Mailbag: May 24, 2011
May 24th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Do you expect Dan Uggla to come back to life?
– @EadlRosa
Let me repeat my oft head comment about Uggla, though apparently I haven’t said it enough as people continually send me notes about giving up on Uggla. In each of the last five seasons, the only five seasons he has been in the majors mind you, Uggla has hit 27 homers, had 88 RBI and scored 84 runs. In the history of baseball, as long as they have been playing the game, no second baseman can match that streak. Ever. In fact, no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years. That doesn’t mean that de facto Uggla will get there again this year, it’s merely meant to illustrate his historically excellent consistency. I’m going to trust those five years over 49 games of poor performance in a Braves uniform this season when trying to determining the value of the 31 year old second baseman.
In terms of his current performance, his K-rate has been at least 25 percent each of the past four years, and he’s currently at 21.1 percent. However, he just can’t hit em’ where they ain’t. His current BABIP is .197, and that’s only .098 points below his career mark. He could pull an Aaron Hill, we saw what that meant in 2010 for the Blue Jays’ second baseman, but the odds are strong that Uggla will rebound the rest of the way.
Kevin Youkilis for Ike Davis and Dan Uggla in a 6×6 league with OPS?
– @RyanSchwep
Youkilis was injured an ineffective in April only to break out in May as he’s hit .338 with a 1.027 OPS and 17 RBI in 19 games. That run of games has upped his numbers back into the pantheon of third basemen (.275-8-32-29). Like Uggla, Youkilis is exceedingly consistent as he has hist at least .288 with a .390 OBP in each of the last four seasons. When you toss in his eligibility at first and third base, you have a player who is clearly a difference maker. In addition, because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has posted an OPS of at least .958 each of the past three years, and his mark of .964 from 2008-10 is the best mark in the American League and second in baseball (Albert Pujols, 1.074). To compare Uggla, who I mentioned above, doesn’t possess the ability to hit for an average or to get on base like Youkilis, and the best single season OPS of his career is .877.
Davis is out with an ankle issue. He has resumed some baseball related activities, but he still hasn’t begun running yet (the hope is that he could return late this week). There is always risk adding a player coming back off injury, especially so when that player has all of 652 big league at bats. I’m not going to sit here, and yes I do type these reports sitting and not standing at my homemade bar (this Manhattan is pretty good actually), and say that Davis is overrated, but I think people are a little ahead of themselves in terms of their expectations. Though he’s hitting .302 this year, he did bat just .264 last year. He’s still striking out in a quarter of his at-bats, and yet again has a below average line drive rate (17.0 percent). At that level, it’s pretty tough to posit a continuation of his current .344 BABIP. The power is legit though.
I’d keep Youkilis. He is the best player of the three, and even though I’m a big fan of Uggla’s, there’s just no way he, or Davis for that matter, will be able to match the elite level OPS of Youkilis.
I just traded Neil Walker for Jordan Zimmerman in a keeper league. Is it a good move since I needed pitching help?
– @redskinsp
Walker he been one of the better hitting second baseman in the game so far this year (.276-6-30-28-2). Unfortunately he’s striking out a bit more this season, nearly a quarter of his at-bats, and his ground ball rate is up eight percent this year (44 percent). Neither of those numbers are scary by any means, but both would seem to cap his ability to be an elite option in average or the home run department. Basically, he’s been slightly more effective at going deep this year, thanks to a 40 percent increase in his HR/F ratio, while pretty much maintaining many of the levels he posted last season. If he is able to hold on to what he has shown over his last 155 big league we’re likely looking at a top-10 player at second base.
Zimmerman is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the Nationals are being careful limiting their prized righties innings when possible. After a slow start to the year in the K department, Zimmerman has been bringing the heat in his last three starts racking up 22 Ks in 18.2 innings. He’s also tossed 4-straight quality starts the last four times he has taken the hill. Jordan has also limited the walks to two or fewer in each of his last eight starts, a great sign since pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery often struggle to locate their pitches. A youngster like Walker, Zimmerman has a 8.10 K/9 an a 3.12 K/BB ratio through 176.2 career innings, and numbers like that lead to a lot of success.
Both players are solid building blocks in a keeper league. While Walker will likely be very good, Zimmerman has a shot at being a top-25 starting pitcher option moving forward. Given your stated need of pitching help, I’d feel completely comfortable in making this deal.
