How is This Happening?
May 25th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
I’ve only said it about 1,629 times, and I’ve continued to write about it recently in Bonds, Ruth and Bautista? Sometimes, things occur that defy explanation. I could sit here and spend the next 13 weeks writing a massive compendium of a work detailing how this doesn’t make sense, or how that can’t possibly continue. More times than not I’m going to be right, but of course no one is 100 percent correct, not me, not historical track records, or even the numbers themselves (hello Jose Bautista).
Still, I remain undaunted.
I’m going to hit on a handful of hurlers that I think are pretty much sure bets to regress as the season moves forward. Before I list the actual hurlers I’d suggest you familiarize yourself with my thought process as to why the soon to be mentioned hurlers will be unable to remain on their current paths to greatness.
The easiest way to understand where I’m coming from is to give Which Pitchers Should I Target? a read. In that piece I lay out the basics which, simply put, say to target pitchers with a K/9 rate of 6.50 and a BB/9 mark of 3.30 or lower. Of course pitchers can have success not hitting both of those levels (let me be clear there are always pitchers who succeed without hitting both those targets), especially those that are ground ball hurlers, but it’s a nice general rule to go by when assembling a fantasy rotation. In addition, keep in mind that starting pitchers only contribute in four of the five traditional categories, so even if the guy has a “good” season, if he only strikes out 120 batters he really doesn’t help your squad that much.
With that, here are a handful of pitchers who it would be wise to deal now if you are in a mixed league before their seasons go from great to merely average (some of the names listed should be obvious, but based on the questions I get every day, it doesn’t seem like everyone is in agreement).
Note: xFIP is a measure that normalizes home run rates and tells you what a pitchers actual ERA should be based upon the factors that are in his control.
Nick Blackburn: 3.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.87 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 3.85 xFIP
Blackburn normally throws strikes, but he simply doesn’t miss any bats. He has offset that issue by inducing a career best 53 percent of batted balls toward the infield grass (career 47 percent). However, he’s giving up more liners than he has the last three years and his walk rate is also a career worst. Get out quick.
Zack Britton: 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.85 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 3.80 xFIP
Doing an even better job than Blackburn inducing grounders (56 percent), this rookie has been terrific. Still, there’s little other than his impressive ground ball rate to really like here. Given that fact, and that even in a best case scenario that the team could limit his innings late in the year, it would be wise to see if someone would give you starter #2 value for a guy who really is a #4 at best.
Jair Jurrjens: 1.56 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.15 K/9, 1.40 BB/9, 2.73 xFIP
You know he isn’t Greg Maddux so a regression is coming. The question is – how much? Here is what I see. He’s got the worst K-rate of his career, more than a full batter below his career mark. His walk rate is fantastic, but this is a guy who has for each of the past four years posted a mark of at least 3.14. Is he really going to cut that in half? His HR/9 rate is half of normal. His left on base percentage is 86 percent. For his career it’s 74.4. He does have a strong 1.59 GB/FB ratio, but that doesn’t make up for everything else.
Kyle Lohse: 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.96 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 3.61 xFIP
Unlike others on this list, Lohse has an extensive history of a decade of major league work. Beyond the obvious, things like never posting an ERA under 3.78 or a WHIP better than 1.27 in any season, are the following points. His K-rate is the 2nd worst of his 11 year career. He’s BB-rate is a full batter below his career mark. His HR/9 mark is literally a third of normal (0.36 compared to 1.11). His BABIP is .080 points below his career rate. His 80 percent LOB mark is 10 percentage points clear of his career rate. Oh, and his GB/FB ratio of 1.29 is only slightly better than his career 1.13 rate. You’re playing with fire if you continue to handle Lohse.
Charlie Morton: 2.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 4.21 BB/9, 3.89 xFIP
He looks like Roy Halladay with his revamped delivery and he has generated a rather amazing 62.5 percent ground ball rate leading to a stupendous 3.43 GB/FB ratio. I don’t think he can keep up that rate, but even if it falls to 2.43 he should be able to have real world success. Still, he’s just not a solid fantasy option in mixed leagues. He never strikes anyone out, walks more batters than the big league average, and though his line drive rate is the same as always, his BABIP is .262, a mere .047 points lower than normal. Oh, and don’t get me started on his 80 percent LOB mark which is only 15 percentage points better than his career rate.
