What Goes Up, Must Come Down
June 15th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
I’ve tried to explain how in the world that Jose Bautista is doing what he’s doing, an I’ve pretty much come up craps. In Take a Swing, Jeff Passan takes his hacks.
I don’t remember the last time I did this, but I’m going to quote myself (how narcisitic is that?). Here’s a Twitter post of mine from earlier today. “Did you listen to me about Trevor Cahill? Last five starts: 0-4, 7.52 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 0.71 K/BB.” Well did you listen and downgrade him when I told you to or did you blindly push forward irrespecitve of my advice?
Carlos Carrasco has five wins in his last six outings and over his last two efforts, spanning 15.1 innings, he’s held the Twins and the Yankees off the scoreboard. All of a sudden everyone is interested in the Indians’ hurler. Carrasco, a former Phillies’ minor league standout, has done a good job limiting the walks at less than three per nine innings. However, his K-rate is barely over 5.50, and that portends trouble unless you are able to generate a lot of ground balls. Fortunately Carlos does a good job of inducing grounders with a 51.4 percent career GB mark. What I see here is a solid AL-only arm, but one that would be a stretch in a 15 team mixed league. When he’s got the ground balls flowing he can pitch very well, but the lack of strikeouts means he isn’t going to be someone who makes a true impact in the fantasy game.
I’m still fielding questions about Josh Collmenter. Please tell me you aren’t one of the people asking if you’re in a mixed league. Collmenter has gotten by to this point with a boatload of luck, batters are having a hard time picking up his release point, but the truth of the matter is that Josh simply isn’t a very good pitcher. I know he has a 1.86 ERA an a 0.86 WHIP through 14 games which makes me look stupid, but scouts will tell you that he doesn’t own a single pitch that grades out as better than big league average. He doesn’t strike anyone out (5.74 per nine), doesn’t get any grounders (40 percent of batted balls), and has been one lucky devil with a .205 BABIP. He might end up with passable numbers by the time the season is over, but even if that’s the case there is a ton of regression coming down the pipe.
Alcides Escobar has hit .500 during his seven game hitting streak. He’s still hitting just .235 on the year, but he might be a person of interest in deep mixed leagues who use a middle infielder because in addition to all the hits of late he’s also started to run again with four steals in nine games. The key to that is simple – he’s finally getting on base. The owner of just 10 walks this season, Escobar owns a pathetic .267 OBP. You can’t steal a bag if you can’t get on base.
Everyone in the world seems to think that Jason Heyward is a wussy, and that he has lost all his talent and value. I don’t get that at all. Oh he might be a wussy or diva-like in not wanting to play when he isn’t 100 percent physically, but the skills are still elite (as an aside, he’s traveling to Atlanta to have his shoulder looked at and he could be back in action for the Braves very quickly). His is an example of people simply panicking because they aren’t seeing it on the field. I’m telling you, the young man still owns Hall of Fame talent, still lashes liners harder than just about any person on the planet, and should still be a building block if you’re in a keeper league. I’d bet that in two years you’ll have forgotten all about his dismal first half in 2011.
Josh Johnson was transferred to the 60 day DL. That means the Marlins’ ace will be out of action until at least July 16th. Johnson has yet to throw off the mound since hitting the DL with his shoulder woes, but the team remains confident that he will be ready to go as soon as he’s eligible. When injured he left behind some of the best numbers in the game (1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 56 Ks in 60.1 IP), but the guy is probably the riskiest top-10 hurler in the game.
