Mailbag: June 7, 2011
June 7th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Am I crazy to Consider dropping Adam Dunn for Anthony Rizzo? Dunn is killing me.
– @Dorman06
Allow me to be stupid for a moment.
For each of the past seven years Adam Dunn has hit 38 homers with 92 RBI. How many such seasons has Anthony Rizzo ever had? Obviously the answer is zero. In fact, Rizzo’s minor league high for homers is 25.
Dunn has been beyond horrible hitting even worse than teammate Alex Rios at .176 with five homers through 188 at-bats causing people to flee like he has the bubonic plague, so let me ask you – do you really think that a guy who is 31 years old just lost “it” overnight? My point is that his own history, as well as common sense, should be telling you that at some point the light will click on and he will return to being the power bat he always has. The question is, will that occur in time for him to be a more productive bat than Rizzo in 2011?
Rizzo is a luminous prospect who is just killing it in Triple-A this season hitting .365 with 16 homers and 63 RBI through a mere 52 games. The Padres have started to use Brad Hawpe in the outfield with the expectation that Rizzo will take over at first base at some point in the very near future (perhaps this week). However, there are some real concerns that should be voiced here.
(1) For every Eric Hosmer who just shows up hitting, there are twenty Justin Smoak’s who take a while to figure it out. The transition from the minors to the majors is a massive step, and not all youngsters are capable of making the needed adjustments right off the bat.
(2) The Padres have the worst batting average (.231), the lowest OBP (.300), the worst SLG (.335) and the fewest runs scored (231) in the National League. That sure doesn’t sound like there is a great supporting cast awaiting Rizzo in San Diego, does it?
(3) Petco Park is murder on power hitters. The last three years, according to Park Indices, Petco is the worst park in the National League for home runs (22 percent below the league average). It’s even more dreadful when it comes to left-handed power hitters. Oh it’s still dead last in the NL, but for lefties the Park Indices mark is 59 or 41 percent below the league average. There isn’t a harder park in baseball for a left-handed power hitter, and its just not power that Petco saps. Over the past three years the yard is also last in the NL in average, doubles, and runs scored. It’s a brutal hitting environment.
So what would I do? As great as Rizzo has been this season down on the farm, and as poorly as Dunn has performed in his first year with the White Sox, I’m still going to suggest staying with Dunn. I keep coming back to the obvious fact, and that is that Rizzo doesn’t have a single at-bat in the majors while Dunn is still working on a steak of 7-straight seasons of 38 homers and 92 RBI, the second longest streak in the history of the game (the record of nine is held by Rafael Palmeiro, while Babe Ruth is tied with Dunn at seven). Rizzo could easily be an all-star one day, but for now, I’m going with the proven commodity, even if he is struggling right now.
I’m curious why you have Jaime Garcia out of the Top-50 in your ROTW pitcher rankings?
– Mike
For those of you wondering what Mike is talking about, I released my Rest of the Way rankings recently, and I listed Garcia at 51st amongst starting pitchers (for the entire list you can read ROTW Rankings: Pitchers. There is also a link in that piece to my ROTW rankings for hitters). So we are all clear, by ROTW rankings I mean from here on only, i.e. I’m not counting numbers that have been posted to this point of the season.
So why am I so “down” on Garcia? Some thoughts.
(1) Even at #51 overall, if we are talking about a 12-team mixed league, I’m saying Garcia will have a shot to a #4 starting pitcher in the fantasy game the rest of the way, so I’m not really that down on him.
(2) Garcia’s never thrown 175 innings in a season. Garcia has had multiple issues with his arm, and with it being so valuable, there are more than a couple of reasons that the Cardinals could limit him to 180-190 innings this season after keeping him to 163.1 innings last season. Such a decision would obviously curtail Garcia’s value, that is if he can stay healthy.
(3) Garcia has upped his K/9 mark from 7.27 last year to 8.33 while seeing his walk rate per nine dip from 3.53 to 2.11. It’s tough to believe he will be able to keep his K/9 rate a batter above last season while also keeping his walked rate a batter and a half below his ’10 mark. Pitchers just don’t make jumps like that in both categories from one year to the next.
(4) A first rate ground ball pitcher, Garcia’s GB-rate has regressed slightly from 56 percent to 53 percent. It’s still a superb mark, and perhaps the level will raise the rest of the season, but it should be monitored, especially when we consider that his fly ball rate is up five percent from 26 to 31 percent.
Garcia’s taking his whole game to the next level. Can he stay there? That is certainly possible. But his numbers were already strong last year before this season’s growth, and when you add in his career long durability issues I’m just leery that the rest of the season will match his hot start.
Brent Lillibridge continues to see PT. Is he worth a bench spot in a 14-team mixer?
– @baseballjunkie
With Alex Rios continuing to hit like a 5th outfielder just hoping to hold on to a big league roster spot (.199/.253/.301), Lillibridge has been getting a look in the outfield for the White Sox.
Let’s keep things in perspective here. Lillibridge had three homers in 273 at-bats entering the year, so his total of seven in 77 at-bats sure seems like an outlier. This is confirmed by looking at his minor league numbers which included one homer every 47.7 at-bats (currently that mark is one every 11). Coming into this season Lillibridge had hit .194 with a .551 OPS as a big leaguer. His average is up about .100 points to .286 this season and his OPS has nearly doubled (1.008). During nearly 2,000 minor league at-bats he has hit .268 with a .758 OPS, so obviously his current level of production seems ridiculous. Lillibridge can steal bases, and with a full season of work 20 steals, his current pace, does seem like a pace he can keep up. Still, other than the steals, there seems to be no way that Lillibridge would be capable of sustaining his current level of production.
