Pitcher Profiles
June 2nd, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Pitching is the name of the game, and you can never have too much of it. I thought I’d go around the league and take a look at a handful of pitchers that toed the rubber Wednesday night. Here are my thoughts.
Kyle Drabek: 3-4, 4.69 ERA, 45 Ks, 1.69 WHIP in 63.1 IP
The kid hit rock bottom Wednesday as he allowed four runs while getting only two outs. At this point it’s hard to trust him in an AL-only league, let alone a mixed league setup. The primary culprit has been a complete inability to throw the ball over the plate. Over his last 10 starts he’s walked less than three guys only one time, and six times he’s walked at least four batters. On the year his BB/9 rate is a ghastly 6.40. My goodness, he has two more walks than strikeouts on the campaign. The guy still has a bright future, but your a certified masochist if you’re continuing to roll him out there each start.
Daniel Hudson: 6-5, 4.22 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 79 IP
Hudson has won his last three decisions, and six of his last seven for the surging D’backs. Hudson has also thrown at least six innings each of the last eight times he’s taken the hill, and six of those outings have been “quality.” Unfortunately he has been beaten around his last two outings allowing nine earned runs in 13 innings. On the plus side he allowed only a single walk in those two outings. On the year he has a solid 7.63 K/9 mark, and his 3.53 K/BB ratio also portends a lot of success when his BABIP mark recedes (it’s currently .338). See if you can use his poor last two outings to snatch him away from his current owner.
Colby Lewis: 5-5, 3.48 ERA, 55 Ks, 1.15 WHIP in 75 IP
Three weeks ago in Buy or Sell – AL Version, I suggested buying Lewis. Since that time he has posted a 1.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 3.43 K/BB ratio in four starts, so after a rough start to the year Lewis has totally turned things around. He isn’t walking anyone, he’s only issued 10 walks in his last seven starts, and he has thrown a “quality” start up in six of his last seven outings. Moreover, dating back to the start of last season when he returned to the States from a stay in Japan, Lewis has thrown 276 innings posting a 1.18 WHIP, the 22nd best mark in baseball for a pitcher who has tossed at least 200-innings in that time.
Brett Myers: 2-4, 4.82 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.47 WHIP in 74.2 IP
Myers had a magical season last year. Not so much this year. His trademark consistency from last year has pretty much vanished. Oh he’s throwing his innings, at least six in all but two of his 11 starts (the other two times he fell an out short), but there has been no consistency in his performance. Well that might not be fair either. He’s been consistently below average of late allowing at least four earned runs in six of his last eight outings. It’s the same old story with Myers as the culprit has been the long ball. His current mark of 1.81 is preposterously high, more than double his 0.80 mark from last season and more than half a homer more than his career rate (1.29). You have to think the homer total will regress moving forward, but even so his xFIP which normalizes for homers is just 4.24. Be wary.
Brian Matusz: 0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3 Ks, 0.71 WHIP in 5.2 IP
Matusz made his long awaited 2011 debut Wednesday night after being sidelined the first two months of the year because of an intercostal strain. Everyone is jazzed about the young lefty after his impressive second half last year that included a 7-3 record, 3.63 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He could certainly replicate those numbers this season, but remember he is coming off injury, is young, and pitches in a wicked tough division – the AL East.
Javier Vazquez: 3-4, 6.02 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.54 WHIP in 58.1 IP
Vazquez has been awful for most of the season. However, he seems to have somewhat turned the corner. On May 15th, in his darkest hour, Vazquez owned a 7.55 ERA and seemed destined to lose his starting role with the Marlins. Since that time he’s made three starts, lasted at least six innings each time out, and posted an ERA of 2.84 with a WHIP of 0.79. Moreover, he’s whiffed 15 while issuing only three free passes. Problem solved eh? It’s far too early to say that, but given his track record of success, and we’re talking about more than a decades worth, perhaps this wily veteran should be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his recent work – maybe he has it in him to once again be a useful pitcher.
And one rookie who didn’t pitch Wednesday…
Jordan Lyles: 0-0, 2.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.71 WHIP in seven IP
The Astros top pitching prospect and #42 overall prospect according to Baseball America, Jordan had a strong first outing, a great effort actually for a guy who can’t even legally pull back on a bottle of Captain Morgan (and who doesn’t want to do that on a daily basis?). At the same time, it would be wise to keep expectations in check. Lyles is only 20 years old and has only 16 games of experience at Triple-A where he posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He knows how to pitch, and likely will have a long and successful career, but Lyles just doesn’t profile as a top of the rotation fantasy arm.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Brain Matusz, Brett Myers, Colby Lewis, Daniel Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Jordan Lyles, Kyle Drabek
By MLuna on Jun 2, 2011
Ray–Would you trade Garza (or D Hudson) and Axford for Halladay?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 2, 2011
MLuna – Halladay for Garza/Axford is a fair deal provided you have RPs that you can count on.
