Moustakas Gets the Call
June 10th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Today I’ll touch on the call up of Mike Moustakas, the struggles of Trevor Cahill and Ichiro Suzuki, the continued dominance of Justin Verlander and the fact that there is an NL batter who is excelling right under everyone’s nose.
Back in March I warned people not to reach for Trevor Cahill in Which Pitchers Should I Target? I then ranked Cahill as my 50th best pitcher in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers piece. People sent me some nasty notes saying I was stupid and completely overlooking the great work Cahill did in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). It’s still early, but I see vindication on the horizon. Cahill has lost his last four decisions and he has looked atrocious over his last four starts – 7.25 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.07 K/BB ratio. On the year Cahill still owns a strong 3.18 ERA an a passable 1.32 WHIP, but I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.
Without looking, who is leading the NL in OPS? If you guessed Lance Berkman (1.080) you’d be right. Some of you may have gotten that one, but tell me, who is sixth in the NL? If you haven’t looked at the list the past couple of days there is no way you would know that it’s the Rockies… Todd Helton (.928). Helton was horrible last year with a .728 OPS in 398 at-bats, but it seems like everyone just wrote him off coming into the year because of his age (38 in August) and back woes despite the fact that he was pretty darn good two years ago (.904 OPS). If you grabbed him late in your mixed league, great job.
Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .252 on the year including an impossible to believe .132 in June and .189 since the start of May in what has been the worst slump of his life (I contracted his t-ball coach to confirm). Ichiro is 37 years old, but can a guy who has 10-straight years of hitting .300 with 200-hits suddenly just stop hitting? I think it’s doubtful. His walk rate is better than normal, and his K-rate would be his best mark since his 2001 season. He is hitting more balls than ever on the ground (62 percent this year versus 56 for his career), but given his skill set that is better than the alternative of him hitting the ball into the air. Ichiro has seen a gradual reduction in his line drive rate the past few years, but his 17.6 percent mark is slightly better than the 17.3 percent rate from last season, yet somehow his BABIP has dropped from .353 to .273. Given that his career BABIP mark is .354 and that he has never finished a year below .316, I believe that mark, and his average, will rebound. He wont hit .328 this year – his career mark – but I think .300 is still doable.
Justin Verlander is 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last eight starts to improve his yearly totals to 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 93 Ks in 102.2 IP (8.15 K/9). Flat out, the guy is an ace.
ROYALS CALL UP SLUGGER
Mike Moustakas was called up by the Royals Thursday as they continue to switch gears midstream by calling up all their youthful talent. Here are my thoughts on the slugging third baseman.
The second player taken in the 2007 draft, Moustakas hit .322 with 36 homers and 124 RBI last year – in just 118 games mind you – to be named to just about every minor league all-star squad you can think of. He started out this season a bit slowly, but after hitting .356 over his last 10 games he upped his average to .287 in Triple-A with 10 homers and 44 RBI in 55 games. The young third baseman has power, plus power actually, and he should be able to flash that immediately with the Royals. For a slugger he also does a fairly good job at avoiding the whiffs, though that doesn’t mean he is ready to be a .300 hitter in the big leagues – he isn’t.
With third base being a minefield this season of injury and poor performance, Moustakas is a name you need to take immediate note of. In my recently released ROTW Rankings: Hitters piece, I listed Moustakas 19th at the position. Why so low? I honestly didn’t think he would be up for another month. At this point I have no problem moving him up to 15th on that list which means he is obviously an immediate add in 15 team leagues, and if you are in a 12 team league that uses corner infielders, he would also be a must add. Of course, this thumbs up shouldn’t be offered without my standard “be careful he is just a rookie with no big league experience” line. I’m predicting success here based on his skills and pedigree, but that is by no means a guarantee that he will live up to the hype in 2011.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Ichiro Suzuki, Justin Verlander, Lance Berkman, Mike Moustakas, Todd Helton, Trevor Cahill
By Jim on Jun 10, 2011
Ray,
To clarify your previous Twitter post about this, did you mean group 1 by a lot? (see below) I think Gardner steals more bases than Ichiro, Hamilton better than Cruz rest of year and Lester-Floyd close. (Lester whip lower) Thanks, Jim 4×4 AL only league, need steals.