Do you add him in a 14 team league? You can if you need a pick me up, especially since he qualifies at second and the outfield, but realize nothing the previous three years in the bigs, or his six seasons in the minors, supports the bat that he is swinging right now.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Tags: Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Anthony Rizzo, Brent Lillibridge, Jaime Garcia, Petco Park
By Ricky S on Jun 7, 2011
Ray,
Would you trade Youkilis/Carlos Gonzalez for Adrian Gonzalez/Logan Morrison. In my opinion, Adrian Gonzalez is the best hitter in baseball. Yes, THE BEST, especially in Boston. If that’s too much to give up for Adrian, would you do it with Granderson or Choo instead of Carlos Gonzalez? Thanks.
P.S. I’m finally ready to say “you’re right” about Justin Morneau. With his newest neck injury, I have officially given up on his 2011 season. Good thing I traded him earlier. Nice work as always!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Ricky S – Let me say it like this. Let’s grade each guy in terms of his fantasy value ROTW for 2011.
Adrian Gonzalez = A
Kevin Youkilis = A-
Carlos Gonzalez = B+
LoMo = C+
That’s the issue for you. LoMo is not a .300-25 guy, not yet at least. He’s the only one of this group who doesn’t belong. Personally, I don’t think AGone is good enough to allow you to do this deal.
Take a look at my rankings for outfielders… it will answer your question – http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ROTW-HIT-May30-2011-BBGuys5.pdf
By Alan on Jun 7, 2011
Ray,
I have Hanley Ramirez on the DL in my 10 team Points league. Right now I have D. Barney in my SS position. Should I stick with Barney for now or drop him and pick up someone else on waivers like : Casilla, Bartlett, Theriot, A. Gonzalez, Cabrera, Hardy?
By the way, I love the Drive with you, Kay and Kyle but don’t always get to catch it. Do you have podcasts of the show somewhere to download?
By Frankie S. on Jun 7, 2011
Hey Ray,
1st timer here. I’m in a 14 team mixed league H2H but with categories instead of total points.
Runs RBI HR OPS SB AVG
Wins Saves Holds ERA WHIP K’s
Should I drop any of these players for Anthony Rizzo?
Domonic Brown
Allen Craig
Danny Espinosa
Justin Turner
Zack Britton
Volquez
Homer Bailey
I currently have youk/dunn/beltre at the corner positions.
By BVtime on Jun 7, 2011
I am looking to at least fill in for Dunn for a while. I picked up Mike Morse. But I could get Gaby Sanchez and Morrow for Ortiz (who is not 1B elig) and Chacin. Worth it?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Alan – Barney is nothing but a place holder in a 10 team lg. – like 600th best guy past three weeks.
Theriot has like a 19 game hitting streak.
Casilla .395 with 5 SBs last two weeks.
You can make the switch to either, or stand pat. All are just blah options.
Glad you love THE DRIVE. Unfortunately, there is no way to hear the show unless you listen live. Sirius doesn’t make them available in any form other than over the air waves.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Frankie S – Thanks for joining the site, glad to have you stop by.
You read my thoughts on Rizzo above. I could see dropping a couple of your guys since you are in a 14 tm league, but you really don’t have a need. Youkilis plays both 1B/3B, so you have coverage there. If I was gonna drop one it would be bailey since he is hurt and Volquez is back in action or you could also let Craig go since I dont think he plays ever day.
By Frankie S. on Jun 7, 2011
I have matt harrison too, forgot to mention that. Would you drop harrison or bailey for him?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
BVT – Morse is on fire right now, no reason not to roll with him. He’s on fire right now.
As for the deal, I’d do it. Ortiz not playing a position is a big deal. Go get Sanchez/Morrow.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Frankie S – Keep Bailey and dump Harrison to get Rizzo. Good deal.
By Ricky S on Jun 7, 2011
I’m thinking of trading Aramis Ramirez for Eric Hosmer. I know you’re a Ramirez believer but I’m in 1st place and would like some production now. Also, the Cubs are horrendous (I’m a Cubs fan, I see it first hand everyday). I just picked up Rizzo though. Would you roll with the Rizzo/Aramis duo to fill your corner infield spot or make the Aramis trade for Hosmer? Weekly 10 Tm 5×5 head to head.
By Matt on Jun 7, 2011
Ray,I have my pitchers Arrieta and Hellickson battling against each other this week. The rookie is on fire, so should I sit arrieta or play them both? Whats your opinion?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Ricky S – In a 10 team lg, neither Rizzo or Hosmer is a 1B option. Honestly, even as a CI option, neither is really exciting ROTW.
I certainly wouldn’t be counting on Rizzo – like the above article suggested.
Ramirez should be fine at CI.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Matt – Both rookies are decent options. I don’t bench guys simply because they are facing each other. Only category that is effected is the win category. If you would normally pitch them both, you can again. You have to start Hellickson who was pitcher of the month in May. Arrieta has walked eight guys with four Ks and seven runs allowed over his last two starts. Even in a good matchup, he’s questionable right now.
By Mark Q on Jun 7, 2011
I have too many players on the DL! Besides Holliday I own Hanley & Wright. I’m subbing Peralta now at 3B, but am in need of a SS (or a 3B and move Peralta to SS).
Options: existing trade offer of Rollins for Peralta. (The owner also has Asdrubal Cabrera & Prado).
FAs- Ryan Roberts, Justin Turner, Ryan Theriot, Alexi Casilla.
Can you suggest a move?
I have other players to drop (Brett Anderson, Max S.)
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Mark Q – Don’t do the deal for Rollins (knee). He might end up on the DL and you don’t need another guy with health issues.
Casilla is the one to pick up if you are looking short term. Last two weeks .396 with 5 SBs.
Can’t drop Scherzer.
