back of your mind.
By cameron on May 20, 2011
hey ray,
was just offered justin smoak for justin morneau. i know morneau has looked horrible and you keep saying you have no faith in him, but he has shown a little promise as of late. obviously this guy is playing for morneau’s upside, and smoak has really cooled off lately.. but which one would you take for ROTW? or should i counter and try and make it a little more interesting for me? i drafted morneau really early, like round 8 or 9 so i’m hesitant to give up on him quickly or for too little. thanks.
oh also fyi: 7 keepers, 10 tm mixed.
By New to fantasy BB on May 21, 2011
Hi Ray — thanks for the input there. My prospective trading partner has said the only deal he’s willing to do is Prince Fielder & Verlander for Hosmer, Brown, Arenciba & Drabek. I’m inclined to turn this down. Dealing one elite player is one thing, but but both seems like way too much uncertainty to me & would set be back further than I’d like.
My current roster is as follows:
Avila (C), Fielder, Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Alvarez, Ian Desmond, Mitch Moreland, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Brett Gardner, Michael Brantley, Nick Swisher,
Verlander, Lester, Chacin, Liriano, Cueto, CJ Wilson, C Lewis, Storen, Bard, Frank Francisco, Cordero, Salas, and Lidge on the IR
I’m actually pleased with how the roster has developed given the disaster zone I started with, but I fully realize I’m not there yet. Anyway, thanks again for the input and all the best.
By Ray Flowers on May 21, 2011
Cameron- Don’t get tied to where you drafted a guy, it really doesn’t matter now (I wouldn’t have taken morneau until like the 15th round). Regardless, in a 10 team league, neither guy is a must start right now, not at the loaded first base spot. Smoak is finally starting to fulfull expectations, but his upside is no better than the hitter we already know that Morneau is. I’d hold on to JM who is finally starting to show something.
By Ray Flowers on May 21, 2011
New to – I agree with you. Fielder and Verlander are both well under 30, so there is no pressing need to move either in an keeper league. That’s a ton of talent to get back, but right now, it’s just talent. Plus, if you do the deal, you’d also have to drop two more players from your roster to even up the deal.
By Ricky S on May 21, 2011
Ray,
Who do you start next week with the Josh Johnson injury: Kyle McClellan @ SD or Jeremy Hellickson with 2 starts (@Det, Cle)? It’s a 5×5. I’m thinking McClellan because I don’t think that one start can kill me. What do you think?
By Chrissy on May 22, 2011
Hey Ray it’s “Chrissy” Love your website and the radio show! I’m in a 10-team head to head mixed league, as you well know 3b is a hard position to fill. What’s your thoughts on D.Valencia, R.Roberts, C.Jones. W.Betemit,Tejada or Wigginton as a pick up? Thank you!
By Marty on May 22, 2011
Ray,
Love the show! Makes Chicgo gridlock traffic tolerable. I have Norris & Floyd in my last 2 rotation spots. Any room for improvement on the waiver wire? 5×5 12 team roto.
Pineiro, Zambrano, Baker, Dempster, Volquez, Arrieta are avialble.
Thanks-
By Ray Flowers on May 22, 2011
Ricky S – I do not like making calls on individual starts. Hard not to pitch KM in San Diego. The park is great for pitchers, and the Padres aren’t exactly a power hitting lineup.
By Ray Flowers on May 22, 2011
Chrissy – How are you doing my lady? Glad you enjoy the talking and the writing.
I know, how bad has 3B been this year? Just awful.
Valenciia/Tejada = terrible averages.
Betemit = solid, but Moustakas looms.
Chipper = solid but always hurt.
Roberts = no track record to fall back on.
Wigginton = just off DL.
I’d say all are poor options in 10 tm league. If I had to go w/ a fill in, I’d add Wigginton and hope he gets his power bat going since the team has said 3B job is his to lose.
By Ray Flowers on May 22, 2011
Marty – Sorry about the traffic, that’s just the worst isn’t it?
Norris and Floyd have both been solid this year.
I like Baker, but he never seems to put it all together.
Arrieta has a nice arm, but AL East competition scares me a bit.
Dempster = big fan. Have been for a long time.
I think you have to keep the consistent Floyd. I’d like to see you add Dempster as well, but at this point, I don’t know if he is any better than Norris. Anyone else you could drop?
By SF on May 22, 2011
Ray,
Can i get your thoughts on a Gio Gonzalez for the rest of the year. I’m looking to trade for him, probably giving up smoak. Thank you
By Otay on May 22, 2011
Between Austin Jackson, Domonic Brown, Justin Turner, and Alex Gordon..Which 3 would you start?
