Mailbag: June 14, 2011
June 14th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
Here are some answers to some questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
I’m solid in the power categories but need steals and runs. Should I trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury?
– @mushinske
Clearly you’ve got a deal here that would meet your needs.
Ellsbury has been his old dynamic force this season as his body is finally healthy. Jacoby has easily been a top-10 overall performer given his 5×5 line (.318-7-33-49-24), pretty much the same situation that existed in his last two healthy seasons of 2008 and 2009 (his 2011 totals are projections).
2008: .280-9-47-98-50
2009: .301-8-60-94-70
2011: .318-17-83-124-60
He won’t hit 17 homers this season, it’s not likely at least given that his current HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent (the mark was 7.0 and 4.6 percent in 2008-09). He’s also striking out more than ever before with a 17.0 percent whiff rate (career 13.6 percent) and it’s hard to fathom that he will be able to keep up his current LD-rate (25.5 percent) and BABIP (.362). Still, as long as he stays healthy it’s not difficult at all to envision him matching his level of performance from 2008-09.
Howard is well on his way to another 30 homer, 100 RBI season with 13 bombs and 53 RBI in 65 games. Howard has gone 30-100 each of this five full seasons in the big leagues, so it doesn’t take much analysis to suggest another such season appears to be in the cards. On the negative tip though, Howard has 11 steals in his career and hasn’t hit .280 since 2006. In the land of titans, that being the first base position, Howard is always a fine option, but his production doesn’t stand out if he is hitting 35 homers with 120 RBI versus the level of production he offered from from 2006-09 (4-straight years of 45-136).
Given your needs I give you my blessing to consummate this deal, though I wont be giving you a 20.5 carat ring like Kris Humphries did when he popped the question to Kim Kardashian.
Is there any way I should drop Yunel Escobar for J.J. Hardy who’s been heating up lately?
– @mattromeo
Escobar has battled the injury monster a couple of times this year, but he’s appeared in 61 of 66 games for the Blue Jays as he has re-established himself as a bona fide big league hitter after last years el floppo (.256-4-35). He’s already hit more homers this season than last, he has seven, and his total of 24 RBI is just 11 behind his putrid total from last season. Escobar was hitting .300 a few weeks back but he’s slumped to .129 in 31 June at-bats. Still, he’s third at the position with a .360 OBP and his 38 runs place him sixth, and he’s on pace (I know how everyone loves “pace” talk) to end the year with a line that looks pretty similar to what he has done in the past.
2008: .288-10-60-71-2
2009: .299-14-76-89-5
2011: .277-17-58-93-5
Escobar’s currently drawing more walks than ever before (11.4 BB-rate vs. career 9.6 percent), and his line drive rate is a mere 12.8 percent (career 18.1), so it would seem very reasonable for you to expect Escobar to continue along at his current rate of production, especially when he starts lashing a few more line drives.
Hardy hit 50 homers and posted 154 RBI in 2007-08 as one of the most powerful shortstops in the game (he was second at the position in homers and third in RBI). However, a variety of injures hit him the past two seasons as he averaged just 108 games player per year. Over those 216 games he hit just 17 homers while knocking in 85 runs as his production fell off the proverbial map. Injuries have once again limited him this season, he’s appeared in just 36 games, but the old power stroke is back as he has six homers and 19 RBI.
I don’t question the skills with Hardy. His BB/K rate, line drive rate, HR/F, BABIP — all of that is pretty standard fair for him when you compare his current numbers to his career rates. He is hitting a few more fly balls and a few less grounders which has helped aid the power output, but the concern over his health is what eats at me.
I’d keep Escobar. I have more faith in his ability to stay on the field than the oft-injured Hardy.
Scott Baker or Jordan Zimmerman going forward?
– @cstarlodi
It’s like everyone is all of a sudden coming to the conclusion that these two guys are both pretty good hurlers. In March when I released my Top-100 Starting Pitchers I had Baker at 53 and Zimmerman at 54. It may not seem like much now, but back then I got a lot of push back on those rankings. Obviously I’m not surprised that they have had success this season.