Wait to drop Anderson until we get the report on his arm. He might just miss a couple of starts.
By Matt on Jun 7, 2011
Ray, I’m thinking about dropping Ludwick for Lind do you think thats a good move?
By Ty on Jun 7, 2011
Hey Ray,
I asked you before about a guy who could steal some bases. You mentioned Eric Young (EYJ) would he be better over Alexi Casilla?
I’ve also got a SP i could add…would Humber or Collmenter be worth an add at this point? I’d be looking to drop Travis Wood or Derek Lowe. Thanks for all your help
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Matt – Yes, I think dropping Ludwick for Lind is a good move. With Rizzo coming up and Hawpe shifting to the outfield, and the pending return of Maybin, Ludwick could lose some at-bats. Plus, he plays in death valley anyway, so I’d go with Lind.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Ty – EYJ is a better steals bet if he plays regularly. Casilla has a lot of speed, but he’s struggled to swipe bags at the big league level.
I broke down Collmenter here – http://www.rotoinfo.com/blog/fantasy-baseball-2011-around-the-diamond-2.html
No reason to add him.
Humber also has poorer skills than either Lowe or Wood. Here
By Matt on Jun 7, 2011
Ray, Lind was already picked up what do u think about picking up Boesch for Ludwick? They are both close in stats I had Boesch before and I can’t tell if he’s reliable, he was hot in April, not in May and getting hot in June so what do you think about this?
By Johhny T on Jun 7, 2011
Hey Ray, would u drop Britton or Tomlin for Carrasco or Floyd? I had blogged with u a while back that Tomlin was my boy, but now I am not so sure.
-Big Dawgs
By Ray Flowers on Jun 7, 2011
Johnny T – like I’ve been saying all along, Tomlin had zero percent chance of being able to keep up his hot start. Over his last three starts 16 ERA in 18 IP to move ERA from 2.41 to 3.71. That WHIP of his is going way up from where it is now as well. I’d immediately drop him for Floyd… though it would have been nice if you’d taken advantage and sold that hot start to the highest bidder.
By Ty on Jun 7, 2011
Thanks Ray! Always like your help
By Fenz on Jun 8, 2011
Ray, I’m in need of one more quality starter. I am looking at acquiring either Ubaldo or Carpenter and giving up Starlin Castro (have Reyes) and Smoak (have A-Gonz, Paulie the K and Rizzo in waiting). Thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 8, 2011
Matt – Make sure you read the comments section each day. I just broke down Boesch.
The Tigers are interesting. They have too many OFs. Jackson plays everyday, and Ordonez figures to do the same when he returns to the fold (soon). You’ve also got Wells, Boesch, Dirks and maybe Raburn as well. Lots of mouths to feed.
Even with his huge night, Boesch is still barely better than league average in the slash line (.278/.338/.449), and don’t overlook that he was below average before last night (.260/.324/.401).
He also doesn’t hit righties that well with a .241/.301/.398 slash line in 507 ABs. If you can’t hit righties, it’s tough to play everyday.
He’s a 5th OF type in mixed leagues.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 8, 2011
Fenz – Castro/Smoak should be enough to get Carpenter who has struggled at times, but pitched better than it looks. I’d try Castro first… you may not have to add Smoak.
Ubaldo has pitched much better of late, and after last night, you’ll likely find it more difficult to add him.
By Frankie S. on Jun 9, 2011
Hey Ray,
What do you think about me trading Youkilis for Jurrjens? Can Jurrjens really keep it up like this all year?
I’m in a H2H with categories instead of points
Runs, RBI, OPS, SB, HR, AVG
Wins Saves Holds K’s ERA WHIP
My Starters: Gallardo Romero AJ Burnett Volquez Homer Bailey Garza Zack Britton Hellickson
My Corner Infielders: Youkilis Dunn Beltre Rizzo
By Ray Flowers on Jun 9, 2011
Frankie S – Horrible deal for you to make. Jurrjens has no shot to keep this up. See – http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/25/how-is-this-happening/
Youkilis is still an elite level bat that qualifies at both corner spots.
By Frankie S. on Jun 9, 2011
Yeah that’s what I figured. In rejected Youkilis for Jurrigens. He just countered with Youkilis for Tommy Hanson. Still not worth it right?
By brad on Jun 9, 2011
Didnt wait to hear your opinion on this trade
Traded Batista G Jones and Tejada for
Lind Rasmas and Raja davis
what do you think can make move in sb and thought it was good value to reload my lineup im good on power with ortiz konerko N Cruz weeks
as i
I said 15 team mixed had holes in lineup will need to find 3rd baseman though Let me know your thoughts now
By Matt on Jun 9, 2011
Ray, do u think it would be a fair trade if I trade garcia for c.j. wilson? I need some more K’s.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 9, 2011
Frankie S – I value hitters more highly than pitchers. I would therefore turn down Hanson for Youkilis, but that is a MUCH better deal than the offer of jurrjens. If you need pitching, and have CI depth, it wouldn’t be an awful deal to make.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 9, 2011
Brad – Tejada is totally useless and likely to lose his job – http://www.rotoinfo.com/blog/the-wins-keep-coming.html
Jones is nothing more than replacement level. Bautista is aces.
Lind on fire but he’s clearly not going to keep this up. Rasmus has major talent. Davis is a difference maker with his wheels.
I don’t love the idea of trading Bautista and not getting back a top-10 player, but you clearly brought in a ton of talent for what you gave up.