Also, who would you start between Kyle Lohse and Alexi Ogando?
And last, my catcher is Avila, but Arencibia and Lucroy are both available. Would you recommend keeping Avila in there or picking up one of those two catchers?
Sorry for the 3 questions in 1. Thanks
By Ray Flowers on May 22, 2011
SF – Gio has great stuff, and it’s nice to see his K/9 go back up this year. Still, he walks too many guys. Also, his LOB% is too high right now. He’s the pitcher you saw last year in ERA, not the one you are seeing right now. Combine the stuff and that ground ball rate, and there is a lot to like. Again, just make sure you look at last year as a guys, and not what you have seen so far this year as your guide.
By Ray Flowers on May 22, 2011
Otay – (1) Sit Gordon. Though leading off, he has looked terrible in May. (2) Star Ogando. Sooner or later the ride will end, but he continues to dominate. Lohse’s start in COL is a concern. (3) Avila is a better option than the other two right now, but investigating other catching options makes sense.
By FP on May 22, 2011
Hey Ray! Sorry about the Sharks losing today. Hopefully Thornton will be back. You’ll have to keep the Muskrat love going at least one more game, so I’ll hold off buying stock in Gilette.
To FBL….drafted K. Johnson and dumped him a couple of weeks ago. Picked up D. Espinosa who had a great week for me with 2 Bombs and 9 Ribs. Looking at his numbers his BABIP is .234 whcih is below the norm but in line with his PT in the majors last year. His ISO is at .211 which is pretty “sweet” for a 2B. Bottom line is I know he is not going to win a batting title, but is Espinosa a 20HR, 80RBI guy who hits about .245 with 15 SB….which to me makes him worthy of a spot in a 10 team roto ML? Thanks.
By FP on May 22, 2011
p.s. Would Brett lawire be a better specualtive pick-up over D. Espinosa? Sounds like he may be up soon. Thanks!
By Mike on May 22, 2011
Hi Ray,5×5 roto
Wright replacement. Rate these 3rd base,
Callaspo, Valencia, Betemit, Chris johnson and Encarncion.
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on May 22, 2011
FP – Yeah, Sharks didn’t play well today. Refs didn’t help with all the 5-on-3′s. If Thornton is hurt, it’s pretty much done, if it isn’t already. Muskrat love lives on for another few days at least.
The numbers you tossed out there for Espinosa are all reasonable. The steals might be a little high, but the other numbers seem reachable. He does have his holes, but also his pluses.
By Joel on May 22, 2011
Ray: 1) for an infield bat to pick up on waivers tomorrow: can you rank these in h2h: Espinosa, Trumbo, Justin Turner. interested mainy in some juice for the next week or so…
also, 2) would you cut andres torres to pick up Delmon off waivers? THANKS!
By FP on May 23, 2011
Hey Ray,
10 team ML 5×5 roto. Was just offered Hosmer and B. Anderson for Choo.
In addition to Choo I currently have OF of Torres, Stanton, D. Young, T. Hunter and Sizemore. I was counting on Choo for BA, SB and some RBI but have not gotten much of a return to date. Currently 3rd in HR and tied for 3rd in RBI.
My SP (using WW after a bad draft) are Lester, Lincecum, Shields, D. Hudson, Kuroda and A. Sanchez. Still last in ERA and WHIP so Anderson could help there.
1. While I need help in SB, I would be dropping Furcal to accommodate extra slot.
2. Wild card is Hosmer inasmuch as he has no MLB track record and I have no idea how he will compare ROS to Choo in BA or SB….or even how he will hold up ROS. In other words, Hosmer does not give me the “warm and fuzzies”;
3. Was thinking of a counter of Choo for Hosmer and Hamels.
Your thoughts on getting rid of Choo now for teh current offer or teh proposed counter offer, or do I hold?
By Rob on May 23, 2011
Hi Ray,
General pitching question. Does the starter of game 2 in a double header have a noticeable advantage over the opposing lineup? Seems like those bats would have started to cool by the second game…but I wonder if there’s evidence to back that up?
Looking specifically at Collmenter in the second part of the Colorado double. He’s doing very well right now and I’m hoping he’ll fare especially well in tomorrow’s game 2.
What do you think about this?
By Alan on May 23, 2011
Ray,
I’m in a 10 team points league and my Catcher G. Soto is on the DL. I’ve tried plugging in other catchers like Barajas, R. Hernandez, but they don’t seem like a viable option. Would you suggest adding any of these catchers until Soto comes off the DL : Jaso, Buck, Ruiz, Iannetta, Saltalamacchia, Lucroy, Doumit, Pierzynski.