Halladay is the most consistent arm going, can’t really lose adding him.
By FP on Jun 3, 2011
Ray,
Please give me your thoughts on my pitching staff. 10 team 5×5 roto. After a debacle of a draft I lag in Pitching Cat points. I now have SP of Lincecum, Lester, Shields, D. Hudson and A. Sanchez. RP of Soria, Salas, Walden and Storen. I am moving up in W’s (5th), K’s (5th) and S’s (6th) but still in dead last on WHIP and ERA due to blow ups with prior SP and RP. In your opinion, with 1/3 of the season gone do I stick with my guys and just let them do their thing, or am I one SP short of making a more dramatic impact? Reason I ask is that both J. Masterson and B. Morrow, M. Bumgarner are on WW and I could, if needed, drop from Furcal, Torii or I Desmond to pick one of them up. Your thoughts? Thank you sir!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 3, 2011
FP – You have two aces in Lester/Lincecum. Shields is a strong #3, Hudson a solid #4 and Sanchez a great #5.
Your pen has four solid arms, though I dont get the warm and fuzzies. Still, I’d expect Soria to get his job back, so this situation should end up being fine.
In a 10 tm lg, hard to hold on to Soria if you are looking to improve your ratios. RPs dont pitch enough innings.
Morrow has HUGE arm and should be rostered. Problem is, his ratios may not be strong.
Masteron is pitching as well as he can right now, and things will probably get slightly worse as we move forward.
I’d add MadBum. He’s pitched very well since a slow start, is young, in a great park too.
By Bryon on Jun 3, 2011
Hey Ray,
What are your thoughts on Juan Nicasio and Dillon Gee? Are any of the following pitchers worth dropping to take a chance on these guys: Josh Outman, Scott Baker, Gio Gonzalez, Jonathan Sanchez.
thanks!
By FP on Jun 3, 2011
Ray,
Drop Furcal or T. Hunter to pick up MadBum?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 3, 2011
FP – Depends on your squad. Do you have another SS you can count on? Do you have OF depth?
By FP on Jun 3, 2011
I have Desmond also at SS(who has inexplibably stopped stealing bases) and I have 6 OF (5 start in OF and 1 at U)of Hunter, Stanton, Sizemore, Choo, A. Torres and Morse. Also picked up B. Lawrie to replace Furcal at MI thinking perhaps he could make up the production lost.
By Mark from Chicago on Jun 3, 2011
Ray, I’m in a 10 team mixed roto league, non-keeper, and am mired in 6th place with Adam Dunn, Rios, and Crawford dragging me down..I recently pulled off this 8 player trade, banking on buying low…let me know if I did the right thing please…
Traded: Carl Crawford, Russell Martin, Ben Zobrist and Tim Hudson
Received: Andre Ethier, Carlos Santana, Dan Uggla, and Ubaldo Jimenez
Love your content and XM/Sirius stuff too.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 3, 2011
FP – Desmond is NOT a 40+ SB threat. He’s already one off his mark of 17 from last season. Plus, you can’t steal bases if you don’t get on base (his current OBP is HORRIBLE – .264).
To add MadBum I’d drop Furcal. It’s a risk though. Ideally I’d trade Desmond to someone and start Furcal. Since you start 5 OFs you really should have one on the bench.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 3, 2011
Mark from Chi Town – Glad you enjoy the show, and the site.
I HATE deals that are this big. Too many parts. Can understand it though, especially in a shallow league where you can always swtich things up.
I’d rather have Crawford.
I’d rather have Santana.
I’d rather have Zobrist.
I think the pitchers are pretty close (Hudson safer, Ubaldo more to give).
By Erik from Michigan on Jun 6, 2011
Best Fantasy Radio Show on the dial! Ray, would you safely say that hitting is at more of a premium than pitching is right now? In deeper leagues especially, there always seems to be pitching that can be added via streaming or otherwise, yet the hitting pool is more like a cess pool with part-time utility players/4th OF’s dotting the waiver wire. So, if this is the case, would you say the team acquiring the hitting should theoretically be asked to give up more?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 6, 2011
Erik from MI – Thanks for the props buddy.
Yes, at this point I’d say hitting is at more of a premium for sure as the numbers on offense just keep dropping.
I’d also say that hitters are slightly more stable than pitchers, and less likely to suffer a season ending injury.
Your premise is solid, but in the real world the results might have to be different.
By jb (not JB) on Jun 9, 2011
Hi Ray, What kind of innings limit will be put on Jeremy Hellickson if any?
thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jun 9, 2011
jb – The Rays always have a plan with their starters. Here are the first year totals for Rays arms.
Davis- 168
Garza – 184.2
Niemann – 180.2
Sonnanstine – 120.2
Price – 128.1
Shields – 124.2
I’d have to think that Hellickson will be limited to about 180 innings if I had to guess, but I haven’t read that is a hard and fast rule.