By Craig N on Jun 9, 2011
Nl only 5×5 …. Well rounded offense getting Zimmerman back…..I need runs, but only getting 7 pts total in k’s and w’s….would you trade B Phillips and W Lopez for I Desmond J Karstens and Arroyo…..staff would then be Capuano Dickey Kennedy Hudson Karstens Arroyo Kimbrel Lindstrom Marshall and I’d cut Romo to make room for additional pitcher…
Ps did Kimbrel just lose his closer gig tonight?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 9, 2011
Craig N – Karstens is doing this with a deal with the devil. He’s not a good bet long term. Arroyo should rebound a bit,. but he’s more an innings filler than a difference maker. Desmond is never going to match the productivity of Phillips – and Phillips is the only elite level player in this deal. Lopez is a decent arm, but nothing special with Lyon back pushing him lower in the pecking order.
I’d turn the deal down.
I don’t think Kimbrel lost his job… he had pitched the last two days so that’s likely why Venters was called on, but I’m not certain Venters may not get a shot at some 9th inning work.
By Frankie S. on Jun 10, 2011
Hey Ray,
Just wanted to see what your opinion was in regards to the Mets Justin Turner? Currently I have three 2B: Danny Espinosa, Allen Craig, and Justin Turner.
I was thinking of dropping one of these three and picking up Mike Moustakas? Is this a good idea? How would you rank these 3 2B and who would you cut loose if any?
Scoring Categories H2H 14 team league (not total points but categories)
Runs RBI AVG SB OPS HR
By Frankie S. on Jun 10, 2011
I’m just going to list my whole offense, so you have a better picture. Should I make a move for Moustakas and drop a 2B or should I maybe drop someone else. Thanks Ray!
C Iannetta
1B Youkilis/ Rizzo/ Dunn
2B Craig/Espinosa/Turner
3B Beltre
SS Starlin Castro
OF Holliday
Stanton
Ethier
Bourn
Dominic Brown
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Frankie S – I’d add Moustakas. I’d drop Turner to add him.
By Ryan on Jun 10, 2011
Ray, you said you valued hitter over pitchers. If that’s the case would you trade Shields for Eithier? I smell a sell high on Shields. Im in a H2H mixer, 12 Team.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Ryan – I would trade Shields for Ethier. I think it’s a fair deal for both sides, but as you stated in a restatement of my statement (if that makes sense), all things being equal I do favor the hitter. Plus, as much as I love Shields, there is some regression coming.
By Ryan on Jun 10, 2011
Ray, I also have option of Choo. In your rankings I see you have Choo higher then Eithier, so I guess that may answer my question. Eithier or Choo for the rest of ’11?
By Josh on Jun 10, 2011
Hey Ray quick trade question for ya, I have been offered Jose Reyes and would be giving up Hanley and Ogando… your thoughts??? My offense is struggling a bit now and I don’t have anyone who is a real base stealer. My pitching is decent without Ogando but he is one of my only guys bringing consistent wins.
As usual, thanks in advance for imparting your infinite baseball wisdom upon me!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Ryan – I’d take either Choo or Ethier the rest of the way for Shields. I’d say Ethier is a bit more stable but that Choo has the ability to help in all five categories which Ethier doesn’t.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Josh – I’m not giving up Ogando and Hanley for Reyes. That’s too much talent for me to pass along for one guy. I don’t think Ogando is this good, or Hanley this bad, but in total that’s too much to give up for Reyes in this guys eyes.
By Josh on Jun 10, 2011
How about if I counter the offer and ask for David Price or Pineda (who he has on his staff)to even it out? So it would be SS for SS and pitcher for pitcher.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Josh – Reyes/Price for Hanley/Ogando I would totally do. However, the Reyes/Price owner will never accept that.
If I was that guy, I wouldnt do Reyes/Pineda either, but can’t hurt to try.
By Josh on Jun 10, 2011
Copy that, thank you Sir!
By Matt on Jun 10, 2011
Hey Ray, I’ve been offered a trade of Rajai Davis and Scherzer for Weaver. He’s the first place team. Or should I counter with wanting Reyes and Scherzer or Ian Kennedy. I need some steals, but I don’t want to give up my best pitcher unless I’m making out. What do you think I should do?
By Seamus on Jun 10, 2011
Hey Ray – 12 team mixed 5×5 6 man bench. First in pitching, middle of the pack in hitting. Rotation is fairly stacked with Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, David Price, Jair Jurrjens, Jamie Garcia, Bedard and MadBum. On the bench I have Danks, and Vogelsong. My original offer was Jaime Garcia (would be $8 next year) and Maybin for Hamilton and Moustakas (before he was called up). He countered with Josh Hamilton for Felix Hernandez. My OF is your favorite Austin Jackson, Rajai Davis, Brett Gardner, Andre Ethier, and Chris Young. My gut says no, but I’m wondering if it’s a fair deal? Felix would be a tiny profit keeper at $25 next year. Thanks a lot for the advice!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Matt – If you can get Reyes/Scherzer for Weaver, I’d do it.
If you need steals, Davis/Scherzer for Weaver is also a decent offer. I’d try to sell the other guy on Scherzer having three poor outings in a row, see if you can get something better for yourself along with Scherzer.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Seamus – Your OF is extremely weak when you think that Davis/Gardner/Jackson will be lucky to hit 15 homers with 175 RBI. Really bad for an outfield unless your INF has power bats.
Hamilton for King Felix = I think is a fair deal, and it would give you the power bat you need in the OF. Problem for me is that King Felix is an A for durability, Hamilton like a C-. Gotta keep that in mind in a keeper league.
I’d take Hernandez.
By Matt on Jun 10, 2011
ray – i would give up lincecum, bj upton and Adam Done — i get back Tex, Castro and Zobrist.
