Mailbag: May 31, 2011
May 31st, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Should I give up on Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Morneau and trade them for Kyle Lohse and Justin Masterson?
– @westcoastredsox
We keep waiting for Ubaldo to turn things around, but the wait continues to be an excruciating process. Jimenez is 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA this season, and he’s currently walking 5.33 batters per nine innings, more than a batter worse than his already poor career mark. You simply cannot have success walking that many guys. We keep hearing that his body is healthy, that his issues stem from a mechanical issue, but a look at the radar gun doesn’t lie – his average fastball velocity is down more than three mph this season from where it was the last two years (96 down to 93 mph). Jimenez is still getting his strikeouts, his 7.99 mark per nine is a mere tenth below his career rate, but clearly something just isn’t right. The most distressing news though might be that this isn’t a recent issue, it goes back a long while. Over his last 24 starts Ubaldo has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 ERA, a ghastly 4-12 record, and a terrible 1.92 K/BB ratio. Those aren’t the numbers of an ace they are numbers that would normally find you residing on the waiver-wire.
The optimist will say that since May 9th Morneau has hit .289 and he’s finally ready to emerge from his concussion induced slumber. However, the realist in me just can’t accept that. Even though he’s hit nearly .300 the past three weeks, his OBP in that time is .318 and his SLG a sickly .386. Simply put, he isn’t getting on base, and when he does hit the ball the results make him look more like Erick Aybar than an all-star caliber player. Cut the guy all the slack you want, but Morneau is on pace to hit .242 with six homers, 54 RBI and 38 runs scored. I find it hard to suggest to people that he is even worthy of a roster spot in standard 12 team leagues.
Lohse has been a bone of contention for me. There is no disputing that he has been spectacular this year going 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP. He’s also been amazingly consistent allowing more than two earned runs just once in his last 10 starts. Still, I have big time reservations. In more than a decade of work the guy owns a 4.66 ERA – more than double his current rate. I’m not talking about three months or two years, I’m talking more than 10 years of data (he’s never posted a season ERA better than 3.78, and it was his only year ever under 4.00). Lohse is also operating at a 6-year low in his K/9 rate (5.27), a fact that has only been offset by a career best 1.68 BB/9 mark (more than a batter below his 1.72 career rate). He’s also currently operating at one third of his career HR/9 mark of 1.10 at 0.34. Toss in three other salient factors. (1) His current BABIP is .230. He’s never had a mark better than .280 and owns a career rate of .302. (2) His current left on base percentage is 79.6 percent. His career rate is 70.1 percent. (3) He’s been under 120-innings pitched each of the last two years, and three times in the last five years he’s failed to reach 130-innings. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Lohse keeps this up, but it certainly seems like he is fighting against some extremely long odds.
Masterson has exceeded all expectations this season with a 3.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 11 starts. Though his K/9 rate is a career low at 6.26, he’s also cut his walk rate by more than half a batter from his career rate down to 3.19 per nine. He also continues to be the master of the ground ball with a 56 percent rate leading to a GB/FB ratio of better than two to one (2.05). A slight regression across the board seems likely, but there is little reason to panic that he will suddenly turn into Luke Hochevar.
If you need pitching depth you can make the deal since I’m just not sold that Morneau will return to his previous glory though know that you aren’t picking up two aces but merely two solid arms.
I need some offense. Should I drop Ted Lilly or Ryan Dempster for Mike Morse?
– @Sport_Fanatic
Lilly hasn’t been as good as expected this year for the Dodgers. At the same time, he has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts, is sporting a 1.29 WHIP and has a strong 3.42 K/BB ratio. There is growing concern about his velocity, it is down for the 4th straight year, which has likely been the primary culprit for the drastic drop in his strikeout rate that has seen the number fall to 5.83 per nine this year (he’s been at 6.84 or better in each of his 12 seasons). He has induced more grounders this season that at any point since 2005 to help mitigate the loss of punchouts, but his fantasy value currently sits on the precipice of irrelevance in a 12 team league until his punchouts come back. The question is, will they?
