Better Than You Thought
June 16th, 2011 | by Ray Flowers |
It’s sunny outside, congressman Anthony Wiener is finally resigning over “Weiner-gate”, and the San Francisco Giants are in first place. All is right in the world. Well not quite, but I’m gonna try to stay positive today in the face of the horrendous actions of those people in Vancouver who decided to act like Neanderthals last night after the Canucks fell to the Bruins in the Stanley Cup finals.
Chad Billingsley hit a new low last night allowing seven runs while making it through only four innings. That pathetic effort came on the heels of a 4.2 innings, six run outing on June 10th. Moreover, Chad has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts to drive his ERA up to 4.65 and his WHIP to 1.52. If he didn’t have his name, he’d likely be on a whole lot of waiver-wire’s this morning. That’s being positive? Wait, it gets better, I promise.
Should you dump him Billingsley because of his recent stretch of failure? I say no. The easiest way to understand why I say that is to look at Billingsley’s xFIP (figured the same way as ERA, it takes into account those factors that are directly in the pitcher’s control while normalizing for a league average home run rate).
2008: 3.58
2009: 3.99
2010: 3.67
2011: 3.65
Billingsley is pitching the same as he always does, it’s just not showing up in the results. If you don’t believe xFIP, look at these numbers.
2011: 2.11 K/BB, 1.44 GB/FB, 0.61 HR/9
Career: 2.10 K/BB, 1.37 GB/FB, 0.66 HR/9
I’m not saying if you own him you should continue to run him out there right now as he is getting pounded, but hold fast if you can. This obviously means Chad is a wonderful hurler to try and buy low on if you’re looking to bolster your pitching staff.
How the mighty have fallen. Did you see that the Angels released Scott Kazmir yesterday? At one time one of the brightest left-handed starters in baseball Kazmir, who won 13 games with a 3.48 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 2007, allowed 30 runs in 15.1 innings in the minors this season leading to the easy decision made by the Angels. It appears that his devastating slider simply ruined his arm. As a rookie his average fastball was 93.7 mph and last year it registered a mere 90.5 mph. His big league career could be over at age 27. So much for staying positive today like I said I would at the top of the piece.
Joe Mauer should be back in action on Friday for the struggling Twins. If you own him get him immediately back into your lineup. At the same time, you’d best hold on to whichever catcher you’ve been riding in his absence since I’m far from convinced that he’ll be able to play nearly every day.
Jorge Posada has been tearing it up the last two weeks hitting .444 over 36 at-bats. However, he didn’t hit a homer in that stretch and he’s still hitting only .227 on the season.
Welcome to the party Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies’ shortstop has two bombs, six RBI and four runs scored in his last three outings. There’s no way around the position that he has been a disappointment at time this year, but even so he’s still on pace to steal more than 30 bases, to score more than 90 times and to hit 14 homers with 64 RBI. Those are still pretty darn solid numbers for a shortstop aren’t they?
Speaking of disappointing shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki is probably second on the list behind Hanley Ramirez when you consider what preseason expectations were. Bit should he be? Tulo is on pace for 31 homers, 110 RBI and 14 steals, so don’t feel too sorry for those who took him in the first round this season.
The last 30 days… Dan Uggla has hit .133, B.J. Upton .136 and Adan Dunn .156. Think of how bad your team would currently be performing you had rostered all three of those guys this draft season. The crazy thing is, if I walked away from the draft table with those three I’d have been pumped. Guess that’s why they play the games.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam Dunn, B.J. Upton, Chad Billingsley, Dan Uggla, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Scott Kazmir, Troy Tulowitzki
By Fred on Jun 16, 2011
So will the headlines of the NY Daily News read “Weiner’s Out!” That’ll sell a few papers.
To baseball…Your thoughts on Posada during the next couple of weeks during Interleague play. In a league requiring 2 starting C adn POsada is my #2C. I’d hate to have to drop him, or drop anyther player to pick up an AJ or Ruiz.
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Fred – Nice tagline. You should be in the newspaper biz.
Posada is hot of late as I mentioned, so I would have to think they will get him some starts here and there. However, he is only the third string catcher right now if Russell Martin is healthy.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2011/06/16/2011-06-16_jorge_can_catch_on.html
It’s going to be tough to count on him much during interleague play, but as a 2nd catcher, he shouldn’t be dropped.
By Fred on Jun 16, 2011
Thanks Ray. BTW if it isn’t working out with Mila, Huma Weiner may soon be hitting the open market and she is nothing to sneeze at…
By Fred on Jun 16, 2011
Ray,
Any thoughts on PT for Blackmon and what his production in to Rox lineup may be ROS?
By Ray Flowers on Jun 16, 2011
Fred – we gotta get baseball folks to use ROTW for Rest of the Way and not ROS.