By Tim on May 23, 2011
Ray -
New to the site and find your insights most helpful in sorting through the noise. Drafted Latos high and he’s a concern. Has this just been extended spring training? Real concerns or does he finish ROTW with below 3.50 ERA and a K/9 rate somewhere aroung 9? Thanks
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
FP – Lawrie certainly has huge upside, but it’s always a risk to take a guy who (a) is in the minors and (b) one who hasn’t played in the big leagues. He’s certainly a better long term option than Espinosa, but there is no way to know if that will happen this year or not. If you can risk it taking a shot on Lawrie makes sense, but it’s a risk.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Mike – Lots of none excitement there. Callaspo won’t kill your avg (.303 and .286 the two months). Johnson hitting .296 with .876 OPS in May. EE has 30 homer power – though he never seems to get there.
I’d add Johnson. He isn’t the player he was in the second half last year, but he’s warm right now, and Wright should be back soon.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Joel – Trumbo, Turner, Espinosa.
Turner is the hottest right now if you want to play that game, but Trumbo has more “juice” if by that you mean pop.
I would not drop Torres if I could help it, but like I’ve been saying for weeks, everyone needs to add delmon young if he is out there.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Tim – Hope you enjoy the site.
I wrote about concerns with Latos in January – http://baseballguys.com/2011/01/14/the-verducci-effect/
That said, his record means nothing, he can’t control that. His K/9 rate is still strong, the issue has been too many walks, too many homers. The homers should get back to normal at some point leaving walks as a key indicator. His xFIP right now is 3.99 so he really hasn’t pitched as bad as it looks. Keep an eye on the radar gun too. His avg. fastball is down 2 mph right now.
Don’t expect the guy from last year, but he should still be solid.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Alan – Well, don’t know what kind of league your in, but when a catcher hits .333 with an OPS of .961 and is pace for 20 homers, that’s pretty amazing work (Ramon Hernandez). I know he doesn’t play everyday, but most catchers don’t any more.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
FP – Choo has struggled in avg, but he is still on pace for about 18 homers and 25 steals, that’s pretty darn good. And remember, he’s struggled. Your OF isn’s very strong. I’d be very reluctant to move Choo given that fact.
How are you last in ERA when you have the 7th and 8th best ERA guys in the league on your team (Lincecum, Shields)? Sanchez and Kuroda are also just over 3.00.
If you need help in steals, why drop perennial 25 SB guy in Frucal?
I’d rather have Hamels over Anderson.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Rob – I’ve never seen such a study about lineups. Fact is, many teams employ different lineups in doubleheaders. I have no idea why you would assume that the bats would cool in the second game. I don’t see the logic in that contention.
Collmenter has been strong to this point, but I’m not sold. K/9 rate is low, very lucky in HR/9, exceedingly lucky in BABIP. I mean, this guy wasn’t even any good last year at Triple-A. I’d be careful.
By FP on May 23, 2011
Sorry Ray for the confusion in my prior e-mail but my ERA/WHIP woes were the result of my drafting and starting Dempster, Lackey, Bedard, Zimmerman and Thornton the first 3 weeks of the season. The staff to date were the results of the WW and trades. Thanks for the advice.
By Alan on May 23, 2011
Thanks for the advice on the catcher situation. Hernandez doesn’t play everyday but I’ll stick with him.
I read what you wrote about Trumbo, Turner and Delmon Young.
I’m in a 10 team Points league, which of the 3 would you recommend adding to my roster and who should I drop?
Soto, R. Hernandez, Howard, Pedroia, Youkillis, H. Ramirez, McGehee, McCutchen, Bruce, Choo, A. Jones, Huff, Span, Barney, Alvarez, I. Davis
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Alan – if you read what I wrote about the three guys… “…I’ve been saying for weeks, everyone needs to add delmon young if he is out there.” In a 10 team lg. you are always going to rotate through players though, the league is just sooooo shallow. You an go with Turner cause he has been hot, then just dump him when someone gets cold. Rinse and repeat. Its really, really hard to give advice in such shallow leagues because there are, and always will be, good players on waivers.
In the end, you dont have to do anything here. You could drop Alvarez, especially given his health concerns.
By Chris on May 23, 2011
Ray…I got a trade offer, I get Alex Gordon and Ethier for Pedroia. This is a 12 team H2H 5X5 league.