Dempster allowed 14 runs in two late April starts, but since then he has been very good. In May Dempster has posted a 3-1 record, a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP an a 7.82 K/9 mark, totals that line up very well with Ryan’s performance from 2008-10: 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.20 K/9 mark. As expected, his early season home run woes seem to have stabilized as he has allowed just two homers in his last six outings. Add it all up an, despite a 6.00 ERA, Dempster’s xFIP says hie ERA should be 3.45, a mark that would better his ERA the past two years (it would also be a career best in the xFIP category).
Morse was everyone’s darling after a spring that saw him annihilate pitching to the tune of a .364-9-18 line in just 21 games. Morse then started off the season on fire. Wait, he actually started as if the fire was put out when the games started to count as he hit .224 with one homer in April. Flash forward a month and it has all changed. Morse finds himself in the daily lineup now that Adam LaRoche is out dealing with shoulder woes. Morse has responded to the playing time by hitting .386 with six homers in the month. The truth is that he has been even better of late with a .385 average and five of those homers over the past two weeks. Morse has hit .289 with 22 homers and 63 RBI over his last 394 at-bats, and there is little reason to think he won’t be able to reach those totals this season.
Given Lilly’s advancing age and declining fastball velocity, I’d drop the lefty to add Morse and his white hot bat.
Is Jake Peavy back to being an “ace”? I’m talking skill wise, not injury risk wise.
– @Dmitch4
First off, I don’t think you can remove the injury risk with Peavy. We’re talking about a pitcher who has failed to throw 110-innings the last two years, and one that is coming back from a shoulder procedure that no other pitcher in big league history ever has. Injuries have been, and will continue to be, a major issue for Peavy, there’s simply no way to remove that from the equation.
Second, despite the outwardly positive results (3.24 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), his overall effort simply doesn’t match his previous levels. The easiest way to see this is to simply check out his K/9 rate. The owner of an 8.88 career mark, Peavy was at 8.60 or better each year from 2004-09. Last season that mark dipped to 7.82, and so far this year it’s caved all the way to 5.76. The only reason no one has noticed is that Peavy has walked one guy in four starts. Obviously that isn’t going to continue. He’s also cut his career HR/9 mark by 2/3, and that isn’t going to continue, especially in a home park that is home run friendly.
So to sum it up, no, Peavy is not back to being an “ace.” He’s certainly worth taking a risk on because as we’ve seen when he’s healthy he can be exceedingly effective (hello Erik Bedard), but I just can’t trust him given his track record the past few years.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Jake Peavy, Jsutin Morneau, Justin Masterson, Kyle Lohse, Mike Morse, MLB Mailbag, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Ubadlo Jimenez
By Rob on May 31, 2011
Hi Ray,
10 team, H2H points, mixed. An owner just dropped Dunn. I’d drop Ludwick @ UTIL. Good way to use my waiver spot?
I just read that he’s 0-38 against lefties this season. Can he turn this train around (and soon)?
Your ROTW rankings are very helpful – makes me feel better about Dunn. And, seeing that Ludwick isn’t even listed gives me the impression that I didn’t even need to ask this question…Dunn’s just a scary add right now.
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Rob – Funny thing, Ludwick was OF #61 – he just missed being on the list.
If you look at both guys right now, most would have to tell you to keep Ludwick. Still, I’m looking at history which says that Dunn didn’t/shouldn’t have just lost it. Clearly his season numbers are going to fall well short, but I’m still expecting the “real” Dunn to show himself at some point.
By Rob on May 31, 2011
So there’s nothing about Dunn and his game that you feel directly points to this season’s drop in production? All else being equal, he’s just in a funk? Albeit a HUGE funk?
Does he just need to get a taste of the power we all know (or hope) is there in order to jump-start his season?
By FP on May 31, 2011
Ray,
Carlos Pena is on WW in my 10 team 5×5 ML roto. I have have 6 OF’s (only 5 can start) and Grady is occupying a U position which could otherwise be occupied Pena. Over the balance of the season is C.Pena the better start over Grady due to home ballpark, League, fact Grady is not stealing and PT…or keep Grady? Thank you!