»
BaseballGuys Ray Flowers
I want first group, but a lot. RT @mysports1: Lester, Cruz and Ichiro for Hamilton, Gardner and Floyd? Thoughts?
4 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Jim – Lester dominates Floyd. I’d take Ichiro over Gardner every day of the week even with his struggles right now. Cruz might not be as good as Hamilton, but he’s awfully good, and both are huge injury risks.
No brainer for me, I want Lester/Cruz/Ichiro.
By Jim on Jun 10, 2011
Floyd’s ratio is only 1.1481, Lester is 1.3648
Floyd ERA is 3.98, Lester is 3.98
Floyd has 6 wins, Lester 8.
K’s don’t count in our 4X4 AL only league.
Is Floyd under valued here?
Good points about Cruz/Hamilton.
Ichiro SB’s are a concern vs. Gardner, who I think is on pace now for more.
When is vacation for you? Thanks, Jim
***Of course Peavy now on DL, Arrieta looking better. Still too close to call.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Jim – Don’t look just at 13 starts. Let’s look at last two and half years.
Floyd: 27-29, 4.04 ERA, 374 Ks, 1.27 WHIP
Lester: 42-19, 3.43 ERA, 529 Ks, 1.24 WHIP
Your league may not count Ks, but they still point to a pitchers ability to get batters out.
I have Floyd at #41 ROTW – http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/ROTW-Pit-June3U-20113.pdf
I had my two days of vacation last weekend… that’s it for the rest of my life. j/k
By Dennis on Jun 10, 2011
Hi Ray!
Just lost Prado (staph infection) for a few weeks. Checked your rest of the way hitters list and the only two highest rated MI’s available are JJ Hardy and Gordon Beckham (we go SS, 2B and MI, 11 team roto). 2 questions:
Which is a better option (listed separately by position on your ranking?
I would have to drop Posey (15th round keeper next year) or an SP (probably Bedard, my #8 SP). Bedard is an injury risk and I see lots of other options if I need them later on the WW (Beachy, Niese, Baker, Danks). Using Arencibia and considering him as a keeper next year at 20 instead of Posey anyway. Think I am nuts to drop Posey at this time instead of holding for at least as long as I can? Haven’t had any luck trying to trade him. I’m in first and committed to going for it this year.
Thanks,
Dennis
By jay on Jun 10, 2011
ray I am listening to you right now and I have a trade question for you but don’t want to bother the show .I was offered andre ethier and jose valle verde 4 hanley ramirez this is a 12 team standard roto and I am I 4 in saves in in fifth place . this is a 5 keeper league
By Chrissy on Jun 10, 2011
Hi Ray! I need your help 10-team H2H mixed.Prado on the DL got offered D.Ugla for C.Carpenter. My other pitchers are Oswalt, Hanson, Masterson, Colby Lewis,B.Morrow and Scherzer. What do you think? Thanks for your help!
Chrissy
By Ricky S on Jun 10, 2011
Ray,
In a 5×5, regardless of position, who’s going to have better numbers for the rest of the year: Aramis Ramirez or Eric Hosmer
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Dennis – Beckham is finally starting to hit. I’m not in love with him, but with all the injuries that Hardy has had the past few years, I’d go with the Sox 2B since you don’t need another injured guy up the middle.
You cannot drop Posey. If you’re gonna move on from him, trade him. Someone would pay. If no one will pay, then just hold on. A 15th rd keeper at C next year? That’s a risk I’m totally taking.
I have no problem moving Bedard, but you can’t drop him either. Trade him sure, but you can’t dump him for nothing.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Jay – Glad you like listening to the show.
Ethier/Valverde for Hanley.
Since it’s a keeper league, I’d take the side of Hanley, unless you are all in for this year. If that is the case, take the steady and strong Ethier, and the 30 saves you’ll get from Valverde.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Chrissy – Carpenter has pitched much better than he has looked in terms of his record an ERA. As much as you might need a MI, you can’t deal Capenter for Uggla at this time. Uggla has been so bad, you should be able to get him for less. Try to make it happen for Masterson.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 10, 2011
Ricky S – I’m gonna say Aramis over Hosmer. It’s more of a gut call than anything. I don’t know if Hosmer is going to be able to keep up in the average category, and despite what we have seen to this point, I still think the power comes back for Aramis.