Joakim Soria has saves in three straight outings since he returned to the closers role for the Royals. He also picked up a win in his outing previous to the saves run, and he is unscored upon in his last six outings. All is right in the world yet again.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alcides Escobar, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Heyward, Joakim Soria, Jose Bautista, Josh Collmenter, Josh Johnson, Trevor Cahill
By Jimbo on Jun 16, 2011
Hi Ray! I’m still hurtin’ at 3B. Freese to return in about a month but as he probably will be rested 3+ times a week I believe I need a suitable back up. Ian Stewart was snatched by outrageous bid so I picked up Chris Nelson who I’m positive on as possible Aviles-like replacement. Not sure what happens to him when Stewart comes up but I hope Nelson sticks around for a while. However, I’m also considering putting my own outrageous bid and going all in for Dayan Viciedo. I feel good about it but may be desperate at this point. I know it’s a gamble but one I’m willing to pay for. Therefore, Nelson or Viciedo or Nelson and Viciedo but dump aging D. Lee @ 1B and gamble that Goldschmidt is up pre-All Star break. Other FA 1B are worse but 1B and 3B are both tight so far this year in terms of what’s left in my league. Your input is truly appreciated. 20 teams, risks must be taken to gain any little edge as you know.
By cameron on Jun 16, 2011
hey ray,
first off thanks for all your insight and your help for me personally by answering my many questions. but anyways just thought i’d pick your brain.. curious as to if you have heard any rumors swirling around about a potential Mike Trout callup anytime soon? granted he’s only in AA, and the angels have constantly said how they want him to grow first and don’t want to rush him, but i’ve read some reports recently saying the angels are considering him. i was wondering how accurate this was or what you have heard? thanks ray. i want to be the first to pounce on him in my keeper league haha
By Jonathan on Jun 16, 2011
Ray,
Do you think it is possible for Dustin Ackley to out perform a player like Gordon Beckham the rest of the season?
By Benny on Jun 16, 2011
Ray – What do you think about Mike Morse? Is he is power legit and can he keep it up for not only the rest of the year, but in future seasons as well? He’s like a mini Bautista out of nowhere..
By Rob on Jun 16, 2011
Hi Ray,
Wright was just dropped to waivers. Regardless of who I have at 3b and CI (Bautista and Butler), I have to consider making a play for Wright, right? I’d have to drop Cahill or Gee. Gee’s pitching so well as of late and Cahill not so well with no run support that I’m actually considering keeping Gee here. What do you think of him moving forward now that we’ve seen more of his A-game? How much of a “must come down” candidate is Gee and is Cahill going to get better?
A few weeks ago this would have been a no brainer…and maybe it still is.
Given all this info, and what we know about Wright’s expected return around the All-Star break, is he worth my one DL spot? I’d have to drop Napoli. How sure are you of Wright’s ability to bounce back from this injury?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Jonathan – I totally think it’s possible that Ackley outperforms Beckham the rest of the way. Guess you didnt see my ROTW rankings eh?
http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ROTW-HIT-May30-2011-BBGuys5.pdf
By Ricky on Jun 16, 2011
Ray,
10 tm 5×5 H2H league. I picked up Moustakas and Rizzo and have them both sitting on my bench. In order to make room to activate Heyward from the DL, I have to either drop Moustakas, Rizzo or Venters…..or make a trade. That being said, would you trade Moustakas and Carlos Santana for Miguel Montero. Its only a 10 tm league and its not a keeper. I know you like Montero better, but is this too much to give?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Jimbo – Viciedo is likely to be called up soon, but he’ll likely be used in the OF. Does he already qualify at 3B in your lg? He still has holes in his swing, and rarely takes a walk, so dont expect to get all the production he’s had in the minors when he is called up.
Goldschmidt has a huge bat, but youngsters are notoriously difficult to predict in their first go round. Gold has a great bat, and likely will be a star one day, just don’t know how he will do when the Dbacks call him up in potentially short order.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Cameron – I don’t have any inside info on Trout. I’ve read the same reports you referenced, and I think the Angels will do the smart thing and remain patient. It’s not just that Trout has only 57 games above Single-A = think about that, he has a third of a season above A-ball = there’s also the fact that the guy can’t even legally buy a beer.
I wouldn’t expect to see him before Sept.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Benny – First off it’s not out of nowhere for Morse. He blasted eight homers in spring training and had hit 21 homers in his first 618 at-bats in the bigs.
Second, there is only one Bautista, so don’t go thinking Morse is the “next Bautista.” The just is NOT going to happen.
Third, Morse will see his average come down as he isn’t likely to sustain his .360 BABIP.