By Alan on May 31, 2011
I subscribed to the Bloomberg Front Office that you guys promote on the show. I looked at my trade analyzer today and one suggestion was Denard Span for Evan Longoria. The trade analysis said it was a GOOD TRADE (Balanced and Improves team). I’m in a points league and don’t know anyone in this league or any other league that would even accept this. What are your thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Alan – I would not do that deal. I’m a huge fan of Span, but that’s not a deal I would make.
Bloomberg Sports is our sponsor, and we are grateful for that. At the same time, just because they are does not mean that I always agree with their views. You know me, I’ve got my own take on everything.
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
FP – 10 team leagues are so shallow that you can always rotate guys off waivers since it’s super easy to find talent (remember, I’m used to doing 15 team leagues). More often than not, riding the hot hand in a 10 team league makes the most sense.
You dont need to keep 6 OFs, you can always find one on waivers. At the same time, I’d personally like to have a backup on my team at all times.
Pena will likely hit more homer and knock in more runs, but I’d be shocked if he had a better average.
If Sizemore stays healthy I’d be reluctant to let him go, but his health is a big question mark.
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Rob – I continue to talk about Dunn and tell people the same thing – everything he is doing right now doesn’t make any sense in the context of his last 7 years. Is this the “new” Dunn? I’m going to look at 7 years over two months of data to draw my conclusions. There is plenty going “wrong” for him right now, but I’m not even close to being ready to say that this is all he has left to offer at this point of his career.
By Brian on May 31, 2011
I am in a 12 h2h team mixed 6×5 league. I am in need some help. I saw P. Alvarez of Pit was dropped. Should I pick him up, I would drop either Pheralta or Izturis from LAA for him. I have Zimmerman on the Dl. What do you see him doing the ROTW. I enjoy your show daily on my way home each night. I am currently in 3rd place with a 5-2-1 record.
By Ray Flowers on May 31, 2011
Brian – Can’t drop Peralta for him. He’s been on fire.
Izturis is a nice bat, but he isn’t really a must start in 12 team leagues. I’d move on from him.
http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ROTW-HIT-May30-2011-BBGuys5.pdf
there are my rankings for the ROTW. I still have confidence in Alvarez.
Glad you like the show.
By Brian on Jun 1, 2011
Been offered Cargo, Cano, and Tabata for Bautista, Crawford, and Moreland. Should I do this deal? Does Cargo and Tabata make up for the potential steals that Crawford can give my team? Should I just be patient with Crawford?
By Rob on Jun 1, 2011
Hi Ray,
I’ve just proposed the following trade:
Giving: Napoli, LoMo, Ludwick, Cahill
Getting: Braun, Haren
The other guy had Posey, so he needs an impact catcher…hence the inclusion of Napoli. His entire team has been decimated by injuries.
It’s a 10 teamer so I can pick up solid replacements at C and OF. I guess I’m hoping the number of players blinds the other guy from the fact that he’d be giving up tier 1 talent and getting tier 2 or 3 talent in return.
Am I giving up too much or can I pat myself on the back if he accepts?
By Regina on Jun 1, 2011
Hi Ray, Do I start Marcum today at Cincinnati? I have him in 3 leagues: H2H categories, H2H points, and roto.
By Ricky S on Jun 1, 2011
Ray,
ROTW will you rank these hitters from most valuable to least?
Jason Heyward, Aaron Hill, Billy Butler, Mike Morse, and Coco Crisp.
Also, will you rank these closers ROTW:
Carlos Marmol, Matt Capps, Mark Melancon, Jordan Walden, and Fernando Salas.
Thanks as always.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Brian – Why do you need to be patient with Crawford? Didn’t you see that he hit .304 with 15 RBI and 19 runs in May?
I would not do this deal. Bautista is the #1 guy right now, and Crawford could still be a top-20 guy ROTW. Cargo, I’m not sold on, and as great as Cano is, his value doesnt match that of Bautista right now.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Rob – Cahill is so-so. Ludwick is so-so. LoMo, we may have already seen his best. Napoli is on fire right now.
