Youngsters in the News
June 8th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
People get giddy when they are around greatness. They also loose their minds when they think they have a chance to be in on the ground floor of something big. That’s why all we’ve heard about lately is Brett Lawrie, Anthony Rizzo, Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley (I wrote about three of those guys in The Prospect Trinity). I’ve been preaching caution with the expectation train with those four players, and to illustrate how precarious the path to greatness is I thought I would discuss four second year players that are having varying degrees of success this season.
Starlin Castro is hitting .301, one point better than the .300 mark he attained as a rookie. However, after hitting .348 in April he has managed to post a mere .261 mark over his last 134 at-bats. As for his power stroke – it still is MIA. Castro is displaying no power with only one homer in 249 at-bats. So much for the power surge we saw in the post-season (I said he wouldn’t be able to keep that up to anyone that would listen). Castro hasn’t been able to translate his speed into stolen bases either as he has five steals on the year but only o-n-e since April 26th. I wrote about Castro back in February in Second Year Players and warned everyone not to overvalue a player who would likely only offer a boost in the batting average category. You didn’t listen did you?
Aroldis Chapman is struggling – big time. The guy might throw 100+ mph and illicit outright joy in fans who get to watch the radar gun with every blazing pitch, but the results just haven’t been there this season. In 13 innings with the Reds he walked an utterly amazing 20 batters leading to a 13.85 BB/9 mark and a 6.92 ERA. In 5.1 innings since he was sent down to “rehab” a shoulder injury (I’m not buying he is really hurt), Chapman has walked only three batters but he’s allowed 12 hits and 10 runs leading to a 16.88 ERA and 2.81 WHIP. The Reds have to get this guy “fixed,” but with the way he’s throwing right now they clearly aren’t even close to meeting that goal.
Jason Heyward is soft. That’s the prevailing thought amongst baseball people, and he did nothing to quiet that belief when he stated that he wouldn’t return to the field until his shoulder was 100 percent. Well, count Chipper Jones as a guy who thinks it’s time for the youngster to buck up. “I think where Jason might have erred was the comment that he made, ‘I’m not coming back until it doesn’t hurt anymore,” Jones said. “…there are a bunch of his teammates that are out there playing with discomfort and not healthy, and still going at it.” Heyward hasn’t played since May 21st, and what was supposed to be a relatively minor issue with his shoulder has now stretched on for a much greater length of time than anyone thought. When you’re being called out in the media by the greatest infielder in team history as Heyward is, it might be time to give yourself a long, hard look in the mirror. Hopefully Heyward will listen and do his best to get back out on the field.
Carlos Santana is hitting .227 and everyone is disappointed in the guy who was supposed to be the breakout star at the catchers position. However, there are plenty of reasons to turn that frown upside down. First, Santana is on pace for about 15 homers, a strong total for a catcher. He’s also on pace for 60 RBI and 60 runs scored. It may not sound like much, but 15-60-60 are totals that only Victor Martinez and Brian McCann matched last season at the catchers position. In addition, Santana has two more walks than strikeouts leading to a .361 OBP, a fantastic mark give his batting average. Trust me, you don’t walk more than you strike out and hit .227. He’s already turned things around the past two weeks as he’s hit .324 with nine RBI, thanks in part to a slight change in his batting stance (he eliminated a toe tap). Santana seems primed to still meet expectations this season.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Santana, Jason Heyward, Starlin Castro
By Alan on Jun 8, 2011
Ray,
I got a trade offer in my 10 team 5 x 5 league.
I would be giving up V. Martinez and Brian Wilson for Lincecum and Suzuki. What do you think of this deal?
Here is the rest of my pitching staff:
SP: Kershaw, Oswalt, Shields, Pineda, Billingsley, Lewis, Scherzer,
RP: Wilson, Hanrahan
By Chad on Jun 8, 2011
Ray- Need some help. We play in a 12 team mixed H2H league and I’m the commish. 2 teams father and son have stopped managing their teams and told me they are done. 1 is in 4th the other next to last. We have min innings pitched each week and if the innings aren’t pitched then those stats don’t count. They pulled all pitchers. What do you suggest?
By Jim on Jun 8, 2011
Ray, Holy crap. If Chipper called me out like that, I’d play through a gunshot wound. You just shake your head thinking about how many times Larry has hobbled out there when his leg was falling off, and still found a way to help the team.
