Behind the Dish
May 26th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Buster Posey was creamed last night at the plate in a collision with Scott Cousins. Was it a dirty play? I don’t believe so, but that’s a discussion for another day. The issue at this point is what do you do if you own Posey because a report from Amy Guttierrez says that Buster Posey is in a cast (the team has already placed him on the DL with a broken leg, and unconfirmed reports are circulating that he also has injured ligaments in his leg)? Whatever the truth turns out to be, it’s pretty clear that in a best case scenario Posey is going to be out for the foreseeable future – at best.
This situation will send all Posey owners scrambling to the waiver-wire. Of the options available, who might you consider picking up? Here are some thoughts.
Ryan Doumit – .272-4-15-7-0 in 92 ABs
Who doesn’t wish that the Pirates would play him more frequently, even if it isn’t behind the dish. I mean, it’s not like Lyle Overbay is tearing it up at first base is it? He isn’t for those of you wonder as he’s hitting .235 with a .662 OPS. Doumit has flashed his power bat in May hitting .289/.351/.477. The best thing for him could be a deal to a team that would play him everyday. Until then, at a weak hitting position, he still is someone you need to consider.
Ryan Hanigan – .261-2-12-12-0 in 92 ABs
He isn’t close to an everyday option, not with Ramon Hernandez around (.327-6-15), but it might surprise you to learn that Hernandez only has 12 more at-bats than Hanigan. Why would I suggest adding a guy who is hitting .261 with a .359 SLG? Because there is no downside here. Hanigan never strikes out, in his career he’s walked more times than he’s whiffed, and that means there is virtually no chance that his average will fall below where it is right now (career .276). You could do a lot worse as a second catcher in mixed leagues, but he would be stretched as a starter if you only use one backstop.
Jonathan Lucroy – .321-5-22-15-0 in 112 ABs
The name everyone is interested in, and why wouldn’t you be given his work to this point? Be warned though. Unless your name is Joe Mauer or Mike Piazza, catchers don’t hit over .320. Second, though he looks to have a huge a power bat, Lucroy has a 48 percent ground ball rate that will keep the big flies in check. The only reason he has five bombs already is due to an unsustainable 17 percent HR/F rate. He’s probably already snatched up unless you are in a shallow league, but if he isn’t, give him a look – there’s likely to be plenty of production from this bat.
Miguel Olivo – .229-4-15-20-4 in 144 ABs
He’s not hitting very well, but what’s new if you are a Seattle Mariner? However, three things of note. (1) He has four steals, a huge boost at a position where guys don’t run. (2) He plays everyday. His total of 144 at-bats is 10th at the position (3) Each of the last five years he has hit at least 12 homers with 41 RBI. Those seem like mild totals but only he and Brian McCann can say that they have reached both totals each of the last five years.
Mike Napoli – .185-6-16-15-1 in 92 ABs
I blame this one on the Rangers. When Napoli was hot to start the year the Rangers just kept sitting him on the bench. Despite their thoughts, what I see is the seeds of success. Napoli currently has the best walk rate of his career, the lowest strikeout rate of his career, and his 18.2 HR/F ratio is a dead on match for his 18.1 percent career mark. One this hits start falling, his BABIP is .172, only .114 points below his career mark, he’ll return to being a power hitting star at the position… that is if the Rangers ever play him.
Wilson Ramos – .255-3-11-18-0 in 110 ABs
As great as he was in April (.358) he has been as bad in May (.158). He has value, but it may only be in certain spots right now. Consider these two points. (1) You only want to play him at home where he has hit .349 with a .990 OPS (his marks on the road are .194 and .605). (2) He has killed lefties (.323/.462/.484) while struggling badly against righties (.228/.284/.392).
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .240-4-15-11-0 in 100 ABs
Salty, and no, I’m not going to type out his name again, has been a blasting of late with four bombs and seven RBI in his last five games. Long thought of as a guy who could hit .250 with 20 homers, is he finally reaching his potential after years of false starts?
Kurt Suzuki – .252-4-13-17-1 in 155 ABs
I cant understand how, after three solid years, that this guy is on so many waiver-wires. He’s currently working on his best BB/K mark of 0.82 (career 0.61), and though his has a superb 22.5 percent line drive rate he has only been rewarded with a .261 BABIP that isn’t even the equal of his career rate of .276. I see lots of room for improvement here.
My rest of the way rankings of these catchers:
Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Jonathan Lucroy
Miguel Olivo
Ryan Doumit
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Wilson Ramos
Ryan Hanigan
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Buser Posey, Catchers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Miguel Olivo, Mike Napoli, Ryan Hanigan, Wilson Ramos
By Mevs on May 26, 2011
I have to admit Ray, I was hoping for some more appealing names. It is what it is, I guess.
By tourinct on May 26, 2011
Is Posey droppable at this point, or should I use up a DL slot?
By Mike on May 26, 2011
Good list Ray, but the million dollar question, I’m sure most readers would like to see answered, is: in which order would you rank these options? (And I would add Ramon Hernandez to the list…he’s on my waiver wire!)
By Mike on May 26, 2011
I agree with Mike… where is Ramon Hernandez to be considered in this list?
By Sanibel on May 26, 2011
Hey Ray.
Love your tweets and blog: Kudos! (Is the beard gone, by-the-way?)
I echo what Mike wrote: Could you *please* give us your own biased ranking? Cheerios!