Braun should be top-5 all year, and Haren is always top-15.
Being a 10 team league, there should be players out there to more than make up for what your dealing.
Do the deal.
By Brian on Jun 1, 2011
J. Danks dropped in my league. I know he has been very unfortunate this year. Add him 12 team mixed h2h. To add I would have to drop one. Who whould I drop to add him. Carp, Floyd, Baker, Sanchez (Giants),C. Lewis, Nolasco, Sheilds, Lowe, Bumgarner, Adams (SD). Thanks agian for answering my question. Picked up Alveraz and dumped Izturis.
BB
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Regina – I dont like making daily calls, say it all the time. But, if I had to decide, I would have Marcum active against the Reds.
By Mike on Jun 1, 2011
Where would you put Allen Craig on your ROTW rankings for 2nd Basemen? Should I give up on Beckham?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Ricky S – I’ll have my pitcher ranks out in a day or two. Marmol is at the head of that list despite his meltdown last night.
Tough to rank players who play different positions and display such different skills. Do you need MI help? Speed? Power?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Mike – Craig may or may not play everyday – Schumaker is still around. He has been really hot for sure, but he just doesn’t have any elite skills that make scouts drool.
All that said, at this point, I’d add him over Beckham who has looked lost for most of the year, and is now coming back from that eye injury.
By Mark on Jun 1, 2011
Would you do a Carl Crawford for Cliff Lee swap? My staff needs help (Lester, T Hudson, Jurrjens, Carpenter, McClellan, Garza, Lilly) and I’m not convinced Crawford has many weeks like last week in him.
12 team mixed Head to Head
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Mark – I believe Crawford is back to being an elite level performer. He’s no one week wonder.
However, if you feel like you need some pitching depth, then I have no problem with this move.
By Ricky S on Jun 1, 2011
Ray,
My middle infield is Kinsler, Alexei, and Dustin Pedroia in a 10 team league, so I definitely don’t need middle infield. I could use power more so than speed, but pretty much could use anything. With that being said, this is how I see these guys. Tell me if you disagree:
1. Jason Heyward
2. Billy Butler
3. Coco Crisp
4. Aaron Hill
5. Mike Morse
I have these 5 guys for 3 spots on the roster, and I’m wondering if I should trade 2 of them for an upgrade, and I just wanted to get your take on who I should trade.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Ricky S – If you dont need MI, then Hill isn’t very attractive. If you dont need speed that much, Crisp isn’t a great value to you either.
Yes, a great idea would be a 2 for 1 swap. If you were to move hill and crisp, I’d have to think you could get a nice return.
Might even be able to get more for the suddenly hot Morse, but his power bat might be needed on your club.
By david on Jun 1, 2011
ray. i’m in a 6×6 12 team mixed. 6th category is K’s for batters and losses for pitchers. each week two teams go head to head in all 12 categories, and whomever comes out ahead in each category gets a win. (what do you call that formant anyway?)
my two weakest categories are sb’s, k’s for hitters and K’s for pitchers.
and in general my pitching is just a little above avg, but my batting categories are a top the league.
i have these options…
#1 – Cano & masterson (or cahill or bucholz) for michael bourn and michael pineda. pineada is dealing, but i’m concerned if he’ll be pitching for our fantasy playoffs. i would slot zobrist or kelly johnson in at 2B.
#2 – Cano & masterson (or cahill or bucholz) for Elvis Andrus & Clayton Kershaw. I have fural at SS now. The other owner is on the fence about this one, so it may not materialize.
#3 Zobrist for eric bedard straight up.
thoughts? thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
David – (1) Agree with your concerns about Pineda. Tough to count on him late in the year.
(2) Cano/Cahill for Andrus/Kershaw.
This obvious helps you in steals, but it’s such a huge step down from Cano. You make up for it on the hill, but be sure you can handle the loss at 2B – it could be massive.
(3) Zobrist for Bedard might be a fair deal, but with Bedard’s track record of injury, its not a deal I would make.