12 team
By david on Jun 10, 2011
hi, ray. i’m in a 12 team mixed 6×6. weekly head to head 6th categories are K’s for batters and losses for pitchers. i’m doing well, mostly carried by my offense. each week i win the hr and rbi and run categories usually pretty easily regardless of my opponents. although we score week to week, my totals in these categories are atop the league. pitching can use some improvement, and K’s is my weakest category for pitchers.
i can trade robinson cano and tim hudson for felix hernandez and adam dunn.
if dunn can bounce back, i think there’s big upside for me here as i’d play him as an extra infielder or utility. i hate losing cano, but i can slot in zobrist or kelly johnson. a downgrade, but not a terrible one i think. dunn hurts me in my k’s for batters category, but i’m pretty weak there to start. of course, king felix is king felix. what do you think of this trade for me?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 11, 2011
Matt – This deal is tough to evaluate since 4 of the guys play different positions.
Lincecum is an ace.
BJUP has been up and down, but still huge talent.
Dunn is gonna wake up at some point.
Tex is as stable as they come.
I’m no fan of Castro other than his AVG.
Zobrist does a little bit of everything, minus the average.
Keep the three you have. Castro doesn’t have me sold, and Dunn should rebound.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 11, 2011
David – Cano/Hudson for Dunn/Hernandez
If your league counts Ks, Dunn is a terrible option unless powering the ball. I’d have to think you could get him for even less in your league cause of that.
You obviously get a huge boost in the SP column, but it’s not like Hudson is horrible or anything.
I can’t suggest doing this. Cano is a rock at second, a superstar. You do have good depth with Zobrist and KJ, but I’d look to trade one of them first. Only do this deal if you are desperate to add an ace on the hill.
By Matt on Jun 11, 2011
Ray,who would you recommend picking up for a start on Sunday for a pitcher thats on waivers? Its not so deep.
By Otay on Jun 11, 2011
With Trumbo as my only 1b, do you think it would be in my interest to trade alex gordon and starlin castro for justin smoak and logan morrison? My other middle infielders are tulowitzki kelly johnson and justin turner
By Craig N on Jun 11, 2011
Is Denorfia for Cueto a fair offer in nl only league
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
Craig N – Nope. Cueto should be able to bring a lot more than Denorfia, especially since he doesn’t own any elite skill on offense. Plus, 10 RBI in 142 ABs? Just terrible.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
Otay – You’re not going to be able to make it with Trumbo as your 1B this year, you’re giving up a ton there. The deal you propose is fine, but Smoak isn’t much better an option at first, so I wouldn’t make the deal.Neither Smoak or Trumbo should be starting at 1B, probably even in a 15 tm league. Look to strengthen the position in another deal.
By Frankie S. on Jun 12, 2011
Hey Ray,
I’m looking to pick up a starting pitcher off the waiver wire. 14 team mixed league.
Runs, ERA, WHIP, K’s, Holds, Saves
Who on this short list is the best add long-term?
Randy Wolf
Colby Lewis (on waivers, would have to use #2 waiver priority)
Brad Hand
Jake Arrieta
MIke Minor
Chris Narveson
R.A. Dickey
J.A. Happ
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
Frankie S – Here are my thoughts.
Lewis is the only one that I really like. Rough of late, but still a strong hurler.
Other options –
Wolf – solid, usually gives team chance. Won’t kill you in the ratio categories.
Narverson is solid, boring but solid. Value in that in 14 tm leagues.
Dickey continues to have success. Nice end of rotation arm.
By Frankie S. on Jun 12, 2011
Thanks Ray, so this begs the question: Do I use my #2 waiver claim on Lewis or do I hope he passes through waivers and if he doesn’t, pick up Wolf?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
Frankie S – I’d use my waiver claim on Lewis, unless you are in a shallow league that doesn’t roster up and comers likely Lawrie, Jennings, Ackley. If those type of guys are still out there, pass on Lewis without losing your priority and just add Wolf.
By Frankie S. on Jun 13, 2011
Last question on this Ray, I promise. Mike Leake is on the waiver wire and I wouldn’t have to use my #2 Waiver priority.
Do you think Leake will remain in the rotation after Homer Bailey comes back from the DL? And, would you rather have Leake over Colby Lewis?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
Frankie S – We’re beating this one to death aren’t we? Did you look at my ROTW rankings for pitchers? I think it would answer all your questions about this.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/03/rotw-rankings-pitchers/
By Frankie S. on Jun 13, 2011
haha, thanks Ray, don’t worry, we’ve officially killed it. I’m going to put the waiver in for lewis I think. Thanks again.
By Matt on Jun 13, 2011
Ray, I need steals who would you recommend picking up off waivers without me losing batting average and RBI’s? There is C.Gomez, W.Venable, A.Jackson,A.Castilla, and J.Bartlett.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 14, 2011
Matt – None of the guys you’ve listed will be able to help you in RBI. If your goal is to add steals, Gomez is the option, but his AVG is awful. Jackson is a better option if you are going OF. Bartlett offers something with his SS elig.
At this point, I’d go with Casilla who is hitting .347 with four steals in June, though he has only 12 RBI on the year.
By Frankie S. on Jun 14, 2011
Hey Ray,
I have a couple of guys coming off the DL soon, like Matt Holliday, so I probably will have to drop one of these hot prospects: Brown, Rizzo, Moustakas.
I’m going to try and trade one or two of them first for some starting pitching, but assuming I can’t put a deal together, how would you rank these 3 guys in order of value in the following categories for the rest of the year? (Runs, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS, HR)
Moustakas
Rizzo
Brown
By Ray Flowers on Jun 14, 2011
Frankie S- Moutakas, Rizzo Brown. Total guess of course since we don’t have much to go on with any of them.
By Frankie S. on Jun 15, 2011
Hey Ray,
I’m starting to get a little high on Carlos Carrasco on the Tribe. What are your thoughts on him?