Josh Tomlin: 2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.53 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 4.25 xFIP
Unlike others on this list who have had a lot of success because they have kept the ball on the ground, Tomlin has been nothing other than average in that category. In fact, he’s been worse than big league average with a 37 percent ground ball rate leading to a a terrible 0.89 GB/FB mark (the league average is usually about 1.10). So how has he had success? Sheer luck. He rarely misses a bat, and when the ball does hit the wood, he’s been about the luckiest cat on the planet. Though his line drive rate is nearly 22 percent, his BABIP is .175. You remember that the big league averages are 19-20 and .300 right? That means Tomlin is giving up more line drives than average but that he is somehow holding batters to a hit rate that is only 2/3 of normal. There is on way that trend will remain intact the rest of the season.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Charlie Morton, How to Evaluate Pitchers, Jair Jurrjens, Josh Tomlin, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Zach Britton
By Tom on May 25, 2011
Hey Ray, so are you saying to trade these guys? If so, it’s begs the question of ‘Can you get more value back than you give up’? Looking at Lohse for instance, who is a huge favorite to regress for obvious reasons. Let’s say xFIP is a good guess toward future ERA; his is a 3.61. Could you really deal him and get someone who you expect to have an ERA under 3.60? Then it also begs the question of how much longer can the charade last? What if Lohse continues to be dominant for another month before regressing to that xFIP…then his future performance might really be 3.30 or 3.40 era. And I’d nearly guarantee you couldn’t do better than that via trade.
Also, don’t forget how misleading xFIP is. It does normalize HR rates. But people mistake that for being out of the pitchers’ control. Many times, it isn’t. Lohse, for instance, has had HR/FB rates under 10% in 4 of 5 seasons before this year (and before the positive adjustments he’s made this year). So regressing him to league avg HR/FB is erroneous. And with a top 10 defense behind him, LD% under 20%, and GB% over 45%, he can keep his babip under .300 as well (better than league avg). So his xFIP drastically undervalues expected future performance even with regression. Just a few thoughts to consider.
By brad on May 25, 2011
thinking of trading hammels for berkman my outfield is bad but my oitching is good cain becket w rodriguez oswalt porcello and wakefield
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Tom – Great response. Maybe you should be writing for BBGuys?
Let’s play with some numbers.
Let’s give Lohse has an ERA this season of 3.50. That’s slightly better than his xFIP, and three tenths better than he has ever done in 10 seasons.
Lets give him a round 200 innings pitched. Don’t forget he hasn’t hit 200 innings since 2008, and that’s the only time he has hit that level in seven seasons.
If he has a 3.51 ERA over 200 innings, building off his current marks (2.06 and 74.1 IP), his ERA the rest of the season would be — 4.37 (61 ERA in 125.2 IP).
Do you want a 4.37 ERA with a K/9 rate of five on your mixed league squad? If you do, it had better be a 15 team league.
Great response Tom.
By Eric on May 25, 2011
Well Ray i see you are transferring some of you hate of Vancouver to some pitchers who are preforming well this year. I feel obligated to defend one of them.
Mr Zack Britton:
You make the comment that other than his ground ball rate there isn’t much to like here. Ray yes there is. Let me point out a few of them.
1) 99.9% of us Zack Britton owner got him off the waiver wire.
2) Despite his bad start last outing he is the 25th best pitcher in my leagues scoring system.
3) 1.12 Whip 8 QS 5 W
You talk about his low strike out rate but isn’t it true that most strikeout pitcher are fly ball pitchers. Also since most of us got him on the wavier wire such as me i have him paired with Justin Verlander, Shaun Marcum among others so on my team his low ERA and whip are a very nice complement to my staff. I know you are like Dave Dombrowski and if a guy doesn’t throw 100+ and strikes out 12/9 you dont like him. Not all pitcher can be like Al Alburquerque and have a 15.26/9
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Eric – As I clearly stated in the piece, (A) some pitchers succeed when you don’t think they should, (b) some pitchers succeed regardless of trying to put them in a box, and (c) being a prime time ground ball pitcher covers up all kinds of sins.
Also, I was NOT talking about whether a guy will be a solid pitcher or not, I was talking about his fantasy value. As I also pointed out, if a guys has a “good” year but only gives you 120 Ks, he’s not going to give you the fantasy value that you are looking for in standard mixed leagues. He’d be a strong depth option, but not someone who leads your teams.