The rest of the way… Erik Bedard or Madison Bumgarner?
– @Lintyfresh85
I’ve said this probably 46 times the past three months – when healthy, Bedard is really, really good. However, as we all know, he spends as much time sipping a pina colada as he does climbing onto the bump. Bedard tossed 81 innings in 2008, 83 in 2009 and zero in 2010. He’s up to 45.2 this season, so you have to ask yourself, how much faith do you have in him taking the ball every five games?
Bumgarner is 1-6 so he’s pitched pretty poorly this season. Wait a second, that isn’t true at all actually. Though he has only one victory, each of the last five times he has taken the hill he has produced a “quality start” leading to a 1.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.50 K/BB ratio.
Let’s compare the two directly. Here are their 2011 numbers.
E. Bedard: 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 1.10 GB/FB
Bumgarner: 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.53 K/9, 2.06 K/BB, 1.68 GB/FB
Both are left-handed.
Both are pitching well of late.
Both pitch in great pitcher’s parks.
Do you want the up and comer in Bumgarner or the slightly more skilled, but infinitely more volatile Bedard?
As much as I love the skills of Bedard I just cannot trust him to make 30 starts, so I’d go with the Giants’ lefty.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Dan Uggla, Erik Bedard, Ike Davis, Jordan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, Madison Bumgarner, MLB Mailbad, Niel Walker
By Jim on May 24, 2011
Thoughts on Andy Dirks?
Thanks,
Jim
MySports1 (Twitter)
By Mike on May 24, 2011
Ray: Advice needed. I’m weak at Catcher and could use another very good starting pitcher. I’m strong on power numbers (HRs, RBIs) and have Miggy at 1B. I’m tempted to offer Mark Teixeira (who is one of two utility players for me) in a trade for Buster Posey and Shaun Marcum. Which side of that trade would you take for the rest of the season? I’m thinking Posey and Marcum might be a little light on value for Bix Tex, but am not sure the other team would part with more (if even this much). Thanks for your time – much appreciated.
By Pete on May 24, 2011
Thinking about offering Phillips/Quentin for Han-Ram. It’s a keeper league, and I have plenty of outfielders already (Holliday, Lind, Bupton, Hart…). Thoughts?
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Pete – In a keeper league, Phillips/Quentin for Han-Ram is fine in my book. I like Phillips a lot, but Hanley is a more elite talent. Plus, as good as Quentin can be, he’s always injured and a batting average drain.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Jim – Dirks is an AL only option. When Mag Ordonez returns, likely soon, it’s going to be tough for Dirks to get consistent at-bats. Plus, he’s never been an elite prospect, so the Tigers won’t feel like they owe him at-bats either. He’s really just a 4th OF type at this point.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Mike – Pretty shallow league huh?
Tex for Posey/Marcum
If you you need help at catcher and on the hill, you address that perfectly with that deal. I have no issue with the proposed deal since you already have Miggy.
By Mike on May 24, 2011
Ray,
5 x 5 roto, one year keeper at auction cost.
team punting season and looking for keepers.
trade Matt joyce at one buck for David Price, who can’t be kept next yeat. Can you believe bloomberg front office tells me i should get more value for joyce ! Thoughts,
i have hamilton, Mcutchen, stubbs, Delmon young and torri hunter in outfied and also
can use Zobrist and Moreland too.
By wesley on May 24, 2011
somebody just dropped danks in my 10 team h2h league? Would you drop zimmerman or baker for danks?
By SF on May 24, 2011
Hey Ray,
I need some pitching help. What would your thoughts be on trading Weaver for Scherzer and Colby Lewis?
Or i can add Jake Arrieta, Edwin Jackson, Homer Bailey, Jake Westbook or Kyle McCellan.
Thanks for all your help.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Mike – Joyce for Price is a winner for the guy getting price. Joyce is out of control right now, and he’s obviously in line for a major regression. If the soon to be Joyce owner doesn’t mind giving up on the season, then there is nothing wrong with the deal. Even if Joyce is nothing more than a .275-25 guy, that’s still great value for a $1.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
Wesley – Danks is a solid pitcher, and he has pitched MUCH better than he has looked to this point.
You saw my thoughts on Zimmerman in the article, and you know that I’m a huge fan of baker. You can add Danks, but as my top 100 showed, they are all pretty much the same hurler.