I get daily question about Baker, a fact I mentioned this in a piece yesterday titled Pointing Out the Obvious, and I’m not sure why that is. Baker is currently sporting a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, solid numbers but still not career bests (he had a 3.45 ERA in 2008 and in 2008-09 his WHIP was 1.18 and 1.19). He is sporting a career best 8.39 K/9 mark, a batter plus over his career rate (7.19), and though he’s never posted a mark over eight before, he does have the skill to sustain this level. He is walking more batters than ever before (2.47 per nine), but his K/BB ratio is 3.39, just off his 3.37 career rate, because of the strikeout boost. The rest of his pitching line is pretty standard stuff for him which means solid production all-around.
Zimmerman started a bit slowly, especially in the strikeout column, but he has really turned things on his last eight outings during which time he has 47 Ks in 51.2 innings. With only 11 walks in that time his K/BB ratio since the start of May is an excellent 4.27, and check out his ratios – 2.26 ERA an a 0.99 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. His fly ball rate is a bit elevated this season though he’s been able to offset that fact with his HR/FB rate of 2.9 percent. He’s not likely to keep that up given that his career mark is right on the big league average at 9.5 percent, so that ERA could climb a bit, but this is a stable/strong skill set.
So who would I prefer to have on my roster? I’m going to suggest going with the veteran in Baker. Not only do we have a bit more of a track record with him, we also don’t have to worry about his innings pitched total being capped later in the year, a fact that any Zimmerman owner will have to deal with as the Nationals try to limit the workload on their young start who is returning from Tommy John surgery.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: J.J. Hardy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jordan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Scott Baker, Yunel Escobar
By Ricky S on Jun 14, 2011
Ray,
Would you trade Shin-Soo Choo and Jordan Zimmermann for Ryan Zimmerman and Scott Baker? 10 tm H2H 5×5.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 14, 2011
Ricky S – Choo/JorZimm for Baker/RyanZImm
Yes I would do this deal.
I spoke about Baker and Zimm above.
While I like Choo for a rebound ROTW, Zimmerman can be just as good a performer, if not better, because of his position.
By Snows JT on Jun 14, 2011
Who has the better end of the deal?
Cliff Lee, Asdrubal Cabrera, & Carlos Beltran for Ryan Braun & Wandy Rodriguez.
(10 team mixed league.)
By Rob on Jun 15, 2011
Hi Ray,
Would you give Scherzer to receive Weeks? I have pitching to spare and really need a middle infielder. Accompanying Max, my top SPs are Hamels, Gallardo & Shields.
If the Weeks owner won’t do it for Max and asks for one of the other three instead, would you do it? You have Gallardo and Shields very close to Max ROTW – so maybe I should pose it this way: Would you trade Hamels for Weeks if Max won’t cut it?
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 15, 2011
Snows JT – Cabrera isn’t going to keep this up.
http://baseballguys.com/2011/06/09/around-the-diamond-2/
I’m amazed Beltran has done this well, but without his work on the bases, he’s just average.
I’m a big fan of Wandy, and Braun is a top-5 guy. Get those two.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 15, 2011
Rob – If you have a need up the middle, Weeks is a great target. If he can just stay healthy, he should remain very productive. I’d do the deal for Scherzer if you could. Hamels would be the one that I’d try my hardest to hold on to out of those four arms.
By IceholeTour on Jun 16, 2011
Gotta replace Barney at MI and I missed out on Ackely. Its ugly out there..Help!
Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Bill Hall
Daniel Murphy
Omar Infante
By Brad on Jun 16, 2011
Was offered longoria and lackey or danks for Lind and Oswalt not strong at third but I have konerko at first let me know your thoughts
Thanks
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Icehole – You got that right, it is ugly.
Nishioka – Don’t really know what to expect. We’ve seen guys succeed and fail from Japan with no real understanding of which camp the guys will fall into.
Hall – http://www.rotoinfo.com/blog/injuries-dominating-the-news.html
Murphy – He’s hitting .373 the last 28 days.
Infante – His BABIP is too low given his LD rate, so his average should improve.
I’d take a shot on Murphy.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Brad – Get Longoria/Danks for Lind/Oswalt
Seems like a fair deal based on talent, but the performance train clearly falls to the second group.
Do you have a corner infield spot? If you have Konerko at 1B adding Lind isn’t a necessity.
By Joel on Jun 16, 2011
Ray:
In my 6×6 h2h league I can trade Mike Stanton and CJ Wilson and get Hamilton and Haren.
NOT keeper. Our 6×6 categories are:
HR avg. OPS R RBI SB
ERA WHIP Wins Ks SVs and HRs allowed
What do u think?
