A Wacky Monday
May 23rd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
There’s no rhythm or reason at all with my report today – I’m completely flying by the seat of my pants. That’s what happens when you are up late with a special lady. You just say forget it when it comes to your work and daydream about spending all your time with her.
Mitchell Boggs, the one-time closer for the Cardinals, appears likely to be demoted when the club brings Skip Schumaker back off the DL. Boggs has had a few rough spots this year no doubt, but his ratios are all still pretty darn good (3.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 4.75 K/BB). Trust me, I get why the club would send Boggs to Triple-A while holding on to Ryan Franklin – he’s a vet with a ton of end of the game experience – but if this was purely a baseball decision how in the world would Franklin remain on the roster with a 9.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 3.07 K/9 and 1.00 K/BB over the younger, harder throwing, and more productive Boggs? Since we’re talking about the Cardinals’ bullpen, you saw that they’ve likely found their 9th inning man after Fernando Salas had a week for the ages with four saves and a win in five appearances, right? Beat that for fantasy value in a H2H setup. Through 20.2 innings he has 20 Ks, has only issued five free passes, and is sporting a 1.87 ERA. If you grabbed him off waivers you might have hit the jackpot after a month of trying to read the tea leaves in St. Louis.
Kevin Gregg has a loss, two blown saves and an ERA of nearly 8.50 over his last six outings. Meanwhile, Koji Uehara continues to hum along with vastly superior numbers including a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10.35 K/9 and a 4.60 K/BB ratio. Honestly, it’s pretty shocking that the Orioles haven’t made the move to Koji. Perhaps they just aren’t convinced that he can pitch on back-to-back days, but at this point I’m finding it nearly impossible to work up an argument that would favor Gregg working the ninth over Uehara.
Adam LaRoche is likely to be placed on the DL because of his injured shoulder. He can’t drive the ball a lick, his current SLG is .258, and he just isn’t right. If the club follows through with their plan that would put Mike Morse back into a prominent role since he would likely see most of the starts at first. Morse was everyone’s darling after a massive spring, but he failed to capitalize on his chance early in the year. He’s still only gone deep twice and scored five runs, horrible marks, but he does have 12 hits in his last 30 at-bats (.400) so he might be worth an add as a corner infield option for those of you looking for a bat.
Joe Mauer hopes to return to play in an extended spring training game on Tuesday. He’ll likely play in a few of those games before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. There is no set date for a return, but 10-14 days seems reasonable at this point. We all knew he would be out two months, right? In case you forgot he was last seen on a big league diamond on April 12th.
Jered Weaver was 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA in April. May has completely flipped his performance on its ear as he is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA. Here is a wonderful diddy from Elias. Weaver is the first pitcher since 1884 to win his first six decisions and then lose his next four. The last guy to do it was Jumbo McGinnis for the St. Louis Browns of the American Association. In case you were wondering, Jumbo posted a 2.95 ERA on his way to winning 102 games in his career.
Finally, if you’re sending in any questions, let me know which superhero movie you are mostly looking forward to this year:
Captain America
Green Lantern
Thor
X-Men: First Class
Tags: Adam LaRoche, Fernando Salas, Joe Mauer, Kevin Gregg, Koji Uehara, Mike Morse, Mitchell Boggs, Ryan Franklin, Superhero
By FP on May 23, 2011
Ray,
It would have to be Captain America. Also, IMHO when you “hit it big” seek out Ms. Kunis. Natalie P. is a babe, but her soon to be new born may interefere with your social life.
2C’s required in my 5×5 roto….is my #2C W. Ramos or Ianetta?
By Kevin on May 23, 2011
I was offered Gallardo/Stanton for Lincecum in a H2H 16 Team Keeper League. I love HR as it contributes to so many categories and Stanton looks like he could put up huge power numbers as early as this season.
By mikey on May 23, 2011
ray,
I have buchholz and masterson going up against each other tonight,how should i approach this. sit one or start them both?
By Dave on May 23, 2011
X-men firstclass is my choice Ray it looks pretty awesome. Now to my question which one start pitcher to start this week. Bumgarner or J. Zimm?
By Tyler on May 23, 2011
Hey Ray-
We have some pretty high profile FA in my standard 10-team league…I have LoMo and Adam Jones rotating in my UTIL spot, I dont have any positional weakness (in my opinion) but I am looking to add the best player available in hopes to eventually trade them away once R. Zimmerman comes off the DL. The available players that I could swap Jones or LoMo with include…A. Rios, D. Young, Rajai Davis, A. Lind (DL), Ryan Roberts. Is there an upgrade available among these underperformering/injured/emerging players?
Thanks a bunch…and P.S. I am interested to see how Van Wilder does as the Green Lantern haha
By Jason on May 23, 2011
Ray, I love the stuff you do, and I never miss an entry!