Fourth, Morse also strikes out a quarter of the time and has a hideous 0.20 BB/K mark. Sooner or later that catches up to you.
I hate using numbers, but if I was forced to I would say that Morse is .280-30-90 type of hitter so he won’t keep up his current pace much longer.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Rob – I assume you haven’t been reading my writings, or listening to the radio show, where I’ve been telling people to sell Cahill for months? He has no chance of repeating his efforts from last season – been saying that since, well, last season. He’s a solid arm who gets a ton of grounders, but he was artificially good last year.
Gee doesn’t own the skills to keep up what he is doing. He’s totally locked in right now, so there is no telling how long he will be able to keep this up, but his stuff/skills don’t support what he is doing.
You have to add Wright in my opinion. I’d hold on to Napoli and dump Cahill to add Wright. OR – trade Cahill and Gee to get back one upper level arm.
By Rob on Jun 16, 2011
I’m hurt, Ray. I listen to the drive and read BBG daily. I’m just kicking myself for not selling high on Cahill and want to believe that he’s going to reclaim some of what he had earlier in the year…maybe I’m just a hopeless romantic.
I’m starting talks with someone for a deal for Halladay. Does a Wandy/Cahill/Gee package get the job done or do I need to offer Shields/Gee? Giving up too much? I’m stocked up on hurlers: Hamels, Gallardo, Shields, Nolasco, Kennedy, Gio, Wandy, Cahill, Gee. Had Scherzer but just traded him for Weeks (thanks for the advice yesterday).
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Rob – Don’t think it’s gonna happen with Cahill. That WHIP of 1.38 seems about right, and his 3.42 ERA is likely to rise a bit more as well.
I don’t know who in their right mind would accept Cahill/Gee/Wandy for Halladay. You can likely find guys on waivers to give similar production to Cahill/Gee ROTW.
If you could do Shields/Gee for Halladay do it. But I doubt that will be accepted either.
By Ryan on Jun 16, 2011
Ray- I’m in an NL only auction keeper league (5X5, $260, currently 5 keepers per team which may increase next year to 6, $4 increase in salary for a player you keep): barring anything unforeseen I will be keeping Braun ($23 next year) and Wainwright ($5 next year). If you could please pick out another 4 keepers for me out of the following group (so I can evaluate which of the others I might want to deal to improve my team for this year): Dee Gordon ($5 next year); Charlie Blackmon ($5 next year), Pedro Alvarez ($9 next year); Hanley ($30 next year); Ian Kennedy ($7 next year); Rubby De La Rosa ($5 next year); Brandon Belt ($5 next year); Collin Cowgill and Brad Peacock (both on my farm roster and both at $1 next year assuming that each is still treated as a “rookie” under MLB rules). Thanks for your help.
By Rob on Jun 16, 2011
I’m set to drop Cahill to pick up Wright off waivers. Now, I’ll have Wright and Napoli for one DL spot. I’m working on a trade that would give me Wieters and Carpenter and I’d give up Shields. Good value for Shields? With Wieters, I’d drop Napoli and move Wright to the DL and pick up an arm to replace Cahill. Make sense in your book? The other guy has R. Martin too and is dying for pitching.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Ryan – Let’s see here.
Wainwright ($5) and Braun (23) are great value.
1- I’m gonna say keep Hanley (30) too. Hopefully you dont have to submit your list right now so we have time to make sure Hanley is “back”, but if he performs well $30 is a fair price, especially since you are saving like $15 bucks on Braun
2- Alvarez ($9). I know he has been dreadful, and hurt, but the guy still is a 30-100 bat waiting to happen. With all the trouble at third base this year, that’s even more valuable moving forward.
It then gets tricky.
Kennedy is a great value at $7 – do people protect hurlers in this league? I’m leery of protecting him here.
Honestly, you can’t answer this question right now. All of the guys you have mentioned are huge talents, but to this point we have scant data on any of them. Without the rest of the season to judge them on I’d say Gordon and Blackmon, but I want to see more.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Rob – Carpenter and Wieters is decent for Shields, but I’m not a huge fan of dropping Napoli.