The Prospect Trinity
June 1st, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Everyone loves rookies and the promise of being the first guy to claim the next future star. The chance to grab an all-star caliber player off of waivers is ever enticing despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of rookies fail each year to reach their promise.
I’m going to break down three youngsters that I get questions about literally every day. I expect all of these players to have long and productive careers. Will that happen starting this month? Your guess is as good as mine there, so I’d caution you to avoid dropping established major league players to take a shot on guys that have scant big league work under their belt.
Brett Lawrie: .354-15-49-51-11 with a .1092 OPS in 223 ABs
Competition: Edwin Encarnacion, John McDonald, Jayson Nix
The world got a scare last night when Lawrie was hit by a pitch on his left wrist. Reports suggest that he will be fine, though it remains unclear if this will preclude him from being promoted on Friday as the rumor mill suggests (that seems highly unlikely now).
A youngster with only 51 games of experience above Double-A, Lawrie is a mere 21 years old. Though he had a solid season in 2010 at Double-A (.285-8-63-90-30), it was but not an otherworldly effort. Still, he was ranked as the 28th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2011 campaign, the skills were just too impressive to ignore, and he’s done nothing to dissuade anyone from that opinion with his blazing start to this season.
The PCL, and Las Vegas in particular, is a hitters haven. At the same time, you can’t write off the production of Lawrie because of that. As a scout recently quipped, when Lawrie swings the bat it is with ill intent. He has power, doesn’t strike out too frequently (17.9 percent K-rate), and when he gets on base he knows how to swipe a bad. To put it bluntly, there isn’t much the guy can’t do on offense.
A second baseman, Lawrie’s been shifted to third because of the anemic production of the Blue Jays’ third baseman (at one point last week Nix, McDonald and Encarnacion went 0-for-45). With little to block him from taking on a full-time role, it shouldn’t be long before Lawrie is lashing liners for the Blue Jays.
Dustin Ackley: .292-7-26-43-6, .875 OPS in 219 ABs
Competition: Jack Wilson, Adam Kennedy
The Arizona Fall League MVP, Ackley can hit, the problem is his glove. Don’t blame Ackley for that. An outfielder and first baseman in college, Ackley was shifted to second base by the Mariners. Ask scouts and they’ll tell you that he can make the routine play but that his defensive game, especially his work around the bag, needs a lot of work. They don’t question that he will get there, but the fact is he currently isn’t really anything more than, at best, an adequate defensive player.
Ackley has moderate pop, scouts think he could be 20 homer bat in the big leagues, but over his last 720 at-bats in the minors he’s managed to go deep only 14 times. He also has solid skills on the bases where he should be able to steal some bases, though again his production in that respect has been moderate (10 steals last season, six this year). What he does do well is get in base and he’s currently sporting a solid .400 OBP at Triple-A.
Chone Figgins continues to be in the teams plans at third, but he’s hitting .190 which means a guy like Ackley could really be used at the top of the Mariners’ order. The club is getting nothing from Wilson (.555 OPS in 101 ABs), and Kennedy isn’t an answer either at second base. It would appear that Ackley’s role to the majors is only blocked by his glove at this point.
Desmond Jennings: .267-8-23-37-9 with a .837 OPS in 191 ABs
Competition: Sam Fuld
The next Carl Crawford – or so he has been billed – Jennings came into 2011 as the 22nd ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Jennings undoubtedly owns elite wheels, and dreams of 40+ steals at the big league level seem like a plausible outcome one day. However, his minor league track record has been as much about starts as it has stops as he has constantly been injured.
In 2006 Jennings stole 32 bases in just 56 games.
In 2007 Jennings stole 45 bases in just 99 games.
In 2008 Jennings stole five bases in just 24 games.
In 2009 Jennings stole 52 bases in 132 games.
In 2010 Jennings stole 37 bases in just 109 games.
While the steal totals are certainly impressive, did you notice that three of the years he failed to appear in 100 games? This year he’s been healthy appearing in 50 games, but where have the steals gone (he has just nine thefts)? It doesn’t matter how fast you are if you can’t stay on the field.