I know Gordon has cooled off and Ethier just got banged up but nothing on the MRI. Pedroia has had a bad start but I think he is going to be good the rest of the year. I can move either Aviles or Lowrie (both eligible at 2b, 3B and SS in Yahoo)into Pedroia’s spot and Either would replace Sam Fuld or Alfonso Soriano in the outfield.
I would have to drop a player but I have a couple of underperforming pitchers that can go.
Bloomberg says no deal but I just don’t know. I know they are a sponsor but is this a deal worth doing?
Thanks much for this and the radio show…it rocks.
By Bob G on May 23, 2011
Ray,
First off, love the radio show on XM. 6×6 roto league with win % and TB as extra categories. I’ve been offered CC Sabathia and Furcal for Asdrubal Cabrera. I’m #1 in offense but 10th in pitching.
My staff is: Ubaldo, Carpenter, Greinke, Gio, Morrow, Ogando and Homer Bailey. I’d probably cut Homer.
What do you think?
By Joel on May 23, 2011
Ray: for the rest of the season, would u rather have Bautista or Pujols? If Pujols, is it close?
By Rob on May 23, 2011
Delmon Young was just sent to waivers in my league.
I agree with you that he’s a must add but I’d have to drop Hosmer at UTIL or one of my current OF – Pence, Ethier, LoMo, Hart, Tabata (start 5 guys). It’s all points based so Tabata hasn’t been providing much power but I don’t want to cut the guy and I don’t know that Young is THAT much of an improvement (if any) on the guys I already have.
My bench is all pitchers and I can’t (or feel like I can’t) drop any of them: Hamels, Gallardo, Shields, Gio Gonzales, Nolasco, Scherzer, Cahill, Wandy and Kennedy with Axford, Hanrahan and Storen closing.
Is this one of those situations where you have to just pass? What would you do here?
By Reese on May 23, 2011
Ray so i have read what you think of Delmon Young. Im about to pick him up to replace Cameron Maybin but i have morneau and mauer. Do i really want 2 twins in my lineup? Maybe 3 in a month or so? Doesnt sound to good for me but i need an outfielder really bad!!!!Thanks for your time.
Of consists of Werth, joyce and maybin with victorino and sizemore on the dl.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Chris – Ethier is awful right now after a superb April. Still, overall, AVG/OBP almost exactly on career level. Gordon is awful of late. He has to prove it to me before I believe it.
Pedroia has never been this bad. He’s a great by low guy as the lineup is getting going.
I’d say do it.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Bob G – Thanks for the words about liking the show.
Win% is an AWFUL stat. Might consider reworking that one moving forward.
If you are last in pitching categories, how could you not do this? I’d take CC for Cabrera straight up, easily, and by also getting Furcal tossed in there you are the winner of this one.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Joel – I don’t know how many times I can write or say it – NOTHING that is going on with Bautista makes sense. Nothing. He is so far out of the realm of classification that it’s impossible to say what’s going on. I will certainly take the best hitter in baseball for the past decade though for the ROTW. It might be the wrong call, but it’s still the choice I’d make.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Rob – You can’t drop Hosmer to add Young. Reason being, Hosmer has too much cache right now. I’m sure if you wanted to move Hosmer, you would be able to get a substantial return for him.
Young was one hit from .300 with 110 RBI last year.
LoMo ain’t gonna do that. Hart will never do that. Tabata will never do that.
The only guy that I would drop would be Tabata. However, I don’t know if you have any speed since none of your OFs, other than Jose, have any. If that’s the case, you’ll probably have to pass on Young.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Reese – It’s not like football where you have to be overly concerned about guys from the same team. You don’t want to make a habit out of it, but in certain instances it’s Ok. If you had those three last year you’d have a 112 RBI outfielder, the AL MVP at the mid point (Morneau) and a catcher who hit .327. Nothing wrong with that.
By Rob on May 24, 2011
Hi Ray,
I was leaning toward Tabata getting the ax. I’m in a H2H points league: 1 point for H, R, BB, RBI, SB, Total Bases and -1 for SO so speed really doesn’t bring home the bacon. Main objective is to get a guy that will get multiple base hits, HRs and RBIs.
Given this points system, would you drop Tabata and add Young? What do you make of Young’s leg contusion, nothing to worry about?
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Rob – I’m pretty sure I answered this question on Tabata somewhere. In a pts lg. Tabata isn’t likely to be a great option even when he’s hot, he just isn’t a power hitter. He’s a bad fit for that system, especially since you only get one point for a SB. I’d wait to add Young though until we hear the extent of his injury.
By Rob on May 24, 2011
Does Ludwick have enough pop in his bat to be relevant in my system?