By FP on May 26, 2011
Ray,
Picked up C. Ruiz for a #2C this week. Hanigan, Napoli and Olivo on wire. Stick with Ruiz who will get regular AB’s and is in a good offensive lineup, or swap him out for 1 of the 3 listed?
Thanks.
By Dennis on May 26, 2011
Hey Ray!
I’m one of the Posey posse too. Arencibia is available in my league and Soto was dropped when he went DL. Soto is a possible for activation this weekend. Where do you think of these two as compared to the options you listed? I would have to say HR’s are my primary goal for the position going forward. Napoli and Suzuki already rostered in my league.
Thanks!
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Mike – I dont know how a catcher who is hitting .327 with a .933 OPS is on waivers. How shallow is your league?
He doesn’t play everyday as you know from the Hanigan comment, and that dings his value. He’s the perfect catcher 2, but likely stretched as a first catcher.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Sanibel – Video to be posted shortly— the beard lives on, sort of.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
FP – Ruiz is a solid option. He won’t continue to limp along like this, and he has the ability to produce a really solid average. He has little power though.
I’d go Napoli, Ruiz, Olivo, Hannigan
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Dennis – If HRs are a priority, then Soto/Napoli are the top options at your disposal.
I’d sat you take a shot on Soto, cause like I wrote, the Rangers don’t seem to know what they’ve got in Napoli.
By Mike on May 26, 2011
Who do you like better – Salty or Hernandez?
By Dennis on May 26, 2011
Thanks as always!
By tourinct on May 26, 2011
Should I redo this:
Ray, I love your show on XM and column on Rotowire, hitting about .400 on Who am I?
Is Posey droppable at this point, or should I use up a DL slot?
Soto is on the waiver wire and maybe being activated Saturday. Currently have Roberts on the DL spot.
By Ray Flowers on May 26, 2011
Tourinct – Reports suggest its possible that Posey will return this season. Personally, I kinda doubt that. No need to rush him back and jeopardize his career.
If you have to make the call right now, keep roberts on the DL and add Soto at the expense of Posey – really don’t think we see him again this year.
By Mike on May 27, 2011
Re: How shallow is my league? 12 team H2H made up of FantasyBaseballCafe guys. Hernandez currently on waivers, perhaps because of playing time?
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Mike – Hernandez is on waivers because your league only starts one catcher. I thought those leagues were a thing of the past. I cant remember the last time I played in a league that started only one catcher, but apparently there are a ton of people that still play in such leagues.
By Tim on May 27, 2011
Hey Ray -
Two hitters and context:
Kelley Johnson starting to tear it up. Does this lend weight to the early season sickness explaination and does he put up similar #’s to last year ROTW?
Mark Reynolds stringing together some hits. Is Vlad showing him how to be a proper all-or-nothing hitter, can he hit .250 – .260 ROTW, and do you think the power improves as he gains confidence?
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Tim – KJ was never a good bet to repeat last years effort, just wasn’t going to happen. I do think he can be the player he was in 2007-08 the rest of the way. The average should be there, but I wouldn’t expect 26 HRs again.
Reynolds should be much better than he is, especially with a career low K-rate. However, he also has a career low BABIP, a career high ground ball rate, and a career worst HR/F ratio. I see no reason why he shouldn’t be able to return to the player he has been in the past, though I do think .250-260 is aiming to high.
By Mike on May 29, 2011
Should Posada be dropped for Napoli or Suzuki?
By Ray Flowers on May 29, 2011
Mike – At this point, with the options you have to turn to, I would not hesitate to drop Posada. He should turn things around, but we’ve been saying that for weeks now and he just hasn’t been able to do it.
By brad on May 29, 2011
i can trade batista and daniel murphy for holiday and weeks or weeks and justin upton do you think this is enough value. murphy is starting to hit and i dont know if it would be smart to mark either if these trades what are your thoughts i have rolen as my third baseman.
By Joel on May 29, 2011
Ray: a last waiver Q for the week in my h2h league: out of Craig (who now looks to be an everyday 2nd baseman?), Torres, Greg Dobbs and Willingham, which 2 would you take? Am I right in thinking Craig is the #1 pick out of these given his dual IF/OF eligibility and now regular playing time?
By Ray Flowers on May 29, 2011
Joel – Willingham has the power stroke. He can keep that up.
Dobbs has the avg. stroke going. He can’t keep that up.
Craig – Not a qualifier at 2B yet in most leagues. If he plays everyday worth a look, even without any elite skills.
Torres – Best all around skills though plays easiest position to fill – OF.
By Ray Flowers on May 29, 2011
Brad – Tough to deal for Holliday since he is hurt, but I’d still prefer him over Justin Up. Weeks over Daniel Murphy is a no brainer.
The question – do the deal?
I would. Murphy isn’t anywhere near the level of the other three. As great as Bautista is, just not getting much in player2 – he’s a great person to deal.
I’d do the deal.
By Otay on May 29, 2011
So I’m deciding between Domonic Brown, Kelly Johnson, Callaspo, Melky, and Alex Gordon. Which 1 would you bench for next week?
By Ray Flowers on May 29, 2011
Otay – Brown playing well since promotion. KJ finally hitting. Callaspo last 9 games only two rus, two RBI.
I’d sit Gordon. Over his last six games he has 10 Ks and plenty of 0-fer’s of late.