Should I drop any of these starting pitchers for him?
Matt Garza
Jeremy Hellickson
Zack Britton
Colby Lewis
AJ Burnett
Homer Bailey
Edinson Volquez
Also, I could drop Rizzo or Moustakas for him, which I don’t think I should do.
Scoring Categories
Wins, Saves, Holds, ERA, WHIP, K’s
By Jim on Jun 15, 2011
Need steals, considering trading Ichiro for Gardner. Thoughts?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 15, 2011
Frankie S – I would consider dropping Bailey for Carrasco. Bailey has a great arm, but what has he done this year? 30 IP. Further, the guy owns a 4.90 career ERA and 1.47 WHIP. IF he’s healthy and rolling I’d rather have him, but can you trust that at this point?
By Steve r on Jun 16, 2011
Hi Ray, I have Matt Holiday coming off the DL and need to drop either J Rollins,Uggla,or Colby rambus – who gets dropped?
By Frankie S. on Jun 16, 2011
Hey Ray,
Listen, I have this huge trade on the table for my other league, which is a 10 team, H2H points league.
The trade is:
I trade: Adrian Gonzalez and Jhonny Peralta
I get: Tim Lincecum and Danny Espinosa
The problem with this league Ray is that pitchers are favored HEAVILY in terms of points. For example:
Wins: 8 points
K’s: 1 point each
Complete Games: 10 point
Shutout: Another 10 points
Crazy stuff, because a pitcher like Lincecum can have a ton of points in a two-start week. (Assuming he turns things around) And I already have a stacked offense, in my opinion at least.
Anyway, so my team is in 9th place and I need to make a move. Is this a good deal for me?
Here’s my team:
C- Soto
1B- Pujols
2B- Figgins
3B- Youkilis
SS- Castro
CI- A-Gonz, Hosmer, Sandoval
MI- Ackley, Peralta
OF=McCutchen
Chris Young
Matt Kemp
Brett Gardner
Domonic Brown
SP: Weaver
Carrasco
Stauffer
Morrow
Greinke
Garza
Britton
Humber
RP Hanrahan
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Steve R – You need to be playing in a league that is much deeper than the one you are in if you are considering dropping any of those three players. Are you in an 8-team league?
If you have to drop one it’s gotta be Uggla.
By Matt on Jun 20, 2011
Ray, I just picked up J. Smoak recently and he hasn’t been producing like he had earlier in the year. I was thinking up picking up Cody Ross or Reed Johnson. Which do you think is a better pick up? Also, I wanted to picked up a pitcher off waivers and drop Collmentor, so would u recommend picking up M. Leake, I. Nova, W. Davis, B. Arroyo, or D. Holland?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Matt – Johnson likely to lose playing time with Soriano back in action. No upside at all with him. Ross isn’t anything special either.
Smoak is the best bet to do something significant ROTW, but he also plays first base, arguably the deepest position in the game.
Holland has the best arm of that group. He’d be the guy I would add if I was making a move.
Can’t trade Collmenter first eh?
By brad on Jun 20, 2011
a follow up to the trade i just mentioned, do you think H Rameriz has value going foward. Is he hurt did he hate the coach will he respond in the second half of the season? Is he worth trading for or is it foolish? Also have R davis and I am getting worried about his playing time he does steal alot of bases but will he continue to get playing time? He did steel 52 last year.
By Matt on Jun 20, 2011
No,I haven’t tried to ship Collmenter yet, I’m not sure what pitcher I could even get for him you know?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Matt – I can’t answer for you how any player is valued. Everyone is different there. Savvy owners will be selling Collmenter. People who are more surface types might pay a good deal for him.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Brad – HanRam is variable to say the least. He’s still not playing night after day, and until that back is sound, his value is up in the air. If healthy, he should be fine.
Trading for him, sure, if the price is right.
Davis isn’t a very good hitter. He’s steals like every time he gets on base though, so his SB total should remain strong. Plus, Patterson can’t keep this up forever. Oh, and he stole 50 bases last season – it was 52 RBI.
By Brad on Jun 20, 2011
What do you think of trading weeks and r Davis for pagan and Francour
By Donna on Jun 20, 2011
Ty Wigginton or Ackley for 2nd base going forward. I worry about rookies consistency but Wigginton could lose time to Ian stewart. I’m in a 10 team H to H(also have Uggla collecting splinters on the bench)
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Donna – I’m not worried about Stewart right now. He’s been strong in Triple-A, but until he comes back and does something, I’m not worried about him.
Wigginton is interesting cause of his multi position elig. Ackley though is worth the shot if you ask me. Wigginton will outperform in the hitting cats, but Ackley has a chance to help out across the board. Plus, if he gets hot, he’ll then have more value in a deal over Ty.
By Joel on Jun 20, 2011
Ray:
would u trade Youk and Pagan to get Aramis and Jacoby? H2h 5×5.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 20, 2011
Joel – I’d prefer Youkilis and Ellsbury. Obviously that doesn’t help here. Pagan has been hot of late, but I’m not sure he repeats the level of play he showed last year. For that reason, I’d take Ellsbury and Aramis. Ramirez is just starting to come on in the power department. If it keeps up, I really like that combo.
By Frankie S. on Jun 21, 2011
Hey Ray!
I was scouring the waiver wire for a pickup. I’m kind of losing patience with Domonic Brown. Are any of these waiver free agents worth a pickup over Brown to fill my Utility slot?
Categories: Runs, AVG, SB, HR, OPS, RBI
Nyjer Morgan
Magglio Ordonez
Desmond Jennings
Freddie Freeman
Ty Wigginton
Justin Bourgeois
Doesn’t have to be an OF, just someone to fill the utility slot. I’m thinking Morgan, what are your thoughts?
