Around the Horn: May 27, 2011
May 27th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |(1) Russell Branyan to steal playing time from Mark Trumbo?
(2) J.P. Arencebia to see a playing time boost.
(3) Homer Bailey – out with a shoulder issue.
(4) Phil Humber could be removed from the White Sox rotation.
(5) Is Carl Crawford finally back?
(6) Rockies shake it up. Release Jose Lopez, call up Eric Young Jr.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Carl Crawford, Eric Young Jr., Homer Bailey, J.P. Arencebia, Jose Lopez, Mark Trumbo, Phil Humber, Russell Branyan
By Danny Tanner on May 27, 2011
Thanks Ray.. following up from my last post in the other entry:
Napoli or Arencebia?
By FP on May 27, 2011
ROS in a ML 10 team 5×5 roto…EY Jr. or the soon to be called up B. Lawrie?
By Chad on May 27, 2011
Ray- I have Pablo on the DL and have Figgins and Betemit as his replacement for 3B. Betemit doesn’t get everyday starts and Figgins is in a 2 year slump. Would Figgins be worth dropping for Headley?
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
FP – I’m going with the guy who is in the majors, and one who owns an elite skill in his speed – Young. Lawrie could easily outperform Young, but I usually go with the guy who is in the bigs. Bottom line though – I don’t see either as being worth rostering in a 10 team league.
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Chad – Figgins is the guy I would keep> I’d drop Betemit to pick up Headley. Figgins still has speed, and dual position elig. most likely, so I’m keeping that. If/when Moustakas is called up, playing time could get scarce for Betemit.
By Jim on May 27, 2011
Ray, Do you feel that Jason Bourgeois is worth a waiver pick? He’ll hopefully be healthy in a week or so, he was getting on base at a nice clip before he went down with the oblique issue, and of course he has the wheels. My steals are bad enough in a 15-team mixed league that I’m considering this (potential) late bloomer. Thanks and have a great Memorial Day weekend.
By Chris on May 27, 2011
Hey Ray,
I am ready to give up on Aubrey Huff and need to pick someone up to replace him. Who would be a better pick up Mitch Mooreland or Rajai Davis? Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Jim – In a 15 teamer, you can look his way. He was just starting to get some looks at 2B, which would greatly boost his fantasy value. Still, he’s not certain to get a look daily, so its a risk. If you feel you have to you can do it, but know PT is a risk, and he doesn’t bring much other than the speed.
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
Chris – Moreland is a place holder type, and there are concerns about him playing more than 80 percent of the time. Davis has struggled, but his speed is elite. He’s more likely to be a category difference maker for you.
By 8 Man on May 27, 2011
I am looking to make a move for some starting pitching… 14 Team. We keep 11 players. I am looking at the best value the rest of this year…. Rank my pursuit of pitchers… Marcum, Buchholtz, Beckett, Carpenter, Bumgarner, Lily, Matusz, Liriano, Anabil Sanchez, Arietta, Cueto, Danks, Depmster, McClennan. I know a little extensive, but those are my targets. Backham or Chris Perez, or both, come close to netting some of these. Appreciate the thoughts. Nice podcast, and just starting visiting this year.
By Ray Flowers on May 27, 2011
8 Man – Beckham was hurt tonight, so you’ll likely have a hard time moving him. Perez has a lot of value in a 14 team lg.
Here are the hurlers: Marcum, Beckett, Dempster, Carpenter, Buchholz, Anabil Sanchez, Danks, Lilly, Bumgarner, Matusz, Liriano, Arietta, Cueto, McClennan
By cameron on May 28, 2011
hey ray,
so i am proud to say i picked up michael morse the evening of may 22nd, and he has promptly homered in each of the last 4 games as you well know. obviously i know he isn’t going to keep up this ridiculous pace, or that OPS, but the power is still legit right? ROTW?
also, your thoughts on juan miranda now that branyan is out of town? dropped juan rivera to pick him up. been cycling through garbage WW designated hitters ever since my manny ramirez plan went south… rivera had been my best find so far as i picked him up right before his 9 game hitting streak started. i hate dropping a guy during a hitting streak but i figure with adam lind coming back sometime next week, his playing time will then start decreasing and i should jump on miranda right? your thoughts? thanks.
By Marty on May 28, 2011
Ray,
I’ve got Chipper holding down my final corner IF spot, and it looks like he in running out of gas. Do you like any of these options better?
Lee, Wallace, Freeman, Laporta, Dobbs, Belt, Headley, Encarnacion, Kotchman.
Thanks,
Marty
By Ray Flowers on May 28, 2011
Cameron – Mose clearly has 25-30 HR power. I don’t think he’ll get to that level this season since he started so slowly, but he clearly has the ability to be a consistent HR bat.
Miranda strikes out a ton, quarter of ABs, but he also has a decent walk rate. As for what we are seeing right now, would have to think that it’s the top of what he has to offer. I don’t think he’s anything other than an NL only option, not with so many star bats at 1B.