Fowler will stay in the minors to work on his stroke. When he regains it, and I can’t think that will take too long, the club will have too many outfield options meaning they’ll likely have to make a deal.
Blackmon is on fire right now, so obviously he isn’t coming out of the lineup at any point soon. He has good plate discipline and speed, so there are a lot of reasons to believe he will continue to have success this year. Still, he’s a 30 SB guy at the top end, so don’t expect him to keep running like this.
By Nick on Jun 16, 2011
Would you trade Pujols and Rajai Davis for Verlander and Stubbs?
By JB on Jun 16, 2011
Ray: Nolasco just hit waivers in my league. You have him ranked 20 ROTW. With all of the problems the Marlins are having, would you change your ranking? I’ll be dropping Cahill, so I assume this is a no-brainer?
Also, ROTW for 3B and UT, I need to pick between Moustakas, Reynolds and Dunn. Reynolds seems to be moving in the right direction, and I’m thinking Moustakas has to produce more than Dunn, unless Dunn does a 180 very soon. Thoughts?
By wesley on Jun 16, 2011
im in a 10 team roto league and we have 2 util spots. Heres my question? i have butler and Gardner there. Would you drop these guys for any of these FA Delmon young, t.hunter,v.wells, bay swisher, or pagan, or maybe drop Cahill or Lewis. thanks ray
By Paul on Jun 16, 2011
Hit it on the head there Ray.
That’s why they/we the fantasy players play.
A lot has changed since April!
By Bill on Jun 17, 2011
Ray, I have been offered Chad Billingsley for Andre Ethier. What do you think?? Your recent article mentioned not to give up on Billingsley.
By Brad on Jun 17, 2011
Ray,
I do have Uggla, BJ Upton & Adam Dunn on the same team. I am at the bottom on batting avg and towards the bottom in the other hitting categories, but I have mangaged to stay afloat with my pitching staff. I am a huge Phillies fan and drafted the Big 4 plus a few otehr studs. I am at the top in all pitching categories and I am currently wavering between 2nd & 3rd place. The way I see it, the bats can only get better from here, and I am on my way to a championship!!!
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
Bill – I don’t want to give up on Billingsley, and as the article said, he’s a great guy to target to pick up on the cheap.
I’m unclear based on your working of the question.
I want Ethier over Billingsley, by a lot. So as long as you end up with the OFer, you’re in great shape.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
Wesley – Gardner is hitting .425 in May and .341 over his last 43 games with 10 steals. How can you drop that?
Butler is hitting .329 with 13 RBI and 11 runs scored the last two weeks. How can you drop that?
You can’t drop either of those two to add anyone you listed, and I don’t know your team, but adding Pagan, Swisher or Wells may not be a bad idea depending on how your roster plays out.
By Rob on Jun 17, 2011
Hi Ray,
Activating Mauer and need to drop one of the following guys (5×5 category H2H mixed 10 team):
R. Davis
I. Desmond
A. Gordon
Davis and Desmond appear to be the same player this season, but Davis has more upside. Gordon seems to be the better all around guy while Davis and Desmond are killing my avg and only producing steals (and where did their SB go recently anyway?).
Would you drop Desmond? I have Wieters too and I’ll be looking to trade him or Mauer once we see if Mauer’s truly back.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
JB – Drop Cahill add Nolasco. As you said, a no brainer.
How many teams in your league? Do you use a corner infielder?
I ask because I’d find it hard to say drop Dunn or Reynolds in favor of Moustakas. What I would do would be to parlay Moustakas into another player. Someone might overpay for a rookie who could be a future star.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
Nick – Without knowing your roster it’s hard to say.
Straight up I’d prefer Pujols over Verlander and Stubbs over Davis.
Do you have other options at first? How strong is your pitching staff?
By wesley on Jun 17, 2011
Well ray. My outfielders are holliday, crawford and choo. My bench is polanco but I have a.ram and phillips and there both injury prone. So I don’t want to drop polanco. How about cahill or colby lewis and grab pagan, he’s the best 1 I think that would make a impact
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
Wesley – I don’t have a huge issue with dropping Cahill – he’s totally lost right now. Pagan has had a solid June, but if you make the move realize that expecting Pagan to repeat last years levels, per at-bat, is likely asking too much.
By Rob on Jun 17, 2011
Hi Ray,
So what do you think of dropping Desmond (see above)? Is he worth keeping in a 10 team? Is he more than a one category guy? When I trade away Mauer or Wieters I’ll be looking to get a well rounded speedster.
By Ray Flowers on Jun 17, 2011
Rob – According to CBS, Demsond is the 12th best SS right now. In my ROTW rankings I had him at #15.
http://baseballguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ROTW-HIT-May30-2011-BBGuys5.pdf
I wouldn’t be upset if you dropped him in a 10 team league, especially since he has only two steals in his last 14 games.