By Matt on Jun 21, 2011
Well Ray I took your advice and put up trades for Collmenter, and I got Morton in return. Do you think I made a decent trade, and what do you think about Morton the rest of the way?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Frankie S – Morgan is hitting like crazy, but he isn’t stealing any bases which makes him fairly useless since he has no power. Mags is a vet who has always hit when healthy. He’s not playing full time right now though. Jennings is in minors. Could be great, but he’s not here. Freeman is solid and is hitting .303 over his last 41 games, though not much power. Wiggington qualifies at every position. Bourgeois never plays (look at his HORRIBLE runs, HR, RBI categories).
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Matt – Morton is one of the few pitchers that you could have added for Collmenter and gotten worse. Sorry to say, but it’s a bad deal.
Guess you missed my article from a month ago?
http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/25/how-is-this-happening/
Since that article Morton has a 6.75 ERA and 2.04 WHIP.
I’d recommend reading this — http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/07/which-pitchers-should-i-target/
By Frankie S. on Jun 21, 2011
Hey Ray,
What are your feelings on Bartolo Colon? He’s available in my league. Should I drop any of these starting pitchers for him and stash him in my DL slot?
Zach Britton
Matt Garza
Jeremy Hellickson
AJ Burnett
E. Volquez
Colby Lewis
By bvtime on Jun 21, 2011
Who do you like better going forward: Granderson or Holliday? Zobrist or Longo?
By brad on Jun 21, 2011
Hanley R ameriz and pagan for rasmas and weeks is this good trade for me I get hanley
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Brad – Its Rasmus not rasmas.
I gave my thoughts about Hanley Ramirez today – didn’t you see it?
http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/21/mailbag-june-21-2011/
Also talked about Pagan in the piece as well.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
BVTime – Holliday and Longoria.
Granderson is bound to slow in the homer category, and he can’t match Holliday in the avg. department.
As for the other call, I’m going Longoria but it’s really close. Zobrist is having a really solid year, and qualifies at multiple positions. I’m gonna give Longoria and his talent the edge, though I’d like to see something pretty soon.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 21, 2011
Frankie S – He’s just staring to throw, so Colon wont be back when eligible. Also, EVERYTHING he is doing right now makes no sense. Obviously that medical procedure he had turned back the clock a decade. Still, he’s literally pitching at a level last seen from him six years ago. I can’t see how he can keep that up.
Garza, Hellickson, Lewis are all superior options.
By Frankie S. on Jun 23, 2011
Hey Ray,
Homer Bailey is coming off the DL for Sunday’s game. He’s going to start. I was thinking about dropping Zach Britton and moving Bailey from my DL slot to my active roster. What do you think?
Here are my other starters: (I don’t think they are worth dropping for Homer)
Matt Garza
Jeremy Hellickson
AJ Burnett
E. Volquez
Colby Lewis
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Frankei S – How many times are we all going to play this Homer Bailey game? I want nothing from him. He’s always hurt, never consistent, and might be the biggest tease on the hill in the game. He could put it all together and star, but what in five years makes everyone so certain it will happen? I’m not a huge fan of Britton, but at least he’s stable and takes the ball every five games.
By Jim on Jun 23, 2011
Ray,
3 choices to make for next week: (4×4 AL-Only)
Wakefield or Peavy
Thome or Ruggiano
Dyson or Dirks
I wonder if Ruggiano and Dirks are slowing down a bit, plus Mags is back for Tigers. Leaning Peavy, Thome and Dirks. Steals always helps but Dyson’s playing time may be limited.
Thanks!
Jim
MySports1 (Twitter)
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Jim – It’s way too early to make calls on lineups for next week. Injuries and matchups are still totally up in the air. Wait a few days to make up your calls (Peavy should be good to go, but we need a medical report. Thome should be back from injury on Friday, but who knows for certain).
Ruggiano can’t keep this up, and he is very likely to slump and then losing PT to Desmond Jennings if I had to guess.
Dirks isn’t an elite prospect and projects as a 4th OF. With Mags back, he’ll likely lose PT.
By Joel on Jun 23, 2011
Ray:
I’ve been offered Choo and Zobrist for Josh Hamilton in my 6×6 h2h league. I’m for some reason very reluctant. Is that fair value do you think? would you do it?
By Jim on Jun 23, 2011
Thanks Ray, this is for a season long league vs. a week to week league. So I lose the player for good when I drop him, no taxi squad either. A 4×4 league called The Black Angus and Tobacco League based north of Milwaukee, WI.
So for rest of the season, Thome over Ruggiano, Peavy over Wakefield and tossup between Dirks and Dyson?
Thanks again,
Jim
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Jim – I can give you my thoughts ROTW, but know that there is a lot of uncertainty with these calls – Peavy, Ruggiano, Dyson.
By Matt on Jun 23, 2011
Ray, I have 2 questions for you. 1. What do you think about me dropping buehrle or Colon for Holland? 2. I was thinking about trading Villanueva, buehrle, and Smoak for Carlos Carrasco. So what do you think I should do?