By Ray Flowers on May 28, 2011
Marty – Chipper ran out of gas a couple of years ago. He’s completely a place holder.
If you want to play the hot hand, go Kotchman. Obviously you know, he can’t keep this up.
I’m still a fan of Headley, though obviously his production hasn’t been there.
There isn’t a name here that sticks out. All are young, underperforming, or flawed.
By Steve on May 28, 2011
Ray
I can get Latos or Bedard for Huston Street. Who do you like? Also, Mike Morse or Ryan Roberts at Corner Infield spot?
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on May 28, 2011
Steve – Morse at corner spot. Hope that his recent power surge continues. Should get a lot of PT with LaRoche out.
Bedard is strong when healthy, but such an injury risk. I’d prefer the younger Latos over him.
Street, when healthy, is borderline elite. Without knowing your pitching staff it’s hard to know. If you can handle giving up the 30 saves from Street, and need and SP, I say get Latos, but be sure you can give up the saves – pens are all over the place this year, and he is one of the minority who have the role locked down.
By Steve on May 28, 2011
Good point. We only play 2 RP and I also have Perez and Kimbrell. Should I use one these for Latos instead of Street? Thanks
By Joel on May 28, 2011
Ray:
need an OF bat off waivers for my 6×6 h2h league. Craig or Torres? Leaning Craig, but how likley is it he continues to get regular playing time? THANKS!
By Ray Flowers on May 28, 2011
Joel – (1) Craig has nowhere to go but down in terms of performance. (2) When guys like Holliday return to health, tough to see how Craig plays as often as Torres, that is unless the Cards turn him into a second baseman. see – http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_982f2b12-896c-11e0-99da-0019bb30f31a.html
If you are picking up for two weeks, craig is fine. If you’re thinking ROTW, I’d lean toward Torres.
By Adam Laroche on May 28, 2011
Ray,
Who would you pick up to replace Posey? My options are: J.P. Arencibia or Jonathan Lucroy.
By Joel on May 28, 2011
one follow up: what about John Jay? Just saw he’s on the wire as well.
By Ray Flowers on May 28, 2011
Adam L – The video on this article gives my thoughts on Arencebia. This article for Lucroy – http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/26/behind-the-dish/
By Ray Flowers on May 28, 2011
Joel – Jay is likely to lose some time once Holliday is healthy. He hasn’t shown much SB speed, and his HR power is middling at best. His average has been solid, over .300 in his young career, but to this point its been a pretty shallow .309.
By Dave on May 28, 2011
Hi Ray, Looking for a SP in 12 team 6 x 6 league. how do you rate these…Dempster, Arrieta,C. Lewis, Zimmerman, Collmenter, Hammel, Norris. thanks !
By Ray Flowers on May 29, 2011
Dave – My recommendations for your pitching options.
Lewis, Zimmerman, Dempster, Norris, Hammel, Arrieta … Collmenter way down the list.
By wesley on May 30, 2011
Billy butler and j. Morneau are on waivers. Would u drop polanco or span for any of these guys. 10 team. Thanks ray
By Ray Flowers on May 30, 2011
Wesley – I still don’t trust Morneau, just not seeing anything from him.
Butler on the other hand is on fire. 6 of 10 games with two hits. His avg/obp are right there, just needs to start hitting the ball deep a bit more.
I’d keep both your guys though. If you can double them up in a deal that is ideal because they shouldn’t be let go for nothing.
By Ricky S on May 30, 2011
Wesley,
Look I know Ray is the expert here, and I do have a question of my own, but I have to disagree with him on his answer to you. Morneau is just starting to hit, and when he does figure it out again, he’s as good a hitter as any in baseball. When he says he’s “not seeing anything here”, he’s hitting .293 over his last 15 games. So you decide for yourself. As far as Billy Butler, why wouldn’t you drop Polanco for him. Except for runs, which may may not be a category in your league, Billy Butler should be as good or better in every other category. He hits in the middle of his lineup, which is good and getting better (when Moustakas and others arrive). He hits .300, and will undoubtedly hit more HR when its all over. I would drop both your guys for the two free agents.
By Ray Flowers on May 30, 2011
Ricky S – lively debate is good stuff. Morneau might be getting hot, but still, look at those numbers.
His current pace, over 150 games, would net him something like 7 homers, 55 RBI and 45 runs scored. I don’t care if he hits .293 the rest of the way, that’s simply dreadful production for anything other than a middle infielder.
Point two, JM is nowhere near “as good a hitter as any in baseball” as you suggest.
He is an elite run producer, but he has NEVER scored 100 runs and NEVER hit 35 homers.
He’s also hit under .275 in four of the past seven years.
Regardless, I need to see more than three weeks of a batting average before I’m ready to start counting on the Twins’ first sacker.