To your last point — if you got him off waivers, then he’s been a bonanza and a GREAT value. I was talking in the article about rest of the way, not ROI.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Brad – Cole Hamels for Berkman is way too much in my mind. Berkman has nowhere to go but down, while Hamels should be a top-15 SP this year if he can avoid injury. If you are going to move Hamels, you should aim higher in my opinion.
By Dennis on May 25, 2011
Hi Ray,
Since the topic is pitching, I wanted ask what you think of mine. 5×5 roto, 11 teams, start 9 pitchers (no rule on SP vs RP). Here is my staff: Marcum, Colby Lewis, Shields, Wandy Rodriguez, Hellickson, Gavin Floyd, Erik Bedard, JJ Putz, Valverde and Walden. Dropped Baker for Bedard to get the two starts next week but usually rotate the last three starters into 1 or 2 spots and start 2 or 3 relievers (usually go 6 SP and 3 RP). Baker not well liked in the league so I can go back anytime and grab him. I don’t have a top 15 starter (although Marcum and Shields look close with some of the others close behind). Over all I feel like it’s a solid group. Does it look like a group I can count on to finish in 3rd/4th across the five categories? That’s about where I am now. My hitting is solid but I could trade Holiday for a top 15 and hope Delmon Young and Dunn get going to pick up the slack. Currently slightly behind in hitting but the deficit is runs and SB’s so I am okay with trailing right now. Posey, Dunn, M Young (2B), Prado (MI), Furcal, Polanco, Trumbo(CI), Kemp, Gardner, Braun, Melky Cabrera (subbing for Holiday this week), Tabata with D Young and Holiday sitting. We play 5 OF’s each week. Any thoughts?
Forgot to include Ian Kennedy in my group of must start pitchers. Floyd, Hellickson and Bedard (previously Baker) are the rotation guys.
Thanks,
Dennis
By brad on May 25, 2011
sorry you didnt like the berkman trade but in 15 team league its tough to pick up hitting and pitching seems plentiful. another question though was offered holliday and weeks for batista and murphy. what do you think about selling batista high and is this enough and is holliday healthy
By Bryon on May 25, 2011
Hey Ray,
I want to try a trade to get Ryan Braun. I’m thinking pairing Jaime Garcia with one of my outfielders, either Eithier or Nelson Cruz. I don’t want to give up Holliday. Another option is to pair James Shields with one of the outfielders, but I am more hesitant to do that because pitching is where the points are in my league and I feel that Shields will be an upper tier pitcher all year. what do you think? Is there a chance he would go for it?
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Bryon – Garcia/Cruz for Braun is a lot to give up. I’d prefer Braun for sure, and I expect that Garcia will regress as we move forward. However, depending on the Braun owner, there might be no love for Cruz who just came off the DL, especially since Cruz hasn’t been running this year.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Brad – Holliday/Weeks for Bautista/Murphy. Is that Daniel or David? Honestly it doesn’t really matter because I would do the deal with either. Holliday has at least a 50/50 shot of matching Bautista the rest of the way, and if Weeks can stay healthy his value will dominate that of either Murphy.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Dennis – Right now, Marcum/Shileds are both top-15, though I agree with you that expecting some regression is warranted. Both should still be really solid though. I also agree with you, that’s a solid group of hurlers. I worry a bit about Walden, but since he is your third CL you should be OK there.
I don’t see the need to move Holliday to get a better arm. It would certainly help, but you already have a strong group of arms here. I’d keep Holliday.
By brad on May 25, 2011
it daniel murphy of the mets i was worried about hollidays health though? he is out with calf injury. do you know about injury before i make trade.
By Bob on May 25, 2011
Hello Ray.
I am in a 5×5 10 team NON KEEPER league.
I was offered A-ROD,McCann for Longoria, K SUZUKI. My patience is running thin on Longoria i know he was injured for a month but lets call a spade a spade he has been useless so far in 2011…..
By dennis on May 25, 2011
Thanks Ray! I appreciate the input. I have “rabbit ears” when it comes to the razzing from my fellow owners so it’s nice to have an impartial opinion.
Question – What do you think of Melky Cabrera so far and ROTW? He may not keep his pace but I don’t think his performance is absurdly out of line. Just a maturing ballplayer in my eyes. 270-65-10-60-10 can be a fill in for me anytime!
By wesley on May 25, 2011
Would you drop Jason bay for any of these free agents: Seth smith, Carlos lee, Tori hunter, or swisher. 10 team h2h league
By Chaka on May 25, 2011
With Lind coming off the DL and my trade attempts fruitless, who gets dropped; LoMo or Brantley?