In nearly 500 minor league games Jennings has hit .295 with a .382 OBP showing that he isn’t too shabby with the bat in his hands. At the same time, he’s only gone deep 37 times, though eight of those long balls have come this season.
The Rays need an infusion of speed and excitement with their club, two roles that Jennings seems ideally suited for. Unfortunately the financial situation in Tampa is such that they needed to delay Jennings arrival to the big leagues until this month so they could delay the start of his arbitration clock. B.J. Upton and Matt Joyce seem locked into the outfield, and with Johnny Damon the DH, all that stands between Jennings and significant playing time, other than the ever present pall of injury, is Sam Fuld who has hit .157 with a .434 OPS in the month of May.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings, Dustin Ackley, Rookies
By Dennis on Jun 1, 2011
Hi Ray!
Closer question today – right now I have Putz, Valverde and Walden but Sergio Santos is on the wire. Walden looks to have more chances but Santos looks better. Think I should make the switch? 11 team roto, leading saves right now and want to stay at/near the top
Thanks as always,
Dennis
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Dennis – You can’t predict save chances. See – http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/29/where-do-saves-come-from/
Santos and Walden both have concerns, and it’s really a toss up who will be the better choice. As I start to put together my closer rankings, I have the duo separated by two places right now with Santos slightly ahead.
By Dennis on Jun 1, 2011
Actually I did read that before the season and it makes perfect sense. Just seems like the Angels are more likely to be in position to win which doesn’t mean saves. I think I might as well stick with the status quo, esp since I live in SoCal and can at least watch Walden regularly!
Thanks,
Dennis
By Tom on Jun 1, 2011
Great research on the closers, but it may be slightly flawed. You can single out closers and compare them to team totals. You need to look at total team opportunities vs team wins. The better the team, usually the more consistent the CL in terms of conversion rates and the opportunities they get out of all total team opps. The worst teams tends to have more committee approaches because of lack of talent to rely upon. Until recently, Joakim Soria was an exception given his talent vs KCR team talent over the past few years. So naturally if you only look at individual players, you won’t find correlations. If you look at totals, you do. The only problem is that with most so many teams, you are faced with committees or a potential revolving door.
By Tom on Jun 1, 2011
You can’t single out*
By jay on Jun 1, 2011
hey Ray, wondering if i could get your take on this trade offer. 12 team 5×5, 5 Of, 1 UT, aditional 1b/3b and 2b/ss spots, 5 keeper league. i was offered matt Holliday and Alez Gonzalez for jeter, werth and Anibal sanchez. i have hanram in the ss, rios/c. young/a. jones/c. lee/ and Luddy in Of spots right now. my other pitchers are cc/lince/lohse/masterson…im 3rd and i am 7/7/9/9/9 (runs/hrs/rbi/sb/avg). alot of info there but its a hard decision. he also has tabata or span i could prob get instead of gonz. any info would be great. i know how you feel about lohse and masterson so no need to comment on them, i read your site everyday.
jay
By Bob on Jun 1, 2011
What about Anthony Rizzo? He might be the best of the bunch!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Bob – Rizzo has been great in the minors, and his future is exceedingly bright. The smart money is on a Sept. call up.
Two things to keep in mind.
1- 1B might be the deepest position in the fantasy game.
2- Petco is murder on power hitters.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Jay – This just in — Holliday will go on the DL tomm. If you do the deal its tough right now, but in a keeper league like you have, I think you still have to do this.
Maybe you can get a 3rd player tossed in by telling the guy you are screwed for the next two weeks?
By jay on Jun 1, 2011
so you like the deal? i didnt think it was too bad…thanks for input and maybe i can ask for something little extra. so arent you doing the show right now? how do you pay attention to the calls and answer emails? multi tasker…i love it..
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Jay – I’m just that good buddy
I do the deal in a keeper league, just plan to cover your rear end for two weeks.