By Ricky S on May 30, 2011
Ray,
You say he’s never score 100 runs, and you are correct. He’s scored 97 twice and 84 once (in a shortened season of 135 games) since he hit his prime. Neither of which would leave an owner saying I wish he could score more runs. When I say “prime”, I am not counting his first 3 years in the league where he was getting acclimated. So in that five year span since, he’s scored 85 runs as his low total, and that seemed to be an anomaly. In the past five years combined, he’s hit a cumulative .298. He’s hit 30 HR three of those five years, and last year he was on well over a 30 home run pace for 162 games before getting hurt. RBI’s, as you mentioned, are as good as anyone. In fact, the year he didn’t hit 30 HR nor was on pace, he hit 23 and drove in 129 runs. So, if when healthy, you can expect .298, 30+ HR and an elite amount of RBI, is that not what Pujols does? Or at least close. This year Morneau has also been without Mauer to protect him for the most part, instead he has had Jason Kubel and others doing that honor. I think you are way way too low on Morneau, and now that he’s started to find that groove I would BUY LOW in a heartbeat. I’d make a friendly bet that he outperforms guys you have ranked over him including: Billy Butler, Mitch Moreland, Ike Davis, Adam Lind. Take your pick of guys you rank higher than Morneau at 1B, and I will take him over all of them.
By Ricky S on May 30, 2011
Let me clarify, guys Billy Butler and below I’d take him over at the very least. So #11 of 1Bs.
By Ray Flowers on May 30, 2011
Ricky S- Saying the Morneau is close to the level of Pujols just isn’t accurate. Consider.
1- Morneau’s career best 5×5 numbers: .321-34-130-97 (I’m not counting his .345 mark last year since didn’t get 502 PAs).
Pujols career best 5×5 numbers: .359-49-137-137.
Hell, his worst 5×5 numbers are .312-32-103-99
2- Per 162 games in their careers:
Morneau: .284-30-113-88-1
Pujols: .329-42-126-122-8
3- Pujols’ career worst in homers is 32. Morneau has been better than that once.
4- Pujols’ career worst average is .312. Morneau has been better than that once.
5 – Pujols’ career worst in OBP is .394. Morneau has never been better (min 502 PAs).
6- Pujols’ career worst in SLG is .561. Morneau has never been better (min 502 PAs).
7- Pujols’ career worst in OPS is .955. Morneau has never been better (min 502 PAs).
I could go on, but the point should be clear. They aren’t even close in terms of production, or consistency. Morneau is a fine player when healthy and at 100 percent, but this is like comparing Fred McGriff to Lou Gehrig.
By Ricky S on May 30, 2011
Ray,
I clearly agree that Pujols is better. The point I was trying to make is that when healthy, which he seems to be getting, he is a top 1B. Much better than you give him credit for. I’m in an AL only league and have been watching, and I’m starting to see the Morneau of old. I agree, with the injury he had, to temper expectations. I’m just saying I don’t think you should be surprised if from this point on, he’s in the top 7 or 8 of 1st basemen, and not far off from the elite few. You talk about upside on guys, and I just don’t know how you wouldn’t advise someone to drop Denard Span for Morneau. A guy who’s upside is .290 15/15 (span) as opposed to a former MVP.
By Ted on May 31, 2011
Ray,
Just to hop in the Morneau talk, I’ve had him all year and I don’t know what to do with him. How do you feel about Mark Trumbo? If you compare numbers this year Trumbo is doing pretty well for himself considering he has 10 homers and 27 RBIs but batting .247 while Morneau has 2 homers 17 RBIs and a .242 average. What do ya think??
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Ted – Problem with Trumbo is the addition of Branyan. He’s likely going to eat into Trumbo’s playing time.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-0527-angels-fyi-20110527,0,450510.story
By brad on May 31, 2011
ray
working on trade for batista will get A beltre and mcgehee(brewers) do you think this is enough value have rolen at third also just like mcgehee upside rest of year and beltre doing great
let me know as soon as you can sometimes you hesiate you loose.
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Brad – McG and Beltre is not enough to get for moving Bautista.
By brad on May 31, 2011
ok i thought beltre 10-42 good solid player and mcgehee upside i thought major rbi and run difference. but if you say so i held off on weeks holiday because i am worried holiday is not fully healthy but it seems you like that deal better also quintan and pagan were offered for batista. a lot of offers i just though holiday offer best but if quad acts up i loose big. need more balance on my team your calling shot let me know which trade you like or dont im counting on you hear you on xm daily.
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Brad – let me ask you. Why would you trade the best player in the fantasy game (Bautista) to get back guys ranked #s 43 (Beltre) and 363 (McGehee) on Yahoo?
You gotta aim much higher if you are moving the best guy in the game.
By Jan on Jun 2, 2011
Arencibia or Soto for rest of season?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 2, 2011
Jan – Here you go — http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/30/rotw-rankings-hitters/