By Mike on Jun 23, 2011
Ray – Appreciate your great work. Here’s a question I’d like your opinion on: is this the worst year ever for Catchers? The few top choices (Mauer, McCann, Posey, Martinez, Santana) all were drafted way before I thought reasonable to take a catcher (in most cases, I’d say I was right). I snagged Soto with a late-round choice. He stunk and then got hurt. I DL’ed him, grabbed Suzuki, and then dumped Soto when he got healthy (don’t want to carry two Catchers). Although he homered yesterday, Suzuki has stunk even worse than Soto. I am very tempted to dump Suzuki for one of the following available catchers: Olivo, Y. Molina, Lucroy, Iannetta, Wieters, Napoli or Posada. The problem is that our league has a restriction on acquisitions and, while I can make a move, I wouldn’t want to unless one of the above catchers represents a clear upgrade rest of the year over Suzuki. Any thoughts? I thought I might go for Wieters or Napoli, but Wieters looks like he is in decline (and I always thought he was over-rated), and Napoli has not played as much as I would have liked, has a low average, and then got hurt. Should I just wait it out and hope Suzuki returns to prior levels, or grab the “hot” catcher when it gets closer to the play-offs (my current thinking)? Thanks for your thoughts.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 23, 2011
Matt – I’m no fan of Colon. His age concerns me, his record of poor health, as does the fact that he is pitching as if it is 2005. Buehrle is stable/consolid, but there is no upside at all. Holland has the big arm, but uncertain how he will handle full year in bigs, and a bad park to pitch in.
Safe is Buerhle. Upside is Holland.
WAY TOO MUCH to give up those three guys for Carrasco. Pass on that one.
By Matt W on Jun 24, 2011
Ray. if you had to go with one would you have Holland or Gee?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 24, 2011
Matt W – I’d go with Holland over Gee. He has the better arm, and honestly the better skills, but there are issues about how he will fare in the second half, especially in that home barn. Still, the kid has a great arm, and Gee isn’t likely to repeat his first half in the second.
By Frankie S. on Jun 26, 2011
Hey Ray,
I just saw that Jake Peavy is available in my league. What are your feelings on him? Should I drop ethier Volquez or Britton for him?
Question 2: My league values middle men and holds. Who would you rather have going forward, Aroldis Chapman or Hong Chi Kuo?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 27, 2011
Frankie S – I’ve said and written this over and over – I dont trust Peavy.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/17/around-the-horn-june17-2011/
http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/08/around-the-horn-june-8-2011/
http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/31/mailbag-may-31-2011/
You can drop Volquez and take a shot, but I’m not sold on Peavy’s health.
Chapman. Kuo has a great arm, but no telling where his head is at. At least Chapman’s issues are purely mechanical.
By Matt W on Jun 28, 2011
Ray, do you know if Ortiz will get more than 1 or 2 at bats vs Philly, and do you see him playing first at all in these next I think 6 games?
By Ryan on Jun 28, 2011
Ray, in an NL only league I picked up Bastardo since Madson is one of my two closers. I need to drop one of these pitchers: Pelfrey; Luebke and Bailey. I am thinking Pelfrey but has been pitching pretty well lately and Luebke is not guaranteed a spot. What are your thoughts?
By Matt K on Jun 28, 2011
Ray, would you go with chatwood or holland or wade davis rest of the way? Chatwood has been hot his last couple starts and holland has been average at best,so what do you think?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 28, 2011
Matt W- There is no place to play Ortiz in an NL park. They Sox said they might use AGone in the OF, but I just can’t seem them doing that, and if he does, it’s only one game. Don’t count on Ortiz at all this week.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 28, 2011
Ryan – Pelfrey is most likely to remain in the rotation all season but he could get traded, and Luebke and Bailey certainly have better arms. Luebke could lose his spot once Harang returns, but still a great arm and in a great park.
I’ve got no love for Pelfrey.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 28, 2011
Matt K – Chatwood can’t keep up his solid ratios, just can’t. Davis has eschewed Ks for control, and as a result he’s become a solid hurler with little fantasy upside. Only arm that excites is that of Holland.
By Frankie S. on Jun 29, 2011
Hey Ray,
Rich Harden is coming off the DL to pitch Friday. I remember this guy striking out a lot of batters when he was healthy. Do you think he’s worth a speculative add in a 14 team league?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 29, 2011
Frankie S – In a 14 team lg. you can take a shot on Harden. It’s a certain risk, but if you have a dead spot on your roster, why not take a shot? Harden is a K per inning guy, and when he’s locked in, there aren’t many who are harder to hit. He’s really no different than Erik Bedard, an look how that pick has turned out this year (even with his move to the DL with a minor knee issue).
By Frankie S. on Jul 4, 2011
Hey Ray,
What do you think about Eric Thames as a pickup for the rest of the year? I’ve had some bad luck with rookies (i.e. Rizzo, Moustakas, etc) all of whom I have picked up and dropped already.
I have no bench, this is a 14 team league, I was thinking of dropping either Britton or Volquez for Thames. I have too many SP
What do you think?
By Ray Flowers on Jul 4, 2011
Frankie S – You said it yourself without saying it… rookies are a total crapshoot. Talent is one thing, but how that translates to production in the majors is a totally different story. People spend far too much time and energy on rookies. The truth is, the majority of them fail to live up to expectations in their first year.
Thames has power, but he strikes out a quarter of the time which could easily limit his batting average. However, he’s not a lock to play everyday, not with Snider now up, and Davis still lurking (he had a huge Sunday). I think Thames is an AL only option right now.
By Frankie S. on Jul 7, 2011
Hey Ray,
What do you think of this trade?
I give: Michael Bourn
I get: Cole Hamels
Here are my SP:
AJ Burnett
Gallardo
Romero
Colon
Harden
Garza
Hellickson
Colby Lewis
Edinson Volquez
I know I need another top quality SP, but I feel that Bourn, with his SB, Runs, would be too much to give up from my offense.
Here’s my offense:
C- Iannetta
IB- Youkilis/Dunn
2B Espinosa
3B Beltre
SS- Starlin Castro
OF- Holliday
Stanton
Ethier
Bourn
UT- Wigginton
Do you think someone like Bourn is easy to replace on the WW? Or do you think he’s too valuable to trade for Hamels? THanks in advance!