By bard on Jun 1, 2011
need your advise on trade
can have 2 of these 3 players
quintan pagan and mccain
for batista
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Bard – If you deal Bautista… the #1 guy right now, I’d expect more in return.
Pagan = no idea what to really expect.
Quentin = tons of power, but poor average, no steals, and injury history.
McCann = a stud.
Dont do it… I wouldn’t do it for all three – certainly not just two of them.
By Nick on Jun 1, 2011
Ray,
I want to move granderson for either a sp or 3b what should I be looking for. 14 team h2h mixed cat. thanks
By Brad on Jun 1, 2011
i have been offered pence and cliff lee for Batista I asked for cliff lee and votto which one do you like and are both fair value for Batista
By Ricky S on Jun 1, 2011
Ray,
I turned B. Butler, Morse, and Gio Gonzalez into Kevin Youkilis and Erik Bedard. My main focus was trading hitting depth for the better hitter so I can activate Josh Johnson or Heyward when they come back. Still have Aaron Hill on the bench. Like or dislike the trade?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Nick – I can answer your question about moving granderson cause I don’t know how anyone values him. I’d say this though — clearly he is a top-10 OF right now, so in theory, I’d be looking for a top-5 third baseman or a top-20 SP if I was going to deal him.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 1, 2011
Brad – Pence and Cliff Lee is a solid deal for Bautista. Votto + Lee is a really great deal.
Take Votto/Lee === you should love the results of that deal.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 2, 2011
Ricky S- I dont like the deal.
Butler/Morse/Gio Gonzalez for Youkilis/Bedard
Youkilis is the best hitter, but you gave up two guys on offense that are darn solid.
Gio and Bedard are basically the same pitcher, but the risk factor is like double with Bedard… who I dont really think will make it to 180 innings this year.
By Guertez on Jun 2, 2011
Ray, love your work, keep it up!
I’ve heard that Jennings might not be up till mid/late July because of his callup last year. His 6 year date was in mid May (as if he’d have been called up this year on Opening day for the first time) and adding two months puts you into July for his Super Two range.
What are your thoughts on this? Do you think Tampa can (or will) keep him down that long?
By Ernie on Jun 2, 2011
Ray,
I currently have Audrubal Cabrera SS and Matt Joyce OF as starters in my lineup. How do I value these guys and do I need to trade them quickly? If so, what do you think their worth if packaged or, should I just rock along? Yunel Escobar is on my bench. H2H mixed 10team.
Thanks man. -E
By brad on Jun 2, 2011
another offer for batista
Hamiliton and R Halliday or Lincicum
Let mer know your thoughts!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 2, 2011
Guertez – From a man I trust about all things Rays – Jason Collette.
http://dockoftherays.com/2011/02/05/2011-preview-desmond-jennings/
By Michael on Jun 2, 2011
Trade offer. I’d give up Kendrick for McCann.
Lost Posey to injury and have Suzuki and Soto holding down the catcher spot. Kinsler is my other 2B.
It’s a daily league. My gut tells me Suzuki and Soto will be fine and that I should roll with Kendrick and Kinsler at my 2B and Util spots (I also have Hosmer to sub in at the Util spot). Thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 2, 2011
Ernie – You can find my thoughts on how to look at them ROTW here – http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/30/rotw-rankings-hitters/
Your in a shallow 10 team league though, and that changes things a bit. There is less a need to be proactive with your decision making since no matter how long you wait there will always be solid options on waivers.
I’d look to move both now, to me this is their peak value.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 2, 2011
Brad – I’m glad you are interested in moving Bautista for peak value.
Hamilton/Halladay or Hamilton/Lincecum are both deals I would take.
I’d pull the trigger on the first one.
Moving forward, can you make sure you spell the guys names right? You’ve spelled well over 50 percent of the names you’ve sent incorretly over the past few days.
By Otay on Jun 2, 2011
would you trade Kubel for Morse? I’m in need of a 1B and have other great outfielders.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 2, 2011
Otay – With Kubel dealing with a sore foot (on DL), take a chance on the hot hitting Morse who qualifies at first base and outfield.