I know that everyone values players differently, but I was just wondering what you thought about this deal. The guy I proposed it to gave it “1 star” on ESPN and called me crazy for offering it. I was wondering if I actually was…
Neil Walker for Stephen Drew. Crazy or no?
By wesley on May 23, 2011
would you drop scott baker or jordan zimmerman for zack britton. 10 team h2h league thanks ray
By Jeff on May 23, 2011
I received a trade offer. I would give up Braun and get Roy Halladay.
By Ricky S on May 23, 2011
Ray,
I’m most looking forward to seeing Captain America for one.
For two, in a 5×5, who do you like better for the rest of the year: Bud Norris or Chad Billingsley?
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
FP – Great advice on the ladies. Mila it is.
Capt. America – really looking forward to it to. Though, dude played The Torch in Fantastic 4, so I’m not sure I love him playing another super hero.
I’d say Iannetta. He has the upside in the power department while Ramos is more of a placeholder type.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Kevin – The deeper leagues get, the more important it is to hold on to elite level talent. Lincecum is obviously the very definition of that. At the same time, he is a pitcher, and one who isn’t exactly the biggest. Maybe he continues to confound and dominate despite his smallish frame. Still, Gallardo is young, has a better build, and is a fine K artist in his own right. Stanton could be an absolute beast – the new Adam Dunn if you will.
If cost/years aren’t in play, I’d say go for Gallardo and Stanton, especially since Gallardo is two years younger than Lincecum.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Mikey – Sorry I didn’t get to this question earlier. I was prepping for the radio show when you sent it in.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Dave – I never read the comic books as a kid, you?
Bumgarner faces the Marlins this week and is coming off 5-straight quality starts.
Zimmerman has tossed 4-straight and gets to face the Padres.
Tough call with the youngsters, but I’d go Zimmerman.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Tyler – Van Wilder was pretty good in Waiting. Ever see that one?
I think that Rios is a must add. However, with the way he has played, his trade value wouldn’t be too high, so adding him doesn’t help you there. Lind was killing it before he was hurt, but clearly if he is on waivers no one really cares in your league because it’s so shallow.
I’d say keep the two guys you got for now. If you want to trade one and then also add Rios, I’d be in favor of that.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Ricky S – Rest of the way give me Biillingsley. He is the more stable, proven arm. Norris is the high upside guy, but until he rattles off three years like Billingsley has, it’s no contest. Plus, Chad gets to pitch in dodger stadium, petco and San Fran, and those all help a pitcher out.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Jason – Glad you continually stop by and enjoy my work.
Walker for Drew isn’t crazy. I’d prefer to have Drew, cause he plays SS and cause I still think there is a bit more to give, but I don’t know why anyone would think this was crazy. Walker has a bit better line right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if Drew snuck past him by the end of the year.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Wesley – in a 10 team league, Britton loses a lot of value. The main reason is a total lack of Ks. His 5.03 K/9 mark is two batters below the big league average. Plus, his ERA is artificially low right now, a good run and a half below where it should be.
He’s been great, and I wouldn’t fault you for adding him, but I want the other two arms.
By Ray Flowers on May 23, 2011
Jeff – It’s all about need. Both players (Braun, Halladay) are on pace to be top-15 performers this year. Do you need the offense or the pitching? Both guys are rock solid and figure to be the same players the rest of the way that they have been thus far. The answer totally depends on the makeup of your club.
By Alan on May 24, 2011
Definitley Capt. America for me.
Yesterday I asked about R. Hernandez as Catcher. Today a guy dropped Avila. I still have G. Soto on the DL. Who is the better option in a points league, R. Hernandez, Avila or Soto? Btw, it’s a one catcher league.
By Bobby on May 24, 2011
Hello Ray.
I am in a 5×5 10 team league i need R,RBI,SB,AVG I need to drop one of the following players .
A PAGEN, SWISHER, RIOS, DELMON YOUNG , MY worst pitcher is Hellickson ID RATHER not drop him. I am leaning. towards SWISHER OR PAGEN.
WHICH one should i dump?
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Alan – I’d rank them Soto, Avila, Hernandez. However, since Soto is injured, wouldn’t blame you for adding Avila. However, do NOT expect what you saw in April. Avila is the May version at best (.250/.355/.481).
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Bobby – Dump Pagan. What have we seen from him? Jack. He’s also still working his way back in the minors. I’m not going to dump Swisher who has been good for six years and who hits in a great park and a great lineup, for a guy who is in a bad hitters park and only has one good season under his belt.
By Alan on May 24, 2011
What are your thoughts on striking while the iron is hot and picking up one of these guys now:
Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings, Anthony Rizzo?