By Joey on Jun 10, 2011
I picked up Moustakas, but already have ARod and a soon to be returning Zimmerman. I also have Lawrie on my bench. Had Lawrie in reserve for Util and as fill-in for Utley’s days off. Am I foolish here to keep both?
10 Team Mixed Points league
Batting = R,HR,RBI,SB,TB,AVG
Pitching = W,SV,K,ERA,WHIP,K/9
Team is in 1st after good last 3 weeks, but I feel the need to tweak to fortify for the long run. I already flipped Cueto to a Reds fan for Matt Cain. Do you see other glaring holes?
C-Matt Wieters
1B-Miguel Cabrera
2B-Chase Utley
3B-Álex Rodríguez
SS-Alexei Ramírez
OF-Alex Gordon
OF-Adam Jones
OF-Andrew McCutchen
Util-Corey Hart
BN-Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas
DL: Ike Davis, Ryan Zimmerman
SP=Felix Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley
RP-Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valerde, JJ Putz, Jonny Venters, Aaron Crow
By Ray Flowers on Jun 11, 2011
Joey – I agree, having Lawrie and Moustakas in a 10 tm lg is a huge risk. To be honest, at this point at least, having either in a 10 tm lg is a big time risk. It doesn’t look like you have middle or corner infielders, and you only start three outfielders, so there are certainly better options on waivers than two guys who combined don’t have five at-bats in the big leagues. I’d get rid of one, if not both. Your league just isn’t deep enough to have them rostered.
If you do hold on, dump Crowe. There’s no need for you to have him given your top-4 pen arms — there’s no reason with only 10 tms that you should be speculating with relievers.
By Joey on Jun 11, 2011
Thanks Ray! I dropped Crow for Jordan Zimmerman and Moustakas for Helton this morning. My 2B backup options are not stellar (Barney, Lowrie, Craig, Barmes) so I think I will give Lawrie until Ryan Zimmerman comes off the DL (Tuesday?). I’ll have to make a roster move at that time anyway.
I appreciate the advice! Love to hear you on XM Fantasy.
By Dave on Jun 11, 2011
Hi Ray. I need a little help deciding what starting pitchers to keep/pickup. How would you rate Wandy, Scherzer, Zimmerman, Gee, Baker, Nolasco. As always Ray. Thanks for your help !
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
Dave – My ROTW list is just a eek old – http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/03/rotw-rankings-pitchers/
By cameron on Jun 12, 2011
hey ray,
10 tm/roto/keeper
d.span, alex gordon, and kyle lohse for adam jones/josh tomlin. span has had a unimpressive year thusfar and gordon and lohse are both starting to fall off the table. adam jones has shown improved plate discipline as of late and tomlin has shown promise with his cutter despite slight recent struggles. thoughts? thanks.
By Chrissy on Jun 12, 2011
Hey Ray thank you again for your advice! There are a couple of players on the wire that I wanted to ask you if they are worth picking up. Delmon Young,Casey McGehee,and A.Hill. I have a couple of under performing waiver wire adds that I could drop. Also I have J.Lawrie who is killing me! Are any of these guys worth adding A.Casilla, D.Gordan, J.Bourgeois or A. Gonzalez? I wouldn’t have to drop Lowrie either. Thanks again Ray! 10-tean H2H mixed.
Chrissy
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
Cameron – Tomlin is terrible. Ok, that’s not quite fair, but if you’ve been reading my work, or listening to my radio show, you know my feeling on Tomlin. I’ve been predicting this fall for over a month. The truth is Tomlin has no business being a starter in a 10 tm league. Making a deal for a guy like him is a total waste of time. You will always be able to find guys like Tomlin on waivers in a 10 team deal, so this is really a 3 for 1 deal. I wouldn’t do it, even though Jones is a solid person to target.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
Chrissy – no one listened to me with lowrie, so dont feel bad.
Casilla is hot of late, and qualifies at two spots. Little success past two years.
Gordon has tons of speed, but when Furcal comes back in a month, will Gordon remain a starter?
Bour. has tons of speed, but he has little track record, and also not a full time role. Huge interest if he quals. at 2B., but he’s dealing with ankle issue right now.