By Rob on May 25, 2011
Hi Ray,
I need an OF: D. Young, Morse, Ludwick. Who do you prefer in a points system with 1 for RBI, R, BB, SB, Total Bases and -1 K). Power is critical here.
Thanks!
By SF on May 25, 2011
Ray,
Got an offer to run by you, in a ten team roto 5×5. I give up Konerko and in return get Cain and Lowe. I could really use the pitching. Plus i have Text and Bautista for HR (i know your thoughts on Bautista tho). Losing De La Rosa for the year really hurt.
I hate giving up a good bat for pitching but i feel this will balance out my team. Do you think it’s worth it or just try and plug the hole throughout the year on the waiver wire?
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Chaka – Lind could still be a week away from a return. http://www.torontosun.com/2011/05/25/jays-watch-francisco-still-the-closer
When time comes, hold on to LoMo.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Brad – Holliday is out with a quad injury. Believed to be relatively minor. Shouldn’t be a concern long term, though he could be out a few more days.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Bob – Take ARod and McCann. I have little doubt at all that McCann will be the better option. I also dont think there will be much difference between the two third baseman at worst. At best, Arod could be better.
Trade away.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Dennis – The numbers you listed for Melky are completely acceptable to me. At the same time, those numbers are barely worthy of being a fifth outfielder in a 12 team mixed league. He doesn’t own the skills to be a difference maker, but he does have a use if you are realistic about your expectations.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Wesley – Bay just can’t seem to get it going, or to stay healthy. At this point I’d say you can move on. In a 15 teamer you’d hold on, but in a 10 team lg there is always talent on the waiver wire.
Smith continues to be productive. Hard to turn a blind eye to a .304 average and .907 OPS. I’d scoop him up.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
Rob – Power is important, but the issue is also the negative for the Ks.
Morse has been ripping it up of late, but a 27% K rate isn’t too appealing.
Ludwick is slightly better at 21%. He’s also had multiple 20 HR seasons. However he is barely hitting his weight, and he plays in Petco.
Safer play is Ludwick. However, I’d take a shot on Morse talking off.
By Ray Flowers on May 25, 2011
SF – In a 10 team league, there really isn’t much use for Lowe. In fact, he is barely better than league average.
Lowe: 3.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.92 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 8.05 H/9
LgAvg: 3.78 ERA, 1.31WHIP, 7.33 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 8.50 H/9
I’d expect the K-rate to decline as well. The last time it was over 6.70 was 2001 when he was a relief pitcher.
If you really need pitching you can do it, but keep expectations reasonable with Lowe.
By Carl on May 26, 2011
Hi Ray. I have Jeter (SS), Castro (MI), and Furcal (bench). I would obviously like to move one. Furcal’s value is very low right now. Castro is the obvious sell high but would it be unwise for me to move Castro in case Furcal gets injured or just stinks? 13 team league. Thanks!
By Mike on May 26, 2011
Ray, I am fortunate enough to own Bautista. Who should I target if I were to deal him?
By brad on May 26, 2011
after reading your comment about berkman i traded him for Feliz and Tabata I need to move up in saves and steals I do have pierre and a few other runners thought this was good value. As always look foward to hearing your thought still havent traded batista but am very close after you said weeks and Holiday is fair value.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Mike – you can trade Bautista for anyone you want. He’s the #1 guy going right now and everyone loves him. Should be able to take your pick of who you want if you deal him.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Brad – Berkman deal — you got talent, but I would have aimed higher than two guys who are struggling now. Hopefully it works out for you in the long run. Feliz will certainly give you a saves boost if you need it.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Carl – At this point, Furcal and Jeter have little value, so trading them won’t net you much of anything. Castro is the only one you can get strong value for. Now the question about should you trust Furcal is a totally different matter. If it was me, I’d wait a bit to make sure Furcal is healthy. If he performs well, you might be able to peddle him off. If he struggles but still is healthy, you can feel better about moving Castro.
By brad on May 26, 2011
another trade offer Franklin gutierez for M Morse would you do this one?
By FP on May 26, 2011
Ray,
I know you have been and are a backer of Delmon and see him as a player who should be rostered. What do you see his stat line being ROS, and how will he compare to Mike Morse who is now likely to get full time AB’s again?