By brad on Jun 16, 2011
I am getting Longoria and Danks and giving Lind and Oswalt.
I have Konerko and Mcgehee at my corner spots.
Lind has been on fire I would hope the best player in the deal is Longoria and that is enough to make the trade going foward. If you think Lind Oswalt will hold up and I am not going to get the better upside in ther deal I wont do it. Im trying to get more production offensively. I know I loose on the pitching.
By brad on Jun 16, 2011
According to you hitters chart you have Longoria as the second best 3 rd baseman going foward. You have LInd as the 16th best 1 st baseman. I thought it helps me offensively giving oswalt as the way to get Longoria . Is this to much to give?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Brad – I want to believe that Longoria will return to being the elite hitter he is – like Dunn, HanRam, Rios etc. – but it’s just not happening. I think it will turn around though.
Still not clear from your response if you have a corner infield spot – I know you have a 1B and 3B, but do you have a CI as well?
As for my rankings of players, it was based on the players health at the time – Lind was on the DL with back woes and kept having setbacks. Plus, dont forget, that there are a ton of hitters at first that are elite level performers and just a few at third. That means that the #10 1B might produce numbers as good as the #5 3B.
By brad on Jun 16, 2011
ok well I made the trade but im concerned now that your not impressed with Longoria. I do think Lind is red hot but I guess he will go 30-100 easy I thought Longoria is an elite talent and that paying oswalt for him was worth it I have all my postions covered I just thought you always get the best player in the deal. Should have traded oswalt for auckley and pennington. ok next time.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Brad – I’m not anti Longoria. As you stated, he’s right near the top in my rankings.
Longoria has upped the BB rate, lowered the K rate.
His OBP is same as always.
His BABIP is nearly .060 points down even though his LD-rate is pretty much normal.
He IS an elite talent.
Also, I still don’t think Lind goes 30-100 “easy.” We got a long way to go there.
Pretty certain he isn’t going to keep his HR/F rate over 23 percent – he’s only got one year above 13.3 percent.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Joel – Hamilton is the better hitter in this setup. Stanon’s OPS is likely to be .100 points down. Haren is also a better pitcher than Wilson.
I think you should do that deal.
By brad on Jun 16, 2011
was offered hanley Rameriz and francour for weeks and rasmas
do you think this is good trade is Hanley gonna have huge second half?
By Phil on Jun 16, 2011
Ray I have an embarrassing wealth of riches thanks to your advice. Matt Holliday is coming off the DL and I need to cut somebody. My pitching is rock solid so I’m not touching that. I’m probably going to drop Matt Joyce because I am stacked in the outfield but that seems crazy on paper. To me Figgins seems the better keep for his 2B/3B eligibility and speed even though he is REALLY struggling. It seems insane but I’m thinking Joyce is a backup who is already starting to regress and Figgins is a backup who is a career .280 hitter with SB potential. Am I nuts? And no, this is not an 8 team league
I’ve floated some trades but no one has bit.
C Brian McCann
1B Paul Konerko
2B Howie Kendrick
3B Mark Reynolds
SS Stephen Drew
OF Ryan Braun
OF Andrew McCutchen
OF Nelson Cruz
UT Eric Hosmer
BN Matt Joyce
BN Chone Figgins
BN Rajai Davis
DL Matt Holliday
By Joel on Jun 16, 2011
Hey ray -
I just want to thank you for all ur great advice. This site and Fantasy Drive are “must starts” in Fantasy BB!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
Joel – You got it buddy. I try my best to help out when I can and sprinkle in some humor and fun in the midst of helping people out with their squads.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
Phil – First off, you can’t drop Joyce. I agree with you on the regression, but there has to be someone in your league who is gonna bite if you offer him up for a deal. In fact, multiple teams likely will.
Figgins isn’t walking any more, but he does have a career best K-rate. His BABIP is .100 below his career rate. Even if there is some regression with age, that’s obviously not enough to explain this. I think he rebounds as well, and the position elig is nice, but that’s predicated on the fact that the Mariners will continue to play him every day, and with each passing day of struggles, that lessons.
By Phil on Jun 18, 2011
No one bit on Joyce but I came to my senses and dropped Figgins. Holliday is back in my lineup raking and Joyce is still on the trading block. If no one makes an offer then he’s there when I need him. My temporary insanity has passed. As always thanks for the advice.