Gonzalez is a poor option in 10 team leagues at SS.
I dont think any of those guys is a difference maker type in a 10 tm league, so you don’t have to make a move to add any of them.
By the dude on Jun 12, 2011
ray would you trade kemp for tulowitzki or cano? i am stacked and overloaded at 3 OF and 1 utility spot – kemp, crawford, ellsbury, stanton, gardner, francoeur, and ortiz for the utility spot. he already rejected crawford for tulo. i currently have espinosa and barney at 2b and ss. 12 team, h2h, 5×5 but obp instead of avg. thank you very much. feel free to post a video if its easier for you. thanks again.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 12, 2011
The Dude – Kemp for Tulo and Cano = no brainer.
You can’t afford to pass on a top-3 SS and a top-3 2B (at worst) for a top-3 OF. Too much talent to pass on.
Get the duo immediately.
By Rob on Jun 13, 2011
Hi Ray,
I don’t have a question this morning but I was just reading up on the weekend’s comments and I noticed that The Dude was asking if you would trade Kemp for Tulo OR Cano, a one-for-one deal.
Personally, I prefer el duderino since I’m not into the whole brevity thing. But, the dude abides always.
By Erik from Michigan on Jun 13, 2011
Ray, kudos to having best fantasy radio show and website – I’m in 10th place in a 10 team league, with perhaps the worst luck draft of all time (Crawford, Dunn, Thornton, etc…). I’ve made trades to remedy the hitting and am near the top in all offensive categories now, but pitching I’m last in wins, K’s ERA and WHIP. some decent SP’s available streaming, but not enough to get me moved up. Is it still possible I can win, if so, how drastic of a change in roster do I need to make, and most importantly, is it too late to do anything?
thks
Erik
By the dude on Jun 13, 2011
i meant to say would you trade kemp for tulo (stright up) or kemp for cano (straight up)?? i am stacked at OF and UTL and will still have crawford, ellsbury and stanton, gardner and ortiz for my 3 OF and 1 UTL. ray, you are the best. thanks again. i tell everyone to check out the site. i even named my 2nd place team baseballguys!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
The Dude – My bad for reading the question incorrectly.
Ellsbury/Crawford are strong options, but they won’t give you much power. If you add in Garder, then you really aren’t getting much power at all. Moving Kemp then becomes an issue. You have espinosa and barney at 2b, passable but obviously not strong.
So yes, you can make the move for either player who is an elite option at his position. Dont know who you have at SS, so hard to say which guy you should target, but both are solid options. If I was going to move Kemp, I’d ask for a second player to be thrown in as well.
Thanks for naming your team after the site.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
Erik from MI – Thanks for the kudos my friend.
I can’t really answer your question without specifics.
IF you win all pitching cagtegories, you can still win with a poor pitching staff.
You’ll need to finish in top-2 or 3 in two of the categories to do so however.
It’s all about balance though. Check out the categories and see where you can make up the most ground. Maybe it’s in Ks or saves? Remember as well, trading from a strength (offense) to bolster a weakness is fine, but not if you downgrade your strength to the point that it becomes weak.
By Mike on Jun 13, 2011
Ray – I’m about to deal Ogando and G Beckham for the underachiever allstars – Adam Dunn and Dan Uggla. Is this smart?
I could wait for Lawrie to be called up to replace Beckham and keep Ogando. Thoughts? Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
Mike – We dont know how much time Lawrie will need to get back in shape after his injury. Could still be weeks yet – maybe a month even.
I say you do the deal. Uggla/Dunn have proven track records of excellence. Dunn has started to turn it around the past week, and I refuse to believe that Uggla will hit .200 with 15 homers this season. I have concerns about Ogando, and Beckham hasn’t done much, so do the deal.
By Craig N on Jun 13, 2011
What type of bat, NL Only, is Halladay worth???? I’m still someone who feels a bat is worth more than a pitcher always….but I need ks and wins bad….
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
Craig N – NL only Holliday is obviously a top-10 overall hitter. That being the case, you need to get back a lincecum, kershaw, halladay type in a deal.
By brad on Jun 13, 2011
in a trade of pierre for tabata which side do you like better going foward?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 13, 2011
Brad – see http://baseballguys.com/2011/05/30/rotw-rankings-hitters/