By Ray Flowers on May 24, 2011
SF – If you could move Weaver for Scherzer and Lewis, you have to do it. Those are the two best names you listed, and they would be a great duo to get for Weaver. In fact, by the time the year is over, it’s quite possible that either Lewis or Scherzer will be just as good as Weaver. They likely won’t be, but the only way you wouldn’t come out ahead on this deal would be if one of the guys got hurt.
By cameron on May 25, 2011
hey ray,
between moustakas and rizzo, who do you think gets the call first? personally i’m leaning towards moustakas since apparently the royals think they can win now with the early promotions of hosmer and duffy. but then again the padres are showing that they are willing to make big shakeups with venable’s demotion. but regardless, june 1st is right around the corner so it could go either way right? oh and also, who do you think has the most fantasy value ROTW? what kind of numbers do you foresee for each? thanks for all your insight.
By Ricky S on May 25, 2011
Ray,
I think I already know the answer to this since I know you’ll take the proven guy everytime, but who do you like the rest of the way between Aaron Hill and Danny Espinosa. It seems like it would be Hill, but I think Espinosa has all the skills. What do you think?
By Alan on May 25, 2011
Ray,
I’m having trouble on deciding which player to keep, Barney or Turner?
They seem pretty similar. It’s a 10 team points league.
By Erik on May 25, 2011
Ray – best fantasy radio show and website, huge fans here in Michigan. #1. J. Contreras, is he worth a look in 10 team mixed roto leagues, and #2. what do you think of the voice impersonations the morning guys from rotoexperts.com do of you and Kyle?
thks!
By Ricky S on May 25, 2011
Also, is there a website you recommend to find advanced stats? I can’t find one where I can see BABIP, K/9, K/BB ratio, fly ball ratios, etc. If you have an advanced site, please relay it on. Thanks again buddy.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Cameron – I’ll honestly tell you the same thing I tell everyone else – I really don’t know. It’s a total guessing game. I’d think Rizzo gets called first, Moustakas hasn’t hit well this year and the Royals already have a capable player in Betemit.
As for numbers, there’s NO way to know that since it all comes down to playing time. Moutsakas should have enough power off the hop to be of interest, though some think his average might lag a bit. Rizzo? All depends how his power plays at Petco which certainly won’t help at all.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Ricky S – Espinosa has skills, but one of them is not the ability to produce a batting average. Hill also has doubled Espinosa in steals, which I’m surprised by. Still, Hill was top-5 at 2B last 2 years in homers/RBI, and though he’s start has been awful, he does own a .269 career average, and it’s nearly impossible to think that Espinosa will hit that mark this season while I think Hill is a good bet to.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Alan – to be honest, in a 10 team league, all you are doing is treading water with either of those guys at second. I honestly don’t think either ends the year as a top-10 option at the position, and since your league is so small, I wouldn’t stress too much about the decision. I’d keep Barney.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Erik- Hey man, thanks for the support – always great to hear.
I would not bother with Contreras in a 10 team league right now. He’s behind Madson who has pitched very well, and when LIdge comes back, that leaves Contreras as #3 in my mind.
As for the voices, we’ve talked about that a lot on our show. Personally, I don’t think my voice sounds like Chef from the Muppets… they do a good job though, pretty funny.
By Doug on May 25, 2011
Hi. I’m in a 12-team, large roster, points league with 38 categories designed to emulate real baseball value (holds, OF assists, caught stealing, etc). I made a 2 for 1 and need a SP… considering:
Blackburn – hot even on the road
Vargas – few wins cause no hitting
Vogelsong – will he get shut down?
Piniero – Injury risk?
Buehrle – like him but seems to get fewer starts than others (3 vs 5 for Blackburn in past 21 days)
Your thoughts?
Thanks
Doug
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Doug – None of those guys is going to be a difference maker in a 12 teamer.
Blackburn is pitching out of his mind right now – regression is coming.
Vargas is a solid hurler who could keep this up.
Vogelsong has looked great, but what happens when Zito returns?
Pineiro is solid, but injuries and lack of Ks an issue.
Buehrle will be solid, give you innings and wins, but again, no Ks.
By Doug on May 25, 2011
K’s are a minimal consideration… lack of walks equally important – Wins and Quality Starts are critical… more like real baseball, far from 5×5 here. Same answer? No fav?