But speaking of stud 3rd basemen (LOL), what the hell is up with McGeHee?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 8, 2011
Alan – I assume you only start one catcher given your description. Since its a 10 tm lg you should be OK there, but you’re giving up a huge advantage with VMart heading out.
You already have a wonderful pitching staff, so why the desire to add another ace? Plus, if you do this deal your going to be down to one closer, and in a 10 team lg that means your going to sink in the saves category quickly.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 8, 2011
Chad – (1) if they are done, and the SUCK for doing that, lock them out of their teams. (2) Try to immediately find two other people to manage their teams.
You can set the lineup yourself each week since you are the commish. You can just put their best lineup out there each week, though some might get mad cause then you are actually managing their team.
The best way to do it would be to find two new people to just take over the teams. Otherwise, make sure their best lineup is out there each week (IF you are in a league with daily transactions, you have to get someone to run their teams cause you can’t manage them on a daily basis).
By Ray Flowers on Jun 8, 2011
Jim – I was pretty darn surprised to see Chipper just let Heyward have it. Here is the whole interview:
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/06/07/chipper-braves-need-heyward-back-on-field/
McGehee really isn’t that good. Many over estimated his value coming into the season.
His K and BB rates are the same. However, he isn’t hitting any liners (down 3.7 percent), and beating everything into the ground (53 percent grounders). His 1.60 GB/FB ratio is a “fast guy” number. Even when he does hit it in the air, his HR/F ratio is only half of what it was the last two years.
By BVtime on Jun 8, 2011
You be the judge Ray… Which is the better staff.
A Ogando C Kershaw D Price S Marcum
Y Gallardo J Chacin (R)
RP: Storen Santos and Marmol
OR
D Hudson G Gonzalez J Weaver R Romero R Halladay K Lohse R Nolasco
RP: Bell and Madson
By Ray Flowers on Jun 8, 2011
BVT – Team A has edge in RP with three arms.
Team B has great top end with Weaver and Halladay, and just a bit more SP depth.
Both are solid. I’d want Team A.
By James on Jun 8, 2011
I made a comment a few weeks back saying that Heyward was listed as soft and you said you cannot predict injury. I said I agree but there is a feeling that on any injury he is going to sit back. I own him in a keeper league and I’m done. We can keep players forever and I see this to be a reoccurring theme. Who should I target as future keepers to replace him. We are standard 5 cats as well as Total bases and On Base. My guys to target to replace Heyward
Hosmer
LoMo
Colby Rasmus
Mike Stanton
Please rank who you would rather have in a keeper going forward. I’m willing to take 70 cents on the dollar for Heyward. I have a chance to win this year and injuries are going to be an everlasting issue
By Ray Flowers on Jun 8, 2011
James – Let me warn you – Heyward has IMMENSE talent, and if you can keep him forever you might rue the day you let him go. Don’t forget that he is two months YOUNGER than Eric Hosmer. I think it is a big time mistake to give up on him. Plenty of players have been injured for a couple of years and then played 150 games for a decade. Plus, the injuries Heyward has suffered have not been related.
The only guy on the list I’d consider for Heyward would be Stanton, but even then there is no denying that Heyward’s upside is much higher.
By James on Jun 8, 2011
I hear you Ray. I am usually not a reactionary type of Manager. I was listening to Sirius XM Fantasy and Cliff Floyd was talking about how he had a convo with Bobby Cox and he is very soft. I hate injury prone players, ruin championships J.D. Drew anyone?
I will take your word for now and take him off the market for now. I respect your opinion allot so hopefully this pays off
By Marco on Jun 9, 2011
Ray:
Is Mike Morse a sell high candidate? Or is he the real deal? Looks like I am losing Brett Anderson for at least a while…..and I was just offered Max Scherzer for Mike Morse Straight up…..I would play Aubrey Huff in Morse’s place.
Thanks!
By BVtime on Jun 9, 2011
Ray,
I offered my buddy Granderson, Beltran, and Tulo for Reyes and Braun am I killing him or would that be fair? If I replaced Braun with Kemp am I then getting killed. I have so many OFs I need to dump one for an upgrade.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 9, 2011
Marco – Of course he is a sell high guy since he won’t hit .340 with 50 homers this year. What is his value to someone else? I doubt anyone thinks he is that massive performer either, so you won’t get that price in a deal. That makes it tougher to deal him. Could he hit .280 with 25 HRs? Sure he could, but tons of 1B/OF can do that.
I like Scherzer. With his recent struggles, he is a good buy low option. I’d take this deal, but Huff at first needs some help, so go about getting another guy to help out.