Around the Horn: May 26, 2011
May 26th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |(1) Buster Posey severely injured. Brandon Belt part of the callups as Giants make major changes. If you need help at the catchers position give Behind the Dish a read.
(2) Howie Kendrick to DL with leg issue.
(3) Brandon League is back at it.
(4) Andrew Bailey closing in on return.
(5) How useless are win-loss records to judge pitchers?
(6) Grady Sizemore (knee) could be back on Friday.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Anderw Bailey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Brandon League, Buster Posey, Grady Sizemore, Grant Balfour, Howie Kendrick, JOhn Danks
By Pete on May 26, 2011
Ray, who do you like better as a replacement for Posey?
Lucroy
Posada
Yadier
Buck
Iannetta
Hernandez
I’m leaning towards Iannetta or Lucroy…
thanks.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Pete – I’d go…
Molina, Lucroy, Iannetta, Hernandez, Posada, Buck
By Chris on May 26, 2011
Ray, have a trade question. This is a yahoo 12 team H2H 5×5…I give up Sam Fuld and Cole Hamels for Coco Crisp and Scott Baker.
If Crisp stays healthy I win getting rid of Fuld. Hamels should outperform Baker.
I am stong in HR and RBI but could use the help with the runs and SB. I have been underperforming in pitching all the way around so getting rid of Hamels probably isn’t smart. What do you think?
By Marty on May 26, 2011
Ray,
I pulled off a blockbuster last night (just before I lost Posey!).
I got Matt Holliday, Drew Storen & Andrew Bailey. I gave up Barney, Victorino, Morrison and Brain Wilson.
Was that too much? Who got the better deal? I used the extra roster spot on Bedard. 12 team roto 5×5.
Thanks-
By Tyler on May 26, 2011
I have Wieters at catcher but Avila, Lucroy, and Arencibia are available. Who do you see as having the most value going forward in a std. H2H league? I am concerned that I keep giving Wieters the benefit of the doubt because of his “potential”. Additionally, Avila seems to be a real standout but I am concerned that he might not be able to keep this pace for the rest of the season. I would really appreciate any thoughts. Thanks!
By Joel on May 26, 2011
Ray, in my 6×6 h2h league, been offered ellsbury and Aramis for Torrriiii and Youk. what say you?
By SF on May 26, 2011
Ray,
Thanks for all your help. I’ve asked you a few questions and with your help they’ve all payed off.
What do you think of Choo and Pedoria going forward? I’ve heard mix reviews on pedoria, some say he’ll never be as good as his MVP year. I drafted him and Choo (rounds 3 and 4) and i’m waiting for them to play up to their potential.
Do you think they’ll pick it up?
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Chris – You know I like Baker, but he is nowhere near the horse that Hamels is. If you tell me you are hurting in pitching, I dont think it makes much sense to get rid of a top-20 hurler.
Fuld is useless, and Crisp would be a big upgrade, if as you stated, he could just stay healthy.
Still, I’d hold on to Hamels – he’s the only elite talent in this group.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Marty – Barney is hitting over his head. Victorino should be healthy soon – he’s a tough one to give up. Morrison is playing over his head a bit too in my opinion, there’s just too much power right now. Wilson, stud.
Holliday, if he didnt have the leg concern, would appear to be locked into a run at NL MVP. Storen is no Wilson, but he has locked down the 9th for the Nats. Bailey is the key – if healthy he has top-10 CL talent. Can he stay healthy though?
You got the best player and potentially added a ton of saves. Solid deal.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Tyler – I’d keep Wieters. Sooner or later the break out is coming.
Wieters currently has a 3 year low in his K rate. He’s also hitting a ton of liners, 23 percent, but not being rewarded with a .304 BABIP. If he keeps this up, that average will climb.
Lucroy can’t keep this up as story said.
Arencebia has a lot of power, but he k’s in a quarter of his at-bats and hits too many fly balls to produce a good average.
Avila has 29% K-rate, and he won’t keep up that .341 BABIP. Also not sure he keeps up the 18% HR/F rate.
You can go with any of the four really – they are all in the same group of options. For power go Arencebia, for all around, I’d still stick with Wieters.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Joel – Aramis— I keep writing about him. Everything is normal other than the HR-rate. It simply has to change after 7-years of nearly identical work. When the homers come back, his numbers look good. At this point, it would be tough to say Hunter is a better offensive option.
If you need the speed of Ellsbury, I’d say the deal looks solid.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
SF – That’s why I get paid the big bucks to run BaseballGuys.com.
Wait a second, I don’t get paid for this…
Don’t know what those people are talking about with Pedroia. He was great for TWO seasons.
2008: .326-17-83-118-20
2009: .296-15-72-115-20
That’s pretty much repeating it.
His foot isn’t right this year, but he’s still stealing bases (on pace for a career best). He’s walking more than every before, but he’s also striking out more than ever which is odd – he’s never been a big K guy. Maybe he’s hurt or maybe he just hasn’t gotten back into the grove after missing half of last year?
Choo has struggled a ton, but he’s still on pace for like 17 homers and 25 steals – and he has stunk so far. The real issue is hit hit rate. He’s always excelled there with a BAIP of .367, .370, .347 the past three year. This year it’s just .302. When you own a career mark of .354 as he does, the smart money would be on that number inching up as the year progresses.
Hard to deal either, you shouldn’t trade at a low point. I’d expect both to come around.
By Rob on May 27, 2011
Hi Ray,
Two guys:
1. Is Reimold worth a look or is this just a flash in the pan?
2. I have Hosmer at UTIL. He’s started to cool, what are the chances he doesn’t live up to the hype?
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Rob – Amazes me how quickly people dump strugglers and at the same time how much they want to believe in guys with hot starts.
Reimold hasn’t been the same player since he injured his Achilles a few years ago. He’s been in the minors, and at AAA this year he wasn’t anything other than average. I’m not going to say he won’t end up having value, he really only has to beat out Felix Pie, but I’m not interested in Nolan in a mixed league unless its 15 teams deep.
As I said all along, Hosmer is no more than 30/70 to live up to the billing this season. He’s young, barely has any experience at Triple-A, and really, he shouldn’t even be in the bigs yet. He WILL live up to the hype. However, if you thought that meant he would do it this season, you’ll likely need to readjust your expectations.
By Danny Tanner on May 27, 2011
Which side do you prefer?
Matt Holliday or Mike Stanton/Jason Heyward
It’s 12 team, H2H:
R,RBI,HR,AVG,OBP,SB,TB
Also, do you prefer Napoli over Iannetta?
By Carl Rispoli on May 27, 2011
Eric Young Jr…will he get enough playing time to be worth an add in a shallow league?
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Carl – See http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/27/around-the-horn-may-27-2011/ for my talk on Eric Young.
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Danny T – Holliday’s injury really throws this one up in the air right now. Of course, Heyward is hurt too. I’d play it safe and keep Holliday, unless your outfield is woefully thin on depth.
I’d say go with Napoli. It’s close. Iannetta has a .369 OBP, but I just worry that the Rockies will try to do something to his playing time cause he is hitting only .218.