Blackburn is pitching out of his mind right now – regression is coming.
Vargas is a solid hurler who could keep this up.
Vogelsong has looked great, but what happens when Zito returns?
Pineiro is solid, but injuries and lack of Ks an issue.
Buehrle will be solid, give you innings and wins, but again, no Ks.
By FP on May 25, 2011
Hey Ray! Need some advice (well that’s pretty obvious isn’t it?). Want to pick up Tabata for R and SB potential but alreay have 6 OF to cover 5 OF and one U position. They are Stanton, Choo, Delmon, Torii, A. Torres and Grady. IYHO is Tabata an upgrade over any of those choices? Thanks.
By Chad on May 25, 2011
Ray- I’m dealing with slumps and injuries. I have Holiday and Cuddyer DTD with Pablo on the DL and Dunn in slump. I dropped Fowler and picked up Hinske. Is Morse worth a pick up now that LaRoche is out? Would you drop Maybin, Norris, H. Bailey or Anibal Sanchez for Morse?
By Reese on May 25, 2011
Ray need your advise. I have Victorino and Sizemore coming off the dl in the next week or so. I only have 2 open bench slots. I have Werth, Joyce, and Delmon YOUNG in my outfield. I have been playing Morneau and Hosmer in my Utl spots. Jeter holds my other bench spot.
So my question is do i try and trade hosmer and either victorino or sizemore or do i just drop one of them? Thanks for you time.
lucroy(mauer-dl), Konerko, Cano, Reyes, M.Young(zimmerman-dl) fills out the rest of my lineup.
By Alan on May 25, 2011
Which of the following would you go with in a Points league:
Span, Huff, D. Young, Francoeur
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
FP – I like Tabata, and think he will obviously improve as we move forward, but I don’t see that you have an obvious dump. You could move Hunter or Young, but based on their history, I’d be reluctant to do that.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Chad – Hinske is nothing but a short-term answer. Morse should play everyday now that LaRoche is out of action, and that certainly makes him worth a look. However, I wouldn’t drop any of the players you listed to pick him up.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Reese – Can’t drop Sizemore, and you certainly cannot drop Victorino. Problem is, you won’t get anything near full value for them at this point since they are hurt. If I was going to trade one it would certainly be Sizemore.
You will have to do a 2-for-1 deal to open up a roster spot, right? What about Hosmer/Sizemore or Hosmer/Young. That might get you some action.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Alan – Span is a great player, but no power gives him less than ideal value in points. Huff has been pretty awful, as has Young. Bother play loaded positions, so its tough to roll with them right now. Frenchie’s already started his downward trend.
I’d say take a chance on Young, but he has looked bad so far.
By Reese on May 25, 2011
Thanks ray thats what ive been thinking. This league is 10 team head to head but we score so differently. I hated it at 1st but as the season goes on i really like it. You have to watch every part of the game.
runs, hrs, rbi, sb, walks, so, fielding pct.,avg, and ops
inngs, wins, saves,cg, hrs, ks, era, and whip
By jay on May 29, 2011
hey ray, love the site and the show, listen to ya’ll when im driving to and from work as i listen to the replay also. have a quick question. 5×5 roto and i need a 3b. i currently have callaspo and izturis to fill in right now…available are encanarcion, rolen, headley, figgins, tejada and wiggy…a few others but nothign special…id love to believe that rolen will hit 18-20 bombs and .280 or encanarcion will live up the hype…but right now im getting by with the other 2…i know it wont last…need some help my man…thanks and good luck with the neighbors wife..
By Ray Flowers on May 29, 2011
Jay – Glad we can help you out on the ride home from work, thanks for listening.
We all need 3B help, don’t we?
EE will not live up to hype it appears.
Even less faith that Rolen hits 20 HRs.
Headley taking the walk, but little else.
I’d look to add Figgins. Quals at 2b/3b, though he continues to struggle. However, he’s only an add if you need speed as you are well aware.
I’ll let the neighbors wife know you are cheering for her.
By jay on May 30, 2011
thanks ray…dont really need the speed as i am a 9 of 12 in sb’s…but cant hurt to move to an 11 or 12 i suppose…better than remaining stagnant with izturis at the corner…just hard to move a .290 hitter for a sub .200 hitter on SEATTLE…yeah know…but thanks for the reply…happy memorial day