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Brad – Gutierrez has solid skills, but nothing stands out. I’d take Morse and hope he continues to show his 30 HR bat.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
FP – Mike Morse has never had 16 homers, 50 RBI, 50 runs scored or hit .290 in a season.
Young has a 20 HR season, has knocked in 60 4 times, has scored 40 times and has a .289 career average.
A little unfair sure, but the point is that Young has history on his side, and was a star last year .298-21-112.
Morse certainly has more power, and Young has looked horrible no doubt. If you want to take a chance on Morse’s upside, I wouldn’t blame you.
By CHRIS on May 26, 2011
RAY,
I HAVE POSEY WHO JUST WENT DOWN.LOOKING FOR A REPLACMENT..GOT CARLOS RUIZ, YADIER MOLINA, AND KURT SUZUKI ON THE WAVIER WIRE WHICH ONE OF THOSE GUYS WOULD YOU PICK UP TO REPLACE POSEY??
By Joe Closer on May 26, 2011
3B question:
In a very deep, 13 team, NL only league. Standard roto 5×5.
I have four 3B eligible players (Polanco, Rolen, Prado, Wigginton).
With the scarcity of 3B right now, what do you think I could get for Polanco? I feel like he’d be a good ‘sell-high’ candidate right now.
I could use a starting pitcher, a closer and depth in the OF (I have G.Parra and Rowand both in OF spots).
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Chris – See – http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/26/behind-the-dish
I’d go Molina out of that group.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Joe Closer – Polanco is a good sell high candidate. His avg is down .015 points and his OPS down .039 points last 10 games. He will be solid all year, there is little doubt of that, but he’s playing over his head right now.
That said, I have no idea what you could get for him in your league. Does someone think he’ll hit .325 with 90 RBI this year? Do they think he’ll hit .295 with 70? Drastic difference of course. He should bring a nice return in a deal though given all the issues at 3B this year.
By Tom on May 31, 2011
Ray,
IRT the question asked by Tom above. (Not me)
Isn’t the example you gave with Lohse for the rest of the year similar to the Gambler’s Fallacy? I’ve always been under the impression that xFIP is a predictor of future performance. That would mean we should expect Lohse’s ERA to be around his 3.61 xFIP for *the rest of the season*, not his final stat line. Why would you all of a sudden expect him to be a 4.37 ERA talent pitcher? Not that it matters much for my argument, but if Lohse does perform like a his xFIP suggests his end of the year ERA would be 3.10 in 200 innings.
If you tossed a coin and got 4 heads in a row would you then expect there to be 6 tails in your next 8 tosses?
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Tom – regarding Lohse— here are my thoughts.
The guy has a 4.66 ERA for his career – and that’s been earned over a decade of work. Not 3 weeks, not 2 years, but a full decade. In that time, only once has he been under 4.00 – 3.78 in 2008. History says his current level of production is not sustainable (not to mention the other metrics I mentioned previously. I could break down K rate, LOB, BABIP – and if I did, it would all say that his ERA is going to rise substantially). In addition, it is rare that a pitcher in his 11th season would set career bests all across the board – some of them by substantial margins. It’s not impossible that he will be able to keep this up, its just that the overwhleming data at our disposal suggests that it’s highly unlikely.
I’d expect him to be a 4.37 talent pitcher because, other than eight of 62 months in his career, that’s exactly who he has always been.
By Tom on May 31, 2011
Isn’t his xFIP adjusting for all of those metrics and suggesting he’s a better pitcher this year? By no means am I expecting him to have an sub-3 ERA the rest of the year, but a mid to high 3 ERA seems reasonable.
By Matt on May 31, 2011
ray i have been offered Starlin Castro, Cahill and Domonic Brown for BJ Upton and Oswalt.
i am in first in steals and really need SS (i start bartlett and flavor of the week).
5×5 12 team mixed
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Matt – Turn it down.
Brown isn’t likely to live up to expectations this season. It’s only downhill for Cahill from here. Even if he has a really good season, which I’m still not sold on, he isn’t going to keep up this pace. Castro is a solid option at a weak position, but he has no power at all, and likely won’t steal more bases than Bartlett ROTW (he’s already behind). The avg is nice, but that’s pretty much all I’m counting on.
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Tom – We can go around and around about Lohse, I’m simply not going to change my opinion when 80% of the data supports what I’m saying. Maybe he does prove me wrong, but we’re only a third of the way through the year.