By Chad on May 24, 2011
Ray- I’m really beginning to worry about Dunn. Do you think he will bounce back? It seems like he’s striking out every at bat. What realistic stats should I look for for the rest of the season?
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Chad – I continue to say it, Dunn should be fine. I completely understand your concerns, but I can tell you this – in every league where I don’t have Dunn I’m trying to get Dunn.
For seven years he was as stable as any option in the game. Did he just lose it overnight? I don’t think so. He just needs to find his balance at the plate, return to being selective, and let the game come to him.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Alan – I’ve probably answered this question 35 times the past three weeks.
Yes you can add any or all of them, they are all elite talents.
However, we are not certain when any will be called up.
We also have no idea if they will succeed or fail. Remember, not every elite prospect makes it, and certainly not all of them take off running right away.
By Joel on May 24, 2011
Ray: I can trade (through 2 trades) Braun, Youkilis and Torrriii for Bautista, Ellsbury and Aramis Ramirez. H2H 12 team. what do u think?
By Carl on May 24, 2011
Ray, you mentioned earlier that the deeper the league, the more important to hold onto elite level talent? I would think it’s opposite. A shallow league you need to have studs at most positions while a deepers league you can go for more quantity of talent because the waiver wire is thiner. Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Carl – In a 10 team league, everyone is an all-star. You can go to the waiver wire at the end of the year and pick up a guy with 21 homers and 73 RBI or a pitcher with 13 wins and a 3.87 ERA. Guys like that start in 15 team leagues, and they are on waivers at the end of the year in shallow leagues.
The point is, in a 10 team league you can’t help but have studs at the majority of positions – there just there for the taking. In those stupid 10 team leagues that only start three outfielders and don’t have a middle or corner infield option it’s even easier
The deeper you penetrate into the player pool the more important that it is to have elite talent. If I have an injury in a 15 team league I pick up a guy hitting .275-13-63. In a 10 team league you can add a .285-22-75 guy…
By david on May 24, 2011
hi, ray. special ladies are the best. i’m in a 12 team mixed weekly head-to-head league. it’s 6×6, in which the sixth categories are K’s for batters and losses for pitchers.
i’m doing well across the board, but SB’s and K’s for pitchers are my weakest categories. i was thinking of offering teixeira and masterson for elvis andrus and clayton kershaw. the other manager needs rbi help. i have a variety of 1B options: zobrist, helton, adam lind and justin smoak that i can platoon in with teixeira gone (who will probably heat up as he usually does as the season goes on). i currently have itzuris maicer izturis at short. am i offering too much? enough? other SP’s i could offer are lowe, hudson, chaill, bucholz, or bailey if he thinks he’s giving up too much pitching. captain america.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Joel – I wouldn’t give up Braun and Youkilis. You saw my thoughts above on Youk, and Braun is a top-10 option. I’m telling you and everyone, Bautista can’t keep this up. I do like the add of Ramirez, maybe you can just do that straight up for Hunter?
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
David – teixeira and masterson for elvis andrus and clayton kershaw
You need speed, and want to boost your SS spot, than Andrus is a solid option. I’d also completely want Kershaw over Masterson, not even close.
The questions is – giving up tex in the deal make sense?
Because I’m not convinced that Masterson can keep this up I’d say this deal is passable, though it’s not a huge win for you.
By Jeremy on May 24, 2011
hey Ray, how long do hold onto Latos? He has 2 starts next week and I think I have to bench him… And do you think Harange will bounce back to his early season form? I think he’s getting benched too. The Padres are just too bad.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Jeremy – There is no reason to give up on Latos. Almost a K per inning is strong. His xFIP, which normalizes his out of control HR rate, says his ERA should be 3.99. All of the hits he is giving up are leaving the yard. When that normalized, he should be fine. Latos was never going go post a a 2.92 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season, but he has plenty of time to get those numbers to 3.50 and 1.25 and be a strong fantasy.
Harang is fine. 4.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP aren’t bad – not when his career marks are 4.33 and 1.35. His K/9 rate is down a batter and that needs to improve, but this is pretty much what he is.
Sounds like you just overestimated the value of both guys coming into the year.
By Jeremy on May 25, 2011
Thanks Ray… Latos was a keeper and I was hoping for better than a 1-6 start.
Harang was a waiver pickup. I see his regression and wonder if Brandon Webb is the better comeback option. Bumgardner, Carmona, and Wade Davis are also all on waivers and wonder it they are better pickups. I think you are high on Bumbargner.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Jeremy – Honestly, if you think Webb is a better option than Harang, you might be the only one. There’s is no way I’d suggest that move. Never. I won’t trust Webb at all when he gets back. It’s been far too long to have faith in him.
Keep Latos, who looked really solid today.
If you want to add Bumgarner over Harang, I wouldn’t have a problem with that.